Maryland primed to win the Big Ten
Then again, Michigan State did reach the Final Four, and Wisconsin took Duke to the 40th minute of the national championship game. Moreover, the Big Ten won its annual bragging rights series against the ACC, marking the sixth consecutive year the league has earned either a tie or an outright victory in that event.
Add it all up, and the Big Ten is strong but not dominant. That figures to be a fairly good description of 2015-16, as well, as recent arrivals Maryland and Rutgers could finish the season first and last in the standings, respectively. Here is my early forecast of how next season will play out:
1. Maryland Terrapins
Give Mark Turgeon credit. It was just 12 months ago that Maryland was hemorrhaging transfers right and left and observers were questioning whether he was really the right man for the job in College Park. Now he presides over the consensus preseason Big Ten favorite. Melo Trimbleand Jake Layman return, and Turgeon adds Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, 6-foot-9 Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and 6-foot-10 Diamond Stone, a one-and-done-track freshman. The Terrapins won't win as many close games as they did last season, but with this lineup they should replace a few of those nail-biters with a fair number of comfortable wins.
2. Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo lost Travis Trice and Branden Dawson and adds West Virginia transfer Eron Harris, 6-foot-9 top-25 freshman Deyonta Davis and top-100 shooting guard Matt McQuaid. That's a net loss on paper, butDenzel Valentine has a legitimate shot at Big Ten Player of the Year, Harris should be outstanding, and maturation could work wonders for onetime contributors such as Tum Tum Nairn and Bryn Forbes. One concern for Michigan State is at point guard, where Trice supplied potent offense while minimizing turnovers. Expect giveaways to increase in East Lansing, but the Spartans' defense and rebounding could keep them in the hunt at the top of the league regardless -- particularly if the 3s fall for Valentine and Harris.
3. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana last season had a marvelous offense and an exceptionally weak defense. Everyone returns from that team (namely Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., Troy Williams and Robert Johnson), suggesting that the Hoosiers will again score points in abundance. But can they defend? IU's problem in 2014-15 was a debilitating lack of size in the paint, so Tom Crean ventured into upstate New York and signed 6-foot-10 McDonald's All AmericanThomas Bryant (thanks, in part, to the "chaos" surrounding Syracuse). If the freshman can alter shots -- and stay in the game -- he can provide a huge lift for a team that won't need much in the way of defense to outscore opponents.
4. Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers won't shoot as well as they did in 2014-15 -- ask Creighton about what losing a national player of the year does to your effective field goal percentage -- but the good news for Bo Ryan is twofold.Nigel Hayes is still around, and, if there's anything we can safely assume in advance about a Wisconsin team, it's that these guys won't commit turnovers.
5. Michigan Wolverines
After playing much of 2014-15 without Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr., Michigan gets both players back for the coming season. Then again, the Wolverines were healthy and whole for the first third of Big Ten play last season, and, over the course of those 375 possessions, John Beilein's men scored less than a point per trip. Michigan will rebound nicely from last season's 16-16 showing, but don't pencil in the Wolverines for anotherTrey Burke- or Nik Stauskas-variety Elite Eight appearance just yet.
6. Purdue Boilermakers
You can make a case that Purdue's defense didn't get the respect it deserved last season, and with A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas both returning for Matt Painter, the Boilermakers project to be strong on that side of the ball once again. Point guard is still something of an open question in West Lafeyette, but if Purdue's size continues to force misses and Kendall Stephenschips in with an occasional 3, the Boilers will reach a second consecutive NCAA tournament. Needless to say, this picture will be even rosier if reports are correctand Painter lands Caleb Swanigan, a highly touted freshman-to-be who just decommitted from Michigan State.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
Not counting his first season in Columbus (when the Buckeyes were ineligible for postseason play), Thad Matta has taken OSU to nine NCAA tournaments in 10 seasons at the helm. Will that percentage take a hit in 2015-16? D'Angelo Russell went pro, and Shannon Scott, Amir Williams,Sam Thompson and Anthony Lee ran out of eligibility. That leaves the highly capable likes of Jae'Sean Tate, Marc Loving and Keita Bates-Diop still in residence, but to reach the field of 68, Matta will need contributions from freshmen such as JaQuan Lyle, Austin Grandstaff, Daniel Giddens and A.J. Harris and/or Virginia Tech transfer Trevor Thompson.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes thrived on offense last season as an interior-oriented team, but Aaron White was the best inside shooter on the roster and he's gone, as are Gabriel Olaseni and Josh Oglesby. White also excelled at drawing fouls, so veterans such as Jarrod Uthoff, Mike Gesell andAdam Woodbury will have to improve their shooting accuracy, point guard play and offensive rebounding, respectively, to equal last season's scoring output.
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois' offense has been mediocre or worse for nearly a decade now, and the challenge for John Groce in his fourth season at the helm is to bring that streak to an end sooner rather than later. He'll try to do so with a veteran rotation featuring Tracy Abrams (back from the knee injury that sidelined him all of last season), Malcolm Hill, Kendrick Nunn, Leron Black and Charlotte transfer Mike Thorne. Groce has also added two top-100 freshmen in the form of Jalen Coleman-Lands and D.J. Williams. The first priority will be improving the Illini's drop-dead awful 41 percent accuracy inside the arc in Big Ten play.
