Managing expectations...

[Statey]

In 2015, Hammons led the team in overall BPM and DBPM and unlike Biggie also led in adjusted FG% and not in turnover%. He was a bigger loss. Purdue still improved in 2016. Purdue will improve even more in 2017.

So your floor is a repeat B1G championship and/or advancing to Elite 8?

I don't get why this is so hard to understand. Purdue lost it's most gifted and most driven player. Purdue is not going to be better in 2017 than a year ago. Biggie was the only player on the team that 100% believed in himself and the team every time he stepped on the floor. He was absolutely critical to Purdue's success and everyone knows it - Painter included. That's why coach largely left him in games in spite of the turnover problem - he was that mission critical. I don't need advanced metrics, BPM, and all that jazz to surmise that Purdue is going to be worse off without it's All American double-digit machine.

 

[nagemj02]

So your floor is a repeat B1G championship and/or advancing to Elite 8?

I don't get why this is so hard to understand. Purdue lost it's most gifted and most driven player. Purdue is not going to be better in 2017 than a year ago. Biggie was the only player on the team that 100% believed in himself and the team every time he stepped on the floor. He was absolutely critical to Purdue's success and everyone knows it - Painter included. That's why coach largely left him in games in spite of the turnover problem - he was that mission critical. I don't need advanced metrics, BPM, and all that jazz to surmise that Purdue is going to be worse off without it's All American double-digit machine.

They will miss what he brought to the table but that doesn't mean that they can't improve with what they have now and make up for his loss in other ways. I don't think anyone can definitively say that the 2017-2018 Boilers will be a lesser team than the 2016-2017 version until we at least see them play a few times.

 

[mathboy]

So your floor is a repeat B1G championship and/or advancing to Elite 8?

I don't get why this is so hard to understand. Purdue lost it's most gifted and most driven player. Purdue is not going to be better in 2017 than a year ago. Biggie was the only player on the team that 100% believed in himself and the team every time he stepped on the floor. He was absolutely critical to Purdue's success and everyone knows it - Painter included. That's why coach largely left him in games in spite of the turnover problem - he was that mission critical. I don't need advanced metrics, BPM, and all that jazz to surmise that Purdue is going to be worse off without it's All American double-digit machine.

I recall someone, perhaps you, posting almost the exact same post last year about losing AJ. No doubt an equally accurate analysis.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I actually was not a big fan of the offense when Hammons played, seemed like the ball had to go to him every time down the floor some games , and the other players stood around. I thought Purdue played better when everyone got in the flow of the game and only went to Hammons when open. Just my opinion and no I don't feel like going back and looking at stats for a couple hours to verify it.

Know what you mean but consider that the other players were much better last season than they were two seasons ago with Hammons. We didn't have anyone who could hit a three when it mattered that season. Last year we had a bunch of them who could.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I recall someone, perhaps you, posting almost the exact same post last year about losing AJ. No doubt an equally accurate analysis.

I'm with you Math. It's a mistake to assume that the loss of one player cannot be covered or that the team can't even be better even though he is gone. As an example the Boilers following the departure of Glenn Robinson won.

 

[Dakota Girl]

They will miss what he brought to the table but that doesn't mean that they can't improve with what they have now and make up for his loss in other ways. I don't think anyone can definitively say that the 2017-2018 Boilers will be a lesser team than the 2016-2017 version until we at least see them play a few times.

Damn Nags, I agree with you twice in one week. One of us is out of sync!

 

[PurdueBtfu2]

I'm with you Math. It's a mistake to assume that the loss of one player cannot be covered or that the team can't even be better even though he is gone. As an example the Boilers following the departure of Glenn Robinson won.

From several months ago.
1. Won the Big Ten. Convincingly.
2. Yet the team became even better.
3. Drafted 26th. Big Ten Player of the Year & National Finalist.

Remember just a few weeks ago when Purdue was already out of the title race?

Remember when this year's team was considered as a step down from last year's team?

Remember when Swanigan was questionable in the NBA draft, or possibly not the best player in the Big Ten?

Keep faith fellow Boilermakers!
Don't let the negative keyboard coach fans get you down.

 

[WabashRiver]

Purdue vs. Michigan in February. In 1st half Dakich, big Biggie fan, makes comments like "Wagner is killing Swanigan" and "Swanigan is playing a horrible defensive game." Swanigan's defensive inadequacies, poor shot selection, and turnovers combined to put Purdue in a 15 point halftime hole.

