But....Painters teams never execute in the tourney. That's sort of the entire point.
I could also argue that if Painter's teams magically shot 50% from 3 during the tourney, maybe he'd have a couple FF and a NC by now.
See how that works?
Message for Coach Matt Painter
- Thread starter collegehoopsfan123
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I could also argue that if Painter's teams magically shot 50% from 3 during the tourney, maybe he'd have a couple FF and a NC by now.
See how that works?
Also whose fault is it that we were relying on freshman guards and didn't have any reliably good shooters on the roster?
Bingo! Or guards that drove to the hoop
to draw the defense for closer scoring
opportunities.
If Cline could have hit 1 more FT , we would already have a FF.
another way to look at that: If Edwards had missed the back 2 of the 3 free throws, we don't get by Tenn.
The B10 was really weak last year. Only 1 team even made it out of the first weekend of the tourney.
Or if Painter didn't intentionally foul, Cline wouldn't have been put in that spot in the first place. (Also why choose Cline? Should've had Carsen shoot those imo)
This is why I have you on ignore. You consistently either cherry pick your arguments, leaving out any data that doesn't support your view because 'winning' an argument on a message board is important to you or you lack the ability to think logically. Either way, it's extremely boring to interact with you and I'm admittedly dumb for taking you off ignore. I'll do this again but suspect that you'll just ignore all the actual data that I'll lay out and cherry pick some emotional argument.
Your argument here makes no sense. As covered many times, the Edwards / Edwards / Haas team was loaded with veterans and shooters. You stated before that there's a chance that they have an off shooting night and lose to TT and I agree that's possible, but that team rarely had an off shooting night. With Haas, TT either let's him feast 1x1 in the paint as they were long and athletic, but didn't have the type of player who could stop him 1x1 or they leave the shooters open and hope they consistently miss. Without Haas Purdue's offensive game plan was completely changed in a way that played to TT's defensive strengths.
The 2022 team had two very immature stars in Jaden and Tre and an incredibly inexperienced big in Zach. There was plenty of talent but none of the maturity of the 2018 team that wins big games in the NCAAT.
If you put a couple of the 2018 shooters on last year's team the FDU game is a laugher because you have multiple guys hitting 4 or 5 wide open threes each. We just didn't have consistent shooters on last years team as compared to the 2018 team that had five guys shooting 40% or better on 100+ attempts each.
I think fouling when up 3 on a final possession is always the right call. You just have to grab the rebound. And why Painter didn't have his longest, most athletic guys in for the rebound is still a question.
I guess I'd ask how?
We aren't really adding a big three-point threat other than maybe Heide, but I'm not sure how Heide gets a lot of minutes if Morton and Colvin are playing,
Maybe guys will do better but you can't count on it. As much as some on here point to Cuonzo or Davis as examples of guys who improved their shooting there are also guys like Stephens, Morton, Newman, Wheeler and Gillis who have regressed from one year to the next.
My guess is Purdue will shoot better than last year but I don't see where we have the personnel to shoot much better than 35% from three next year.
WTH you talking about, Cline got fouled, Painter did not choose that?
Loyer will go down as best 3 point shooter we have ever had, that is how.
You have me on ignore, yet you spend 30 minutes typing a response....interesting. But I'll engage.
Again, you act like losing Haas was like losing Glenn Robinson. Haas was a nice player, but he's the typical Painter big: Slow, immobile, clogs the lane. As we've seen time and again in the tourney, this is easy for the opposing coach to game plan for and defend because the Purdue big is so one dimensional.
Was he a mismatch? Sure. But Beard is a good defensive coach and would have had a game plan to neutralize Haas while limiting the number of open looks for the shooters.
Purdue shot 39% from 3 that game: (7-18). Even with Haas, let's say they shoot 50% from 3 (9-18). Any team would take 50% from 3 in any game. We lost by 13..........(and yes, I recognize Haas would have got some points, but the backups at the 5 (Haarms and Taylor combined for 8).
Nothing in Painters tourney coaching history demonstrates he would have had a plan B and made in-game adjustments.
And if you want to talk about mismatches or size advantages, we had no bigger advantages than we had with Ivey, Williams and Edey against St. Peters and this year, Edey against FDU. Painter still couldn't figure out a way to get his team to perform.
I think your 35% is a good floor, anything above that is gravy. What's as or more important is consistency. If Zach is back this team will have a chance against good competition shooting in the low 30's but games in the low 20's will kill you.
Gillis was hurt much of the year and Loyer struggled adapting and wore down, I'd expect both to improve markedly. I'd hope / expect Braden's consistency to improve, which likely brings his average up a couple of point.
Beyond that I agree that it's primarily hope that water finds it's level. Caleb and Trey can both shoot it but it was Trey's first year and I don't know why Caleb's % declined so dramatically. I don't know what to make of Ethan. His attempts last year almost tripled from the year before but almost all remained good, in rhythm looks. I don't know how he went from 44% to 28%.
