Purdue/Western Illinois overview

[nagemj02]

When: Monday, December 19th

Where: Mackey Arena

Tip-Off: 6

TV: BTN


Head Coaches:

Purdue: Matt Painter (12th season)

Western Illinois: Billy Wright (3rd season) (played with Chad Austin at Richmond HS in the early '90's)


Projected Starters:

Purdue:

1/2 #3 Carsen Edwards 6'0 185 (Fr.): averaging 11.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 2.1 APG, 40% FG's (45-114), 63% FT's (17-27), 32% 3PT's (17-53), and 22.6 MPG in 11 GP this season

2/1 #11 P.J. Thompson 5'10 175 (Jr.): averaging 7.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 3.2 APG, 44% FG's (30-69), 60% FT's (6-10), 40% 3PT's (21-52), and 26.4 MPG in 11 GP this season

2 #31 Dakota Mathias 6'4 195 (Jr.): averaging 10.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.9 APG, 50% FG's (39-78), 70% FT's (7-10), 53% 3PT's (28-53), and 30 MPG in 11 GP this season

4/5 #50 Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan 6'9 245 (So.): averaging 16.8 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 3.5 TPG, 2.6 FPG, 59% FG's (64-108), 73% FT's (48-66), 60% 3PT's (9-15), and 30.6 MPG in 11 GP this season

5 #44 Isaac Haas 7'2 280 (Jr.): averaging 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.5 TPG, 60% FG's (53-88), 69% FT's (48-70), no 3PT's attempted, and 22.7 MPG in 11 GP this season


Western Illinois:

1/2 #1 Jabari Sandifer 6'0 175 (Sr.): averaging 6.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 3.2 APG, 2.6 TPG, 3.1 FPG, 33% FG's (18-55), 62% FT's (21-34), 24% 3PT's (5-21), and 26.9 MPG in 9 GP this season

2/1 #40 C.J. Duff 6'1 180 (Fr.): averaging 7.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 36% FG's (25-69), 60% FT's (6-10), 41% 3PT's (17-42), and 30 MPG in 10 GP this season

2/3 #31 Garret Covington 6'5 195 (Sr.): averaging 20.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 3.1 TPG, 44% FG's (60-136), 85% FT's (51-60), 41% 3PT's (33-80), and 33 MPG in 10 GP this season

4/3 #30 Mike Miklusak 6'6 190 (Sr.): averaging 15 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1 SPG, 3 TPG, 4 FPG, 48% FG's (28-58), 64% FT's (9-14), 35% 3PT's (10-29), and 35.2 MPG in 5 GP this season

5 #52 Brandon Gilbeck 6'10 245 (So.): averaging 4.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.2 BPG, 3.8 FPG, 45% FG's (19-42), 64% FT's (9-14), no 3PT's attempted, and 18.3 MPG in 10 GP this season


Projected Reinforcements:

Purdue:

2 #14 Ryan Cline 6'5 190 (So.): averaging 7.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 61% FG's (17-28), 100% FT's (4-4), 59% 3PT's (16-27), and 19 MPG in 7 GP this season

3/4 #5 Basil Smotherman 6'6 225 (Jr.): averaging 5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 57% FG's (21-37), 63% FT's (5-8), 38% 3PT's (3-8), and 15.2 MPG in 10 GP this season

3/4 #12 Vince Edwards 6'8 215 (Jr.): averaging 11.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.7 TPG, 46% FG's (45-98), 77% FT's (20-26), 45% 3PT's (18-40), and 27.9 MPG in 11 GP this season


Western Illinois:

1/2 #11 De'Angelo "Delo" Bruster 5'10 165 (So.): averaging 4.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, 51% FG's (18-35), 82% FT's (9-11), 38% 3PT's (3-8), and 16.4 MPG in 10 GP this season

2/3 #32 Jeremiah Usiosefe 6'5 205 (Fr.): averaging 2.3 PPG, 47% FG's (9-19), 50% FT's (1-2), 20% 3PT's (2-10), and 8.8 MPG in 9 GP this season

3/2 #15 Dalan Ancrum 6'6 175 (Jr.): averaging 6.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 40% FG's (23-57), 78% FT's (14-18), 47% 3PT's (8-17), and 18.3 MPG in 10 GP this season

4/3 #22 Jalen Morgan 6'7 185 (So.) (left-handed shooter): averaging 2.2 PPG, 56% FG's (9-16), 29% FT's (2-7), no 3PT's attempted, and 11.1 MPG in 9 GP this season

