Kansas and Colorado are both pretty good schools and AAU members, so they would fit the profile. I think Kansas is a fall back option, they will be there if we ever want them, because sparse state and weak following for their sports teams.
If we were going to make this the Big Twenty, who would be the 4 other additions?
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Neither works they won’t bring enough revenue in on their own, they would actually reduce the payouts.
It’s not the market it’s the fan base. Ucla and usc have a huge fan base because they are in a large geographic area. Vandy is in a hot area but no one cares about commodore football. The markets are pretty irrelevant with streaming as fewer people will be “forced” to pay for BTN in their cable package with cord cutting. There are 50M subscribers to BTN and 4M viewers is a very high viewership for a game. Who cares if they pick up 2M subscriptions with Vanderbilt if only 50,000 watch the game.
The added number of games available to sell means we can command higher fees from the broadcasters. Also the bigger we get, the more of the market we control, the more influence we can command. Co, and UK don't add a lot, but a 24 team nationwide conference commands a lot moreinfluense than a 16 team midwest conference with two la schools.
Does uK and CO increase the pot $150M per year? The answer is no. The broadcasters are smart, not all viewers are the same. We only get something like $0.59/month per subscription so we really need lots of TVs turned on to move the needle not just subscriptions. FS1 needs to sell premium commercial slots.
Actually, UCLA doesn't have THAT big of a fan base. Their basketball attendance has been about half of Purdue's and their football attendance at least 10,000 less.
Big10 plus ND
Ohio State — 5.22M
Michigan — 4.74M
Penn State — 3.87M
Michigan State — 2.89M
Notre Dame — 2.84M
Wisconsin — 2.41M
Nebraska — 2.29M
Iowa — 1.64M
Purdue — 1.63M
Minnesota — 1.28M
Indiana — 1.24M
UCLA — 1.18M
Illinois — 1.13M
Southern Cal — 1.11M
Maryland — 971K
Northwestern — 716K
Rutgers — 488K
All schools
Ohio State — 5.22M
Michigan — 4.74M
Alabama — 4.64M
Penn State — 3.87M
Georgia — 3.61M
Oklahoma — 3.46M
Auburn — 3.22M
Michigan State — 2.89M
Notre Dame — 2.84M
Oregon — 2.57M
Wisconsin — 2.41M
Nebraska — 2.29M
Texas — 2.26M
Florida — 2.21M
Arkansas — 2.03M
LSU — 1.90M
Texas A&M — 1.86M
Mississippi — 1.81M
Clemson — 1.74M
Iowa — 1.64M
Purdue — 1.63M
Oklahoma State — 1.58M
Tennessee — 1.51M
Minnesota — 1.28M
Florida State — 1.27M
Indiana — 1.24M
Iowa State — 1.219M
Cincinnati — 1.216M
UCLA — 1.18M
Baylor — 1.16M
Illinois — 1.13M
Southern Cal — 1.11M
Kentucky — 1.08M
Navy — 1.039M
Miami — 1.038M
North Carolina — 1.032M
Utah — 994K
Washington — 985K
Maryland — 971K
West Virginia — 948K
TCU — 907K
BYU — 893K
Mississippi State — 858K
Army — 804K
Texas Tech — 798K
Stanford — 778K
Arizona State — 739K
Northwestern — 716K
Boise State — 657K
Kansas State — 636K
Louisville — 616K
Virginia — 611K
South Carolina — 575K
Pittsburgh — 550K
Kansas — 540K
Wake Forest — 526K
NC State — 525K
Rutgers — 488K
Washington State — 483K
Missouri — 462K
Georgia Tech — 459K
Virginia Tech — 447K
UCF — 407K
Colorado — 366K
Tulsa — 358K
Tulane — 356K
Arizona — 337K
Louisiana — 334K
Oregon State — 321K
South Florida — 303K
East Carolina — 301K
Air Force — 255K
Appalachian State — 241K
Houston — 232K
Coastal Carolina — 223K
California — 222K
Syracuse — 219K
San Diego State — 198K
Memphis — 193K
Western Michigan — 171K
SMU — 164K
UAB — 163K
Northern Illinois — 163K
Boston College — 156K
Hawaii — 139K
Ohio — 130K
Eastern Michigan — 122K
Buffalo — 119K
Kent State — 117K
Temple — 112.7K
Ball State — 112.6K
Western Kentucky — 97K
Utah State — 91K
Akron — 90K
Marshall — 85K
Nevada — 78K
Duke — 64K
UTEP — 63K
Colorado State — 59K
San Jose State — 59K
UTSA — 51.9K
Georgia State — 51.7K
ULM — 50K
Fresno State — 45K
Wyoming — 38K
Vanderbilt — 37K
UNLV — 34K
South Alabama — 26K
New Mexico — 25K
Troy — 24K
USC and UCLA neither one are bring a lot of eyeballs with them, but they are considered huge gets..... And if you want to be really greed based about it, offer tiers of payments to schools based on the money they add to the pot.....I still think a bigger set of programming brings in more, a rising tide raises all boats kind of thing.