There's a stretch of 5 minutes of game time in middle of 2nd half where only members of the 2017 team are on court. They outscore Michigan 8-4. During the game Haas showed his elite defensive potential, deterring straight line drives and even blocking a dunk. Every piece of evidence I go back and look at contradicts common public perception. With another offseason of tireless work ethic, Biggie would've gotten his defense and decision making closer to matching his elite rebounding and shooting. But last year he was as much a liability as a legend. Purdue will be better in 2017. Substantially.

 

[StickPurdue]

View embedded media

Purdue vs. Michigan in February. In 1st half Dakich, big Biggie fan, makes comments like "Wagner is killing Swanigan" and "Swanigan is playing a horrible defensive game." Swanigan's defensive inadequacies, poor shot selection, and turnovers combined to put Purdue in a 15 point halftime hole.

There's a stretch of 5 minutes of game time in middle of 2nd half where only members of the 2017 team are on court. They outscore Michigan 8-4. During the game Haas showed his elite defensive potential, deterring straight line drives and even blocking a dunk. Every piece of evidence I go back and look at contradicts common public perception. With another offseason of tireless work ethic, Biggie would've gotten his defense and decision making closer to matching his elite rebounding and shooting. But last year he was as much a liability as a legend. Purdue will be better in 2017. Substantially.

I don't think they will be better, but I don't think it will be a huge step back. I still believe top 20 by the end of the season and another sweet 16 run. The backup 4/5 is a big question, but there is way more depth in the front court.

The question is whether is service or or not. Can Taylor stay healthy, will Ewing truly be here in July and can he adapt to Big Ten ball instead of JC, and is Haarms truly as impressive as Painter has been saying. Haarms gained weight and already looks better. He could be serviceable at the 5.

The second big question is Wheeler. Can he fill out like Haarms and get meaningful minutes.

Everybody expects Eastern to make a difference. The four seniors have already showed lots of ability. Carsen is on the U19 squad and I expect him to improve. I know Purdue is losing Biggie, but there are still many peices. Purdue ran into a red hot Kansas, or they would have possibly been an elite 8/final 4 team. I don't think it unrealistic at all to expect a minimum of sweet 16. They lose Biggies leadership, but there are enough seniors to make sure leadership isn't an issue. If Purdue didn't have Biggie last year, more people would be optimistic about this year. Anything outside of the top 25 and a sweet 16 will be dissapointing. Those seniors aren't giving up just because Biggie left.

 

[WabashRiver]

Key word is you "think" they won't be better. That's perception. I'm focusing on reality. Let's look at another angle. A team's offensive efficiency is determined by its primary ball handlers. Like a quarterback, they set up 100% of the action. The #1 thing that determines a ball handlers effectiveness is experience. Recent history has shown that with dominant senior seasons by ball handlers Koenig, Walton Jr, Ferrel, Trice, Archidiacano, and Heild. Let's look at the experience of Purdue's primary ball handlers.

Vince - senior, 91 career starts
PJ - senior, 60 career starts
Dakota - senior, 57 starts
Carsen - sophomore, 21 starts
Cline - junior, 7 starts
Eastern - freshman

You'd be hard pressed to find that much experience among any team's primary ball handlers. Purdue will be better in 2017. The evidence proves it.

 

[Statey]

I recall someone, perhaps you, posting almost the exact same post last year about losing AJ. No doubt an equally accurate analysis.

Off the top of my head, I don't recall that prediction, but maybe your memory is better than mine. Thinking back on it, I'm not sure what basis I would have made that claim though. Granted, I did believe that AJ brought a lot to the table, but last off-season Purdue was returning it's best recruit in ages and bringing in a pretty talented player in CE. So a post player returning to steady the ship down low, and a good guard coming in to help alleviate what for a couple years had been the weak link - ball handling. That said, I guess it wouldn't have been that outrageous of a prediction if the prevailing thought was that Biggie was leaving after last year (which I personally thought he was).

Back to this season... should I interpret the bolded part of your cynical response to mean your projection for next season align with Wabash's, that Purdue is going to be better than 1st in B1G and S16 this coming year without CS?

 

[tjreese]

View embedded media

Purdue vs. Michigan in February. In 1st half Dakich, big Biggie fan, makes comments like "Wagner is killing Swanigan" and "Swanigan is playing a horrible defensive game." Swanigan's defensive inadequacies, poor shot selection, and turnovers combined to put Purdue in a 15 point halftime hole.