10. Northwestern Wildcats
Year 3 of the Chris Collins era will likely be the best season Northwestern has recorded in a very long while. The late-season switch to a zone defense in 2014-15 seemed to energize the Wildcats, and the return of Alex Olah, Bryant McIntosh, Tre Demps and Vic Law bodes well for the coming campaign. The arrival of 6-foot-7 power forward Aaron Falzon will give the program its second top-100 recruit in as many years (following the debut of Law last season). Any semblance of defense whatsoever will mark an improvement for a team that ranked No. 14 in the league on that side of the ball last season.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Richard Pitino lost three starters (Andre Hollins, Maurice Walkerand Deandre Mathieu) and signed a seven-player recruiting class culled entirely from outside the top 100. On paper, that reads like a rebuild or at least a reset, but keep in mind that the Golden Gophers can look better on defense immediately if they get some rebounds and if Big Ten opponents play along by no longer shooting 39 percent on 3s.
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers
There are sweeping changes afoot in Lincoln. Terran Petteway and -- more surprisingly -- Walter Pitchford elected to leave school early for a shot at playing professionally. Throw in the departures of David Rivers (who came to the end of his eligibility) and Tarin Smith (transfer), and it's clear that Nebraska will look much different in 2015-16. Kansas transfer Andrew White III will be eligible, and Tim Miles says he's intrigued by the possibility of playing a smaller team next season. Look for top-100 freshmen Ed Morrow Jr. and Glynn Watson to get early opportunities alongside veterans Shavon Shields, Benny Parker and Tai Webster.
13. Penn State Nittany Lions
The best transfers sometimes garner the least attention, and D.J. Newbill is proof. In the three seasons the onetime Southern Miss starter played in Happy Valley, he emerged as the lone voice of effectiveness in an otherwise crowded chorus of ineptitude on offense. Now Newbill's gone, and the potential for a below-average offense to become downright poor is very real. Pat Chambers will try to meet that danger with emerging junior Geno Thorpeand top-100 freshman Josh Reaves.
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
In Big Ten play last season, Rutgers recorded just 0.90 points per possession, easily the worst figure in the league, and that was with senior Myles Mack playing at the level of a pretty good major-conference point guard. With Mack having exhausted his eligibility, the Scarlet Knights have work to do. For his part, Eddie Jordan says he has two impact arrivals on hand in the form of junior college transfer Deshawn Freeman and top-100 freshman point guard Corey Sanders.
- John Gasaway, ESPN Insider
Then again, Michigan State did reach the Final Four, and Wisconsin took Duke to the 40th minute of the national championship game. Moreover, the Big Ten won its annual bragging rights series against the ACC, marking the sixth consecutive year the league has earned either a tie or an outright victory in that event.
Add it all up, and the Big Ten is strong but not dominant. That figures to be a fairly good description of 2015-16, as well, as recent arrivals Maryland and Rutgers could finish the season first and last in the standings, respectively. Here is my early forecast of how next season will play out:
1. Maryland Terrapins
Give Mark Turgeon credit. It was just 12 months ago that Maryland was hemorrhaging transfers right and left and observers were questioning whether he was really the right man for the job in College Park. Now he presides over the consensus preseason Big Ten favorite. Melo Trimbleand Jake Layman return, and Turgeon adds Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, 6-foot-9 Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and 6-foot-10 Diamond Stone, a one-and-done-track freshman. The Terrapins won't win as many close games as they did last season, but with this lineup they should replace a few of those nail-biters with a fair number of comfortable wins.
2. Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo lost Travis Trice and Branden Dawson and adds West Virginia transfer Eron Harris, 6-foot-9 top-25 freshman Deyonta Davis and top-100 shooting guard Matt McQuaid. That's a net loss on paper, butDenzel Valentine has a legitimate shot at Big Ten Player of the Year, Harris should be outstanding, and maturation could work wonders for onetime contributors such as Tum Tum Nairn and Bryn Forbes. One concern for Michigan State is at point guard, where Trice supplied potent offense while minimizing turnovers. Expect giveaways to increase in East Lansing, but the Spartans' defense and rebounding could keep them in the hunt at the top of the league regardless -- particularly if the 3s fall for Valentine and Harris.
3. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana last season had a marvelous offense and an exceptionally weak defense. Everyone returns from that team (namely Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., Troy Williams and Robert Johnson), suggesting that the Hoosiers will again score points in abundance. But can they defend? IU's problem in 2014-15 was a debilitating lack of size in the paint, so Tom Crean ventured into upstate New York and signed 6-foot-10 McDonald's All AmericanThomas Bryant (thanks, in part, to the "chaos" surrounding Syracuse). If the freshman can alter shots -- and stay in the game -- he can provide a huge lift for a team that won't need much in the way of defense to outscore opponents.
4. Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers won't shoot as well as they did in 2014-15 -- ask Creighton about what losing a national player of the year does to your effective field goal percentage -- but the good news for Bo Ryan is twofold.Nigel Hayes is still around, and, if there's anything we can safely assume in advance about a Wisconsin team, it's that these guys won't commit turnovers.
