Purdue should be a #1 seed

[BoilerinLouisville]

If not for getting Minnesota's best game of the year at Mackey, and too bad losses to Nebraska and Iowa this team would be battling for a 1 seed here in a few weeks. So close.
If they can keep winning and get to the #3 line, there's a good chance to make Indy in the 1st round. Right now we need Kentucky to keep losing.

 

[nagemj02]

Purdue should be a #1 or #2 seed...if not for Matt Painter's coaching (stubbornness and/or inability to change things up defensively in games when it would benefit them). He's still not running any high-ball screen action for Carsen Edwards. You would think he would try to incorporate that into the next game given that CE just made a game-winning play off of ball-screen action for him, but it's Painter so you can't count on him to learn from it and instill it more often.

 

[tkejones]

Purdue should be a #1 or #2 seed...if not for Matt Painter's coaching (stubbornness and/or inability to change things up defensively in games when it would benefit them). He's still not running any high-ball screen action for Carsen Edwards. You would think he would try to incorporate that into the next game given that CE just made a game-winning play off of ball-screen action for him, but it's Painter so you can't count on him to learn from it and instill it more often.

With your apparent wealth of knowledge and skillset, maybe you should be coach. We would probably be undefeated like the rest of the teams that actually have good coaches and you wouldn't have to be subjected to the sideline know-it-alls.

 

[SunnyFL24]

LOL!!!! I would be happy with a 4-5 seed.........

 

[Chauncey1986]

If not for getting Minnesota's best game of the year at Mackey, and too bad losses to Nebraska and Iowa this team would be battling for a 1 seed here in a few weeks. So close.
If they can keep winning and get to the #3 line, there's a good chance to make Indy in the 1st round. Right now we need Kentucky to keep losing.

Seth Davis doesn't even have them as a 4 seed(shame on him) and he also guaranteed the Falcons would win.

 

[jadeezra]

With your apparent wealth of knowledge and skillset, maybe you should be coach. We would probably be undefeated like the rest of the teams that actually have good coaches and you wouldn't have to be subjected to the sideline know-it-alls.

Don't think he claims to be a better coach than painter... he's just pointing out the obvious

 

[Chauncey1986]

With your apparent wealth of knowledge and skillset, maybe you should be coach. We would probably be undefeated like the rest of the teams that actually have good coaches and you wouldn't have to be subjected to the sideline know-it-alls.

Or just give it to Haas and let him throw it down with exceptional force.

 

[proudopete]

Purdue should be a #1 or #2 seed...if not for Matt Painter's coaching (stubbornness and/or inability to change things up defensively in games when it would benefit them). He's still not running any high-ball screen action for Carsen Edwards. You would think he would try to incorporate that into the next game given that CE just made a game-winning play off of ball-screen action for him, but it's Painter so you can't count on him to learn from it and instill it more often.

This is funny to me when you say it like this.

By your logic, he uses the same system without deviation, yet that same system brought us the wins against ND, Wisconsin, NW and now Maryland on the road.

Perhaps, and I'm just gonna step out on this limb here, perhaps the losses had more to do with what the other team did well and less on what we didn't do?

Call me crazy...

 

[GS Thomas]

For once, I'd love the 4...on Gonzaga's side. Consider me not sold. Nova rematch would be nice too.

 

[pu1985]

For once, I'd love the 4...on Gonzaga's side. Consider me not sold. Nova rematch would be nice too.

Ditto
Gonzaga really doesn't impress- talk about playing a soft schedule

 

[nagemj02]

This is funny to me when you say it like this.

By your logic, he uses the same system without deviation, yet that same system brought us the wins against ND, Wisconsin, NW and now Maryland on the road.

Perhaps, and I'm just gonna step out on this limb here, perhaps the losses had more to do with what the other team did well and less on what we didn't do?

Call me crazy...

Even when they win, I always believe that Painter could switch it up for, at the very least, a handful of possessions, but that would require him practicing those variations of zones with his team. He tried it before a couple of seasons ago, but he needs to commit to it (i.e. go back to it for a few possessions even if he doesn't seem fruitful at first) when he does it instead of being afraid just because the opposition might score on a couple of possessions: he's certainly not afraid to stick with man-to-man if the opposition scores on it for consecutive possessions.

 

[Chauncey1986]

Ditto
Gonzaga really doesn't impress- talk about playing a soft schedule

Yeah, they have taken down a few cupcakes

 

[nagemj02]

Ditto
Gonzaga really doesn't impress- talk about playing a soft schedule

I think this is the best team Gonzaga has had since they went to the Elite Eight in 1999. It's definitely their best backcourt. Their transfers have really made a huge impact (PG Nigel Williams-Goss from Washington, SG Jordan Mathews from California, PF Johnathan Williams from Missouri) for them to go along with their posts (redshirt senior Przemek Karnowski, McD's AA Zach Collins) and returning role players (Josh Perkins, Silas Melson, Killian Tillie). They are legit.

