Historically Good Offense

[BoilerDaddy]

Heading into the post season, not only does Purdue have the #1 Bart Torvik Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the nation at 127.9, but only two schools have finished the season higher since 2008, which is as far back as Torvik’s data goes. This is not a prediction, but the last team to finish the season with a higher efficiency (Villanova in 2018) won the national championship. The other team to finish higher (Wisconsin in 2015) was national runner up. Of course, Purdue’s season isn’t over and it is even possible that they could be passed by UConn, who is also historically good, but we have to appreciate that what we’ve witnessed this year is not typical. Purdue’s offense is special this season.

The defense isn’t bad, either.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Heading into the post season, not only does Purdue have the #1 Bart Torvik Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the nation at 127.9, but only two schools have finished the season higher since 2008, which is as far back as Torvik’s data goes. This is not a prediction, but the last team to finish the season with a higher efficiency (Villanova in 2018) won the national championship. The other team to finish higher (Wisconsin in 2015) was national runner up. Of course, Purdue’s season isn’t over and it is even possible that they could be passed by UConn, who is also historically good, but we have to appreciate that what we’ve witnessed this year is not typical. Purdue’s offense is special this season.

The defense isn’t bad, either.

Not offensive efficiency.....but I wonder how the top 10-20 offenses compare this year vs say a decade ago. It seems more and more teams are putting up big points. It's been a long while since we have seen 100+ pt games in the B10 and other conferences and it seems like there has been several this year. Tons of teams hitting 80+.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

There's a certain efficiency stat out there that all Final Four teams in the last X number of years have had both a Top - Y offensive efficiency along with a Top - Z defensive efficiency. The offense # is higher than the defense. Maybe someone can quote it I'm not great with the KenPom stuff.

 

[Boiler Addict]

I’ve created threads and spoken a lot about KenPom in the past.

I did a look at the last 20 NCAA champions, I think there were two outliers but otherwise the NCAA champions were KenPom top 10 offense and top 20 defense with a ~+30 differential.

After today's game, Purdue is overall #3 KenPom with:
#1 offense (126.4)
#21 defense (96.7)
+29.76

Much stronger numbers than last season, especially on defense. Purdue is flirting with being in the range, but I am worried about their defense’s ability to get stops. They more rely on teams missing shots.

Before seeing the bracket, and assuming everyone’s ankles are OK, I would expect off KenPom alone, Purdue should get to the elite8 and from there, its matchup based.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I’ve created threads and spoken a lot about KenPom in the past.

I did a look at the last 20 NCAA champions, I think there were two outliers but otherwise the NCAA champions were KenPom top 10 offense and top 20 defense with a ~+30 differential.

After today's game, Purdue is overall #3 KenPom with:
#1 offense (126.4)
#21 defense (96.7)
+29.76

Much stronger numbers than last season, especially on defense. Purdue is flirting with being in the range, but I am worried about their defense’s ability to get stops. They more rely on teams missing shots.

Before seeing the bracket, and assuming everyone’s ankles are OK, I would expect off KenPom alone, Purdue should get to the elite8 and from there, its matchup based.

I think the two outliers were Villanova ('18) and Connecticut ('14), although Villanova was on the fringe defensively, like where Purdue is. Connecticut in 2014 was way out in both metrics 53 offense and 39 defense - just got on a serious run as a #7-seed, led primarily by Shabazz Zapier and Ryan Boatright. They went to overtime in their first round game, too. So, it can happen, but don't count on it.

Purdue has the numbers, has the pieces.....it's about making the key play on both ends of the floor......we shall see......have a feeling there will be a make/break moment somewhere down the line.....making the necessary arrangements for extra oxygen.

One more thing.....the three other teams in play with the numbers right now look to be (to no surprise) Houston, Connecticut, and Arizona. Auburn and Creighton are close it appears.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

I’ve created threads and spoken a lot about KenPom in the past.

I did a look at the last 20 NCAA champions, I think there were two outliers but otherwise the NCAA champions were KenPom top 10 offense and top 20 defense with a ~+30 differential.

After today's game, Purdue is overall #3 KenPom with:
#1 offense (126.4)
#21 defense (96.7)
+29.76

Much stronger numbers than last season, especially on defense. Purdue is flirting with being in the range, but I am worried about their defense’s ability to get stops. They more rely on teams missing shots.