Stunning detail about Pac-12 dollar values emerges in realignment discussions
A former Fox Sports executive assessed the media-rights values of Oregon and Stanford. You probably will not guess the differential between the two schools.
trojanswire.usatoday.com
Here's another reason to go to 20 with more western teams. Scheduling. 16 teams with two in Cali makes the scheduling and travel nightmarish. Instead add Oregon, Washington, and two others and make a third division, FAR West. That means a lot less cross country trips for all the schools. Do we really want to play at Maryland Sunday in basketball and UCLA on the following Wednesday? These kids would be living in airports...... Take the slight hit in income to reap the benefits of lower expenses, considerations for the student athletes, and a higher chance of maintaining continuity.
What are these numbers specifically, I assume some kind of attendance roll up? And where did you pull them from?
off a post on NDNation for 2019 viewership. numbers of viewers average per game that year.
Where are you getting these numbers? Did you forget california has very strict covid rules so you have to go back to 2019 to get real data.
Also ucla and usc were a package deal and with all the viewers in California they will most certainly be better than $ neutral. This will be exacerbated as cal and Stanford slip into oblivion.
Pac has low numbers as their reach is smaller than others. Not as much tv. Part of it is I believe they play late.
Here's 2015-2019 viewership numbers, again from NDNation:
Ohio State (5.19M)
Alabama (5.09M)
Michigan (4.18M)
Notre Dame (3.61M)
LSU (3.22M)
Auburn (3.12M)
Georgia (2.91M)
Oklahoma (2.90M)
Clemson (2.67M)
Penn State (2.55M)
Florida (2.46M)
Wisconsin (2.27M)
Texas (2.269M)
Florida State (2.23M)
Michigan State (2.20M)
Southern Cal (1.98M)
Texas A&M (1.851M)
Tennessee (1.849M)
Oklahoma State (1.64M)
Mississippi (1.61M)
Iowa (1.57M)
Nebraska (1.51M)
Miami (1.503M)
TCU (1.495M)
Stanford (1.43M)
Oregon (1.34M)
Arkansas (1.33M)
Washington (1.32M)
Mississippi State (1.31M)
West Virginia (1.27M)
Virginia Tech (1.26M)
UCLA (1.25M)
Louisville (1.22M)
Indiana (1.17M)
Baylor (1.12M)
South Carolina (1.07M)
Navy (1.01M)
Texas Tech (921K)
Washington State (909K)
Northwestern (867K)
Utah (856K)
Army (825K)
Minnesota (803K)
Pittsburgh (781K)
North Carolina (749K)
Iowa State (747K)
California (730K)
BYU (714K)
NC State (703K)
Arizona State (695K)
Syracuse (694K)
Houston (689K)
Kansas State (682K)
Maryland (681K)
Purdue (620K)
Georgia Tech (615K)
Missouri (611K)
Colorado (610K)
Virginia (592K)
UCF (566K)
Memphis (564K)
Arizona (561K)
Kentucky (484K)
Boise State (476K)
Vanderbilt (438K)
Cincinnati (430K)
Duke (410K)
USF (407K)
Boston College (403K)
Illinois (401K)
Wake Forest (398K)
Temple (354K)
Kansas (346K)
Oregon State (295K)
Rutgers (266K)
Tulsa (265K)
SMU (232K)
Colorado State (130K)
Fresno State (127K)
Wyoming (126K)
Air Force (121K)
New Mexico (97K)
Hawaii (94K)
East Carolina (82K)
Nevada (80K)
San Diego State (63K)
UNLV (55K)
Tulane (42K)
San Jose State (30K)
UCLA and USC are still not drawing large numbers of eyeballs, so its got to be about the market as much as the viewership.
