If Purdue runs table?

[M51]

The group of teams that we're talking about, the mid 2-seed through the 5 seeds, are as follows on today's update of the Matrix. Obviously not all the submissions are updated themselves. Starting with overall #7:

2 Michigan St
2 Wisconsin
3 Iowa State
3 St. John's
3 Texas Tech
3 Kentucky
4 Purdue
4 Texas A&M
4 Michigan
4 Arizona
5 Missouri
5 Clemson
5 Maryland
5 Marquette

If MSU wins both the reg season title and BTT, they deserve a 1 seed. St. John’s is most likely a 2 at worst, barring a couple late season losses. Clemson may be a 3 seed. Kentucky is a 4 seed at best and most likely a 5 seed. Maryland wins against NU and does well in the BTT, could be a 3 seed. Wisky either 2 or 3. Think Purdue needs to get to championship game for a 3 seed. Lose to Ill and early BTT loss prob puts them at a 5 seed. Same with Michigan. Lose a couple more drops them to a 5 seed at best.

1 seeds - Auburn, Duke, Houston, MSU
High 2 seeds - Florida, St. John’s

Other 2 seeds - Tenn, Alabama, Wisky, Clemson. Wisky and Clemson would need very good conf tournament finish.

 

[ChoiceBeef]

Lot of shake ups last night and plenty of games to be played.

Honestly, probably Auburn, Duke and Houston are locks on the 1 line. Last spot up for grabs.

As much as we talk up the BTT, don’t think it helps or hurts us. It is needed for those bubble teams more than us.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Lot of shake ups last night and plenty of games to be played.

Honestly, probably Auburn, Duke and Houston are locks on the 1 line. Last spot up for grabs.

As much as we talk up the BTT, don’t think it helps or hurts us. It is needed for those bubble teams more than us.

I’m gonna go Florida is last 1 seed…winners at bama and at Auburn. They look to be a f4 team…but they also could lose to an 8/9. They have the guard play and front court. Condon is a matchup nightmare and very good.

 

[northside100]

Lot of shake ups last night and plenty of games to be played.

Honestly, probably Auburn, Duke and Houston are locks on the 1 line. Last spot up for grabs.

As much as we talk up the BTT, don’t think it helps or hurts us. It is needed for those bubble teams more than us.

Disagree, I think quarterfinal and semifinal wins can make a material difference.

Not sure that a loss makes much of a difference unless Purdue doesn't get the double bye and loses their first BTT game.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I’m gonna go Florida is last 1 seed…winners at bama and at Auburn. They look to be a f4 team…but they also could lose to an 8/9. They have the guard play and front court. Condon is a matchup nightmare and very good.

Gators also blasted the Volunteers and Aggies at home - think they have the inside track right now, then Tennessee and Alabama. You have to think a 2nd SEC team is a 1-seed.

Sparty's definitely been the best Big Ten conference team and playing well down the stretch, but it doesn't have the real cache wins to get to the #1 line, IMO. They are a solid #2 to me unless they totally crater like lose out, which I cannot foresee. I guess I'm going against several among the board thinking there is not another 2-seed from the Big Ten (plus ocho), but we shall see.

 

[proudopete]

H

Gators also blasted the Volunteers and Aggies at home - think they have the inside track right now, then Tennessee and Alabama. You have to think a 2nd SEC team is a 1-seed.

Sparty's definitely been the best Big ten conference team and playing well down the stretch, but it doesn't have the real cache wins to get to the #1 line, IMO. They are a solid #2 to me unless they totally crater like lose out, which I cannot foresee. I guess I'm going against several among the board thinking there is not another 2-seed from the Big Ten (plus ocho), but we shall see.

Yeah, 3 seed is our ceiling

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Gators also blasted the Volunteers and Aggies at home - think they have the inside track right now, then Tennessee and Alabama. You have to think a 2nd SEC team is a 1-seed.

Sparty's definitely been the best Big ten conference team and playing well down the stretch, but it doesn't have the real cache wins to get to the #1 line, IMO. They are a solid #2 to me unless they totally crater like lose out, which I cannot foresee. I guess I'm going against several among the board thinking there is not another 2-seed from the Big Ten (plus ocho), but we shall see.

