IU - making dreams come true
- Thread starter indy35
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I believe he means Cam Williams, 4* LB from Andrean last year who had some academic hurdles.
After a terrible start this has turned into a great thread. Nice to see we can have a civil discussion. Iu board take note.
"Narrow victories" is distorted by a lot of late scores allowed in a prevent mode. IU was down three TD's with under eight minutes to go in 2017. They made a late surge to make it look respectable, but never had the ball with a chance to tie. Last year they were down two TD's with under four minutes to go. They got within seven, but once again never had the ball with a chance to tie.
Purdue has won convincingly, if not decisively with what many consider lessor talent. That equation is changing and I wouldn't want to be an IU fan while Brohm is here. He has the decisive schematic advantage Fat Charlie always dreamed about and the talent at the skill positions to make it happen.
I believe IU scored a TD with under 2 minutes in both the 2017 and 2018 games. Purdue was in no danger at the end of either of those "narrow victories"
Are you comparing Points Against to Total Defense? Because neither of those is an apt description of S&P+..
Let's make it simple to match the room:
1 Clemson
2 Mississippi St.
3 Fresno St.
4 Appalachian St.
5 Washington
1 Mississippi St.
2 Michigan St.
3 Clemson
4 Washington
5 LSU
Which list, to you, is more accurate for Best Defenses in the country? Or put another way, if you were Purdue, would you rather have Fresno St.'s players or Michigan St.'s players? I'll rest my case here because anybody saying Fresno is lying through their teeth.
Nonsense
How many did OSU lay on you guys?
Iowa??
Your stupid S&P is flawed. IU runs up stats against shite teams.
S&P+ isn't his... and yes it is flawed. But no less flawed then looking at simple statistics like yards per game. Purdue has been the better team since Brohm showed up, IU has had the better defense Purdue the better offense. Which makes complete sense looking at the head coaches.
If only there was a metric that took that into account............ oh wait that's the S&P+
Looks like we can continue our discussion a little longer. We just picked up a 2* LB from New Jersey with MAC level offers. Looks like an under-the-radar, diamond in the rough to me (TIC). He appears to fit the rangy, athletic mold that we’ve favored with linebacker recruits.
Let's make it simple for iu fans. Against similar competition - in Big Ten conference games only Purdue has had a better defense than iu the last 2 years. Per game conference only stats are:
(2017)
Scoring D: P - 19.2 iu - 30.0
Total D: P - 369.8 iu - 362.0
Rush D: P - 134.6 iu - 166.0
Pass D: P - 235.2 iu - 196.0
(2018)
Scoring D: P - 28.2 iu - 33.9
Total D: P - 449.4 iu - 457.4
Rush D: P - 176.4 iu - 181.8
Pass D: P - 271.0 iu - 275.7
The "top 25" defense you cite earlier has largely been built upon a ridiculously weak non - conference schedule. Only 2 games versus P5 conference teams in the last two years. What's amazing is that it gets even easier moving forward with ZERO P5 conference teams on the iu non - conference schedule for the foreseeable future.
[QUOTE=Let's make it simple to match the room:
(2017)
Scoring D: P - 19.2 iu - 30.0
Total D: P - 369.8 iu - 362.0
Rush D: P - 134.6 iu - 166.0
Pass D: P - 235.2 iu - 196.0
(2018)
Scoring D: P - 28.2 iu - 33.9
Total D: P - 449.4 iu - 457.4
Rush D: P - 176.4 iu - 181.8
Pass D: P - 271.0 iu - 275.7
The "top 25" defense you cite earlier has largely been built upon a ridiculously weak non - conference schedule. Only 2 games versus P5 conference teams in the last two years. What's amazing is that it gets even easier moving forward with ZERO P5 conference teams on the iu non - conference schedule for the foreseeable future.
[QUOTE=Let's make it simple to match the room:
I'll say it again for the slowest of the board: The S&P+ takes all of that into account. It handicaps/weights results based on opponents.
So no. The top 25 (no quotations needed) defense was not built on a ridiculously weak non-conference.
I apologize if I'm repeating myself but if Purdue is taking him at this point in the process, that tells you that the staff fully believes he will be a productive B1G player, regardless of his lack of power 5 offers. If you trust your staff, which Purdue fans clearly do, then this is a good commitment.
Agreed. His grandpa is a Purdue legacy who played in the NFL and the staff must have liked what they saw.
S&P is inherently flawed and based on judgment
Here is all I need to know
pts scored vs IU
Iowa 42
OSU 49
MSU 35
It’s score bad Purdue
Iowa 36
OSU 20
MSU 23
If S&P has metrics saying IU has a better D, then you might want ignore S&P. It’s just numbers at this point with no validation or evidence to support
How should we interpret the 63 against Auburn? Puts you right on par with 4-7, FCS Alabama State.
They would have to make a bowl game or possibly beat us.
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So FCS Alabama State could beat IU comfortably too?
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Nonsense
These metrics work in small leagues. In any normal metric an argument can be made that Purdue has a better defense.
You want to compare apples and oranges, while I am comparing similar opponents. In which the Purdue defense fared better every time!
You conveniently left Minnesota off your list, so that last line isn't true.
If you truly believe that cherry-picking 1 number from 3 games is a more comprehensive comparison than the S&P+ then more power to you brother.
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crap like the S&P is for losers to count.
Like... "the popular vote"
Or, most runs in a series.
What matters is the W's and L's.
Exactly
It’s a feel good metric. IU being 25 is virtually no difference from Purdue being 32.
But when you watch the game it’s clear who was the better defense.
So the iu defense is good? Top 25 is usually at least considered good, right? Yet the last 2 years have resulted in 30 and 33.9 points against averages per game in the Big Ten and at or near bottom of the conference rankings. S+P attempts to take into account opponent strength but, in my opinion not very successfully.
If you're happy with your supposed top 25 defense that's fine. It sure hasn't helped to produce a bowl game, or even a 3 win conference season the past 2 years.
If you're happy with your supposed top 25 defense that's fine. It sure hasn't helped to produce a bowl game, or even a 3 win conference season the past 2 years.
I remember a "Top 25 Defense" being (literally!) dragged into the end zone.
yeah.... that D... man, that's a STOUT defense.
Markell says "hello".
(I think he's still running.)
I'm no expert on the analytics but my take on IU's defense a year ago is that it reflected its youth, inconsistent through the season and within the games themselves. It played really well at times but was ultimately exposed in critical moments against good offenses.
I do think last year will serve as a positive stepping stone for this upcoming season and that this year's defense will be better and more consistently so.
I do think last year will serve as a positive stepping stone for this upcoming season and that this year's defense will be better and more consistently so.