Ohio State (5.19M)
Alabama (5.09M)
Michigan (4.18M)
Notre Dame (3.61M)
LSU (3.22M)
Auburn (3.12M)
Georgia (2.91M)
Oklahoma (2.90M)
Clemson (2.67M)
Penn State (2.55M)
Florida (2.46M)
Wisconsin (2.27M)
Texas (2.269M)
Florida State (2.23M)
Michigan State (2.20M)
Southern Cal (1.98M)
Texas A&M (1.851M)
Tennessee (1.849M)
Oklahoma State (1.64M)
Mississippi (1.61M)
Iowa (1.57M)
Nebraska (1.51M)
Miami (1.503M)
TCU (1.495M)
Stanford (1.43M)
Oregon (1.34M)
Arkansas (1.33M)
Washington (1.32M)
Mississippi State (1.31M)
West Virginia (1.27M)
Virginia Tech (1.26M)
UCLA (1.25M)
Louisville (1.22M)
Indiana (1.17M)
Baylor (1.12M)
South Carolina (1.07M)
Navy (1.01M)
Texas Tech (921K)
Washington State (909K)
Northwestern (867K)
Utah (856K)
Army (825K)
Minnesota (803K)
Pittsburgh (781K)
North Carolina (749K)
Iowa State (747K)
California (730K)
BYU (714K)
NC State (703K)
Arizona State (695K)
Syracuse (694K)
Houston (689K)
Kansas State (682K)
Maryland (681K)
Purdue (620K)
Georgia Tech (615K)
Missouri (611K)
Colorado (610K)
Virginia (592K)
UCF (566K)
Memphis (564K)
Arizona (561K)
Kentucky (484K)
Boise State (476K)
Vanderbilt (438K)
Cincinnati (430K)
Duke (410K)
USF (407K)
Boston College (403K)
Illinois (401K)
Wake Forest (398K)
Temple (354K)
Kansas (346K)
Oregon State (295K)
Rutgers (266K)
Tulsa (265K)
SMU (232K)
Colorado State (130K)
Fresno State (127K)
Wyoming (126K)
Air Force (121K)
New Mexico (97K)
Hawaii (94K)
East Carolina (82K)
Nevada (80K)
San Diego State (63K)
UNLV (55K)
Tulane (42K)
San Jose State (30K)
UCLA and USC are still not drawing large numbers of eyeballs, so its got to be about the market as much as the viewership.
If you had 20 schools, there would be (4) five team divisions. So you would only need 3 more schools for a west division.
PAC does not get great viewership partly based on their not as good Pac-12 channel which is not broadcast nationally, partly because some of their “prime” games are very late at night, and plus USC just went through a rough period in on-field performance.
If you look at more recent data it is more telling as a LOT has changed recently with streaming. Plus you look at national games it’s pretty impressive. Like BYU-USC in week 13 last year outperformed all but 4 big ten games with 1.46M viewers despite being at 10:30 pm against byu but was on ESPN and not handicapped by the pac network. The week 12 matchup of usc and ucla on fox had 1.84m viewers and was only beat by 2 big ten games. Week 8 ucla-Oregon was 2nd highest ratings behind TN-AL with 3.85M viewers. UCLA-WA in week 7 was beat by only one B10 game. Week 6 usc-Utah was beat by 2 big ten games.
That would be one way, I was thinking keep the two current divisions, add a Far West and then the playoffs be the three division winners and a wildcard. That leaves adding ACC teams in a couple years when the SEC raids them hard and going to 4 divisions of 6.