Have stated elsewhere that I do hope Matt focuses on developing a backup strategy to get good looks when threes are not falling and opponents are selling out to take away the paint. His philosophy of 'just keep taking good looks' is right over the course of a season but is often ineffective in an individual game.
Me: other than Loyer improving, can we expect to shoot better?
You: Yes
SC: How?
You: By Loyer improving
Glad you could lead with a little jab rather than talk to the facts.
So your argument is that because Beard is a 'good defensive coach' he would be able to take away Haas in the low post while simultaneously taking away open threes? You're literally just making things up.
Unless Beard has a bag of magic beans Haas is either getting 1 on 1 looks in the post or Purdue shoots twice as many open three pointers.
You act like the game was not close throughout when it was a three point game with five and a half minutes left before Purdue went scoreless for three and a half minutes and scored two points in over four minutes. That just doesn't happen if Haas is getting low post looks or Purdue is getting open looks from three.
Beard's not going to leave Haas to go 1 on 1 in the post. He's going to double and make him give the ball up. Then you're relying on Purdue's shooters to make shots. Unfortunately, the statistics are against that happening:
Here's why:
The 21-22 team that got beat by St. Peters shot 38% from 3 on the year. In that game, they shot 23%.
The 17-18 team shot 42% on the year, in the loss to TT, they shot 38%. So, even with Haas, if they shoot their average, that's essentially 1 more made 3 for the game.
Those 2 games, combined with the FDU game, in which Purdue shot 14% pts below their season avg, are good examples that Painter's teams generally underperform in the tourney.
I'll say it again: 1) If TT doesn't leave Haas 1x1 in the post (I agree with your assessment that they're unlikely to do so), Purdue shoots 10 to 15 more open threes than they did without Haas. 2) The 2018 team had five guys that shot over 40% from three on over 100 attempts. The 2022 team had zero. If you want to argue that there's a chance that the 2018 doesn't shoot well from three that's fine, but the data suggests it's very unlikely (much less likely than it was with the 2022 team).
You’re arguing math with someone who insists that a 16-15 record is “historically bad”.
Maybe the poster is “historically bad at math”.
I still think even with a healthy Haas, Beard has a game plan to make Haas earn his points while not giving up too many open 3s.
10-15 more open 3s means Purdue is shooting 28-35 3s That's a lot of long shots against a long, athletic TT team.
Maybe they'd have shot near their avg of 40%.
I just don't have enough confidence in a Painter coached team in the tourney to expect them to do anything outside the norm.
when the last 2 losses have been to a 15 and 16 seed, yeh, that's historically bad.
I mean that's really the gist of it, which is fine, you don't have confidence in Painter to win big games in the tournament.
That's different than having a factual basis for saying there's 'no way' that Purdue beats TT with Haas, but you're certainly entitled to your views and despite the fact that he has won a number of big NCAAT games the last five years (Texas, 'Nova, TN), I understand why that would be your gut reaction.
To your point, there's no factual basis for saying Purdue does beat TT with a health Haas. You're certainly entitled to that opinion. But, I think everyone would agree, that since the 2018 season, Painter's teams in the tournament have played much worse. That's factual.
Yup, agree that my view is only an opinion. I've not said that I guarantee a win against TT with Haas, just that I like that team's chances. I don't love their chances in the next round against 'Nova that year, but clearly nobody had a solution for that team.
I assume you mean that the NCAAT performance has been worse since the 2018-2019 team? Yes, it is factual. It's also factual that two of those teams were very young and had little to no expectations going into the season. Painter absolutely needs to be better and the roster configuration fall on him, but it's not coincidental that the 2018 and 2019 teams had talent and experience in the backcourt and at the wings in a way that the last three teams were lacking. Who knows, may be more of the same this year despite more experience, we'll see.
I don't buy into the argument about being young impacting play in the tourney. Would older, be better? Sure. But by the time the tourney rolls around, these freshman have played 35 games, against some really good competition, in some very hostile environments, in pressure situations.. Playing a 15 or 16 seed should be the least of their worries. I'm convinced this mental part is on Painter.
When you have guys literally scared to shoot, then that tells me there's something wrong in terms of being mentally locked in. That has to come from the HC.
Painters offense gets shooters plenty of clean, open looks. What is it that you think he is doing that makes the mental part tough on the players?
You absolutely don’t have to buy into the notion that having older players makes a material difference in tournament performance. It is a fact. Whether you believe it or not has zero impact.
If Painter is to blame for shooting woes, does he get credit for when Carsen and Cline went apeshit from three in 2019?
I don’t know, I’m not at practice or in the locker room. But, we’ve all seen Painter have players on a short leash and get benched after making a mistake. Maybe it’s fear of failure. Again, I don’t know but I do know it’s the HCs job to have the team ready, prepared and locked in.
The HC gets the blame and the glory. Right or wrong it is what it is in sports. It’s why a mid major head coach gets a big time contract after a deep tourney run.
It’s the same reason a baseball manager gets fired even though he’s not the one swinging at bad pitches.
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