Nebraska
- Thread starter boilersteve91
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After yesterday, I would be pleased if Purdue found a way to stay within 7...especially if they are only going to score 7.
If you look at 3 scores, it tells you probably everything you need to know. Illinios L 22-30. Mich. St L 20-23. Minnesota L 23-30. I think these teams are as much on par as anything on their schedule. This tells me that with a healthy QB, they will score around 24 points against us. I do think our defense is as good as these 3. If Martinez is still gimpy, who knows?
The big question for me is can we score 30? We will need to score points. I hope that we get some sort of running game going, just enough to keep them honest.
The big question for me is can we score 30? We will need to score points. I hope that we get some sort of running game going, just enough to keep them honest.
Getting Horvath back would be a huge boost...at least to the extent of being able to keep the defense honest perhaps, as, there was none of that yesterday.
Purdue is going to have to find a way to score 28 or more...they have only done that once in the past 5 weeks unfortunately. The defense is capable/good enough to keep them in the game and give them a chance seemingly...but, the offense has to be exponentially better than it has been for more than a month now, save the Iowa game (which is mind boggling in hindsight...no doubt more so for their coaches and fanbase).
Their defense isn’t bad. I don’t think they are nearly as good as Wisconsin. The Wisconsin D isn’t huge, but they are tremendously active up front. Really good DB play. LB’s are really good players.
The Nebraska D is really big. Definitely a step down from the two defenses we just played. The ND defense is really good too. So, we’ve played some really stout defenses recently. Nebraska is probably in the neighborhood of the Minnesota D. Should be a challenge for sure.
Going into yesterday we had the second ranked defense in the big ten. Right now we are 4th but still 13th in the nation. Minnesota is close at 17th. Illinois and Michigan state? 85th and 89th respectively.
my take is that since Martinez has the wheels to elude karlaftis id put us around 21 in terms of what we will give up IF the defense isn’t hung out on the field all day.
what I will say is the Nebraska is a significant notch below Wisconsin and even Minnesota defensively. Cam Taylor Britt is talented. No one they have is a dominant force. And even on Minnesota we got 95 yards from doerue. My bet is a close game where, if we don’t get sloppy with the ball we can win 24-21 which is my prediction
Nebraska always seems to be in close games, so I agree it will be close with us. The Nebraska D has shown a pulse, but isn’t a dominant force. I have Purdue winning 31-24.
Keep in mind that Nebraska's defense has played three top 40 Power 5 offenses. Minnesota has two better edge rushers than Nebraska, but Nebraska does everything else better than the Gophers on that side of the ball.
If you want to see total defensive value, you should look at scoring defense and yards per play allowed. To make a long story short, Minnesota's defensive numbers wouldn't be as good as Nebraska's if they faced the same competition so far this season.
Nebraska will have a much better secondary than Wisconsin, but Purdue won't face the same caliber of pressure.
Purdue's greatest advantage vs. Nebraska will be on the edge vs. Nebraska's tackles. Their pass protection is pretty poor. Martinez is lucky to be alive at this point in the season. Husker RB Rahmir Johnson went out with a concussion vs. Minnesota. After him, their depth is poor. I have no clue if he will be back or not.
How stout is your run defense? Believe it or not, rushing yardage has been the most reliable predictor of points scored by this Purdue offense. When we get 80-90 yards its usually enough to open up the field. The teams that have bottled up this offense have all held it under 80 yards rushing.
Nebraska is allowing 3.9 yards per carry. The Huskers held Kenneth Walker from Michigan State to 61 yards on 20 carries.
Keep in mind, its the same defensive front 7 that held Purdue to -2 yards rushing a year ago.
Taking the good with the bad, same defense also allowed a career day to Minnesota's Bryce Williams just one week ago.