Interesting difference between these numbers and the earlier numbers. it certainly appears the Purdue following has improved significantly, which I assume was related to Darrell Hazell and the ADs negligence that effectively ended football for 4 yrs
(And people believe Brohm is overpaid…🤦♂. Without Brohm, we are looking like Vanderbilt)
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If SEC takes clemson, Miami, and FSU who do you want other than ND? Maybe UNC. I’ve seen Pitt mentioned which is debatable if they will be a net increase in value. I think at that point you are negotiating lower payouts but that is such a slippery slope as you give teams like OSU opportunity yo ask for the world.
Minnesota State Screaming Eagles and Coach Haydon Fox would be a good addition. That would bring in a natural rivalry for the Gophers.
Add to that, I dont like the expansion, but money is the motivator.
Add to that, I dont like the expansion, but money is the motivator.
Pitt is a dumber choice than OkSt..... they add not one new TV market, and its been far too long since Dan Marino was in college........ Rice has a better chance than Pitt...... pretty much EVERY AAU member has a better chance than Pitt..... not even worth a chuckle thinking they are worth BT membership.
I'd go Oregon, Washington and Colorado out west then UNC and Duke to the East.
That works out nicely if you go to four, five team divisions as you have the PAC schools out West. The four recent East additions plus Penn State, then just draw a line between Indiana and Illinois and you have the other two.
And I'm all for giving ND the middle finger.
That works out nicely if you go to four, five team divisions as you have the PAC schools out West. The four recent East additions plus Penn State, then just draw a line between Indiana and Illinois and you have the other two.
And I'm all for giving ND the middle finger.
Purdue's football program was at the bottom of the barrel in 2015. That's why their viewership was below UCLA. You can see now with the investments and improvements, it's handily better than UCLA. That's why the talk of Purdue getting asked to leave the B1G is nonsense, right @Wolegib ?
Academics are worth a LOT of money to this conference, dude. Unless the next team is an Alabama, they will absolutely be an AAU member. And like I said, that’s not some pride thing … it’s worth as much cash as football and TV.
Agreed. Obviously, in isolation, they’re the “best get” on the board … but their administrators and donors seem so delusional about this that they don’t even seem to see the writing on the wall. If that’s the case, let’s leave them behind.
Why does anyone respond to him?
Is this a good thread to bring up bringing in the University of Toronto? If its all about viewership, that would be a bold move. Have no idea the red tape that might be involved let alone how long it would take to field competitive teams.
There have been a lot of rumors this week of who the Big Ten might go after now. Many articles have said that the Big Ten is trying to finalize their TV deal before they would add any others. They would renegotiate for any new additional schools after that.
What I found to be interesting was not Oregon and Washington being discussed, because they have been discussed for a while now. California and Stanford were brought up. The biggest surprising names thought, and it would be a fight with the SEC, were both Florida State and Miami being strongly considered by the Big Ten. That would lock up the rest of the state of Florida, except for the University of Florida obviously. Florida State and Miami kind of surprised me a little, since we don't have a southern presence, but the U would give us the big Miami market. I know I wouldn't mind traveling to Miami to see Purdue play.
People might say how is that possible with the ACC alliance contract. It said that the alliance can be broken if 8 of the members vote to dissolve it. Basically, if the Big Ten and SEC work together, they could split up teams and get their new members to vote against the contract.
What I found to be interesting was not Oregon and Washington being discussed, because they have been discussed for a while now. California and Stanford were brought up. The biggest surprising names thought, and it would be a fight with the SEC, were both Florida State and Miami being strongly considered by the Big Ten. That would lock up the rest of the state of Florida, except for the University of Florida obviously. Florida State and Miami kind of surprised me a little, since we don't have a southern presence, but the U would give us the big Miami market. I know I wouldn't mind traveling to Miami to see Purdue play.
People might say how is that possible with the ACC alliance contract. It said that the alliance can be broken if 8 of the members vote to dissolve it. Basically, if the Big Ten and SEC work together, they could split up teams and get their new members to vote against the contract.