I….dont trust sparty for the tourney (famous last words, I know 😂)

 

[Heads up BOILER]

Maryland win keeps alive Purdue's chances to finish as high as second IF the Boilers can win Friday night.

There's still a possibility for a 4-way tie @ 14-6 (Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, and Wisconsin) - seeds would be:

Maryland (2)
Purdue (3)
Michigan (4)
Wisconsin (5)

How do finish with a better seed then whisky

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

How do finish with a better seed then whisky

Multiple team tie.

In a four-way tie, the first tie-breaker would be round-robin record among the tied teams -

Maryland beat Wisconsin and Michigan, lost to Purdue (2-1)

Purdue split with Michigan, beat Maryland, and lost to Wisconsin (2-2)

Michigan split Purdue, beat Wisconsin, and lost to Maryland (2-2)

Wisconsin beat Purdue, lost to Maryland, and lost to Michigan (1-2)

____________________________

Then to break the tie between Michigan and Purdue for 3/4 seeds, head-to-head was a split, so from what I understand, they would revert to winning percentage against the teams in the standings (tied teams are considered a group).....Purdue would win that over Michigan because it would eventually end at Illinois (Michigan 0-1, Purdue 1-0), and this is based on the assumption that Purdue wins tomorrow evening.

 

[asby]

I don't understand why the first tie-breaker isn't head to head....

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I don't understand why the first tie-breaker isn't head to head....

It is - what's the context/scenario to which you are referring? In the above 4-way tie example, Maryland has the best head-to-head winning percentage of all the tied teams (.667), so they are #3, and Wisconsin has the worst winning percentage (.333), so they are #5. This is because they are separated from the group at the top and bottom.

Michigan and Purdue remain tied, and under B.1.b. below, they restart the tie-break process under A.

____________________________________

Here are the tie-breaker rules:

Big Ten tiebreakers​

Tiebreaker Procedures for Tournament Seeding

1. Teams shall be seeded No. 1 through No. 15 in the tournament bracket based on the final regular-season Conference standings.

2. A team's seed shall correspond to its regular-season finish (i.e., the champion shall be the No. 1 seed, the runner-up the No. 2 seed, etc.).

3. Teams that finished Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the regular season shall receive a "bye" through the first two rounds.

4. In case of a tie for any place finish in the regular-season standings, the following tie-breaking procedure shall be followed in order to seed teams in the tournament bracket:

A. Ties Involving Two Teams:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular-season standings), continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tiebreaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.

4. Highest NET ranking of the teams. NET rankings that are released on the last Friday of the regular season will be utilized.


B. Ties Involving more than Two Teams:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

• a. When comparing records against the tied teams, teams will be seeded based on winning percentage head-to-head among the group, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0). If all teams among the group are separated based on winning percentage, all ties are broken. Ties shall be considered separated when a team(s) emerges from the top, middle or bottom of the group and is awarded a seed(s).
• b. Once a seed is awarded, all remaining tied teams shall restart the tiebreak process at the first criteria (e.g. if there is a four-team tie, one team is 4-0, another is 3-1 and the last two are 2-2 among the group, the two teams that are 2-2 move to step a (head-to-head) and the teams that are 4-0 and 3-1 assume the next two available highest seeds).

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tiebreaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents.

4. Highest NET ranking of the teams. NET rankings that are released on the last Friday of the regular season will be utilized.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Yeah the goofy thing, and it seems backasswards, is that if there's a multi-team tiebreaker, you do the round robin first. If 2 teams are still tied using that tiebreaker, you go back to the normal 2-team tiebreaker rules, which first go to H2H. But in this case we split with Michigan, so then have to go to record against the standings going down.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Yeah the goofy thing, and it seems backasswards, is that if there's a multi-team tiebreaker, you do the round robin first. If 2 teams are still tied using that tiebreaker, you go back to the normal 2-team tiebreaker rules, which first go to H2H. But in this case we split with Michigan, so then have to go to record against the standings going down.

