PU -14 1/2
- Thread starter Dryfly88
- Start date
I thought this could be the classic trap game as well, but then I remembered this team's pattern this year: If player A is having an off night, then players B, C, D, et al have his back. Play D no matter what, and as long as one big and one shooter are having a good night, we are ok. Team could fall into the trap, but seems unlikely with this bunch.
New Mexico already has a solid win @ NM State, and their only loss was on the road to a decent USC team.
This will be a tough game & 14.5 sounds a little too bullish. Hope I'm wrong.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/
I like this one because it lists several different sports books.
This is going to be a hard fought game imo. A would be happy to get out with a win. Probably will come down to the last few minutes.
As Boilerzz referenced, Pittsburgh is a much better team than New Mexico, and it was an away game for Purdue, and Davis didn't play, and Stephens was in a slump, and the refs were terrible (on both sides), yet Purdue won by 12.
New Mexico is a worse team, Purdue is at home, Davis might play, Stephens should shoot better, and the refs simply can't be worse - I think 14 1/2 is light.
Yes, New Mexico CAN win, and it could be a close game, but all things equal, the margin should certainly be more than the Florida game margin of 15 (Florida is 23rd in KenPom, New Mexico is 64th).
New Mexico is a worse team, Purdue is at home, Davis might play, Stephens should shoot better, and the refs simply can't be worse - I think 14 1/2 is light.
Yes, New Mexico CAN win, and it could be a close game, but all things equal, the margin should certainly be more than the Florida game margin of 15 (Florida is 23rd in KenPom, New Mexico is 64th).
I've been reading their (New Mexico) boards a bit... they sure think they are better than Pitt. How, I don't know. I think most people like to think their team is better than others when is it close. That said, I think I read somewhere that KenPom says NM is our 3 toughest game this year. If that is accurate, I would guess Pitt and Florida are the two it ranks ahead of NM.
If I were putting money on the game, I would go with us being a home game. Not sure I would go with the spread because I'd probably just jinx us.
If I bet against the spread I'd take the points. 15 is a ton and even if Purdue played really well I don't see them winning by more than 20-ish which would allow for a backdoor cover in the last couple minutes if the game played out that way.
I guess I should have said "According to every computer model that I've seen plus the handful of voters in the AP poll who voted for Pitt last week, Pitt is better than New Mexico." You are right. It was an assumption on my part. But it was done so with some level of support.
Interesting...........
Chris Forman@ChrisForman12 8h8 hours ago
According to Ken Pomeroy, #Purdue and Valpo are the only 2 teams nationally to be "favored" in every game the rest of the way. #BoilerNotes
Chris Forman@ChrisForman12 8h8 hours ago
According to Ken Pomeroy, #Purdue and Valpo are the only 2 teams nationally to be "favored" in every game the rest of the way. #BoilerNotes
Sagarin:
Purdue 2, Florida 18, Pitt 37, New Mexico 55
KenPom :
Purdue 5, Florida 23, Pitt 39, New Mexico 65
Purdue won by 12 and 15 over better opponents than N.M., while NOT at home for either game, and missing a starter for one of the games, so I don't think 15 points is too much.
(The only people who think New Mexico is better than Pitt are the New Mexico fans.)
I don't put much stock in computer rankings and even less this early in the season. These same rankings I believe had IU ahead of us in the not too distant past. I wouldn't take them as ironclad proof that a one loss ACC team is better than a one loss mwc team at this juncture but to each his own. I think tomorrow tells us a lot about New Mexico.
Pitt beat Dusquene by 20 something tonight. Dusquenes has a couple really quick guards. Pitt looked real good in this win. I want to add, Pitt scored 96 in the win.
I want to know what PU52Chevy thinks. He almost nailed the score on the Purdue vs. Pitt game.
I think it might be a little high. I know we have home court and beaten better opponents by more (Florida, Pitt) but UNM has the size to match up with our bigs better than those two teams. Their bigs aren't as good, but size helps and they've played well. I feel the line should be around 10 and my prediction would be 72-60 Purdue wins this one.
I don't know about that.
We are hurting ourselves in this game more then I think they are hurting us.
Purdue definitely loses this game early last year. Not completely up for this "trap" game. Just get the "W" today!