FSU would never get considered, this is like the rumors of OkSt..... its a non-starter because of the AAU membership and shared research money that is FAR in excess of the athletic money. FSU is a third tier academic school in no way a peer to any of the Big Ten schools. The only AAU member that will ever be considered is ND....
You're mistaken about FSU's academics. 15 - 20 yrs ago, FSU was pretty mediocre academically, but they've improved dramatically and now they're ranked #55 by USNWR, which puts them ahead of 8 B1G schools, but they're not AAU. To put it in perspective, Purdue is ranked #49.
#55 - FSU
#59 - MD
#63 - PSU
#63 - RU
#68 - IU
#68 - MN
#83 - MSU
#83 - IA
#136 - NE
FSU has a National following and a rabid fan base. They would be a good addition.
I'm assuming we'll take 2 more from the Pac 12. I'd love to see Stanford (#6) and one of (UW (#59), OR (#99) or CO (#99). They're all AAU.
Assuming we take 2 from the East, I'd be happy with ND (#19) and one of (UNC (#28), FSU (#55) or Miami (#55). UNC is the only AAU school in this group.
Adding Toronto would be like adding UConn football and needing to use passports to visit their school. Too many headaches and I doubt the network would be thrilled with the prospect.
Look at the timeframe. We had 2 years of DH2 as the HC during that span. We sucked and attendance/viewership suffered.
Like I said if its about viewership.
I seriously doubt passports would be an obstacle, especially in 2022.
I admittedly know very little about Toronto athletics. Just know its a major market. There are some very good bball players in Canada, and one would think if Toronto did somehow join, say the B1G, they would have an inside track of attracting major bball talent seemingly out of the gate. I would assume they'd have great hockey immediately.
Certainly not saying its going to happen anytime soon, just interesting to talk about in the dog days of summer.
One of the biggest lures of adding FSU to the BT is the recruiting ground.
I have to believe the SEC would NOT let the BT get a foothold in their most valuable state, and I would assume FSU would prefer the SEC.
I’ve said long ago I think the 4 schools would be Oregon, Washington, ND, and Stanford. I’m upping that bet heavily.
if the ACC dissolves, then I think the BT would make a push for UNC/UVA, but I don’t think they’re currently actively pursuing them
Its been reported that is takes a 2/3 majority to vote the ACC out of existence, so 10 schools voting for it. Let's assume Wake is not going to vote itself out of a conference into limbo, nor will any other school. The only schools voting to dissolve the ACC will be schools improving themselves. IF the B10 takes 4 (UVA, UNC, GaTech, ND, or possibly Duke) do you really see 6 teams that the SEC would take just to destroy the ACC? I am not seeing enough meat on the bones there, and it would dillute the take for the BT as those schools other than ND DO NOT bring more to the table than their share would be. Maybe as half share schools, which would still be higher than the ACC share but more in line with what they would add to the conference.
I’ve seen it reported that only 8 votes are needed for dissolution, and ND gets a vote.
That makes it a lot easier, especially because I believe the B12 might be interested in scraps such as NC state, Pitt, VT.
SEC - Clemson, Miami, FSU
B10 - UNC, UVA
there’s your 8 votes
Again, IF it only takes 8 votes, and for NCst, Pitt, and VaTech they are voting to take a step down in money and adding a lot of travel, so they would be absolute idiots to vote the ACC out. Pretty much, it has to be all schools going to the BT or SEC for them to have a legitimate reason to vote the ACC out of existence, and I just don't see that happening, especially since if the BT and SEC were to help make it happen, the schools left behind have an easy lawsuit for collusion that could run into the billions of dollars against us.
So make a simple prediction:
do you think the ACC will survive without any defections by 2036, which is when the GOR ends?
I resoundingly don’t think so. Some crack will form, not sure how, but the discrepancy in money is just too big for schools like Clemson and FSU to wait it out. They’ll be left behind.
When one school gets the balls to leave, the dam breaks as every school will seek solid ground. At that point the B12 will look like a stable option.
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