Before seeing the bracket, and assuming everyone’s ankles are OK, I would expect off KenPom alone, Purdue should get to the elite8 and from there, its matchup based.

I get that KenPom is the standard, but my understanding is that it doesn’t remove garbage time from its calculations which makes me trust Torvik a little more. The ratings are similar, but Purdue tends to do a little better in Torvik.

 

[tjreese]

I’ve created threads and spoken a lot about KenPom in the past.

I did a look at the last 20 NCAA champions, I think there were two outliers but otherwise the NCAA champions were KenPom top 10 offense and top 20 defense with a ~+30 differential.

After today's game, Purdue is overall #3 KenPom with:
#1 offense (126.4)
#21 defense (96.7)
+29.76

Much stronger numbers than last season, especially on defense. Purdue is flirting with being in the range, but I am worried about their defense’s ability to get stops. They more rely on teams missing shots.

Before seeing the bracket, and assuming everyone’s ankles are OK, I would expect off KenPom alone, Purdue should get to the elite8 and from there, its matchup based.

I hope Purdue and the teams it plays all fall inside the average data that generated the numbers rather than extremes in different directions for the teams in play. Always worry about that unicorn game

 

[Flot]

I’ve created threads and spoken a lot about KenPom in the past.

I did a look at the last 20 NCAA champions, I think there were two outliers but otherwise the NCAA champions were KenPom top 10 offense and top 20 defense with a ~+30 differential.

After today's game, Purdue is overall #3 KenPom with:
#1 offense (126.4)
#21 defense (96.7)
+29.76

Much stronger numbers than last season, especially on defense. Purdue is flirting with being in the range, but I am worried about their defense’s ability to get stops. They more rely on teams missing shots.

Before seeing the bracket, and assuming everyone’s ankles are OK, I would expect off KenPom alone, Purdue should get to the elite8 and from there, its matchup based.

Add this to the Loyer effect and I feel a lot better. Glad his slump is over.

 

[Dryfly88]

I also worry much more about our defense than offense. I harp this all the time, but the key is keeping TO's down. When you are one of the most efficient offenses in the country, the key is just don't give the ball to the other team without taking a shot. Do this and the efficient offense gets to take full advantage. Not only do you score more points (obviously), but you also get a chance to set your defense which will make that end of the floor more efficient also. We all know the challenges we have stopping some type players, there isn't much we are going to do about that, so do what we can on offense to help out.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I also worry much more about our defense than offense. I harp this all the time, but the key is keeping TO's down. When you are one of the most efficient offenses in the country, the key is just don't give the ball to the other team without taking a shot. Do this and the efficient offense gets to take full advantage. Not only do you score more points (obviously), but you also get a chance to set your defense which will make that end of the floor more efficient also. We all know the challenges we have stopping some type players, there isn't much we are going to do about that, so do what we can on offense to help out.

including letting one of the better offensive rebounders get you another possession.....

to dovetail about setting your defense - also limits transition and the killer points off turnovers.....that's been one of the constants in Purdue's three losses.....20+. Wisconsin had 17 yesterday......well, really 15....haha.

I realize the incredibly poor shooting gets a lot of runway (and rightfully so) for last year's abrupt and disappointing finish, but Painter also knows and has stated that the turnovers were perhaps the biggest reason.....same thing the year before. They do get magnified when you also throw in some defensive breakdowns as well.

 

[Dryfly88]

including letting one of the better offensive rebounders get you another possession.....

to dovetail about setting your defense - also limits transition and the killer points off turnovers.....that's been one of the constants in Purdue's three losses.....20+. Wisconsin had 17 yesterday......well, really 15....haha.

I realize the incredibly poor shooting gets a lot of runway (and rightfully so) for last year's abrupt and disappointing finish, but Painter also knows and has stated that the turnovers were perhaps the biggest reason.....same thing the year before. They do get magnified when you also throw in some defensive breakdowns as well.

Also we know the dance games are going to be close. You're just not going to blow out good teams. So every possession needs to be valued. Keep the give -aways down, and we increase our chance of the offense carrying us through.