I would say the same thing about Pittsburgh. Thought the only reason they were ever in the game was because we played about 10 minutes of atrocious basketball at the end of the first half. I'd take New Mexico's guards and interior players over Pitt's any day.
That's fine. I don't mind have differing opinions.
That is as long as you're rooting for the Boilers. ; )
I wasn't too impressed with New Mexico.
Against Pitt, Purdue played great, shooting 40% from 3-point range, only had 12 turnovers, and won by 13.
Against NM, Purdue played much worse, only shooting 14% from 3-point range, and had 19 turnovers, and yet still won by 12, almost the same score.
Vince Edwards probably played the worst game of his Purdue career. It's because NM is so weak that Purdue was able to play that badly and yet still win by double figures.
If Purdue had shot their normal 40% from 3-point range, they would have had 15 more points and won by 27 against NM. If they had also cut down on their turnovers, they would have won by 30+.
You can argue that NM caused Purdue to play badly, but even coach Painter said that the missed three-pointers were good shots that just didn't fall.
Over the last two days, Pittsburg has widened the gap even more between NM in KenPom (33 vs. 65) and in the Sagarin as well (29 vs. 51).
Against Pitt, Purdue played great, shooting 40% from 3-point range, only had 12 turnovers, and won by 13.
Against NM, Purdue played much worse, only shooting 14% from 3-point range, and had 19 turnovers, and yet still won by 12, almost the same score.
Vince Edwards probably played the worst game of his Purdue career. It's because NM is so weak that Purdue was able to play that badly and yet still win by double figures.
If Purdue had shot their normal 40% from 3-point range, they would have had 15 more points and won by 27 against NM. If they had also cut down on their turnovers, they would have won by 30+.
You can argue that NM caused Purdue to play badly, but even coach Painter said that the missed three-pointers were good shots that just didn't fall.
Over the last two days, Pittsburg has widened the gap even more between NM in KenPom (33 vs. 65) and in the Sagarin as well (29 vs. 51).
Purdue hardly played great AT PITT. They played well for about half the game. The first ten minutes and the last ten minutes. The last ten minutes of the first half was the worst basketball I've seen them play this season. Pitt was at home and they still couldn't manage to come within double digits.
New Mexico came into Mackey, had their bigs in foul trouble all game long, shot poorly from the free throw line, and had it not been for a terrible goaltending call and an irrelevant technical foul at the end it would have a closer game even though we outrebounded them by 20+. As coach Painter also said, we were lucky that game was at Mackey on Saturday because that's the only place in the country that we beat them that day. We beat Pitt by more AT PITT. I wonder how much worse it would've been on a neutral court or in Mackey?
LOL…..Pittsburg is ranked 25th in the Sagarin today (i.e., a Top 25 team), and beating them at their place is not playing great? Really?
Please tell me how a 13 point win, against a Top 25 team, on the road, while missing a starter can’t be described as great? I’m pretty sure that every team and every fan would relish a double-digit win against a Top 25 team on the road; even the #1 team in the nation facing the #25 team would be thrilled with a 10+ point win.
You seemed determined that New Mexico is better than Pitt, even though every fact is against you:
1. Pitt received enough votes to place 32nd in the USA Today Top 25 poll today. New Mexico received nary a vote.
2. Pitt received enough votes to place 36th in the AP Top 25 poll today. New Mexico received nary a vote.
3. Pitt is ranked 25th in Sagarin. New Mexico comes in a distant 49th.
4. Pitt is ranked 33rd in KenPom, NM comes in a distant 65th.
5. Pitt actually increased the number of votes that they received in the AP and USA Today polls after getting beat by Purdue, and moved UP; New Mexico didn’t receive a single vote after getting their Purdue loss. Perhaps the poll voters considered the 13 point Pitt loss to be more impressive than New Mexico’s 12 point loss? You think?
Every poll says that Pitt is the better team, every computer ranking (which takes in to account EVERY game a team plays) says that Pitt is the better team, and every sports announcer that I have heard or read says that Pitt is the better team.
Please tell me how a 13 point win, against a Top 25 team, on the road, while missing a starter can’t be described as great? I’m pretty sure that every team and every fan would relish a double-digit win against a Top 25 team on the road; even the #1 team in the nation facing the #25 team would be thrilled with a 10+ point win.
