Iowa primaries

[qazplm]

So new polling is out on both sides:

On the Dem side, Hillary leads by about 20 pts. So, thus far, not all that interesting.
On the Rep side, it's a whole lot of interesting:

http://www.documentcloud.org/docume...ublican-caucus-goers-august.html#document/p2]

Trump 22
Carson 14
Walker 9
Cruz 8
Fiorina 7
Huckabee 7
Bush 5
Paul 5
Rubio 5
Christie 3

What do I find interesting? Trump obviously, but thus far most of us are assuming he'll implode by then, but if he doesn't...

I find Bush all the way down below Cruz and Fiorina and Huckabee to be interesting. Rubio too. If you aren't in the top 5 in Iowa, that's a bit of a problem for your campaign.

I wonder if Carson will be the benefit more than others of a Trump collapse. Those voters aren't rushing to Bush, and Carson might pick them up. I see no way Carson has a shot in a GE, so I'm all for that result.

At any rate, it's early, things can change, got it, but it's interesting to speculate

 

[Stol91]

I share your surprise at Rubio and Bush being that far down. I also agree that Carson isn't electable in a GE vs. anyone but Sanders. Personally, as a Republican, I like a Kasich / Rubio ticket as it seems to me to be the best play at the 'math' game of the electoral votes. Make a play for Ohio and Florida and I think the traditionally red states will still be red if Hillary is the Dem candidate.

Trump assures the Republicans of a loss. Bush, while I like his record, likely wouldn't win against Hillary as he is just too plain. I'm not sold on Walker at all and really don't get how he was polling highly to begin with. I DO like Rubio and think he is quick on his feet and well spoken in the debate plus he brings in a blue collar voice to the Republican party and MAY draw more Hispanic voters to the party.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Cruz and I'm surprised he is still polling as good as he is. Same for Huckabee.

 

[lbodel]

So new polling is out on both sides:

On the Dem side, Hillary leads by about 20 pts. So, thus far, not all that interesting.
On the Rep side, it's a whole lot of interesting:

http://www.documentcloud.org/docume...ublican-caucus-goers-august.html#document/p2]

Trump 22
Carson 14
Walker 9
Cruz 8
Fiorina 7
Huckabee 7
Bush 5
Paul 5
Rubio 5
Christie 3

What do I find interesting? Trump obviously, but thus far most of us are assuming he'll implode by then, but if he doesn't...

I find Bush all the way down below Cruz and Fiorina and Huckabee to be interesting. Rubio too. If you aren't in the top 5 in Iowa, that's a bit of a problem for your campaign.

I wonder if Carson will be the benefit more than others of a Trump collapse. Those voters aren't rushing to Bush, and Carson might pick them up. I see no way Carson has a shot in a GE, so I'm all for that result.

At any rate, it's early, things can change, got it, but it's interesting to speculate

As I'm sure you know, momentum can mean a lot in primaries. The first four primaries are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Rick Santorum won the 2012 Iowa caucuses. However, Romney did BARELY lose. But the fact that Santorum won shows that it's not really terribly important.

Romney won New Hampshire with 39% - Ron Paul finished 2nd with 23%. NH was obviously friendly for Romney, but again, Ron Paul was the clear #2.

In the third primary, Newt Gingrich won South Carolina.

In the fifth, Romney won Nevada.

Romney really had an advantage in 2 of the first 5 primaries.

One problem for a Rubio/Bush is that in 2012, Florida was the 4th primary. In this election cycle, they are 19th (on the same day as 5 other states).

 

[Purdue97]

So new polling is out on both sides:

On the Dem side, Hillary leads by about 20 pts. So, thus far, not all that interesting.
On the Rep side, it's a whole lot of interesting:

http://www.documentcloud.org/docume...ublican-caucus-goers-august.html#document/p2]

Trump 22
Carson 14
Walker 9
Cruz 8
Fiorina 7
Huckabee 7
Bush 5
Paul 5
Rubio 5
Christie 3

What do I find interesting? Trump obviously, but thus far most of us are assuming he'll implode by then, but if he doesn't...

I find Bush all the way down below Cruz and Fiorina and Huckabee to be interesting. Rubio too. If you aren't in the top 5 in Iowa, that's a bit of a problem for your campaign.

I wonder if Carson will be the benefit more than others of a Trump collapse. Those voters aren't rushing to Bush, and Carson might pick them up. I see no way Carson has a shot in a GE, so I'm all for that result.

At any rate, it's early, things can change, got it, but it's interesting to speculate

The one thing thing that I would say or add to that is that there seems to be a real thinking out there that people want somebody outside of politics as usual in DC. I think it applies to both parties. I can say it has grown on me.

Rep

I used to think a Kasich/Rubio or Bush/Rubio would be the best option for R in the GE, I do not see them doing much right now.

Republicans Trump is in the lead, with Carson, and now Fiorina making a real move. All new comers.

I will say I agree that Clinton seems to have a built in demograhic advantage.

Like it or not, Clinton's dropping in polls is slowing but I have seen two polls where she is now 49% in IA and Bernie is now 30%. Her drop is slowing but it has not plateaued as of yet. All this despite her campaign moving up add funding/campaigning dollars through November up to summer.

She is now going to Cap Hill in I think it it is in October for a full day of questioning on Benghazi. And many people think it is Republicans that are dreaming up her email/server issues but keep in mind it is an IG, the Intelligence Community, a Federal Judge appointed by her husband, and the FBI that have issues with it as well.

I think there is a good chance in there for the implosion. Either something is found or she handles the situation in poor form. I also think the more this drags out it could turn more people to the 'outsider' choice on the Dem side.