Managing expectations...

[bonefish1]

Assuming Biggie goes and VE stays, what would be considered a successful season for this new look team?
Top 1/4 Big 10 finish
Top 25 ranking most of the year
Sweet 16.

I think the starting 4 of CE, VE, DM, IH + Thompson or someone else can be pretty effective but there's not much experience behind that.

 

[boilerzz]

If Biggie stays, I'd expect a top 2 B1G finish and at least a Sweet Sixteen. I'd think our ceiling would be B1G championship and Final Four appearance.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

My expectations never change no matter the season:

Win the regular season championship, get to the BTT Championship Game, get to the second weekend of the NCAA Tourney. You can still have a successful season and not attain those goals...but that should be the expectations at Purdue every single year.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Managing expectations..... does this come with a Purdue degree as Boilers other than JDB above seem to revel (or should I say wallow) in this ability?

I must have missed that class-as I am with JDB.

 

[Wolegib]

my expectations are about the same with or without Biggie. I see a top 4 finish in the BIG 10, top 20 team, and reaching the sweet 16. that should always be our expectations and our floor. We should be able to tell any recruit that. We do have a possible higher ceiling.

With that as a floor, match-ups and injuries will dictate if we surpass and exceed those expectations.. Once making the sweet 16, every team is tough. If we didn't play Kansas, Gonzaga would have also presented match-up problems. UNC was tough. We all knew Michigan can be tough. and UW is tough. All teams that make the sweet 16 are tough. Making the elite 8 is hard. Making the final four is a dream. Purdue is never going to have five 5* starters. So they have to play a perfect game to win, and out coach the opponent. guys like Self, Izzo, Calipari, Coach K etc are not usually outcoached. So our players would have to be perfect to advance over more talented teams, or get lucky that an opponent suffers a very bad day or injury. And predictions should not be made based on an opposing team losing their star player. . I'm not saying it can't be done. But it would be an upset , and not something anyone would 'expect' to happen.

I "expect" Cleveland to beat Boston. Cleveland and LeBron have a history of making the NBA finals. Purdue does not. Therefore, I don't expect Purdue to go any further than the sweet 16. I have hopes and dreams, but not expectations.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

now someone will jump in to tell me I'm a loser because I have high expectations for others and I should just worry about myself! 3...2...1...

 

[New Pal Boiler]

now someone will jump in to tell me I'm a loser because I have high expectations for others and I should just worry about myself! 3...2...1...

Why are you a Painter-hating NegaTwitt ninnymuggins?

 

[BBG]

Why are you a Painter-hating NegaTwitt ninnymuggins?

Ninnymuggins might be my new favorite word.

 

[BBG]

My expectations are the same every year, a Final Four. I don't care who is on the team that should be the expectation regardless.

Now am I going to run around punting midgets if we don't make it? No. Disappointed though? Most certainly.

 

[bnsummers]

My expectations are the same every year, a Final Four. I don't care who is on the team that should be the expectation regardless.

Now am I going to run around punting midgets if we don't make it? No. Disappointed though? Most certainly.

Now BBG, don't go being a midget punting negatwitt ninnymuggins......

 

[Dakota Girl]

Managing expectations..... does this come with a Purdue degree as Boilers other than JDB above seem to revel (or should I say wallow) in this ability?

I must have missed that class-as I am with JDB.

Are you yelling at me? No wait...is bold yelling or is CAPS yelling? If both are true is BOLD CAPS screaming? What if you add italics or underline. HOLY CRAP THAT MAKES ME MAD!
By the way I too think JDB is on target. I would say that an alternate opening question is "what's your over under guess on a top 2 big finish, big tourney championship game, and sweet 16?"
I think we win the reg, runner up in the big T, and catch a break to get to the great eight.

 

[Inkjet200]

Ever since the Baby Boilers made it to the Sweet 16 while I was a student, my expectations have been Elite Eight. However, I don't get disappointed anymore when any of the Boiler teams fall short.

 

[reswat]

 

[*4purdue*]

With Biggie - top 5
W/O top 20

 

[bonefish1]

My expectations are the same every year, a Final Four. I don't care who is on the team that should be the expectation regardless.