There's a stretch of 5 minutes of game time in middle of 2nd half where only members of the 2017 team are on court. They outscore Michigan 8-4. During the game Haas showed his elite defensive potential, deterring straight line drives and even blocking a dunk. Every piece of evidence I go back and look at contradicts common public perception. With another offseason of tireless work ethic, Biggie would've gotten his defense and decision making closer to matching his elite rebounding and shooting. But last year he was as much a liability as a legend. Purdue will be better in 2017. Substantially.

I do think Purdue "could" be better next year, but it will not be due to the absence of Biggie. Whatever level Purdue is next year I think they could be better with Biggie. That said, I haven't seen any of the new players in competition, but encouraged by the size of Taylor and three newcomers in particular...Eastern that brings an ability Purdue did not have. Haarms, that brings an ability Purdue did not have and Wheeler that keeps a shooting touch already on the team, but brings a better athlete. Ewing, I really need to see to have a feel and Sasha I think just has too many in front of him that has similar skills. Haas, it is now or never and I think we see improvement. Cline improved his D...I look for more improvement in his D and putting the ball on the court. Vince is Vince, but I think we see a consistent, good, aggresive Vince. Dakota, hopefully he gets another healthy year in...just a solid player...good off the ball D, can stroke it adn generally great passer. Pj, sooooooo consistent, smart...consumate teammate...shooting pocket a little low, but with some space can knock it down. Carsen, will be a more cerebral player...and driven even more after the U19 games.

Purdue will have some pieces for depth that was missing last year with Basil leaving the team and Taylor hurt...that alone is enough to cut the aggresiveness on D for Biggie and Haas...because you HAD to have them for O. I'm not sure I'll see another go so hard after boards as Biggie did in my remaining years and as I watched him in Mackey I knew I was watching a player that affected a lot of areas of the game. I look for a bit more driving of the ball this year adn do think the team can be better, but not because Biggie is missing...but in spite of it.

 

[Statey]

You'd be hard pressed to find that much experience among any team's primary ball handlers. Purdue will be better in 2017. The evidence proves it.

If by evidence, you mean the 2-, 5-, and 10-min sections of film you analyzed and extrapolated into a 40-min game, then I guess you would be right. In the end, your prediction may be dead on, but your methodology is dead wrong.

 

[StickPurdue]

Key word is you "think" they won't be better. That's perception. I'm focusing on reality. Let's look at another angle. A team's offensive efficiency is determined by its primary ball handlers. Like a quarterback, they set up 100% of the action. The #1 thing that determines a ball handlers effectiveness is experience. Recent history has shown that with dominant senior seasons by ball handlers Koenig, Walton Jr, Ferrel, Trice, Archidiacano, and Heild. Let's look at the experience of Purdue's primary ball handlers.

Vince - senior, 91 career starts
PJ - senior, 60 career starts
Dakota - senior, 57 starts
Carsen - sophomore, 21 starts
Cline - junior, 7 starts
Eastern - freshman

You'd be hard pressed to find that much experience among any team's primary ball handlers. Purdue will be better in 2017. The evidence proves it.

That isn't evidence. Although I do agree we will be better than most suggest, it would be silly to think a team would improve by losing runner up for national player of the year and a first round pick. Could it happen? Sure. The team could rally around the seniors and the new guys could impress. Vince could play like a first round pick and we can somehow find minutes at the backup 4/5. Top 15 would likely be the ceiling.

Haas won't be coming off the bench to feast on the opposing teams second units, where he was very successful. He started before, and he will do a good job, but we won't have that beast coming off the bench. I do think Purdue exceeds expectations, but I don't see them being better. You might be able to sell me on equally as good. Purdue hopefully will not have to face a red hot team like Kansas and maybe they do make a run at the final four, but I still wouldn't say they were a better team. MSU weakness last year is their strength this year. Purdue's strength last year is their biggest question mark. I would be surprised if they repeat as Big Ten champs, and even if they found a way to win the Big Ten, there is little chance it would be by two games. I don't have the same expectation I have for last year, but that doesn't mean it would surprise me if they come together and shock the college basketball world!

 

[Dakota Girl]

From several months ago.
1. Won the Big Ten. Convincingly.
2. Yet the team became even better.
3. Drafted 26th. Big Ten Player of the Year & National Finalist.