Your second statement is the part that does concern me a bit. A lot of the same guys in the trenches on both sides of the ball. But, recall, in that game Nebraska raced out to a 17 point lead in the first quarter. At that point Purdue had only attempted 2 runs and being down 3 scores made the playcalling even more one dimensional. The much-improved defense should keep Purdue in the game much longer this time around and allow and at least allow for an opportunity to find some balance. No team has gone out to more than a 7 point lead on Purdue through the first 3 quarters all season. Now whether they find a brick wall at the LOS or can manage 2-4 yards and get a safety to step away from David Bell is the question.
Not good against the premier defensive end in college football.. the one thing that will save Martinez is that if it’s Just karlaftis he’s fast enough to get away. If anyone else is in there and forces him to karlaftis game over.
Purdue’s defense is better than Nebraska’s across the board. Nebraska will have to play a crisp mistake free offensive game and get big plays to beat Purdue
Our defense is night and day different from the last time we played them as well. They gave up points to UW but only really after the offense kept turning the ball over and keeping them on the field for way too long.
Nebraska isn't Wisconsin. The only thing they have in common is the red on their uniforms, maybe.
The biggest difference from last year by far is that Purdue is night and day better defensively.. I think cornicator may not like his introduction to a vastly better Jalen Graham and Marvin grant. Purdue is going to continue to have their problems up front. They won’t look nearly as bad as they did against Wisconsin. I’m not convinced Nebraska can outscore a 24ish scoring total by Purdue unless their execution is just crisp and top notch offensively. And if Martinez can have that kind of day hats off.
@Cornicator i think got slightly off info from you. The second biggest indicator of offense for Purdue is running the ball.. which both means yard total and against what kind of commitment to stopping the run.
the first is pressure from the OUTSIDE on Oconnell … if you don’t get there from the edges at least as fast as Minnesota he can make throws against good talent .. because at that point the choice is either to let David bell have a day, which he will all day long OR to double him and leave openings for all kinds of other things in the passing game.
Purdue 24
Nebraska 21.
Nebraska could go as low as 13 if they are sloppy.
a lot of Martinez’s offense comes from leaking out the right side and getting yards against contact. Marvin grant is probably gonna lay at least two hits on him where you go .. oh man.
if either team doesn’t come to play the other team will make them look like crap. Could easily be a route either way.. BUT Purdue is not going to come to play and just not have opportunities. Which is what happened against Wisconsin. They were just good enough that the opportunities weren’t there
Fully agree. If you go back and watch that game it’s just the defense and special teams taking sucking to a whole new level. Wasn’t karlaftis out?? Lol 😂
And I think our offense is going to stall this weekend again but I also think they will put together two or three long scoring drives. Which will be just enough for this massively improved defense to get a rest.
Yeah we are probably having an Iowa day against them.. same point total .. but Iowa was more about them not moving the ball .. if petras could have moved it a lot it’s probably a very close game and we don’t get 24.
I've seen multiple posters state on Nebraska sites that they have no pass rush.... this to me is the key. When O'Connell has a clean pocket he is usually money
Very accurate statement. Wisconsin's front defensive 4 are very, very good. Like four George Karlaftis good. We likely won't see anything like that outside of maybe O$U the rest of the season.
This game comes down to the Adrian Martinez that shows up. If you get a good Adrian that sees the field, Nebraska is going to score. Michigan had a really good front and plays good defense and NU moved the ball all over them. NU isn't as bad as you guys are making them out to be. They aren't good, but they aren't terrible and I'd say a step up from Purdue.
If bad Adrian shows up Purdue can win and it's probably a 28-24 game in favor of Purdue. If Adrian comes to play it's probably 42-17 NU in my estimation. I guess we will see Saturday.
Purdue definitely has an improved D since Disco is gone and Karlaftis is an absolute animal. You have a few other nice players and play as a team so it is going to be tough sledding, but you aren't better than a lot of the D's we've already played and put points on. It'll also be interesting to see how you rebound from Wisconsin game. I caught a little bit of it and they seemed to just beat you guys up. Sometimes that take a toll and opens things up for the team next week. Will be an interesting game for sure.