Now am I going to run around punting midgets if we don't make it? No. Disappointed though? Most certainly.

Punting midgets? Is that an example of a 'micro aggression?" (Thank you Tim Allen)

 

[WabashRiver]

From roughly the 23 to 31 minute mark, 4 members of the 2014 class are on court together. As freshmen. In an NCAA tournament game. No Hammons. No Biggie. During that stretch they outscore an athletic 8 seed. But 4 years later when they're all seniors they won't be a top 25 team

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

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From roughly the 23 to 31 minute mark, 4 members of the 2014 class are on court together. As freshmen. In an NCAA tournament game. No Hammons. No Biggie. During that stretch they outscore an athletic 8 seed. But 4 years later when they're all seniors they won't be a top 25 team

There definitely is some good experience with that class.....and

At least it's not NCAA football, which where you start in the rankings means just about everything. If this team is good enough, it will show, and they'll get noticed. The schedule has enough opportunities, plus, with the right attitude and focus.....it can be quite a motivating force.....call it whatever you want...."playing with a chip on your shoulder," "prove the experts wrong," etc.

No need to get caught up with the pre-season rankings...however they shake out...JMHO

You can't totally replace what Caleb Swanigan brought, in terms of production and drive....however, this will be a different and more flexible team with match-ups.....perhaps better suited to make a better run with the right match-ups......perhaps not. It will be interesting to see the differences over the next couple of years, and if CMP can keep the recruiting on the up-swing to maximize the potential.

 

[Wolegib]

looking around, I see a top 3 BIG 10 finish, a sweet 16, and top ranking. anything above that depends on the match-ups and injuries. Last year's team was a great team. This year's team is loaded with talent and experience. But once you make the sweet 16, every team and every game is tough. Purdue may have reached the final 8 or final 4 last year if they didn't have to play Kansas at Kansas City. before predicting any final 4 appearance, I'd want to see the bracket with locations first.

They talk about window of opportunity. the window is certainly open.

 

[nagemj02]

bonefish, are you actually managing expectations or are you subconsciously implementing a defeatist attitude as a way to shield yourself from any possible disappointment in the coming season? This is too often (i.e. many examples) the psychology of Purdue sports fans: gravitating towards playing the role of "victims" or defeatists, for some reason or another.

As far as the rotation goes, there are already eight guys that are pretty much (assuming they "stay the course") locks:

Thompson
C. Edwards
Mathias
V. Edwards
Haas
Eastern
Cline
Wheeler

We'll see how the regularity of PT shakes out for Taylor, Ewing, Haarms, and Stefanovic.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

bonefish, are you actually managing expectations or are you subconsciously implementing a defeatist attitude as a way to shield yourself from any possible disappointment in the coming season? This is too often (i.e. many examples) the psychology of Purdue sports fans: gravitating towards playing the role of "victims" or defeatists, for some reason or another.

As far as the rotation goes, there are already eight guys that are pretty much (assuming they "stay the course") locks:

Thompson
C.Edwards
Mathias
V. Edwards
Haas
Eastern
Cline
Wheeler

We'll see how the regularity of PT shakes out for Taylor, Ewing, Haarms, and Stefanovic.

How are Haarms and Taylor not locks for playing time when they are the primary backups are center? Yet you have Wheeler as a lock? Come on...

 

[nagemj02]

How are Haarms and Taylor not locks for playing time when they are the primary backups are center? Yet you have Wheeler as a lock? Come on...

I believe that Wheeler is a better player than both of them right now. If Painter wants to play "positionless" basketball (as someone else suggested that he might be moving towards that with this 2017 class), the need for multiple centers is not as urgent as it was in the past.

 

[bwebb32]

How are Haarms and Taylor not locks for playing time when they are the primary backups are center? Yet you have Wheeler as a lock? Come on...

Well, how could you consider Taylor a lock for anything?! No offense to him intended, but he can't stay healthy, and when he was, he still rarely played. Hopefully his body holds up this year; gotta be frustrating for him.

