How many points will Purdue need to win at Illinois?
- Thread starter Gman544
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I think Illinois likely wins this game, if they do that’s fine, Purdue isn’t losing at home to Wisky.
Yeah I think Illinois wins this one as they’ve had this circled for quite some time and it will be their “Super Bowl”. I am not as concerned with winning (while it d be great) as how we play in a hostile environment like that and how we respond to runs and if we can shoot the ball well. Very interested in matchups with TSJ playing this time around.
It all comes down to skill and talent. Feeling doesn't matter. Please don't tell me that they want to win more than Purdue does or they are more hungry, that's just excuse.
The correct and only answer is 1 more than ILL.
But I kid, cam on, I'm working here.
Purdue will need high 80s / low 90s and bear then on rebounding and intensity to silence their crowd.
But I kid, cam on, I'm working here.
Purdue will need high 80s / low 90s and bear then on rebounding and intensity to silence their crowd.
Sorry, but that's bullshit. Skill and talent notwithstanding, feeling is exactly what differentiates winners and losers, especially in late-season high stakes matchups like this. Even more so in the tourney. Think that FDU had more skill and talent than Purdue last year? Nope.
It will probably need be in the low 80's for Purdue to win. A 90-100 point shootout will likely favor ILL. Purdue will need to slow the pace and turn this into more of a half court battle for the best chance IMO. Thank goodness Purdue will have the only PG controlling pace in this game.
This will be a classic possession war game. Purdue has potential to hammer them on offensive glass and slowing pace should hopefully limit some of the silly TOs that plague this team in losses.
ILL will exploit their offensive mismatches and you live with that. Purdue getting multiple cracks on offense and taking care of the ball is what will hopefully swing the game in their favor for a road win.
Also, big game Fletch is back, so him going for 25+ like he did against Arizona and Tenn would be nice.
This will be a classic possession war game. Purdue has potential to hammer them on offensive glass and slowing pace should hopefully limit some of the silly TOs that plague this team in losses.
ILL will exploit their offensive mismatches and you live with that. Purdue getting multiple cracks on offense and taking care of the ball is what will hopefully swing the game in their favor for a road win.
Also, big game Fletch is back, so him going for 25+ like he did against Arizona and Tenn would be nice.
It will boil down to our outside shooting. If we hit 10 or more threes, we win. 6-9 it's a close game. 5 or less probably not a win.
Should be in the 80s to 90s regardless.
Should be in the 80s to 90s regardless.
No idea, but I don't think Purdue wants to run with Illinois. Purdue will always push it and probe, but the advantage Purdue has is Zach and his effect is magnified with less up and down...especially if effective early and drawing some fouls on their bigs. Purdue will want to steal points when they can, but Illinois with Shannon is very good in transition. Not sure what Purdue does on D . Luke is a shooter and Shannon and Domask are capable shooters, but think they favor the rim (Shannon) and mid range to rim Domask. Hawkins can stretch you as well. If Purdue does not have turnovers or long rebounds, Purdue can set the D and pack the lane a bit to try to take away Shannon and Domask games but with enough pressure on them that the arc is contested by the defender try to make them become more of a passer than scorer...and then hope the others don't fill it up. This is where Luke, Hawkins and Guirrer (sp?) need to have an off night. Course if Purdue feeds Zach and puts their two 5 men in foul trouble that helps a lot. If I recall correctly I don't think they fed Zach a lot and why Hawkins was playing at the end.
This one is really tough, but I think Matt may put a bit more zone than usual into his man D...or a lot of weakside help with his man with maybe a foot in the lane or close to it. If Zach is good at 60% I'm not sure they make 40% 3 balls and hopefully some of their 3 ball bounce long which they sometimes do when Shannon shoots them...
Depends on how often Shannon can get free throws by running directly into the defense. Illinois fans like to complain about Edey getting calls but the Shannon bailouts are far worse.
Right? Dude shot 35 over two games and averages 8 a game as well. I have no issues with it really…it’s a good strategy to put pressure on the defense and refs to make a play/make a call.
But then complaining about Edeys FTs is quite humorous when TSJ is getting to the line quite a lot as well.
Hence maybe why you are prepared to get in the lane as we saw against Jaden and make Shannon beat you from the perimeter or give the ball up and hope you can recover with some help. He wants that left hand too...