5. Michigan Wolverines
After playing much of 2014-15 without Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr., Michigan gets both players back for the coming season. Then again, the Wolverines were healthy and whole for the first third of Big Ten play last season, and, over the course of those 375 possessions, John Beilein's men scored less than a point per trip. Michigan will rebound nicely from last season's 16-16 showing, but don't pencil in the Wolverines for anotherTrey Burke- or Nik Stauskas-variety Elite Eight appearance just yet.
6. Purdue Boilermakers
You can make a case that Purdue's defense didn't get the respect it deserved last season, and with A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas both returning for Matt Painter, the Boilermakers project to be strong on that side of the ball once again. Point guard is still something of an open question in West Lafeyette, but if Purdue's size continues to force misses and Kendall Stephenschips in with an occasional 3, the Boilers will reach a second consecutive NCAA tournament. Needless to say, this picture will be even rosier if reports are correctand Painter lands Caleb Swanigan, a highly touted freshman-to-be who just decommitted from Michigan State.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
Not counting his first season in Columbus (when the Buckeyes were ineligible for postseason play), Thad Matta has taken OSU to nine NCAA tournaments in 10 seasons at the helm. Will that percentage take a hit in 2015-16? D'Angelo Russell went pro, and Shannon Scott, Amir Williams,Sam Thompson and Anthony Lee ran out of eligibility. That leaves the highly capable likes of Jae'Sean Tate, Marc Loving and Keita Bates-Diop still in residence, but to reach the field of 68, Matta will need contributions from freshmen such as JaQuan Lyle, Austin Grandstaff, Daniel Giddens and A.J. Harris and/or Virginia Tech transfer Trevor Thompson.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes thrived on offense last season as an interior-oriented team, but Aaron White was the best inside shooter on the roster and he's gone, as are Gabriel Olaseni and Josh Oglesby. White also excelled at drawing fouls, so veterans such as Jarrod Uthoff, Mike Gesell andAdam Woodbury will have to improve their shooting accuracy, point guard play and offensive rebounding, respectively, to equal last season's scoring output.
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois' offense has been mediocre or worse for nearly a decade now, and the challenge for John Groce in his fourth season at the helm is to bring that streak to an end sooner rather than later. He'll try to do so with a veteran rotation featuring Tracy Abrams (back from the knee injury that sidelined him all of last season), Malcolm Hill, Kendrick Nunn, Leron Black and Charlotte transfer Mike Thorne. Groce has also added two top-100 freshmen in the form of Jalen Coleman-Lands and D.J. Williams. The first priority will be improving the Illini's drop-dead awful 41 percent accuracy inside the arc in Big Ten play.
10. Northwestern Wildcats
Year 3 of the Chris Collins era will likely be the best season Northwestern has recorded in a very long while. The late-season switch to a zone defense in 2014-15 seemed to energize the Wildcats, and the return of Alex Olah, Bryant McIntosh, Tre Demps and Vic Law bodes well for the coming campaign. The arrival of 6-foot-7 power forward Aaron Falzon will give the program its second top-100 recruit in as many years (following the debut of Law last season). Any semblance of defense whatsoever will mark an improvement for a team that ranked No. 14 in the league on that side of the ball last season.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Richard Pitino lost three starters (Andre Hollins, Maurice Walkerand Deandre Mathieu) and signed a seven-player recruiting class culled entirely from outside the top 100. On paper, that reads like a rebuild or at least a reset, but keep in mind that the Golden Gophers can look better on defense immediately if they get some rebounds and if Big Ten opponents play along by no longer shooting 39 percent on 3s.
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers
There are sweeping changes afoot in Lincoln. Terran Petteway and -- more surprisingly -- Walter Pitchford elected to leave school early for a shot at playing professionally. Throw in the departures of David Rivers (who came to the end of his eligibility) and Tarin Smith (transfer), and it's clear that Nebraska will look much different in 2015-16. Kansas transfer Andrew White III will be eligible, and Tim Miles says he's intrigued by the possibility of playing a smaller team next season. Look for top-100 freshmen Ed Morrow Jr. and Glynn Watson to get early opportunities alongside veterans Shavon Shields, Benny Parker and Tai Webster.
13. Penn State Nittany Lions
The best transfers sometimes garner the least attention, and D.J. Newbill is proof. In the three seasons the onetime Southern Miss starter played in Happy Valley, he emerged as the lone voice of effectiveness in an otherwise crowded chorus of ineptitude on offense. Now Newbill's gone, and the potential for a below-average offense to become downright poor is very real. Pat Chambers will try to meet that danger with emerging junior Geno Thorpeand top-100 freshman Josh Reaves.
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
In Big Ten play last season, Rutgers recorded just 0.90 points per possession, easily the worst figure in the league, and that was with senior Myles Mack playing at the level of a pretty good major-conference point guard. With Mack having exhausted his eligibility, the Scarlet Knights have work to do. For his part, Eddie Jordan says he has two impact arrivals on hand in the form of junior college transfer Deshawn Freeman and top-100 freshman point guard Corey Sanders.