 

[boilerzz]

Well, how could you consider Taylor a lock for anything?! No offense to him intended, but he can't stay healthy, and when he was, he still rarely played. Hopefully his body holds up this year; gotta be frustrating for him.

I think you have to assume one of Haarms/Taylor is a lock. If Taylor is healthy, he gets the nod most likely. If not, Haarms will likely be forced into a role regardless of whether he is ready. The only other option is to have Purdue go small with Vince and Ewing at the 4 and 5 when Haas sits and I think that is likely the least attractive option of the three.

Wheeler plays a position that Purdue has some flexibility so while he may have some upside, the fact that he is raw and playing a deeper position makes him far from a lock when it comes to consistent playing time IMO.

 

[WabashRiver]

I'll give you a few reasons why Taylor will play ahead of Ewing or Wheeler. He's bigger. He's stronger. He has years more experience against D1 competition.

 

[Boiler Buck]

I'll give you a few reasons why Taylor will play ahead of Ewing or Wheeler. He's bigger. He's stronger. He has years more experience against D1 competition.

If healthy - I think Taylor offers position-less flexibility as he has been quick enough to stay with most front-liners. However, even though quick enough, sometimes in the past he gets confused on D, and also has big lapses where he lets his guy go.

Thus, in all these guys....old or new, D will be what gets them floor time....unless they are some offensive beast which I do not look for any of Ewing, Taylor, Wheeler or even Haarms to be.

 

[boilerzz]

If healthy - I think Taylor offers position-less flexibility as he has been quick enough to stay with most front-liners. However, even though quick enough, sometimes in the past he gets confused on D, and also has big lapses where he lets his guy go.

Thus, in all these guys....old or new, D will be what gets them floor time....unless they are some offensive beast which I do not look for any of Ewing, Taylor, Wheeler or even Haarms to be.

I think he is going to benefit from the WUG practices. The last three years, he's been trying to defend bigger, slower guys (Hammons, Haas and Biggie). Now, he is still trying to check Haas but also is having to defend Haarms and Ewing (once he gets here). That will make him less likely to be unaccustomed to defending quicker players next season.

 

[WabashRiver]

Sports reference has an advanced stat called OBPM. It basically measures how many points a player is responsible for per minute. Biggie was not #1. He was #4 behind Vince, PJ, and Dakota. More evidence that Purdue shouldn't be ranked in the preseason top 25

Interestingly, PJ, Vince, and Dakota also ranked #1-3 for the 2015 season. The 2014 class won't just go down as one of the winningest Purdue classes of all time, but also the most underrated.

 

[Statey]

I'll give you a few reasons why Taylor will play ahead of Ewing or Wheeler. He's bigger. He's stronger. He has years more experience against D1 competition.

That's a stretch. He has years more experience observing D1 competition. With all his minutes combined, he's played less than 3 games at this level. Sure, the practice time and coaching he's received has got to count for something, but "experience", I dunno.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I believe that Wheeler is a better player than both of them right now. If Painter wants to play "positionless" basketball as someone else suggested he might be moving towards that with this 2017 class, the need for multiple centers is not as urgent as it was in the past.

Nags, I know you can't hear me but I think you may be right. I could see one of either Taylor or Haarms get shut out for minutes if Wheeler plays well and the matchup isn't an extreme size player. So many variables.

 

[WabashRiver]

Wheeler also has to beat out Ewing, who is similarly athletic and also bigger and more experienced than him. Freshmen routinely struggle in March. Carsen's 1-10 no assist game vs. Kansas is a perfect example. Hopefully the veterans man up and win all the big minutes.

 

[mathboy]

Sports reference has an advanced stat called OBPM. It basically measures how many points a player is responsible for per minute. Biggie was not #1. He was #4 behind Vince, PJ, and Dakota. More evidence that Purdue shouldn't be ranked in the preseason top 25

Interestingly, PJ, Vince, and Dakota also ranked #1-3 for the 2015 season. The 2014 class won't just go down as one of the winningest Purdue classes of all time, but also the most underrated.