Good question. I think Jones guarded Domask (old teammates) in the first game. I'll go with Smith on TSJ. I know that sounds like a major mismatch, but with TSJ you really need quickness more than height to guard him (both would be better, though). So, I'd choose Smith over Feltch. The key is to not let TSJ get a head of steam going. We'll have to live with his 3's (which he can make). Definitely mismatches to exploit on both ends of the floor. Probably will see a lot of Heide and Morton too.
We will probably throw a variety of looks and switches on TSJ. I expect the first few minutes to be a chess match as we figure out what the defense is doing on both sides of the ball.
Illinois Starting 5
TSJ - team effort with probably Smith taking the lead?
Domask - most likely Jones
Guerrier - most likely Loyer
Rodgers - Edey &/or TKR
Hawkins - Edey &/or TKR
I’m going to go with 78. I believe Purdue will try to control the tempo and slow down the pace rather than getting into a run and gun matchup.
To win, Purdue must make Illinois conform to their style rather than trying to beat Illinois at their style.
To win, Purdue must make Illinois conform to their style rather than trying to beat Illinois at their style.
Turnovers are the key in my mind. Our efficiency on offense is negated when we turn the ball over. Keep the TO's in single digits and i like our chances in this one.
Tough matchups due to guard and small forward size. I think Smith gives up six inches, Loyer 4 inches and Smith 4 inches in this scanario. All their guys between six foot six and six ten. Certainly Edey helps even it out on the inside, but he has to be careful not fouling especially away where the whistle will not be friendly.
This is one of the reasons I want catchings to play the three instead of using a 3 guard offense. While we may win 20+ games every year with that 3 guard offense, There will always be 1-3 games where using that offense and smaller players places us at an extreme disadvantage.
1) eliminate transition baskets
2) make Shannon beat you behind the arc rather than driving the ball (need a packed lane if...)
3) Little more contesting on the 3 ball for Domask than Shannon. Domask is slow enough to recover on and generally prefers getting inside the lane
4)Illinois players are mostly drivers first, shooters 2nd as preferential desires (Luke being an exception)
5)Illinois players do not do a lot of off ball screening and so players should not get lost as easily and able to focus on the ball a bit more to help...AND hopefully recover. I just really think this team you cover the shooters with a player and get off the others enough that you can cover your man with a pass...maybe a step farther off if Shannon has the ball, because you want to entice him to pass the ball some, but you can't let others beat you either.
6)Illinois wants to exploit mismatches and this is where a bit more weak side sag or zoning of the weakside help (same thing, but with a slight shift of rules leaning more to area, but still able to recover to man responsible sorta like a matchup zone.
Like you I think Matt wants more of a half court game, but will steal points when able. You would like Illinois to think about D rather than O. The team that controls the pace for most of the game probably wins(with all else somewhat equal)..Purdue as usual runs when it can, but war in the paint when it can't...especially this game Can Trey dominate inside and have Ill match up or does Purdue have to match up with Ill? If Trey doesn't dominate we see more Mason and Cam. Course Matt might just want to control Shannon and Domask a bit and eliminate Guriere and maybe Hawkins and keep Rodgers out of the lane.
I personally don't see a good match on D with Illinois individually at all spots and unsure Purdue wants an up and down game either. You hope Purdue dictates pace and tempo...even with Illinois having the potential to go brain dead they can also put a lot of points up quickly. This may be a game where we see more than usual area of the court positioning on D with the initial look showing maybe a match-up zone due to player position than Purdue's typical man and help side positioning. All the coaches have an idea, but the effectiveness of the players will dictate what the coaches pursue. Keep it close and the pressure will rise on Illinois as the game goes on...
I believe a key will be not defending their perimeter shots, but rather, finding a way to prevent their perimeter shooters from getting the ball and a chance to shoot.
How does Purdue do this ? A zone defense where we have 2 guards on the ball handler. And when he passes, our defenders move to whoever he passed it to. can we do this? I don’t know. I just know our man to man is not the best defense to implement.