I'm probably a touch slow but can you clarify

 

[WabashRiver]

You brought up one valid point. There's no proven depth at the 4/5. But evidence and basic logic suggest one of 7'3" Haarms, 6'10" Jacquil, 6-9 Ewing, or 6-8 Wheeler should be able to do a decent job. As for rebounding in general, everyone not named Biggie gets to hit the weights for a few months. Purdue didn't need to add any pieces to become a good shooting team in 2015. Purdue didn't need to add any pieces to become a good press breaking team in 2016. Players develop. That's the good thing about returning 85% of your rotation every year.

 

[tjreese]

That isn't evidence. Although I do agree we will be better than most suggest, it would be silly to think a team would improve by losing runner up for national player of the year and a first round pick. Could it happen? Sure. The team could rally around the seniors and the new guys could impress. Vince could play like a first round pick and we can somehow find minutes at the backup 4/5. Top 15 would likely be the ceiling.

Haas won't be coming off the bench to feast on the opposing teams second units, where he was very successful. He started before, and he will do a good job, but we won't have that beast coming off the bench. I do think Purdue exceeds expectations, but I don't see them being better. You might be able to sell me on equally as good. Purdue hopefully will not have to face a red hot team like Kansas and maybe they do make a run at the final four, but I still wouldn't say they were a better team. MSU weakness last year is their strength this year. Purdue's strength last year is their biggest question mark. I would be surprised if they repeat as Big Ten champs, and even if they found a way to win the Big Ten, there is little chance it would be by two games. I don't have the same expectation I have for last year, but that doesn't mean it would surprise me if they come together and shock the college basketball world!

I think Purdue can win the Big, but it will be tough and not sure they will be favored. I think a team can be better and have a poorer record. It wouldn't surprise me if the team did improve and had a poorer record and it is possible Purdue may not be as good and have as good a record. Lot of questions to be answered if Purdue is as good or better than this year, but there are some very interesting pieces that I'm eager to see how they mesh. Both sides of the coin have valid points

 

[WabashRiver]

2016 Purdue starters

PJ
Dakota
Carsen
Vince
Biggie

2017 Purdue starters

PJ
Dakota
Carsen
Vince
Haas

Not a ton of meshing going on, TJ. Not a big drop off from Biggie to a guy who's scored in double figures in close to 60% of his 41 career starts, Stick.

 

[tjreese]

2016 Purdue starters

PJ
Dakota
Carsen
Vince
Biggie

2017 Purdue starters

PJ
Dakota
Carsen
Vince
Haas

Not a ton of meshing going on, TJ. Not a big drop off from Biggie to a guy who's scored in double figures in close to 60% of his 41 career starts, Stick.

That is why Purdue will have a good team, but what I said about Eastern and Haarms "could" be huge...and may not be? I really like the potential they bring. How many 7'3" players can work the perimeter, can catch at the high post and possibly feed another huge 7 footer or play the 5 and spread the court. When fatigue settles in ..he is still 7'3". he may not do anything this year, but I really like the potential. Eastern has great size to be able to handle the ball and get in the lane (Vallentine?)...can he actually guard a 1 that wants to get in the lane and go over Purdue's smaller guards. Every year is a new year. Next years team will be different. There will not be teh dominant offensive player in Biggie down low, but I'm excited to see how this plays out. It will be hard pressed for Purdue to win teh Big without solid contributions from some or a few newcomers...just like they needed Carsen last year

 

[WabashRiver]

"Joined the team at the semester break, using his redshirt year. Went against Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan every day in practice. Has grown an inch and added about 20 pounds to his frame since his arrival at Purdue."

That's what makes Haarms exciting. Instead of being a complete unknown, getting on campus a semester early gives him a floor this year of being at least as useful in spots as a Tacos. Along with Jacquil, now you have 2 guys who've built B1G bodies that you can be comfortable putting in at the 4/5.

 

[tjreese]

"Joined the team at the semester break, using his redshirt year. Went against Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan every day in practice. Has grown an inch and added about 20 pounds to his frame since his arrival at Purdue."

That's what makes Haarms exciting. Instead of being a complete unknown, getting on campus a semester early gives him a floor this year of being at least as useful in spots as a Tacos. Along with Jacquil, now you have 2 guys who've built B1G bodies that you can be comfortable putting in at the 4/5.

All that is true and I "think" we will see Purdue able to have a big presence and still defend the 1/5 high ball screen...as well as various offensive things. Shoot, until I see them...I'm guessing like every person...but there does exist reasons based upon pieces that Purdue could be pretty darn good next year.

