Purdue vs Kansas predictions

[CoBo]

Let's hope you are wrong

OK, so let's say I *am* wrong. That would prolly mean at least two of the following is true:

• Purdue plays some zone defense (~30% of possessions) along with predominantly man-2-man defense.
• Purdue guards make decent amount of 3's (>40% 3FG) so as to take pressure off the front court and give them more space to operate.
• Purdue limits Kansas' transition game.
• Purdue gets Kansas players into foul trouble early.

We'll know more tomorrow.

Go Purdue!
CoBo

 

[Summy1]

OK, so let's say I *am* wrong. That would prolly mean at least two of the following is true:

• Purdue plays some zone defense (~30% of possessions) along with predominantly man-2-man defense.
• Purdue guards make decent amount of 3's (>40% 3FG) so as to take pressure off the front court and give them more space to operate.
• Purdue limits Kansas' transition game.
• Purdue gets Kansas players into foul trouble early.

We'll know more tomorrow.

Go Purdue!
CoBo

Purdue is not playing zone. Yes they need to make their threes and get Kansas into foul trouble.

 

[ImRonBurgandy?]

Biggie goes for epic 26/20 and into Purdue lore. Purdue 86-Kansas72.

 

[OsRitmos]

Good thing their big men aren't a real threat from the perimeter.

 

[delish1]

HUGE game with Purdue vs Kansas. Who wins and what will be the score?

Saw this stat but doesn't make me any less excited:

With Mason running the show, Kansas has lost only three of its last 52 games in regulation
(They lost two more games this year in OT, IU and Iowa State.)

I don't care if Purdue makes it four or three here. 77-71 good guys

 

[Erock_94]

Slow them down to our pace and run when we can and it is over, they won't be able to handle the Boilers down low. Purdue by 4 in a close one.

 

[FirstDownB]

Overall, Kansas is the better team. Let me just get that out of the way. And they have played a very solid schedule. However, like Iowa State, they have a weakness against us in that they have not played many teams like us. Conversely, Purdue has played against several teams of Kansas' composition, although not as good/talented. We have watched ongoing tweaks to lineups and substitution patterns, the chess match has been unfolding all season. Go back and watch the Minnesota game. We looked lost at times. Now watch the Iowa State game.

The team has come a long ways in optimizing its advantages and figuring out how to offset its deficiencies along the way. The one big weakness that remains is when a team can go '5 out' on us, i.e., Michigan and Iowa St in 2nd half desperation. I have a hunch that Self will approach this game like he did Baylor and we will see a lot of Lucas.

I've been wrong before, but I think this one is there for the taking. Limit turnovers and shoot >35% from 3 and we take this one narrowly. 78-76.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I would LOVE to be wrong. I just don't think it is going to go well for our Boilers. I am not convinced that Coach Painter has a good game plan that will adequately address the Kansas threat. I see a lot of man-2-man defense in the game which will take our bigs out to the perimeter. That is never good for us. We will get blown by every time. We will need a zone defense, especially when Isaac is in the lineup. Don't think that is gonna happen, though. Hence my pessimistic outlook on the results.

Oh Cobo, Kansas would shred a zone. To good from distance and the blow buys against scrambling close outs would be blindingly fast. Better to use multiple man approaches. Sometimes sag and help. Sometimes run them off the line. Sometimes switch ball screens and others hedge. Need more guard length and agility to zone these guys.

 

[tjreese]

Good thing their big men aren't a real threat from the perimeter.

don't know if it is their men or man though...

 

[tjreese]

Overall, Kansas is the better team. Let me just get that out of the way. And they have played a very solid schedule. However, like Iowa State, they have a weakness against us in that they have not played many teams like us. Conversely, Purdue has played against several teams of Kansas' composition, although not as good/talented. We have watched ongoing tweaks to lineups and substitution patterns, the chess match has been unfolding all season. Go back and watch the Minnesota game. We looked lost at times. Now watch the Iowa State game.

The team has come a long ways in optimizing its advantages and figuring out how to offset its deficiencies along the way. The one big weakness that remains is when a team can go '5 out' on us, i.e., Michigan and Iowa St in 2nd half desperation. I have a hunch that Self will approach this game like he did Baylor and we will see a lot of Lucas.