How does Purdue do this ? A zone defense where we have 2 guards on the ball handler. And when he passes, our defenders move to whoever he passed it to. can we do this? I don’t know. I just know our man to man is not the best defense to implement.
didn't think Lance was particularly good on Domask the first game. However with Shannon on the court it takes a bit away from Domask. Not sure someone other than Cam, Lance and maybe Mason can defend Domask...maybe Trey when Domask gets deep, but Trey has to give ground until he can tighten up in the lane. Can see Lance on Shannon if not on Domask. Two great offenses, but one team better on D...when set and so turnovers, long bounces off shots all prevent setting the D for Purdue. Hopefully Purdue takes what is there and hits the shots and sets the D. This is not just two good teams going at it, but the contrast in styles and players make for a really interesting game.
I would rather see Jones guard Shannon. That's the key matchup in my opinion. Although there is a lot of familiarity between Jones and Domask, Marcus got the better of him in the first matchup. I really don't care to see a repeat of that.
When Gillis isn't guarding Guerrier, I would like to see him take a shot at Domask. Or perhaps we'll see a committee of Gillis, Heide, and Morton. But honestly, I don't think any of those guys will slow down Domask if he's having a great game. He had no problem successfully playing booty ball against a much taller Tyler Wahl last week.
If this game goes to 3 OTs, think we would be closer to 120 range.
Tyler is more finesse than physical. Ideally Trey has the height, and weight to maybe not let him get so deep, but could get exploited on the perimeter more than Mason or Cam. That said, Domask plays a bit slower and so Trey "might" be okay. I see Domask as a physical player much more than finesse, but he is very skillful...slow but skillful and physical. Lance has a bit of strength and weight to be a bit physical and quick with Shannon and he is my first thought. I can visualize Cam on Shannon as well, but then you either lose a bit of O or take a chance that the someone can take Guerrier (Fletch) or lose Fletch and bring in Mason or Ethan and now you have some players in different spots with Mason playing with Trey or Ethan and not having much perimeter scoring and only have Braden and Lance to handle the ball.. I think you need 3 scorers in the game on the perimeter. Purdue is better with skill than Illinois, but Illinois is more athletic. Don't want an athletic game. This is why I see a needing the packed lane on weakside and maybe a step or two away from the line of ball to who you are defending. D is time and distance. How far off can you be and recover to your man to defend?
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I've been running through the matchups too. I don't see the same thing as the game in Mackey where Edey basically played a zone and we didn't guard Rodgers outside the lane. He's playing better as of late, and Shannon is back. Shannon back means less Good-y, but he can still make shots off the bench.
The problem as I see it is who guards Gurrier and Hawkins, respectively, since they BOTH do a lot of inside and outside. Maybe we see a lot of switching between Edey and TKR/Gillis, but that's probably not something they work on a lot. I certainly don't want to see Edey chasing either one of them.
I also expect Jones to be on Shannon, which leaves Loyer/Morton/Heide on Domask. Last game it was primarily Jones on Domask.
Really tough one for me since I haven't watched Illinois as much as I would like. If you can keep Shannon out of transition by taking good shots and hopefully no long bounces off misses and make him go in the half court it probably helps Purdue. I think Domask is better in the half court...strong, but not as quick. Purdue has seen him and expect maybe Cam or Mason on him "IF" Zach has Hawkins. If Zach has Rodgers, then we can expect Trey to be on Hawkins. I would like Trey on Domask when in the lane so that Zach can still board and not have to help. Putting Trey on Domask gives up a bit of perimeter D perhaps. Their players are more athletic and slicers than Purdue and 3 of their perimeter players are taller as well.
All this said, they have to defend Purdue and they have their issues in defending Purdue as well. Purdue may be a bit looser and Illinois having a bit more pressure. Again, Illinois has a LOT of individual scoring whereas Purdue averages around 18 assists and Illinois around 13 and without a real distributor or PG the players generally make the plays on their own. So, I believe that Purdue can cheat a bit with the help D on the weakside a little more than usual. If Purdue doesn't turn it over and is on behind the arc, then fewer long rebounds for them to have runouts and now can't swarm Zach. Poise, patience play "most the game in the half" and win that and Purdue should be okay. Illinois always seems to have a close, tough game with Purdue anymore...
I just can't see putting Loyer on Domask unless he has some serious help when the booty-ball starts. I still think they will try Jones on Domask and Smith on Shannon. Doesn't sound right, but maybe Smith's quickness can bother Shannon. In any case, either of them will try to match up with Loyer if we are switching on screens. It's a conundrum, but they have the same issues when we are on offense.
Yeah I thought about that too. It's a tough look either way.
Which team is Ditka playing for? The other team will need 143,000 points...in the first half.
