Line on Louisville game
- Thread starter gbmhoosier
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I thought I saw 22 points. But I would be very disappointed if we lost by more than that. I think that's a lot of points.
That's a lot unless Petrino wants to curbstomp us. I expect this game to be over around middle to end of the 3rd which would having us play against their 2nd and 3rd stringers the rest of the way. Now if this was a Hazell coached team I would expect their 3rd stringers to put up 3 more scores after the fact, but I'm giving this staff the benefit of the doubt.
I think if Petrino get up big...let's say 21-24, I bet he tries to keep it there out of respect for a guy from his coaching tree who helped him get back to major college football in Brohm. If Purdue can some how keep it to within 18, I personally see that as a moral victory in the first game with what is known as the best player in college football. I know there are no moral victories but considering the first game for a program in this situation should be against a MAC, Sun Belt, or Mountain West team that could get a W on the board....I'll be happy with a moral victory. If Purdue looks like they are composed, well coached, and the effort level is high (all the things we didn't see in Hazell's first game at Cinncy), I'll be very excited.
one of the biggest aspects of this game to me is if the new staff can prevent the post halftime malaize of the previous teams.
I think the game will start out tight because no one will know what to expect out of the gate from us, after that they pull away and that spread seems about right.
I will say if the game is tight throughout, that would really give some optimism for the rest of the season.
I will say if the game is tight throughout, that would really give some optimism for the rest of the season.
And I doubt Petrino will run the score up on Brohm if given the opportunity. Of course it is Petrino, so who knows.
The Eclipse event shades my judgement. Purdue loses late in the 4 qtr due to a turnover by 7 pts. Lamar Jackson is contained most of the day and doesn't fun run all over us. He is held to less than 100 yards.
I would love to see Purdue contain him and ruin his Jr Year campaign for Heisman right out of the gate, but I doubt we have the stamina to contain him all day.
I would love to see Purdue contain him and ruin his Jr Year campaign for Heisman right out of the gate, but I doubt we have the stamina to contain him all day.
Teams figured out last year that if you crowd the box and blitz a lot against Louisville that their offense really struggled which is why they lost their last 3. Who knows if they will handle it better this year, but I definitely foresee Holts defense trying to find out...especially with our experienced linebackers.
I'm guessing Petrino is not looking forward to this game at all, facing a former coach on a nuetral field.
I'm guessing Petrino is not looking forward to this game at all, facing a former coach on a nuetral field.
Petrino knows the very competitive nature of Coach Brohm, I'm sure he is telling his Louisville team, better not take PU for granted. Brohm will have our Boilers playing hard till the final whistle, victory who knows, prolly won't be us, but I do know that when the game is over, Louisville will no doubt know they were in a fight, Big Time! I really believe Purdue will give a very good showing of themselves, something we haven't seen here for a while.
Let's Play Football!!
Let's Play Football!!
I suspect you may be giving Petrino too much credit. I believe the final score will likely be a 17-21 point defeat for Purdue, but not because UofL will let off the gas.
Agree here but because defenses usually have the advantage early on in the football season due to an offense needing more time to work on actual game speed timing...especially if it is an offense heavily reliant on timing.
Charlotte and Syracuse were probably two teams Purdue could have beaten last year. Again, competition level matters but when big teams tend to play at the start of a season...the defense tends to have an advantage. Which is why LSU has always looked damn good early on in the season...that defense has been incredibly solid for over a decade and has made some of their pathetic offenses look much better.
So I went and looked at Charlotte and Syracuse last season as we were pretty terrible.
I won't comment on whether we could have beat either team or not, but I did want to point our that Syracuse lost a game 61-76 in regulation.
Meaningless. Lines are set for the flow of cash. This one could move more than 3 points as I am assuming more $$$ will on Purdue thus straddle could be a good bet. I read an MBA's thesis on lines moving more than 3 points. That is the ONLY way to win long term BUT, that happens infrequently.
This shows how far we have fallen. We fear Louisville.
And Purdue beat Nebraska a few years ago 55-45. A bad team can simply be a bad matchup for another team and have success. Also, that 55 on Nebraska was the high scoring total for a single game under Hazell.
Actually Louisville's defense is probably a stronger unit than their offense. The offense can be slowed down but you have to put up points.
I wasn't using that as an example of if they were good or bad, it was more of a "gee that is a bizarre score" statement.
I'd like us to at least beat the spread. If we can actually keep it competitive going into the fourth, I'd be ecstatic.
2015 the played TCU who ended the year 11-2 and won the Alamo Bowl against Oregon.
Purdue can win this game, but we need some things to go our way. Last year, Louisville had a bad OL and gave up a lot of TFL and sacks. Jackson became more TO prone as last season wore on.
I agree with Holt trying to figure out how to contain Jackson. That will be a key. Purdue can't let him beat us with his legs. If he breaks some long runs, Purdue is cooked.
No, they are only ranked #16 and have the returning Heisman winner. Nothing to worry about...
No kidding. Petrino's UL program is easily top 5 in the ACC. Think Florida St., Clemson, or Miami. For years their AD has been crafting his chess game while ours was playing checkers.
Not a correct analogy. Checkers is way too complicated a game for our former AD.
Louisville lost their last 3 games in 2016. Two were 20 pt losses and the other was by 3 to Kentucky, which was not a great team.
I think that Purdue can be competitive here. I think that the spread is way to high. I recognize that the betting lines are efficient, but I also know that there are market inefficiencies.
Bettors are looking at the Hazell era and seeing a poor team with unimaginative coaching. I believe that this is not the case at present.
Purdue is at home, I suspect that Louisville is very confident, perhaps overly so. I can see an upset. One thing that I do not want is any major upsets on Thursday and Friday that can be pointed out by Petrino to his team. It would help is O$U smacks IU on Thursday as I want Louisville very confident.
I think that Purdue can be competitive here. I think that the spread is way to high. I recognize that the betting lines are efficient, but I also know that there are market inefficiencies.
Bettors are looking at the Hazell era and seeing a poor team with unimaginative coaching. I believe that this is not the case at present.
Purdue is at home, I suspect that Louisville is very confident, perhaps overly so. I can see an upset. One thing that I do not want is any major upsets on Thursday and Friday that can be pointed out by Petrino to his team. It would help is O$U smacks IU on Thursday as I want Louisville very confident.
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