 

[nagemj02]

Yeah, they have taken down a few cupcakes

Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Washington are all pretty solid wins.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Purdue should be a #1 or #2 seed...if not for Matt Painter's coaching (stubbornness and/or inability to change things up defensively in games when it would benefit them). He's still not running any high-ball screen action for Carsen Edwards. You would think he would try to incorporate that into the next game given that CE just made a game-winning play off of ball-screen action for him, but it's Painter so you can't count on him to learn from it and instill it more often.

Maybe he doesn't run more high ball screen action because:
1) According to KenPom, Purdue's offensive efficiency is 120.0, which is good for a very solid 12th in the NCAA.
2) CE's offensive efficiency at 97.6% is by far the worst of any regular on the team.
3) CE's field goal percentage on two point shots is .437, well below the team average.
4) CE's field goal percentage on three point shots is .337, well below the team average.
5) CE only averages 1.9 assists per game and almost always looks to score when he drives
6) CE is tremendously effective when he lets the game come to him and doesn't force his offense. When he gets into hero ball his efficiency goes way down.
7) One successful drive does not prove that the high pick and roll would be a more efficient offense to run than what Purdue runs.

I'm not saying that I'm opposed to working more ball screens into the offense, but not running regular high pick and rolls doesn't make Painter incompetent. Purdue has the best offense in the Big Ten and Painter deserves credit for that.

 

[nagemj02]

Maybe he doesn't run more high ball screen action because:
1) According to KenPom, Purdue's offensive efficiency is 120.0, which is good for a very solid 12th in the NCAA.
2) CE's offensive efficiency at 97.6% is by far the worst of any regular on the team.
3) CE's field goal percentage on two point shots is .437, well below the team average.
4) CE's field goal percentage on three point shots is .337, well below the team average.
5) CE only averages 1.9 assists per game and almost always looks to score when he drives
6) CE is tremendously effective when he lets the game come to him and doesn't force his offense. When he gets into hero ball his efficiency goes way down.
7) One successful drive does not prove that the high pick and roll would be a more efficient offense to run than what Purdue runs.

I'm not saying that I'm opposed to working more ball screens into the offense, but not running regular high pick and rolls doesn't make Painter incompetent. Purdue has the best offense in the Big Ten and Painter deserves credit for that.

I never said it made him incompetent but it wouldn't hurt to use it a little more with his most talented guard. It's a waste to never run it with the kind of talent that CE possesses. Also, never utilizing any other types of halfcourt defense doesn't make Painter incompetent either, but it definitely makes him short-sighted and easier for the opposition to prepare against on that end of the court.

 

[DG10]

This is funny to me when you say it like this.

By your logic, he uses the same system without deviation, yet that same system brought us the wins against ND, Wisconsin, NW and now Maryland on the road.

Perhaps, and I'm just gonna step out on this limb here, perhaps the losses had more to do with what the other team did well and less on what we didn't do?

Call me crazy...

Except there was a common theme in each of the losses...very poor defense and, other than the Nebraska game, not knocking down shots from distance.

Purdue's losses had far more to do with what Purdue did or did not do rather than anything that their opponents did well.

Never mind the obvious in that there indeed was no variation at the end of the Nebraska game when Purdue ran the same ineffective play three consecutive times in a row when it needed a basket and it failed all three times in the same fashion.

 

[Boiler_HD]

Purdue should be a #1 or #2 seed...if not for Matt Painter's coaching (stubbornness and/or inability to change things up defensively in games when it would benefit them). He's still not running any high-ball screen action for Carsen Edwards. You would think he would try to incorporate that into the next game given that CE just made a game-winning play off of ball-screen action for him, but it's Painter so you can't count on him to learn from it and instill it more often.

I appreciate your contribution to this board by way of matchups posted weekly. but what you just posted is just plain dumb. If you believe Painter is the sole reason we lost those games I would prefer you had zero contribution. Players are at fault and sometimes teams just get outplayed. Painter has also won us some games. such as Notre Dame and I would claim Maryland.

 

[Boiler_HD]

Maybe he doesn't run more high ball screen action because:
1) According to KenPom, Purdue's offensive efficiency is 120.0, which is good for a very solid 12th in the NCAA.
2) CE's offensive efficiency at 97.6% is by far the worst of any regular on the team.
3) CE's field goal percentage on two point shots is .437, well below the team average.
4) CE's field goal percentage on three point shots is .337, well below the team average.
5) CE only averages 1.9 assists per game and almost always looks to score when he drives
6) CE is tremendously effective when he lets the game come to him and doesn't force his offense. When he gets into hero ball his efficiency goes way down.
7) One successful drive does not prove that the high pick and roll would be a more efficient offense to run than what Purdue runs.