The other thing is it's winning percentage, and doesn't matter if it's uneven games. 1-0 is the same as 2-0, and 0-1 is the same as 0-2. 1-0 beats 2-1 and even 3-1, etc. Wisconsin gets the short end on a lot of these multi-team ties having lost to both Maryland and Michigan in single plays. Their double-play games were Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.

Between the East/West travel and the even more unbalanced schedule, it's just a different animal now.

 

[Booty Maximus]

Humrichous another year?! Wow.

Wouldn’t Riley also be gone to the draft after this year?

Yes Riley is likely gone as long as he stays as a projected first rounder.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Right now, the 1's are Auburn, Duke and Houston and 1 of Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. I don't think we can catch those 6.

I'd put MSU next and it's going to be hard to catch them. We'd really need them to lose at least 2 of the next 3 and maybe 3 straight to catch them.

But beyond those 7 teams, I'm not sure anyone is significantly in front of us.

• St Johns has a gaudy record but has played the same number of Q1 games as we've won and has played 15 Q3/Q4 games. It would certainly help if Marquette could beat them this weekend and they lose early in the BET.
• Iowa State losing last night certainly narrowed the gap between us
• I'd put Wisconsin and Texas Tech slightly ahead of us right now but not materially.
• Kentucky, Texas A&M and Michigan have comparable resumes

Now, all that said, I put Purdue's chances of beating Illinois and winning the BTT at about 10-15% so....

IMO...Tennessee losing last night hurt them a lot. I think that moved them to a 3 or even a 4 spot.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

IMO...Tennessee losing last night hurt them a lot. I think that moved them to a 3 or even a 4 spot.

Uhh...no. They lost on the road in a tight game to a quality team that is going to be around a 5-7 seed in the tournament. That won't drop them more than one spot in the S-curve much less 2-3 seedlines.

 

[boilerzz]

IMO...Tennessee losing last night hurt them a lot. I think that moved them to a 3 or even a 4 spot.

Not even close.

 

[TMA62]

If they beat Illinois and win BTT can they get a 2 seed? I don’t think it happens but it is a possibility.

I would prefer Purdue being a 3 or 4 seed.

As a #1 or #2 seed, there is a lot of pressure. You are supposed to go deep in the tournament and get to the Final Four. It is a bullseye one's back.

As a #3 or #4 seed, that pressure is not there. I think that this Purdue team will play much better as the "Hunter" instead of the "Hunted".

I think they can make a lot of noise in the NCAA as a #3 or a #4.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I would prefer Purdue being a 3 or 4 seed.

As a #1 or #2 seed, there is a lot of pressure. You are supposed to go deep in the tournament and get to the Final Four. It is a bullseye one's back.

As a #3 or #4 seed, that pressure is not there. I think that this Purdue team will play much better as the "Hunter" instead of the "Hunted".

I think they can make a lot of noise in the NCAA as a #3 or a #4.

Should be anywhere between a 3-5…and more likely the 4 or 5

 

[TMA62]

Should be anywhere between a 3-5…and more likely the 4 or 5

That 4 game stumble last month did not help them, as far as seeding goes.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

I would prefer Purdue being a 3 or 4 seed.

As a #1 or #2 seed, there is a lot of pressure. You are supposed to go deep in the tournament and get to the Final Four. It is a bullseye one's back.

As a #3 or #4 seed, that pressure is not there. I think that this Purdue team will play much better as the "Hunter" instead of the "Hunted".

I think they can make a lot of noise in the NCAA as a #3 or a #4.

They can make noise whether they're a 2, 3, 4 or 5. I don't think there's more pressure on this team if they're higher seeded. They were a #1 last year.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

They can make noise whether they're a 2, 3, 4 or 5. I don't think there's more pressure on this team if they're higher seeded. They were a #1 last year.

and vanquished arguably the toughest #2-seed in the bracket.....in a gut-check type battle.

ALL about match-ups, especially this year for Purdue.....and maybe getting fortunate with a HUGE upset somewhere else in the bracket.