I've been wrong before, but I think this one is there for the taking. Limit turnovers and shoot >35% from 3 and we take this one narrowly. 78-76.

I don't know about Baylor...never saw it, but a lot fo truth elsewhere. I hope Kansas does NOT play 5 out AND Purdue bigs are NOT in foul trouble. IF those two things take place and Purdue plays like it is capable. the chance of winning is much greater. Definitely Kansas has more talent and a home court...but Purdue will be the hunter tonight instead of the hunted and if Kansas does not play 5 out and Purdue bigs are in good shape foul wise...this could be a great night. However, "IF" you were self AND had the ability to not drop off defensively and yet play 5 out...wouldn't you? I don't know enough about Kansas to know what to expect...

Purdue needs to do the obvious on O and hope the "shell" defense has enough movement as a TEAM that it covers the perimeter and yet provides enough help that Kansas only has a perimeter adn in-between game at its disposal...but nothing at the rim...

 

[todd brewster]

This is match up heaven for us. Put PJ on KM and PJ's gnat like D hopefully will tire him and change up his control of the game. DM on DG their high volume 3 pt shooter, which will be a source of frustration for DG. Put VE on SM and this is our best match up. VE can shut him down and go crazy on O. CS on JJ will provide an interesting match up, but I think CS will kill him in the post. IH on LL. Matt loves LL because he is an efficient player who gets plenty of O boards. IH is our best player at blocking out.

We win by 10.

 

[tjreese]

This is match up heaven for us. Put PJ on KM and PJ's gnat like D hopefully will tire him and change up his control of the game. DM on DG their high volume 3 pt shooter, which will be a source of frustration for DG. Put VE on SM and this is our best match up. VE can shut him down and go crazy on O. CS on JJ will provide an interesting match up, but I think CS will kill him in the post. IH on LL. Matt loves LL because he is an efficient player who gets plenty of O boards. IH is our best player at blocking out.

We win by 10.

understand that just because you want JJ to guard CS doesn't mean Self will do that. Who Biggie guards doesn't have to guard him...the other coach has a say.

PJ will have mason. I think Vince has Jackson most the time...when playing but will switch with Biggie as needed...I'm sure that switch will be okayed by teh coaching staff. Who ever is able to score on teh perimeter without the ball that MOVES could be DAkota's ...UNLESS Dakota is on JJ due to other players playing at the time. Cline can guard the funky name guy that is 6'8" if he can't drive the ball better than Cline can play dribble containment. I do not know enough about Kansas to know who guards who, but know PJ will be on Mason...and Dakota is best off the ball on the perimeter...graham or funky name? Biggie should lay in the lane. Vince I'm guessing is on Jackson...

Does Purdue play the bigs...all three for any time? If they do how do the D. I just don't know the personnel of Kansas to make an intelligent guess as to who guards who...I just do NOT want Vince, Biggie and Haas to get in foul trouble because depth inside is thin. Purdue could make due at other locations better...

 

[todd brewster]

understand that just because you want JJ to guard CS doesn't mean Self will do that. Who Biggie guards doesn't have to guard him...the other coach has a say.

PJ will have mason. I think Vince has Jackson most the time...when playing but will switch with Biggie as needed...I'm sure that switch will be okayed by teh coaching staff. Who ever is able to score on teh perimeter without the ball that MOVES could be DAkota's ...UNLESS Dakota is on JJ due to other players playing at the time. Cline can guard the funky name guy that is 6'8" if he can't drive the ball better than Cline can play dribble containment. I do not know enough about Kansas to know who guards who, but know PJ will be on Mason...and Dakota is best off the ball on the perimeter...graham or funky name? Biggie should lay in the lane. Vince I'm guessing is on Jackson...

Does Purdue play the bigs...all three for any time? If they do how do the D. I just don't know the personnel of Kansas to make an intelligent guess as to who guards who...I just do NOT want Vince, Biggie and Haas to get in foul trouble because depth inside is thin. Purdue could make due at other locations better...