 

[mathboy]

Off the top of my head, I don't recall that prediction, but maybe your memory is better than mine. Thinking back on it, I'm not sure what basis I would have made that claim though. Granted, I did believe that AJ brought a lot to the table, but last off-season Purdue was returning it's best recruit in ages and bringing in a pretty talented player in CE. So a post player returning to steady the ship down low, and a good guard coming in to help alleviate what for a couple years had been the weak link - ball handling. That said, I guess it wouldn't have been that outrageous of a prediction if the prevailing thought was that Biggie was leaving after last year (which I personally thought he was).

Back to this season... should I interpret the bolded part of your cynical response to mean your projection for next season align with Wabash's, that Purdue is going to be better than 1st in B1G and S16 this coming year without CS?

First, let me apologize. My post came off more cynical than I intended. As I re-read the post, I thought I should have dampened it down a bit.

Second, a year ago this board was full of posters predicting doom because we lost AJ, "our only rim protector", etc. he fact was that the 2016 team was better than the 2015 team with AJ. It has more to do with the average maturity of the players, and little to do with specific individuals. I expect this year's team to be equal or better than the 2016 version for the same reason. Arguably, we exchange the powerful, yet turnover prone, Biggie for some talented freshmen. You could argue that the team is younger than 2016, but the starters are all very experienced.

Will the 2017 team achieve as much as the 2016 team? Maybe. MSU has brought some real talent, young but strong. They also have many returning players that were hurt last year. That means we might be better than our 2016 version, but might not win the BIG. Bottom line, we will miss Biggie, but the 2017 team will still be a great team without him.

 

[StickPurdue]

2016 Purdue starters

PJ
Dakota
Carsen
Vince
Biggie

2017 Purdue starters

PJ
Dakota
Carsen
Vince
Haas

Not a ton of meshing going on, TJ. Not a big drop off from Biggie to a guy who's scored in double figures in close to 60% of his 41 career starts, Stick.

The starting lineup isn't the issue. Haas is a person most teams would dream of having as a replacement for an all-American. A senior with experience and great size/numbers. My issue isn't with the starting lineup. It will be fine. It will take a slight step back, but it will have tons of senior leadership. The big question is the backup 4/5. We have players ready, but none are proven. If we improve, it isn't because Biggie left. It is because we added front court depth, our new guys made a difference, and Carsen improved.

 

[gd4now]

From my numbers you can see I do not post here often. But this is IMO BS. What the team needs to replace to equal last season is in easy reach. 18.5 point, 12.5 rebounds and 3 assists.

The team returns 6 or the 7 players who spent most of the time on the court. So if each of the 6 averages 3 more points, 2 more rebounds and and less than one more assist a game they will have provided this. That would just equal last season. I think several current players will exceed that.

This does not take into account anything the new additions may add to the total.

Do not get me wrong, Biggie was a monster, but his numbers can be replaced in a team effort.

 

[StickPurdue]

From my numbers you can see I do not post here often. But this is IMO BS. What the team needs to replace to equal last season is in easy reach. 18.5 point, 12.5 rebounds and 3 assists.

The team returns 6 or the 7 players who spent most of the time on the court. So if each of the 6 averages 3 more points, 2 more rebounds and and less than one more assist a game they will have provided this. That would just equal last season. I think several current players will exceed that.

This does not take into account anything the new additions may add to the total.

Do not get me wrong, Biggie was a monster, but his numbers can be replaced in a team effort.

Unless the other numbers were inflated because teams had to double team or scheme to keep the ball from getting inside, thus giving up open shots from deep allowing several players to eclipse .400 from three. Teams changed what they did defensively to adjust for Biggie.

Could we have the same numbers? Sure. Could we be better without him? It is very possible. However, it is logical to expect to take a step back when you lose the runner up for national player of the year and all of the depth at the five is in question. Not to mention the number of minutes that Haas will be able to handle due to conditiiniong or foul trouble.

There were people that thought we would take a step back after Ray Day and Hammons left. Dakota stepped up and stepped in as a lock down defender. Biggie moved to the 5 and replaced the loss of Hammons. We don't have to replace the defender, but Biggie is leaving a very large gap. Haas can fill it, but he needs to improve consistency and stay on the court. Haarms, Taylor, and Ewing all have the potential but they all have major question marks. Haarms wasn't highly rated and hasn't played yet, Taylor can't seem to stay healthy, and Ewing had average numbers in Juco.