Maybe I misread your post. You are saying that because Biggie was the 4th most productive player, behind our other returning players, losing him means we should NOT be top 25? Sorry, but I am having trouble following that logic. If our top 4 scoring players return, then we should be top 25, right? Did you mistype, or have I lost something of your logic?

 

[Boilermaker]

Maybe I misread your post. You are saying that because Biggie was the 4th most productive player, behind our other returning players, losing him means we should NOT be top 25? Sorry, but I am having trouble following that logic. If our top 4 scoring players return, then we should be top 25, right? Did you mistype, or have I lost something of your logic?

He is being facetious (hence the wink face)

 

[WabashRiver]

I rewatched the opening minutes of the Kansas game. Purdue's first 4 possessions went to Swanigan. He airballed a shot in the paint, couldn't score when Vince hit him wide open under the basket, and turned it over twice. Purdue still jumped out to an 8-2 lead because of a great coast to coast drive by Cline, a P.J. 3 assisted by Dakota, and a Vince 3 assisted by Cline.

Then I looked up more advanced stats on Sports Reference. They mirrored what I saw in the game. Swanigan's adjusted FG% was behind Dakota, PJ, Cline, and Haas. His assist% was behind Vince and Dakota. But he did lead the team in turnover %. The more I look back, the more it makes sense that ESPN left Purdue out of their preseason top 25 because of the loss of Biggie

 

[BoilerDaddy]

I rewatched the opening minutes of the Kansas game. Purdue's first 4 possessions went to Swanigan. He airballed a shot in the paint, couldn't score when Vince hit him wide open under the basket, and turned it over twice. Purdue still jumped out to an 8-2 lead because of a great coast to coast drive by Cline, a P.J. 3 assisted by Dakota, and a Vince 3 assisted by Cline.

Then I looked up more advanced stats on Sports Reference. They mirrored what I saw in the game. Swanigan's adjusted FG% was behind Dakota, PJ, Cline, and Haas. His assist% was behind Vince and Dakota. But he did lead the team in turnover %. The more I look back, the more it makes sense that ESPN left Purdue out of their preseason top 25 because of the loss of Biggie

On the other hand, Swanigan led the team in overall BPM and in DBPM by a wide margin. What he did better than anyone else in the country was control the defensive boards. He's a big loss.

 

[WabashRiver]

On the other hand, Swanigan led the team in overall BPM and in DBPM by a wide margin. What he did better than anyone else in the country was control the defensive boards. He's a big loss.

In 2015, Hammons led the team in overall BPM and DBPM and unlike Biggie also led in adjusted FG% and not in turnover%. He was a bigger loss. Purdue still improved in 2016. Purdue will improve even more in 2017.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Purdue will improve even more in 2017.

Good, that means elite 8 then or better....

 

[FLAG HUNTER]

I actually was not a big fan of the offense when Hammons played, seemed like the ball had to go to him every time down the floor some games , and the other players stood around. I thought Purdue played better when everyone got in the flow of the game and only went to Hammons when open. Just my opinion and no I don't feel like going back and looking at stats for a couple hours to verify it.

 

[tjreese]

Good, that means elite 8 then or better....

perhaps..perhaps not. Purdue "could" improve and if it did, other teams could improve more. I like statistics but cautious in basketball with them due to so many things confounded and conflicted in isolating effects and interactions.

I "think" I'm going to really like this team, but won't have much of an idea until august 11 adn 12 if then...

 

[WabashRiver]

You must work for ESPN.

 

[WabashRiver]

Real evidence instead of public perception to see how good Purdue will be next year. Starting at the 1:34:00 minute mark of this video, Purdue trails by 1 with 2 minutes left in the 1st overtime of an NCAA tournament game. Swanigan is on the bench with his usual turnover problems. Hammons is exhausted. Raphael is useless with a bum knee. Purdue's primary ball handlers for the remainder of the game are underclassmen Vince, Dakota, and Cline. Every point on offense is either a basket or an assist by these 3. They end up losing by a single basket in the 2nd overtime. Those 3 play even with a 30 win team for 7 pressure filled minutes. Now, imagine them after two more full years of training and big game experience.