So you are saying that just because CS is guarding JJ that JJ does not have to guard CS. I guess you are figuring Self does not want JJ to get into foul trouble. Given - this is Self's choice, but if JJ is guarding VE; then CS will post SM. This will even be more productive for CS and it will get SM in foul trouble. Or are you suggest Self has LL guard CS and JJ guard Haas. You are right, this may be harder for CS, BUT then IH will destroy JJ in the post and this will get JJ in foul trouble. Bill Self - pick your poison.

 

[TX4GB]

Swanigan cans 2 free throws in OT to win it as the crowd was deafening chanting Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

 

[tjreese]

So you are saying that just because CS is guarding JJ that JJ does not have to guard CS. I guess you are figuring Self does not want JJ to get into foul trouble. Given - this is Self's choice, but if JJ is guarding VE; then CS will post SM. This will even be more productive for CS and it will get SM in foul trouble. Or are you suggest Self has LL guard CS and JJ guard Haas. You are right, this may be harder for CS, BUT then IH will destroy JJ in the post and this will get JJ in foul trouble. Bill Self - pick your poison.

Again, I do not know the kansas personnel. if Haas comes in do they have enough quickness to guard him and flip it on the other side? Not saying that JJ will not guard CS...he very easily could and if that is the case...I front Biggie on all low and mid posts if I'm JJ. JJ is quick enough to front and jumps high enough Biggie may not see the ball if coming to the ball and make Purdue swing the ball while biggie seals and then comes to teh ball after the overplay. Some of this is dependent on what the refs allow. I would love to see Purdue establish an inside game with Haas...do I want it first half, second half or all through the game with potential diminishing returns?

What Self will know is that Purdue's inside is the key to winning and he will know that quick players inside have been a problem when having some strength...so very much depends on what the refs allow. I can guard Haas if they let me hold him. My guess is Self sees Purdue perimeter players limited in driving the ball and applies pressure on teh perimeter to make the passes inside difficult and then fronts the inside as well. I just don't have a feel for Kansas. It would be great if Mason is a perimeter shooter that can push the ball, but rarely takes it to the basket so that you only contend with his jump shot. If he or others get to the rim...we need some rebounds, by the guards since one of Purdue bigs will be helping on the other big that helped on the drive.

Keep the grind Purdue...keep teh grind on D adn take good shots while giving it enough time to look inside unless a very good shot. If this is anyone's game in the final couple of minutes...Kansas could pucker up really tight being the overall number 1 seed with essentially a home court. Kansas was suppose to be here, Purdue was supposed to be middle of the pack in the weak Big...remember?

 

[Summy1]

So you are saying that just because CS is guarding JJ that JJ does not have to guard CS. I guess you are figuring Self does not want JJ to get into foul trouble. Given - this is Self's choice, but if JJ is guarding VE; then CS will post SM. This will even be more productive for CS and it will get SM in foul trouble. Or are you suggest Self has LL guard CS and JJ guard Haas. You are right, this may be harder for CS, BUT then IH will destroy JJ in the post and this will get JJ in foul trouble. Bill Self - pick your poison.

You guys do realize that teams do pick and rolls and different defenders get on certain players? Yes, a player may be on another player for a while but things change.

 

[yotheo]

76-73 Boilers. Healthy respect for the Jayhawks. Just feel a W for the Boilers!

 

[todd brewster]

You guys do realize that teams do pick and rolls and different defenders get on certain players? Yes, a player may be on another player for a while but things change.

Yes, this happened against Vermont and Iowa State and Haas switched out until his picked teammate recovered. Haas then scampered back to the middle where Biggie and/or Vince had moved down and Biggie/and/or Vince were able to scamper out against his man. When we employed this defense against Iowa State and Vermont is when we took over the game. Even though we almost gave it back in the 2nd half against Iowa State, when we decided to go small ball and had only 1 of the big 3 and 4 guards.

 

[asby]

I don't know who is or can guard Mason? They may not be big inside...But they have athletes everywhere.

 

[tjreese]

You guys do realize that teams do pick and rolls and different defenders get on certain players? Yes, a player may be on another player for a while but things change.

