Rutgers Next
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I hope it is an easy win for the Boilers that is over by halftime.
Agree, the #1 team in the land should end these wantabees by the half.
Will they? If they truly play like the #1 team, yes. If not, well....
This will be a dog fight IMO. Rutgers is top 5 on KenPom defensive efficiency. Their grinding physical style is case point 1B to Wisconsin's 1A on why B1G conference arm wrestling matches don't overall prepare teams for success in the tournament. It will be interesting to see how the officials call it, but they typically let a lot of things go once the conference season starts.
Purdue by 5, but I hope the crowd is alive early unlike Wisconsin when the student section was out last year. Wish the Minny game was while they were on break.
Purdue by 5, but I hope the crowd is alive early unlike Wisconsin when the student section was out last year. Wish the Minny game was while they were on break.
I'm excited to a watch a meaningful game.
It's been 3 weeks since Purdue played a team that had any chance at winning.
That won't be the case the rest of the year. Should be fun!
It's been 3 weeks since Purdue played a team that had any chance at winning.
That won't be the case the rest of the year. Should be fun!
It won't have the same crowd noise without the students and be something between home and neutral court. Each possesion is now weighted more as are getting to the line AND making them...along with turnovers. Matt certainly wants to use Zach in the half court and take good shots to set the D, but I can see him pushing the ball...probing and trying to steal a few points as well as "some" transition 3s but missing those if it happened are big negatives in that you get nothing out of it. It all gets tougher now...
If Purdue handles the boards well it will go a long way to getting to the line and overall scoring. So many "IFs" other than an expected physical battle where Rutgers is a bit more one on one on O and looking for lobs to Omoruyi and physical on D through a lot of effort. Pickel has done a very good job of establishing solid D with his bigs in particular and D over all...not so good on the O end...
They moved the time of this game to not coincide with the football game.
This will be a dogfight because of their physical nature of defense. The question will be how the refs call the game when they are eventually pulling on Edey.
Not sure how to define 'playing like the #1 team' this year, but unless Purdue starts consistently knocking down open threes I don't think they'll run away with many games on their remaining schedule.
On the flip side, I think that's true for a lot of the top teams nationally this year. UConn just lost by double digits to a Xavier team with essentially the same NET rating as Rutgers.
It's the Big...not sure Purdue is going to run away from a lot of teams even if hitting the 3 ball. Purdue has to focus on doing what it can which is playing smart on O and D, playing hard and being quick, but not hurrying. Get the 50-50 balls, hit the boards, stay focused and not turn it over and go through the routine and hit the FTs. All perimeter shooting can be enhanced by a lot of little things on O, but hitting them is not a given and so Purdue needs great effort and focus on what it can do and let the chips fall how they will...and I know you know that. That said I do hope a lot of players have shot the ball over Christmas "at game speed conditions."
Absolutely, I agree with all of that.
Complete speculation, but with 18 regular season games left, if Purdue continues to play hard and do all the little things but continues to struggle mightily shooting the three, I'd expect something like the following:
- No blowout wins
- 4 comfortable wins (by 10+ points)
- 6 to 8 competitive wins
- 6 to 8 losses
If Purdue starts shooting the three at a 35% + clip as a team with a couple of guys pushing 40% I'd hope for results more in line with this:
- 3 blowout wins
- 5 comfortable wins (by 10+ points)
- 5 to 7 competitive wins
- 3 to 5 losses
So if they don't shoot the ball well the best case scenario, IMO, is that they still win a share of the BT, but are looking at somewhere in the vicinity of a four seed in the NCAAT. Worst case they finish top four in the BT and end up a six seed in the NCAAT.
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What you describe as "the Rutgers' offense" is more so the 2021-2022 team. They have players who can score but gave way to Harper and Baker. This is a more balanced attack. If there is one thing that is different and hasn't been answered is who is the closer at the end of the game.
Overall, the uptick in the quality of defense has made people think the offense is not good. The defense is the best it's ever been under Pikiell, but so is the overall play of the offense. The offense has moved away from one-on-man because the personnel is different. This team is built more around sharing the ball. Rutgers doesn't rely on the 3ball because that's not their strength, except for transfer Cam Spencer, who shoots around 40%. Rutgers gets many of their points in transition, either through trapping to force turnovers or fastbreaks off the rebound.
Whoa, 6 to 8 losses? That means we will lose some home games, or lose all away games
Are you serious?
Even at 30% clip for 3's may be serviceable for pulling out wins because of rebounding.
This team may lose 2 to 3 games the rest of the way, if at all.
Definitely capable of winning it out. I would say at 40% chance.
My Boiler shades may be darker than yours..
Boiler Up!!
Winning it out? Those are the darkest Boiler shades in the United States lol. I love the optimism but Purdue isn’t winning out, likely 5–6 loses at a minimum.
If PU can start making the 3 ball PU is gonna be a tough out for any team in the country! IMO
Going to be a good one! Rutgers definitely could use a resume win of this caliber. They will come out firing
5-6 losses minimum?