I'm not saying that I'm opposed to working more ball screens into the offense, but not running regular high pick and rolls doesn't make Painter incompetent. Purdue has the best offense in the Big Ten and Painter deserves credit for that.

I prefer your statistics based approach.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

I never said it made him incompetent but it wouldn't hurt to use it a little more with his most talented guard. It's a waste to never run it with the kind of talent that CE possesses. Also, never utilizing any other types of halfcourt defense doesn't make Painter incompetent either, but it definitely makes him short-sighted and easier for the opposition to prepare against on that end of the court.

It's hard to argue that Carsen's talent is being wasted when he leads the team in field goal attempts per 40 minutes. He's very good in catch and shoot situations, which then allows him to beat his man and drive.

 

[GS Thomas]

Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Washington are all pretty solid wins.

Iowa st, TN, and Washington are like Ohio st, Michigan, and Illinois. Run of the mill.

 

[delish1]

Iowa st, TN, and Washington are like Ohio st, Michigan, and Illinois. Run of the mill.

They also faced Arizona before it became the current version. I'm not sure what people see in st. Mary's but I watched them lose to valpo in the nit with most of the same players are I can't figure out the hype at all. seem worse than northwestern level.

I would be very happy to see Gonzaga as purdue's 1 seed

 

[nagemj02]

Iowa st, TN, and Washington are like Ohio st, Michigan, and Illinois. Run of the mill.

I'll give you Washington. Tennessee has beaten Kentucky. Iowa State has beaten Kansas. Those are quality wins for Gonzaga. Also, they have no bad losses because they haven't lost yet.

 

[nagemj02]

It's hard to argue that Carsen's talent is being wasted when he leads the team in field goal attempts per 40 minutes. He's very good in catch and shoot situations, which then allows him to beat his man and drive.

He might be more efficient in pick & rolls situations than he is as a part of the motion offense. We don't really know though because he hasn't gotten that type play called for him (or iso action).

 

[BoilerDaddy]

He might be more efficient in pick & rolls situations than he is as a part of the motion offense. We don't really know though because he hasn't gotten that type play called for him (or iso action).

Perhaps, but I highly doubt it. Purdue has much better passers at this point than CE. I think that he's much better playing off others and finishing than he is initiating.

I really like Purdue's offense right now. The Boilers get a ton of great shots every game. As long as the bigs and Carsen stay out of an ISO mindset, Purdue is really tough to handle.

 

[arcb102000]

Purdue should be a #1 seed if we did not lose to Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska, but we did. Reality means something. Did we screw up? Yes, we did in those winnable games.

I hope that we can get to a #3 seed. To me that seems possible, especially if we win/tie for the regular season and win the conference tournament. A #3 seems little different from a #2 and should give a decent shot at the Elite 8 - and perhaps a Final 4.

 

[krazyjvilled]

st. mary's is withotu a doubt overated.. as is Gonzaga... They play in one of the worst conferences in Division 1.. it is laughable how bad the other teams are. St. Marys just held a team to 27 points AT that team's gym

I would love to get matched up with either of those 2 teams in the ncaa tourney

 

[boilerzz]

If not for getting Minnesota's best game of the year at Mackey, and too bad losses to Nebraska and Iowa this team would be battling for a 1 seed here in a few weeks. So close.
If they can keep winning and get to the #3 line, there's a good chance to make Indy in the 1st round. Right now we need Kentucky to keep losing.

Can't 20 or so teams say essentially the same thing?

 

[FirstDownB]

If they can keep winning and get to the #3 line, there's a good chance to make Indy in the 1st round. Right now we need Kentucky to keep losing.

This comment got me thinking about what is Purdue's path to Indy. At this point it looks to be a combination of (1) getting a 4 seed or better AND (2) being seeded lower than no more than one team with an Indy geographic preference.

For practical purposes, here is the current competition for top 2 spots in the Indy pod:
Louisville
Kentucky
Cincinnati
Purdue
Butler
Notre Dame

Getting a 3 seed would be preferential, but I think a 4 could be enough to secure Indy. The more important factor is finishing in the top 2 among these teams.

On the plus side, besides Wisconsin there should be a black hole of highly seeded teams near the Milwaukee pod, so that would probably be our consolation prize if we don't get the Indy pod. Beats playing in Denver.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

This comment got me thinking about what is Purdue's path to Indy. At this point it looks to be a combination of (1) getting a 4 seed or better AND (2) being seeded lower than no more than one team with an Indy geographic preference.

For practical purposes, here is the current competition for top 2 spots in the Indy pod:
Louisville
Kentucky
Cincinnati
Purdue
Butler
Notre Dame

Getting a 3 seed would be preferential, but I think a 4 could be enough to secure Indy. The more important factor is finishing in the top 2 among these teams.