Purdue should be a good team and I don't expect them to be outside of the top 25. How Eastern, Wheeler, Haarms, Ewing, and Carsen do will set the tone for the following year. Purdue needs to land a couple of the Plan A guys, but we still have a whole other season because we need to worry about that.

 

[nagemj02]

"The question is whether is service or or not. Can Taylor stay healthy, will Ewing truly be here in July and can he adapt to Big Ten ball instead of JC, and is Haarms truly as impressive as Painter has been saying. Haarms gained weight and already looks better. He could be serviceable at the 5."


SP, I agree that, personnel-wise, the big question mark is the post depth and whether any of the three you mentioned (assuming that Ewing does well-enough academically to enroll in July) can be consistently productive in their role(s) next season.


"The second big question is Wheeler. Can he fill out like Haarms and get meaningful minutes."


I don't think Wheeler has to do much filling out in order to get meaningful minutes. He's already more talented (which to me means: skills + athleticism) than most of his teammates. If he adjusts well to what he is being taught, he will be a regular in the rotation as a freshman.

 

[Boiler Buck]

From my numbers you can see I do not post here often. But this is IMO BS. What the team needs to replace to equal last season is in easy reach. 18.5 point, 12.5 rebounds and 3 assists.

The team returns 6 or the 7 players who spent most of the time on the court. So if each of the 6 averages 3 more points, 2 more rebounds and and less than one more assist a game they will have provided this. That would just equal last season. I think several current players will exceed that.

This does not take into account anything the new additions may add to the total.

Do not get me wrong, Biggie was a monster, but his numbers can be replaced in a team effort.

One guy is more than just numbers -- he causes great things for others due to his dominance, the attention the D gives him and by the chain reaction others do better than that.....who's to say without CS on the floor team & all he did for the individuals and team scoring goes down??.

 

[WabashRiver]

How good is Vince? It's impossible to tell since he's always had low usage. He's never finished higher than 4th in field goal attempts per minute at Purdue. Let's look for hints of his potential. As a freshman, he was B1G player of the week 3 times. In comparison, that's 2 more than Carsen, Hummel, or E'Twaun, and tied with Swanigan. That hints at super elite. As a sophomore, he was one of 16 finalists for the U19 team. He didn't make the 12 man final roster like Carsen or Biggie. That hints at elite, but not super elite. Elite players rarely stick around. Of the 15 other finalists that year, only 5 are still in school at a major university despite none running out of eligibility.

The film I've gone back and watched of last year showed that Vince was effective driving. His height and length made it look easy for him to get in the lane and get his shot off. He just rarely did it. "Vincent Edwards said Lutz was "in my ear ever since he got here," encouraging the senior forward to be more aggressive." With the evidence on film and hints of his elite, maybe even super elite talent from early in his career, I believe an aggressive Vince could have a season like Josh Hart had for Villanova last year.

 

[Dakota Girl]

One guy is more than just numbers -- he causes great things for others due to his dominance, the attention the D gives him and by the chain reaction others do better than that.....who's to say without CS on the floor team & all he did for the individuals and team scoring goes down??.

At this point it's speculation. Some assume positive change, while others assume a more negative view. We won't know who is right until they play some games. I personally think the s team gets better. Not a slight to Biggie. Just a nod to the impact of multiple seniors and a positive spin on the unknown new players. In the end I hope it's as entertaining as last season was to watch!

 

[cosmickid]

From my numbers you can see I do not post here often. But this is IMO BS. What the team needs to replace to equal last season is in easy reach. 18.5 point, 12.5 rebounds and 3 assists.

The team returns 6 or the 7 players who spent most of the time on the court. So if each of the 6 averages 3 more points, 2 more rebounds and and less than one more assist a game they will have provided this. That would just equal last season. I think several current players will exceed that.

This does not take into account anything the new additions may add to the total.

Do not get me wrong, Biggie was a monster, but his numbers can be replaced in a team effort.

"Unless the other numbers were inflated because teams had to double team or scheme to keep the ball from getting inside, thus giving up open shots from deep allowing several players to eclipse .400 from three. Teams changed what they did defensively to adjust for Biggie".

Ding ding ding we have a winner...No offense guys,I know you LOVE your team.But from the perspective of an opposing fan, WITHOUT Swannigan,that lineup is good,but not exactly scary good.His presence on the court,and even on the bench made players better than what they truly are.I think there'll be some exposure this year,but I could be wrong.We'll see...