4 #24 James Claar 6'8 200 (So.): averaging 2.3 PPG, 2 RPG, 50% FG's (8-16), 63% FT's (5-8), no 3PT's attempted, and 10 MPG in 9 GP this season

5/4 #34 Chris Snyder 6'9 230 (Jr.) (JC transfer): averaging 2.4 PPG, 79% FG's (11-14), 40% FT's (2-5), no 3PT's attempted, and 6.5 MPG in 10 GP this season


Who Might Play:

Purdue:

4/3 #24 Grady Eifert 6'7 220 (So.): averaging 1 PPG, 100% FG's (3-3), no FT's attempted, no 3PT's attempted, and 3.3 MPG in 6 GP this season


Western Illinois:

1 #14 Lynrick Moxey 6'1 180 (Jr.) (JC transfer): averaging 3.8 PPG, 71% FG's (10-14), 50% FT's (3-6), no 3PT's attempted, and 10.7 MPG in 6 GP this season

5 #44 Jordan Hughes 6'10 230 (So.): averaging 1.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 80% FG's (4-5), 67% FT's (2-3), no 3PT's attempted, and 4.5 MPG in 6 GP this season

 

[TC4THREE]

Ugh. 3-7 coming in. One of those games where if they only win by 20 it means they didn't play very well.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Ugh. 3-7 coming in. One of those games where if they only win by 20 it means they didn't play very well.

You're really not going to like this then, TC.....Norfolk State (2-9) comes in on Wednesday.

Tis the season....

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Good game for Haas to get back on track. Go out there and dunk a few times and get the mojo flowing.

 

[BoilersRock]

May as well pad some stats....

 

[TC4THREE]

You're really not going to like this then, TC.....Norfolk State (2-9) comes in on Wednesday.

Tis the season....

Unfortunately these games are a no-win scenario for RPI. Western Illinois is 345/351 in RPI. Norfolk State is 295. I think I remember someone showing how you're better off not even playing these level teams from an RPI perspective. RPI isn't everything and every team plays some bad teams but I just wish these were slightly more competitive teams.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Unfortunately these games are a no-win scenario for RPI. Western Illinois is 345/351 in RPI. Norfolk State is 295. I think I remember someone showing how you're better off not even playing these level teams from an RPI perspective. RPI isn't everything and every team plays some bad teams but I just wish these were slightly more competitive teams.

The issue is that because Purdue doesn't play any games during finals week, they have to usually cram 3 games in a 5 day stretch. You don't want to load up on highly skilled and capable teams this close to the conference season...especially getting Minnesota, Whisky, Iowa (x2), and OSU first.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Unfortunately these games are a no-win scenario for RPI. Western Illinois is 345/351 in RPI. Norfolk State is 295. I think I remember someone showing how you're better off not even playing these level teams from an RPI perspective. RPI isn't everything and every team plays some bad teams but I just wish these were slightly more competitive teams.

ya these games are all risk. we tend to get pushed to espn3 for them as well...bleh

 

[TC4THREE]

The issue is that because Purdue doesn't play any games during finals week, they have to usually cram 3 games in a 5 day stretch. You don't want to load up on highly skilled and capable teams this close to the conference season...especially getting Minnesota, Whisky, Iowa (x2), and OSU first.

We don't need to go play Duke and UCLA but just wish the teams were closer to 200 RPI than 300. I realize it's not easy to tell where some of these teams will be when you schedule them.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

May as well pad some stats....

A couple of 48 -50pt halves sounds nice.

 

[FirstDownB]

We don't need to go play Duke and UCLA but just wish the teams were closer to 200 RPI than 300. I realize it's not easy to tell where some of these teams will be when you schedule them.

As you say it is somewhat unpredictable. And scheduling W. Illinois is forgivable because the Summit league typically has a few decent teams each year. Norfolk St., however, plays in the MEAC, which is a bottom of the barrel D1 league.

High RPI (250+) teams are to be avoided at all costs because you can't beat them by enough points for the computer ratings to not penalize you just for playing them.
There were posts about this last year, and leading up to the tourney many people swore RPI would be given minimal consideration. Well, it turned out that the committee's decisions fell pretty squarely along RPI lines as opposed to BPI, KenPom, or any other measure.

To demonstrate the problem with RPI, consider 2 schedules of equal RPI SOS with the following opponent RPI:
Schedule #1: 101, 110, 320, 330, 340
Schedule #2: 201, 220, 240, 260, 280
Running the table on Schedule #1 is obviously more difficult than running the table on Schedule #2. Common sense says more weight should be given for playing teams that are capable of challenging a ranked team. Some credit is given (outside the RPI calculation) for beating Top 50 and Top 100 RPI teams, but there is no distinction given to playing 100's versus 200's versus 300's.