You seemed determined that New Mexico is better than Pitt, even though every fact is against you:
1. Pitt received enough votes to place 32nd in the USA Today Top 25 poll today. New Mexico received nary a vote.
2. Pitt received enough votes to place 36th in the AP Top 25 poll today. New Mexico received nary a vote.
3. Pitt is ranked 25th in Sagarin. New Mexico comes in a distant 49th.
4. Pitt is ranked 33rd in KenPom, NM comes in a distant 65th.
5. Pitt actually increased the number of votes that they received in the AP and USA Today polls after getting beat by Purdue, and moved UP; New Mexico didn’t receive a single vote after getting their Purdue loss. Perhaps the poll voters considered the 13 point Pitt loss to be more impressive than New Mexico’s 12 point loss? You think?
Every poll says that Pitt is the better team, every computer ranking (which takes in to account EVERY game a team plays) says that Pitt is the better team, and every sports announcer that I have heard or read says that Pitt is the better team.
I trust my own eyes and I was not impressed with Pitt whatsoever. Computer rankings and the polls are pretty much worthless at this point in the season so you can keep all of those "facts" you want. If you want to believe Pitt is actually a top 25 team then believe it. I don't think the will make the NCAA tournament. Time will tell and you aren't going to change your mind at this point and I know I'm not buying in based on computer rankings of how they have beaten a handful or midmajors. When they start playing someone of consequence is when my opinion will either be proven or changed.
You are using that as an excuse? The bigs for most teams will be in foul trouble this year against Purdue. You act like it is some kind of fluke that AJ and Haas deserve no credit for.
LOL.....let's see, what did Dakich say on his show today?
Oh, yes....that Sagarin "is the smartest of the polls", which includes USA Today, AP, KenPom, etc.
He also said Sagarin was the "most meaningful".
He also said that the NCAA selection committee uses Sagarin
You do realize that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that New Mexico plays, not just one, correct? Purdue finished 3rd in the Big 10 last year, yet lost to Northern Florida and Gardner-Webb. Thus, it's fairly stupid to base an opinion on ONE game, yes?
The computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct
And that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct?
And that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that play the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct?
And that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that play the teams that play the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct?
Unless you have seen every NCAA game this season (approx. 1500 games so far this year, which would take 126 days of solid 24-hour watching), then you cannot have more data than the computers.
You are incapable of presenting even ONE fact or even one professional opinion to support your statements. You sound like the Iraq official who insisted that Iraq wasn't being bombed, even while bombs were blowing up in the background behind him.
(FYI, Pittsburgh extended it's lead yet again over New Mexico in KenPom and in Sagarin today: 25 vs. 52. LOL.)
Oh, yes....that Sagarin "is the smartest of the polls", which includes USA Today, AP, KenPom, etc.
He also said Sagarin was the "most meaningful".
He also said that the NCAA selection committee uses Sagarin
You do realize that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that New Mexico plays, not just one, correct? Purdue finished 3rd in the Big 10 last year, yet lost to Northern Florida and Gardner-Webb. Thus, it's fairly stupid to base an opinion on ONE game, yes?
The computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct
And that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct?
And that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that play the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct?
And that the computer rankings take into account ALL of the teams that play the teams that play the teams that play the teams that play the teams that New Mexico plays, correct?
Unless you have seen every NCAA game this season (approx. 1500 games so far this year, which would take 126 days of solid 24-hour watching), then you cannot have more data than the computers.
You are incapable of presenting even ONE fact or even one professional opinion to support your statements. You sound like the Iraq official who insisted that Iraq wasn't being bombed, even while bombs were blowing up in the background behind him.
(FYI, Pittsburgh extended it's lead yet again over New Mexico in KenPom and in Sagarin today: 25 vs. 52. LOL.)
Hell. Someone on this board agreed with me in another thread. I just don't harp on it like you do. I don't think Pitt is very good at all and nobody will change my opinion on that except Pitt if they can beat some decent teams sometime. Your opinion and your computer rankings and polls mean nothing to me. I don't think they are an NCAA tournament team come the end of the year and I thought they were lucky to ever be in the game against Purdue. You don't agree? Fine. Understand that you're not going to change my mind and I no longer care about your thoughts on the matter. Time will settle this.
You are certainly entitled to your opinion, even if it is clearly wrong!
We'll see. Wouldn't be the first time where I've gone against the grain and been wrong but would be far from the first time I was right too.
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