Purdue Midrange Game

[qazplm]

If the best shot available is a midrange where you average 0.94 points per shot? Good D.

Not if you're particularly successful at it.

Clearly Purdue is doing well, so your proposal is what, it's simply good luck? That Purdue is due a regression because they play suboptimal?

Again, statistics are fun in a vacuum, but they don't generally fully transfer to real life because real life is almost always more complicated than most statistical models.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Absolutely you’re an elite offense because you have elite shooting at all 3 levels. What puts you ahead of other offenses despite the midrange usage is how often you get to the FT line. That’s actually the most efficient place to score.

The free throw rate being the difference was far more true last season than this season. According to Torvik, this season Purdue is a good, but not great, 38th in adjusted free throw rate. In comparison, Purdue is 8th in offensive efficiency and 6th in adjusted eFG%.

Purdue has also done a great job of limiting turnovers since January, not to mention that Purdue has been doing quite well converting steals into easy buckets over the same stretch.

 

[tjreese]

Absolutely you’re an elite offense because you have elite shooting at all 3 levels. What puts you ahead of other offenses despite the midrange usage is how often you get to the FT line. That’s actually the most efficient place to score.

do you get to the FT line by shooting threes? Rhetorical...

 

[New Pal Boiler]

S'alright - I won't be giving it back.

Going back to the original post, you said that the midrange might lead to more offensive rebounds - that would make them more worthwhile. But, I'm seeing PU being in the 150s for ORebs.

You also said that the use of midrange makes PU unique, and I would agree with that. Looks like Iowa and Michigan are pretty bunched up with PU regarding eFG%, and both of those teams shoot a much lower percentage of their shots from midrange.

Wisconsin is kinda far back in eFG% compared to the three mentioned (at least rankings-wise - it's a small amount in absolute numbers), but is right there with you for overall offensive efficiency. I think the difference in shooting gets made up by UW's low turnover %.

BTW, you're our next game - I know you have a big one tomorrow and I hate the boys in blue. Or maize. We never win in Mackey, so chalking it up as an L, but I hope we can learn something.

Since You’re a Badger fan, allow me to put this in Wisconsin football parlance for you:

Look at it like how your runs set up play action passing. With a balance of passes and runs, YPA are way better than the YPC, but if you throw it every play, the LBs drop back into coverage and ignore the play fake, and your YPA go down.

Does that help?

 

[BadgerInSpartyland]

Since You’re a Badger fan, allow me to put this in Wisconsin football parlance for you:

Look at it like how your runs set up play action passing. With a balance of passes and runs, YPA are way better than the YPC, but if you throw it every play, the LBs drop back into coverage and ignore the play fake, and your YPA go down.

Does that help?

Say more. What are the football equivalents of a paint shot, a midrange shot, and a 3?

do you get to the FT line by shooting threes? Rhetorical...

That's not the argument. I would think most shooting fouls are at the rim, no? That's just what my eyes tell me - I'd listen to data that says otherwise.

The free throw rate being the difference was far more true last season than this season. According to Torvik, this season Purdue is a good, but not great, 38th in adjusted free throw rate. In comparison, Purdue is 8th in offensive efficiency and 6th in adjusted eFG%.

Purdue has also done a great job of limiting turnovers since January, not to mention that Purdue has been doing quite well converting steals into easy buckets over the same stretch.

You're unquestionably right that without Edey, PU's FTs are less this year, but 38th is still roughly 90th percentile. Wisconsin is right there with you offensively (when I hit the adjust box, I see you at 8th this morning and UW is 12th). After trying to figure out why Wisconsin is anywhere close to you - your shooting is a lot better - I think I've concluded that Wisconsin has small advantages in TO% and with making their FTs at a higher percentage.

I'm saying PU could be even better if they decreased mids usage even slightly. More rim shots would be the preference, where the payoff is best.

 

[Lee3370]

Care to explain?

For me, it's simple math. At the rim, PU is over 67% which is 1.34 points per attempt. From 3, you're 37.5%, which is 1.13 point per attempt. Midrange at 47% is 0.94 points per attempt. It is inarguably the least efficient shot you can take, even for the best team in the country at them. Yet PU takes about a third of their shots from midrange - a lot more than most.

What am I missing?

I would add that the ball is in Braden's hands allot and without looking at the stats, he is the one that is taking a ton of our mid range shots. When he gets run off the line, and they are fronting the entry pass to TKR, it is often the best shot of Braden shaking a guy off and taking the mid range game.

College game is a bit different than the pros. The pros have more capable passers and scorers or they wouldnt be in the NBA. Its all about efficiency in the modern NBA, But in college, not all players are scorers, or have the confidence. SO you get mid range shots from the teams best player that is allot of time a better shot from your center who doesnt always go up strong, although i really like Furst, seems like a great kid and gives max effort.

 

[tjreese]

Say more. What are the football equivalents of a paint shot, a midrange shot, and a 3?


That's not the argument. I would think most shooting fouls are at the rim, no? That's just what my eyes tell me - I'd listen to data that says otherwise.

You're unquestionably right that without Edey, PU's FTs are less this year, but 38th is still roughly 90th percentile. Wisconsin is right there with you offensively (when I hit the adjust box, I see you at 8th this morning and UW is 12th). After trying to figure out why Wisconsin is anywhere close to you - your shooting is a lot better - I think I've concluded that Wisconsin has small advantages in TO% and with making their FTs at a higher percentage.

I'm saying PU could be even better if they decreased mids usage even slightly. More rim shots would be the preference, where the payoff is best.

The only thing I was pointing out past what I have previously posted was that the mid range game gathers more fouls than shooting behind the arc . This gets you in bonus quicker, hurts the individual fouling some, which could lead to less effective D, adds to the team fouls that can also benefit other players and potentially removes pieces from play as well as scoring...sometimes when you want to score and not lose seconds.

Where I think your understanding differs from mine in some ways is that I don't believe statistics creates results, it just measures previous results which may or may not be in play in a particular game of time inside a game. Damn good starting place for general understanding, but I think you need to audit those thoughts internally as the game goes on. I said that in my example of Steven shooting 3s in two games or the peasant hunt. The individual average will never match a particular game without truncating the data...too big a difference in percent per shot when compared to that difference being smaller when the previous data is averaged assuming the person in play shoots a few 3s per game

 

[BadgerInSpartyland]

without looking at the stats, he is the one that is taking a ton of our mid range shots.

53-118 44.9% from "far 2" per Torvik. 60.7% at the rim and 38.8% behind the arc (which equates to 58.2 eFG%). If I'm defending PU, I would definitely live with the midrangers from Smith.

 

[BadgerInSpartyland]

The only thing I was pointing out past what I have previously posted was that the mid range game gathers more fouls than shooting behind the arc . This gets you in bonus quicker, hurts the individual fouling some, which could lead to less effective D, adds to the team fouls that can also benefit other players and potentially removes pieces from play as well as scoring...sometimes when you want to score and not lose seconds.

I was just looking at your matchup with Michigan. Michigan has a very good eFG% and their mid usage is VERY low, they shoot a lot of 3s, yet they are very good at getting to the free throw line. I don't think shooting more mids leads to more FTs - shooting more shots at the rim does.

Michy's big issue is turnovers, btw.