On the plus side, besides Wisconsin there should be a black hole of highly seeded teams near the Milwaukee pod, so that would probably be our consolation prize if we don't get the Indy pod. Beats playing in Denver.

Interesting thoughts, FDB. There's also the variable of multiple teams from the same conference affecting the geographical preference, especially if they're top-4 on the seed line. Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia for example or North Carolina, Virginia, Louisville, Florida State/Duke.

 

[FirstDownB]

Interesting thoughts, FDB. There's also the variable of multiple teams from the same conference affecting the geographical preference, especially if they're top-4 on the seed line. Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia for example or North Carolina, Virginia, Louisville, Florida State/Duke.

So if the #3 team in any of those geographical groupings were ahead of the #2 team in Purdue's geographical grouping, I suppose it is possible their 'next closest' location could be Indy. But there are 2 southeastern sites for 4 southeastern teams and 3 sites further west than Indy for any overflow from PAC/B12 country. Only 1 site in the northeast, which in a typical year would cause some overflow, but besides Nova not many top teams from that area this season (no UConn, Syracuse, etc).

The other thing I was wondering about is what if we ended up as a 6 again, but as the top seeded 6. Would we get Indy or would they look at a potential second round 3-6 matchup of UK-Purdue in Indy and say that is not fair to UK?

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

So if the #3 team in any of those geographical groupings were ahead of the #2 team in Purdue's geographical grouping, I suppose it is possible their 'next closest' location could be Indy. But there are 2 southeastern sites for any ACC/SEC overflow and 3 sites further west for any PAC/B12 overflow. Only 1 site in the northeast, which might come into play, but besides Nova not many top teams from that area this season.

The other thing I was wondering about is what if we ended up as a 6 again, but as the top seeded 6. Would we get Indy or would they look at a potential second round 3-6 matchup of UK-Purdue in Indy and say that is not fair to UK?

That's another variable FDB. A top-4 seed line also has a preference toward not being at a home "disadvantage." I'm not sure where they draw the line on that.....in the case of Kentucky, Indy is not that much further from Lexington or say throw in Louisville in that hypothetical.....but Baylor or WVU or Virginia....and most of the rest of the field, probably yes.

For those of you interested, here are the 8-pod sites, again:

Indianapolis
Buffalo
Salt Lake City
Greenville, SC (relocated from Greensboro)
Milwaukee
Orlando
Sacramento
Tulsa

 

[GS Thomas]

I'll give you Washington. Tennessee has beaten Kentucky. Iowa State has beaten Kansas. Those are quality wins for Gonzaga. Also, they have no bad losses because they haven't lost yet.

Damn. That's some Joe Lunardi sh&t right there. Expert analysis for FREE

 

[nagemj02]

Damn. That's some Joe Lunardi sh&t right there. Expert analysis for FREE

I could say the same for you as well.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

So if the #3 team in any of those geographical groupings were ahead of the #2 team in Purdue's geographical grouping, I suppose it is possible their 'next closest' location could be Indy. But there are 2 southeastern sites for 4 southeastern teams and 3 sites further west than Indy for any overflow from PAC/B12 country. Only 1 site in the northeast, which in a typical year would cause some overflow, but besides Nova not many top teams from that area this season (no UConn, Syracuse, etc).

The other thing I was wondering about is what if we ended up as a 6 again, but as the top seeded 6. Would we get Indy or would they look at a potential second round 3-6 matchup of UK-Purdue in Indy and say that is not fair to UK?

As well as UK travels, I don't think that UK would be at a disadvantage at all.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

As well as UK travels, I don't think that UK would be at a disadvantage at all.

Good point, Daddy. I was at the 2005 Regional in Austin.....they seemed to take over the place.....and you want to talk about some crazy outfits? Lord, have mercy.

I also have several UK alums as friends.....from my time spent in the Bluegrass State. It is a religious experience to many of them.

 

[BoilerAndy]

I never said it made him incompetent but it wouldn't hurt to use it a little more with his most talented guard. It's a waste to never run it with the kind of talent that CE possesses. Also, never utilizing any other types of halfcourt defense doesn't make Painter incompetent either, but it definitely makes him short-sighted and easier for the opposition to prepare against on that end of the court.

Did you ever consider applying for an assistant coaching job? I strongly encourage you to do so, if you think you can push the Boilers over the top.

 

[GS Thomas]

I could say the same for you as well.

Was specifically referencing this high-level gem:

Also, they have no bad losses because they haven't lost yet.

 

[boiler800]

Seth Davis doesn't even have them as a 4 seed(shame on him) and he also guaranteed the Falcons would win.

Seth Davis had Hillary winning the Presidency too, so you can see he hasn't got many predictions right lately.

 

[nagemj02]

Was specifically referencing this high-level gem:

Also, they have no bad losses because they haven't lost yet.

Yes, I was intentionally being obvious to make my point. Obviously you misinterpreted that.