If bad Adrian shows up Purdue can win and it's probably a 28-24 game in favor of Purdue. If Adrian comes to play it's probably 42-17 NU in my estimation. I guess we will see Saturday.
Purdue definitely has an improved D since Disco is gone and Karlaftis is an absolute animal. You have a few other nice players and play as a team so it is going to be tough sledding, but you aren't better than a lot of the D's we've already played and put points on. It'll also be interesting to see how you rebound from Wisconsin game. I caught a little bit of it and they seemed to just beat you guys up. Sometimes that take a toll and opens things up for the team next week. Will be an interesting game for sure.
You missed the part where I said if bad Adrian shows up you win?? Bad Adrian has been there against Illinois, Buffalo, Part of Fordham Game, MSU and now Minnesota. There is a good shot you win the game because he seems to be around a lot.
That's just an awfully big discrepancy between good Adrian and bad Adrian. 42-17 stands out as an outlier here.
Sounds like Heisman Trophy Martinez if it’s 42-17. Scott Frost would be an Oracle if HT Martinez shows up.
For reference, Nebraska has scored over 29 pts once this year, versus Fordham. But Adrian Martinez will put up 150% of that number against a George Karlaftis led defense. Mmmmmmkkkkkkk.
Now you might get bailed out by a 5 TO day or some special teams gaffes like the blocked punt last year but, beyond that, you need HT Martinez for the beat down you’re predicting.
29 against Michigan and 56 against NW. Karlaftis is special, but Aiden Hutchinson is every bit of his level and he kept him at bay. #5 is going to get his because he is special, but the rest of Purdue's D isn't the same level as Michigan.
Last week you saw the difference when a defense is on the field so much and in bad situations. 5 turnovers kill a defense. Wisconsin did the same ol' same ol' ball control running it down our throats. By the 2nd half we couldn't keep up. How much of the turnover issue was purely on AOC/OL and how much of it was just props to UW? Maybe we'll find out Saturday.
I predicted a win for Purdue if bad Adrian shows up and he does a lot. With that said, you don't run the ball that well and the back that would probably give us trouble is Horvath and I doubt he plays. Bell is special, but Cam Taylor Britt plays pretty well against tough competition and our D is improved. It'll be an interesting game.
Neither team is good in the W-L column and I think each opposing fan base thinks the other sucks.
I don't disagree. Hard to win games when you turn the ball over 5 times. That's never a recipe for success. The week prior you guys exploited Iowa for what they were because you didn't make the mistakes they normally feast on. Each week is different for sure.
Our place kicker is god awful right now, we won't have one punt that isn't fair caught and will probably not field at least 3 punts that should have been caught and you'll pin us inside the 5 on every one of them. That is Nebraska's season.
"each opposing fan base thinks the other sucks"
I don't see anyone predicting a 25 point Purdue win if good Aidan shows up.
Do people actually think like this?
Ok, here's my attempt...
If "good Aidan" shows up Purdue's offense will roll.
Note: This "good Aidan" character, as conveniently defined by me for the sake of this argument, has only showed up 3 times ever. But here are his numbers:
2019 Indiana: 408 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT 41 points
2020 Illinois: 371 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT 31 points
2021 Iowa: 375 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT 24 points
And Iowa's defense is better than Nebraska's defense. So if good Aidan as defined above shows up, Purdue rolls. Otherwise, we'll just blame it on "bad Aidan".
Ok, here's my attempt...
If "good Aidan" shows up Purdue's offense will roll.
Note: This "good Aidan" character, as conveniently defined by me for the sake of this argument, has only showed up 3 times ever. But here are his numbers:
2019 Indiana: 408 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT 41 points
2020 Illinois: 371 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT 31 points
2021 Iowa: 375 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT 24 points
And Iowa's defense is better than Nebraska's defense. So if good Aidan as defined above shows up, Purdue rolls. Otherwise, we'll just blame it on "bad Aidan".