Wouldn't that be par with the last year's team?
Plus, that may practically mean that the goals of this year are not attainable.
Hard to believe that this team will lose that many games in the league play.
BIG this year seemed to be not as good as last year.
Will see this team's true color this week.
Boiler Up!
This is a tough Rutgers team and they will be fired up and confident, trying to knock Purdue out of the #1 ranking for the second year in the row. That said, Purdue is not going to take Rutgers lightly after what happened last year and, unlike last season, this Purdue team does enough things well that it can win, even when it is struggling to shoot. I like Purdue’s chances at home.
FWIW, UConn only lost by double digits based on the final score. The game was back and forth the whole way. Hurley got T'd up late and then Xavier hit FTs to finish it off. Highly competitive game.
Spread opened at -7 and has moved to 7.5 already at my house. Thought it would be 9-10.
Gotta bring it to the zero sum.. TIC
No denying in my pitch black Purdue shades, for sure.
Boiler Up!!
I have not watched them very long this year, but yes my version of Rutgers offense has been a lot of individual play off the dribble and less off the pass. If that is not true this year, then as you say...that was in the past. Do you believe a lot of their offense comes off the dribble or off the pass? Do they have similar on ball screens as off ball screens in numbers? The offense I describe has been since Pikel has been there...with maybe this year an exclusion. The guards have always wanted to attack the FT line area off the dribble for all the years I can recall. If the offense is pass, cut and a lot of off ball action and little one on one dribble to the FT line area this year...then yes it is different. It has been the one on one play by the guards primarily (Harper some) that have given Purdue fits over the years...even the years Purdue won. Sure Rutgers will pass to an open man and lob to Omoruyi, but the bread and butter when Rutgers needed a basket was the guards one on one play in the FT line extended and lane generally.
I would think Purdue will be in pretty good shape if the Rutger guards play little one on one in attacking the lane and the game doesn't turn into a wrestling match. Rutgers and all Big teams will be tough outs no matter where they play
I'm a bit more optimistic and think Purdue has less that 6-8 losses and say that without looking at the schedule which may be the difference in our numbers. My expectations for Purdue are to make the other team shoot just as poorly from the arc as Purdue. Why should other teams shoot better than Purdue? I don't see why the shooting cannot be a wash at worst. If shooting is effected by defense in some fashion, why can't Purdue make other teams shoot in similar fashion behind the arc? Is it because Purdue is more interested in keeping the ball out of the lane (which also affects the 3 ball)? Hitting the 3 ball would make things a heck of a lot easier, but you can't count on that, but you can do things every game that negate the shots value to some degree. My fear is more human nature than hitting the three ball.
I fear Purdue gets a bit lax mentally and physically on everything it can control while another team is sharper and hitting shots (which can be a bye product of being sharp)...but if Purdue is sharp every game in what it can control, Purdue has enough talent and depth that it should make another team's legs a bit weak as the game goes on. The question is how many points difference in a good 3 ball game and a bad 3 ball game when 20 shots are taken. I wonder if 6 point differential is the net effect on the 3 ball and then wonder if 6 pts can be exceeded in the things Purdue can control and if not six then 8 or 10? All make doing what you can do to affect the game much more important than if you are hitting the 3 ball, but it can be done. It is when Purdue doesn't do what it can that the 3 point shooting looms so large. Matt may ask, "Who are you when the shots aren't falling?"
Lets hope Purdue doesn't shoot too many 3 balls, but is efficient when it does shoot them and all of us lower our heart rates?
I love this team but yes, if they don't shoot better from deep I'd expect them to drop at least one game at home. Barring injuries, I'd peg 10-8 over the next 18 as a worst case scenario, but could see 7-2 at home and 3-6 on the road (counting PSU in Philly as an away game). I'd deem 8-1 and 4-5 more likely.
Mathematically, the odds of this team running the table are far, far lower than 40%, but if they can start consistently hitting open threes I don't think there's much of a ceiling on how good this team can be.
They will...no question be a very tough out! It has been said that the mental to physical is 4:1. I don't know what the ratio is for most teams since I expect that ratio to vary, but believe the mental side is crucial. One fear I have that I haven't seen anyone share is the belief that hitting 3's early at a high clip "against a good team" (and that is key) may come back to haunt you. I believe there is a battle of wills that must be won similar to a team that is behind and mounts several great runs but is always beaten back and never gets over the hump...until there are no more runs and the will was won for that game. Hitting threes doesn't feed the aggressive desire and grit when the 3s quit going in and so I want Purdue to make them, but I like Purdue to get into the grind thinking the whole game is going to be tough before the easy points happen too fast. It's part of that battle with human nature...