**************************
I realize that Purdue does NOT control if Kansas runs a ball screen and pops, slips or sets the double screen (properly taught, but technically illegal) in a roll. I realize that Purdue does NOt control Kansas if they run a weave or any set, isolation, replacement, curls and screens off the ball or any other thought on offense..only that Purdue controls the D. Purdue may choose NOT to be on another player..that is Purdue's choice and not dictated by what the other team does.

I would imagine all coaches would prefer to NOT switch on all ball screens, but that is teh defense's choice. Just because two offensive players, one with the ball come close to each other, either in a ball screen or a weave does NOT mean you must switch....THAT is a choice. Whether you go over the top, slide underneath, defend away from the screen, hedge and recover, switch players, double the ball are all choices the defensive team makes...not the result of the offensive team adn what they are trying to do. It may very well be a switch, but it will aways be the defensive teams choice, colored by those involved in offense and defense adn how those offensive and defensive players are doing in that situation.

Now then, if Purdue chooses to switch on some ball screens...which I believe they will and it ends up being a mismatch...I hope Purdue is able to switch back BEFORE the offensive player becomes a threat but moves away from teh man that originally had him.

 

[BoilerFan#35]

Purdue wins 83-79.

 

[BoilerFan#35]

I don't know who is or can guard Mason? They may not be big inside...But they have athletes everywhere.

Boogie? He probably wouldn't be able to stop him but he might be able to stay in front of him better than our other guards. He doesn't ever play at the end of games anymore though. I like the Vince vs Josh Jackson potential matchup.

 

[Summy1]

Who will be the MVP tonight if Purdue wins? I am thinking outside the box and saying Mathias. He is key on defense and getting some much needed points.

 

[tjreese]

Who will be the MVP tonight if Purdue wins? I am thinking outside the box and saying Mathias. He is key on defense and getting some much needed points.

I think his inbetween game will be or hopefully will be huge. I expect pressure on the perimeter and denial inside...ignorantly since I don't know Kansas and only know the few things I've read. A good game from Biggie, a good defensive game from PJ and a typical tourney game from Vince couple with an effective Haas and a dynamic Carsen would be huge. How good will Dakota be on O coupled with how good will Vince be? Those two with decent games from the others and solid shell D might be enough...

 

[boiler-deuce]

I can't make a prediction (or won't) as Kansas could paste us or we could end up winning this "hump game". I call it that because I think if we win we'll be in the FF. I will say, this game largely hangs on 2 things. 1) Hass growing up and staying on the court instead of the bench saddled with foul problems. 2) DM nailing outside shots at a high percentage. If we get those two things it's OVA!

 

[ibew481]

I Love this match-up Kansas is the one with the pressure, number 1 seed, favorite to win...Purdue can go all out, nothing to lose, if its close at the end Kansas will choke IMHO

 

[jayhawk n carolina]

I Love this match-up Kansas is the one with the pressure, number 1 seed, favorite to win...Purdue can go all out, nothing to lose, if its close at the end Kansas will choke IMHO

Pressure tested!!! RCJH!

 

[todd brewster]

This is match up heaven for us. Put PJ on KM and PJ's gnat like D hopefully will tire him and change up his control of the game. DM on DG their high volume 3 pt shooter, which will be a source of frustration for DG. Put VE on SM and this is our best match up. VE can shut him down and go crazy on O. CS on JJ will provide an interesting match up, but I think CS will kill him in the post. IH on LL. Matt loves LL because he is an efficient player who gets plenty of O boards. IH is our best player at blocking out.
We win by 10.

I hate to say I told you so, but this ABOVE match up which I posted yesterday at 1026 AM gave us the best formula to defeat Kansas. SM hit some 3's that broke our back and JJ got some offensive boards that got them open for 3's. I am a big IH fan, but the prospect of him getting pulled for mistakes and for picking up fouls led him to play horrible D. In the past, when the center picked the guard IH came out aggressively. He did not do this last night and KM and DG had too many open looks for 3's. I can also understand why Isaac lost confidence when not starting the 2nd half. He thrashed their centers down low, scoring at will and their big men got into foul trouble. Furthermore, we could have posted CS down below against one of their forwards instead of LL.