Is the Only Pathway to Final Four as a #1 or #2 Seed?

[Statey]

I'm not looking at PU or any other individual team. Just looking at the numbers from the past 32 tournaments. The #4 seed has a 15% better win % than the #5 seed in the first round. #1 and #2 seeds have won more titles then all other seeds combined. Things like that. It isn't a "cake walk" for anyone, no argument there. But history suggests strongly that your odds of getting to the FF are better with the higher your seed #. That is all I have been saying. For some reason people want to dismiss the seeding #'s like they have no bearing. I don't understand why? Maybe they confuse this position with one where I'm saying "If only PU would have gotten a higher seed they would have gone further". I'm not taking that position at all. This has nothing to do with PU or any particular team.

Not to split hairs, but I think history suggests that being a better team increases your odds of getting to the FF. I think the selection committee gets a heck of a lot more right than they do wrong, so it makes perfect sense that better seeds advance further historically... because they're the better teams.

Side note... I haven't done as much data crunching as you have on this, but I wonder if the big gap between 12 and 13 seeds is that the 12-seed is generally the last entry point for a power-5 team and 13 is where you start seeing low-major conference winners. If there is bigger gap that exists between 12 and 13 seed performances as compared to gaps between other 1-seed deviations, that would be one potential theory as to why.

 

[Dryfly88]

Not to split hairs, but I think history suggests that being a better team increases your odds of getting to the FF. I think the selection committee gets a heck of a lot more right than they do wrong, so it makes perfect sense that better seeds advance further historically... because they're the better teams.

Side note... I haven't done as much data crunching as you have on this, but I wonder if the big gap between 12 and 13 seeds is that the 12-seed is generally the last entry point for a power-5 team and 13 is where you start seeing low-major conference winners. If there is bigger gap that exists between 12 and 13 seed performances as compared to gaps between other 1-seed deviations, that would be one potential theory as to why.

Actually 11 seed is usually the last entry point for Power 5 schools. #12 and #13 usually come from mid-major conference winners and runner-ups.