One good thing (if you want to look at it on a positive light), they've seen about everything - but some match-ups we know will be big-time trouble unless Purdue shooting goes supernova.

Looking forward to it playing out either way - hopefully, it's a great postseason......but if not.....onward and upward, so they say.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

and vanquished arguably the toughest #2-seed in the bracket.....in a gut-check type battle.

ALL about match-ups, especially this year for Purdue.....and maybe getting fortunate with a HUGE upset somewhere else in the bracket.

One good thing (if you want to look at it on a positive light), they've seen about everything - but some match-ups we know will be big-time trouble unless Purdue shooting goes supernova.

Looking forward to it playing out either way - hopefully, it's a great postseason......but if not.....onward and upward, so they say.

Man we are due for an unexpected run…would be great if it happens this year….

 

[asby]

It is - what's the context/scenario to which you are referring? In the above 4-way tie example, Maryland has the best head-to-head winning percentage of all the tied teams (.667), so they are #3, and Wisconsin has the worst winning percentage (.333), so they are #5. This is because they are separated from the group at the top and bottom.

Michigan and Purdue remain tied, and under B.1.b. below, they restart the tie-break process under A.

____________________________________

Here are the tie-breaker rules:

Big Ten tiebreakers​

Tiebreaker Procedures for Tournament Seeding

1. Teams shall be seeded No. 1 through No. 15 in the tournament bracket based on the final regular-season Conference standings.

2. A team's seed shall correspond to its regular-season finish (i.e., the champion shall be the No. 1 seed, the runner-up the No. 2 seed, etc.).

3. Teams that finished Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the regular season shall receive a "bye" through the first two rounds.

4. In case of a tie for any place finish in the regular-season standings, the following tie-breaking procedure shall be followed in order to seed teams in the tournament bracket:

A. Ties Involving Two Teams:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular-season standings), continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tiebreaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.

4. Highest NET ranking of the teams. NET rankings that are released on the last Friday of the regular season will be utilized.


B. Ties Involving more than Two Teams:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

• a. When comparing records against the tied teams, teams will be seeded based on winning percentage head-to-head among the group, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0). If all teams among the group are separated based on winning percentage, all ties are broken. Ties shall be considered separated when a team(s) emerges from the top, middle or bottom of the group and is awarded a seed(s).
• b. Once a seed is awarded, all remaining tied teams shall restart the tiebreak process at the first criteria (e.g. if there is a four-team tie, one team is 4-0, another is 3-1 and the last two are 2-2 among the group, the two teams that are 2-2 move to step a (head-to-head) and the teams that are 4-0 and 3-1 assume the next two available highest seeds).

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tiebreaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents.

4. Highest NET ranking of the teams. NET rankings that are released on the last Friday of the regular season will be utilized.

My thinking is that if we are tied with Maryland in the standings and are 1-0 against them...Shouldn't we be ahead of them in the seeding....But if it's overall win percentage we are Bing penalized for playing a tougher non conference schedule

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

My thinking is that if we are tied with Maryland in the standings and are 1-0 against them...Shouldn't we be ahead of them in the seeding....But if it's overall win percentage we are Bing penalized for playing a tougher non conference schedule

They would be in a TWO-way tie with only Maryland, but it doesn't work that way in a 4-way tie. Wisconsin could say the same thing of Purdue then - Badgers are 1-0 against the Boilers. Also, It's just the winning percentage in the games amongst the tied teams.

The scenario is Purdue tied with Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Maryland - and non-conference games don't count - also, the seeding is just on Big ten conference standings.

Confusing I know and somewhat counter-intuitive at times. Maryland is in better position because they beat (in single plays) two of the teams they could possibly be tied with, so it offsets the one loss to Purdue in some of the scenarios. Purdue's loss to Michigan was really costly in some of the tie-breaker scenarios.

 

[pubill]

That 4 game stumble last month did not help them, as far as seeding goes.

No kidding!

 

[Wolegib]

I believe we don’t need this thread anymore

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I believe we don’t need this thread anymore

😂 😂