I think you nailed it in saying if you're not hitting from the outside it just makes everything else tougher and narrows the margin for error. Can it be done? Sure. Does it make Zach's life a lot easier if defenses are afraid to leave our shooters open? I think it has to.I'm a bit more optimistic and think Purdue has less that 6-8 losses and say that without looking at the schedule which may be the difference in our numbers. My expectations for Purdue are to make the other team shoot just as poorly from the arc as Purdue. Why should other teams shoot better than Purdue? I don't see why the shooting cannot be a wash at worst. If shooting is effected by defense in some fashion, why can't Purdue make other teams shoot in similar fashion behind the arc? Is it because Purdue is more interested in keeping the ball out of the lane (which also affects the 3 ball)? Hitting the 3 ball would make things a heck of a lot easier, but you can't count on that, but you can do things every game that negate the shots value to some degree. My fear is more human nature than hitting the three ball.
I fear Purdue gets a bit lax mentally and physically on everything it can control while another team is sharper and hitting shots (which can be a bye product of being sharp)...but if Purdue is sharp every game in what it can control, Purdue has enough talent and depth that it should make another team's legs a bit weak as the game goes on. The question is how many points difference in a good 3 ball game and a bad 3 ball game when 20 shots are taken. I wonder if 6 point differential is the net effect on the 3 ball and then wonder if 6 pts can be exceeded in the things Purdue can control and if not six then 8 or 10? All make doing what you can do to affect the game much more important than if you are hitting the 3 ball, but it can be done. It is when Purdue doesn't do what it can that the 3 point shooting looms so large. Matt may ask, "Who are you when the shots aren't falling?"
Lets hope Purdue doesn't shoot too many 3 balls, but is efficient when it does shoot them and all of us lower our heart rates?
I posted above after you posted that eight losses seams like a lot to me, that six seems more likely even with poor three point shooting, but IMO there are a lot of conference teams at least capable of beating this team, particularly on the road. When you play OSU, IU and MSU twice (along with a PSU team that looks sneaky good and a Maryland team that has looked good at times) then add Iowa and Illinois at home and trips to Madison and Ann Arbor, there are a lot of places to potentially get tripped up if you let those teams hang around.
I'm optimistic that there will at at least be times where the shooting comes around and that will make things a little easier on this team so that they can avoid some of those close games that sometimes go sideways.
If we shoot well (which we haven't too much lately) I think it will be an easy win. If not, it's going to be a close one. I still think we prevail unless we just go completely ice cold. I sort of like being number 1. Would be nice to stay there for a little longer!
Remember, Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. dominated the ball over the last three years, so it was primarily one-on-one whenever they felt like it. Gone are the guys who can create shots on their own. The team's current makeup forces Rutgers to run more motion, creating easy shots. Rutgers is a more balanced team who shares the ball. The development of Cliff Oromuyi's post-game has opened the floor for the rest of the team. They play from inside outside, which has helped Cam Spencer see more uncontested 3-point shots and allowed Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell to live off the mid-range game. The scoring off the bench is better this year as Aundre Hyatt averages 12, and frosh Derek Simpson averages 8. You had almost no production off the bench last year. It's just a better-scoring team that finally compliments the defense.
What you should be concerned about is ball pressure from Rutgers' defense. You thought Rutgers was a solid defensive team the last few years, but this team has taken it up a notch.
I agree with all of that. It is doable and harder. Zach has been great and is the hub of the team. However it will be interesting to see if Zach is covered up and the three ball is not dropping "IF" 2 of the 3 (Caleb, Trey, Mason) play the four and five and open up the lane in a "smaller" ball group. What I don't know is the fatigue Braden battles since his motor never stops on O or D, but I know he is capable of scoring in bunches.
He hasn't done that and many times his scoring is second half it seems, but he could cut loose any time. I suspect the coaches have told him that he helps the team if he shoots it a bit more...not a lot but when him shooting is the best option
Appreciate the insight...always enjoy talking the game and getting perspectives from others. Thank you. Drawing a blank but trying to recall the guard that maybe was 2 or 3 years older than Geo before Geo was Geo. Could that be Corey Sanders? Thinking he was the other one on one player that could get into a really hot streak that extended the one on one play a few more years? I wish I knew more about the size for the other players and get an idea who Braden guards. Guessing McConnell has Loyer or Brandon. Course we have Omoruyi defending Zach. Does Mulcahy take Braden or Ethan? Don't know the 4 man and who has Caleb, Mason and or Trey. I just don't know the team this year to have a feel on who defends who on both teams. I just expect the usual rugged, close game. FWIW, I became a fan of Pikiell early when they rebounded and defended tough. You knew right then that he was building a team around things that carry. Also, doesn't he try to recruit a lot of 6'4" to 6'6" players over the years to switch a lot?
My biggest worry with Rutgers, is the size of their guards. It will be interesting to see how Braden and Fletcher or able to withstand their physicality.
Braden is strong enough, but yes the length and weight with a slow whistle “could” bring problems
It was Corey Sanders, TJ. 6'2" good guard and Rutger's leading scorer '16.'17. and '18.....left early declaring for the draft but never caught on in the NBA. Playing in Europe now I think.
McConnell is a very good defender as well. Going to have to try and keep Mulcahy out of the lane, too.
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