 

[WabashRiver]

I re-watched the Iowa State game looking for more evidence of the 2017 team's potential. Specifically, P.J. vs. 1st team All Big 12 point guard Monte Morris. P.J. played a winning game. He only had 1 turnover in 34 minutes. He had clutch 3 with three minutes left when Purdue was trailing. He had even more clutch free throws with 7.7 seconds left. He kept bigs from scoring when he got stuck in bad switch. He got a steal off Morris and made a smart foul to stop a Morris fast break. His drives were effective, kicking out to wide open shooters and getting off a clean layup that went in and out.

Biggie made a LOT of plays. But he also missed 11 shots, had 3 turnovers, and earned a C- on defense. Far from irreplaceable. Vince showed a lot to get excited about. In two situations late in the shot clock he hit a long step back jumper and a driving floater. He accounted for 3 offensive rebounds in a span of 4 or 5 possessions, one he turned into a 3 point play. Also, Cline got an important steal in a 1 on 1 fast break.

There were two 3 minute stretches of game time when Biggie was on the bench. The first, Purdue outscored them 7-6. That lines up with all the other evidence I've seen of the 2014 class's dominance. The second, Iowa State outscored Purdue 12-5. Looks bad. But it doesn't count. Vince and Haas were never on the floor together during that stretch and they hit two 3s over Spike. Not a real sample of 2017 Purdue.

 

[WabashRiver]

I also re-watched the 2nd half and part of overtime of Purdue's B1G tournament loss to Michigan (cleaning out the DVR) I can sum it up in one 4 letter word: Haas. He had 17 points in only 15 minutes on 8 for 10 shooting. He also got both of Michigan's centers in foul trouble.

Swanigan was thoroughly dominated by one of their athletic bigs again. This time Wilson instead of Wagner. Neither Wilson or Wagner was able to score outside or inside against Haas's 9'3" standing reach one time. As I said, he has elite defensive potential. P.J. did a good job containing 2nd team All B1G point guard Walton Jr. Vince showed his elite offensive potential by driving past 1st round NBA pick Wilson on 2 straight possessions. He scored one and missed a clean layup. Dakota hit a clutch 3 in regulation like he always does. Carsen looked like Allen Iverson. But with all those pieces back Purdue won't be a Top 25 team

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

View embedded media

Real evidence instead of public perception to see how good Purdue will be next year. Starting at the 1:34:00 minute mark of this video, Purdue trails by 1 with 2 minutes left in the 1st overtime of an NCAA tournament game. Swanigan is on the bench with his usual turnover problems. Hammons is exhausted. Raphael is useless with a bum knee. Purdue's primary ball handlers for the remainder of the game are underclassmen Vince, Dakota, and Cline. Every point on offense is either a basket or an assist by these 3. They end up losing by a single basket in the 2nd overtime. Those 3 play even with a 30 win team for 7 pressure filled minutes. Now, imagine them after two more full years of training and big game experience.

Great point here

 

[nagemj02]

"Purdue didn't need to add any pieces to become a good shooting team in 2015. Purdue didn't need to add any pieces to become a good press breaking team in 2016. Players develop. That's the good thing about returning 85% of your rotation every year."

WR, many of the 2014 guys have definitely developed and improved (besides Swanigan, Thompson has been one of the best examples in the program in several years of a player that gets the absolute most out of his ability level) but Cline did help bolster the team's perimeter shooting in '15-'16 (and this past season) and C. Edwards definitely helped in improving Purdue's success rate when it came to breaking full-court presses this past season. I agree with your general theme but there are a few outliers.

 

[WabashRiver]

True, there are outliers. But they don't matter. In 2015, PJ, Dakota, Raphael, and Vince all significantly increased their 3 point % compared to 2014. They didn't need Cline to become a good shooting team. Just like the 2017 team doesn't need any new additions to be a good rebounding team without Biggie. They just need to all get stronger and focus on making the effort. Helps that they're bringing in a lot of really tall outliers.

 

[ThreeTwaunMoore]

But last year he was as much a liability as a legend. Purdue will be better in 2017. Substantially.

Swanigan was a first team All-American. It's borderline insane to say we will be substantially better without him. As much a liability as a legend. Now, that is insane. Yeah, he wasn't great on defense, but his defensive rebounding was elite. Go back and watch some of our games and see how much he carried us on offense. At MSU, at Maryland, vs. Iowa State in tourney, the list goes on and on, nobody has proven on our team right now they can make those shots and plays down the stretch like he did. He created a lot of shots and space for our shooters on the perimeter. Things are going to get a lot tougher when certain guys are asked to manufacture stuff on their own. We still have a good team, but don't be ridiculous.