The RPI needs to be tweaked and/or given less consideration, but in the meantime I would avoid scheduling most teams from the bottom 3-4 conferences.

 

[punaj]

RPI is dumb. There have been better statistical models created since then and many have said that RPI should go. I wish the committees would listen.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

RPI is dumb. There have been better statistical models created since then and many have said that RPI should go. I wish the committees would listen.

Uh-oh.....we're slipping into that dreaded RPI/BPI discussion again.....I need to find my notes.

 

[BoilersRock]

Norfolk St., however, plays in the MEAC, which is a bottom of the barrel D1 league.

IU plays Delaware State tonight and Michigan and Iowa also played MEAC teams earlier this year - there may be other matchups as well. I'd guess there was some kind of a package deal between the B1G and MEAC conference.

But I agree, we shouldn't be playing this low of a level.

 

[boilerzz]

RPI is dumb. There have been better statistical models created since then and many have said that RPI should go. I wish the committees would listen.

The committee has listened.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/13/s...-a-seat-at-the-selection-committee-table.html

 

[nagemj02]

Covington is a scorer that can get to the rim and draw fouls and Miklusak is a tough cover for Swanigan on the perimeter (should Biggie guard him). So, those two have the potential to be tough matchups. Also, a lot of players on this WIU team are the same ones that beat Wisconsin last season. Purdue needs to understand that every opponent has guys that can play and should put their best foot forward every single game.

Boiler Up

 

[TC4THREE]

Covington is a scorer that can get to the rim and draw fouls and Miklusak is a tough cover for Swanigan on the perimeter (should Biggie guard him). So, those two have the potential to be tough matchups. Also, a lot of players on this WIU team are the same ones that beat Wisconsin last season. Purdue needs to understand that every opponent has guys that can play and should put their best foot forward every single game.

Boiler Up

I'll give you Western Illinois and 20 points.

 

[PU52Chevy]

Team effort will earn the W.

5 guys in Double Figures with solid rebounding on both ends.

Make the extra pass, hit the free throws and take smart shots.

Purdue 88 WIU 68

 

[nagemj02]

Team effort will earn the W.

5 guys in Double Figures with solid rebounding on both ends.

Make the extra pass, hit the free throws and take smart shots.

Purdue 88 WIU 68

I just don't want them to take this (or any) game lightly. Every team has guys that can ball, and this season's team has already seen what can happen when they seemingly overlook an opponent (i.e. Georgia State game). They shouldn't need a kick in the butt to get going in games like this. They should be ready.

 

[boilerzz]

I just don't want them to take this (or any) game lightly. Every team has guys that can ball, and this season's team has already seen what can happen when they seemingly overlook an opponent (i.e. Georgia State game). They shouldn't need a kick in the butt to get going in games like this. They should be ready.

Georgia State is MUCH better than Western Illinois. That said, I don't think the team overlooks them. Biggie is on a mission.

 

[nagemj02]

Georgia State is MUCH better than Western Illinois. That said, I don't think the team overlooks them. Biggie is on a mission.

We'll find out tonight. I think Mathias and Cline or Smotherman and V. Edwards will have to guard their best player (Covington).

 

[Mandeville LA]

The only game I have been to in many years was about this time of year. Took the whole family. I think they played Gardner Webb or something like that. My kids now side with my wife when it comes to basketball. She went to Kansas.

 

[nagemj02]

They did a good job on Covington. Miklusak ended up being their top scorer in the game. I was hoping the Boilers would foul out all of WIU's posts (Gilbeck, Snyder, Hughes). They almost did! WIU wasn't able to create much resistance or stops in the paint. Even VE scored most of his points on post-ups and put-backs. The good guys just had total control in the paint and on the boards.

Boiler Up

 

[boilerzz]

Georgia State is MUCH better than Western Illinois. That said, I don't think the team overlooks them. Biggie is on a mission.

I rest my case!

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I rest my case!

It's the Biggie Blues for opponents...

 

[boilernuke]

Unfortunately these games are a no-win scenario for RPI. Western Illinois is 345/351 in RPI. Norfolk State is 295. I think I remember someone showing how you're better off not even playing these level teams from an RPI perspective. RPI isn't everything and every team plays some bad teams but I just wish these were slightly more competitive teams.

Not sure if I looked this up correctly, but to prove this point, Purdue's RPI yesterday was 0.6168 (ranked 29) and today it is 0.6142 (ranked 30). For the record I also think RPI is a terrible metric.