 

[Dakota Girl]

"Unless the other numbers were inflated because teams had to double team or scheme to keep the ball from getting inside, thus giving up open shots from deep allowing several players to eclipse .400 from three. Teams changed what they did defensively to adjust for Biggie".

Ding ding ding we have a winner...No offense guys,I know you LOVE your team.But from the perspective of an opposing fan, WITHOUT Swannigan,that lineup is good,but not exactly scary good.His presence on the court,and even on the bench made players better than what they truly are.I think there'll be some exposure this year,but I could be wrong.We'll see...

Cosmic. You don't think teams are capable of evolving from year to year as players move on. It happens all the time all over the country. This fact that you are a fan of another team makes it more challenging for you to see what that evolution may be. This team will start four seniors. One of which was the best player on the team during the NCAA tournament (Vince). Haas will be taking Swannigans position in the starting lineup. He is one of the most efficient scorers in the country. I am more concerned about the backups in the post as they are unproven. Every team has young players who will improve, some surprising even their fans. Then there are the freshmen. If we lost 4 or 5 players I would agree but one is not the end of the world.

 

[todd brewster]

The MVP for the Boilermakers this year can be Biggie. Biggie made an example of what it takes to be a 1st round pick. Not only did he practice all the time as a gym rat, but he did additional time in the weight room working on his strength and quickness. However, his biggest contribution will be his focus on going after every rebound.

Isaac Haas, I hope you are reading this!

From what I have read, you are an outstanding young man who is soaking up the college life an everyone likes you kind, jovial manner; BUT now it is time to get serious.

Focus on what you do best and work on taking more jump shots up to 15 feet and work on a left hand hook in close.

MOST important, go after every rebound. Power through to get every defensive board and use the swim move to at least deflect every offensive board.

Matt Painter, I hope you are reading this. Tell Haas that you expect him to play 30 minutes every game and getting aggressive and picking up fouls will not be a deterrent. This year you have some length on the bench and you will rather see him dominate when in the game.

We have 4 starters returning and I am expecting big things from them, but the key will be the explosion of Haas. A key game last year was Vermont. Haas did not put up great stats, but see how we dominated when he was in the game against players must quicker than he. They may be quicker, but it takes longer to get away from Haas.

 

[WabashRiver]

How good is Cline? "Officially faster than @DMathias31 " That's a tweet from Cline from May. Here's what we know about him: He's 2 inches taller than Mathias, he's got a longer reach than Mathias, he's faster than Mathias, and he has a better career 3 point % and assist to turnover ratio than Mathias.

But he's never had a season close to as good as Mathias's junior year: over 45% from 3 and 1st team B1G all defense. Cline will be a junior. From the film I've re-watched, there were times when Cline looked like he doesn't have it physically. Sharpshooting Thomas from Iowa State scoring on him repeatedly, Jackson from Kansas rebounding over him. I saw a flash of potential. A wraparound steal against a quick player that was similar to a steal by Dakota. We already know Cline has physical advantages over Dakota. I believe with another full offseason to work on all the little things, Cline will match or exceed Dakota's junior year production. Purdue will be better in 2017.

 

[boilerbusdriver]

How good is Cline? "Officially faster than @DMathias31 " That's a tweet from Cline from May. Here's what we know about him: He's 2 inches taller than Mathias, he's got a longer reach than Mathias, he's faster than Mathias, and he has a better career 3 point % and assist to turnover ratio than Mathias.

But he's never had a season close to as good as Mathias's junior year: over 45% from 3 and 1st team B1G all defense. Cline will be a junior. From the film I've re-watched, there were times when Cline looked like he doesn't have it physically. Sharpshooting Thomas from Iowa State scoring on him repeatedly, Jackson from Kansas rebounding over him. I saw a flash of potential. A wraparound steal against a quick player that was similar to a steal by Dakota. We already know Cline has physical advantages over Dakota. I believe with another full offseason to work on all the little things, Cline will match or exceed Dakota's junior year production. Purdue will be better in 2017.

I hope your right about Mr. Cline, he needs all areas of his game to improve, Big Time IMO, lateral quickness should be worked on every day till he can't move anymore, guys go around him like he has a pair of those "Al Capone" Cement shoes on. Big gains should be made between your Soph. and Junior seasons, I am certainly pulling for him, the better he is, the better Purdue is!!