Congrats to everyone who owns equities. It is going to be a rough couple of months.....
Brexit
- Thread starter buygreekbonds
- Start date
Congrats to everyone who owns equities. It is going to be a rough couple of months.....
Just betting/guessing,
Shorter term will lead to more individual/separation of Nations (will Texas want to leave the us?! Ha)
But much longer term will still lead to an inevitability of more globalization.
Shorter term will lead to more individual/separation of Nations (will Texas want to leave the us?! Ha)
But much longer term will still lead to an inevitability of more globalization.
Scapegoating the immigrants; scapegoating the bankers. Whatever.
Most of those PEOPLE who voted leave haven't got the first clue how badly their fear was manipulated into getting them to vote directly against their economic self interest.
The under-educated and under-skilled aren't going to have any greater demand for their services in an isolationist or, "independent" Britain. Further, the "European" system of beefits that provides them a social safety net will become less and less affordable as Britain's economy (and borders) shrink.
But hey, maybe there will be less scary immigrants in line next to them to collect thier smaller benefit checks in 2017.
Fear mongering...pot meet kettle. You're all going to be poor and starve if we leave! what utter and indefensible nonsense.
Yes, total nonsense. I mean:
1. having to re-negotiate trade deals at likely worse results
2. disruptions to imports and exports
3. Probable loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland
4. Markets affected negatively globally
5. Pound losing a ton of value
6. Less access to money for the social safety net
How could anyone defend the nonsense that those things could in any way be a negative to England?
most of those are very temporary re-balancing versus bleeding out money year over year with no benefit, watching their industries be destroyed, being forced into decisions they don't agree with, and most importantly, the free people losing their voice and thus their choice in decisions that directly effect their lives.
You are welcome to your opinion, but feel free to inject some logic in the back and forth.
Fear mongering would be an apt description of the neo-nationalist approach that was used to drum up support for leave votes.
My points were & are purely economic, and they aren't fear mongering. Nobody said "you're all going to be poor and starve" - that was your exaggeration in attempt to distract.
There is not a single coherent economic argument to support Leave. The only arguments were nationalistic and anti-immigrant. There might as well have been Red and White hats that said "Make Britain Great Again".
Will demand for unskilled labor go up in independent Britain? No
Will demand for under-educated labor go up in independent Britain? No
Will British global trade benefit from Brexit? No
Will British businesses (big and small) benefit from Brexit? No
Reuters Headlines as of 11am US Eastern:
"Sterling suffers historic fall on massive selloff"
"Risk assets routed as Britain votes to leave EU"
"World stocks tumble as Britain votes for EU exit"
So it would seem that the early facts seem to support my position, and I feel confident that the longer range reality will as well. But to refute the looming reality, you can keep throwing out LOUD NOISES and populism!
Fear mongering would be an apt description of the neo-nationalist approach that was used to drum up support for leave votes.
My points were & are purely economic, and they aren't fear mongering. Nobody said "you're all going to be poor and starve" - that was your exaggeration in attempt to distract.
There is not a single coherent economic argument to support Leave. The only arguments were nationalistic and anti-immigrant. There might as well have been Red and White hats that said "Make Britain Great Again".
Will demand for unskilled labor go up in independent Britain? No
Will demand for under-educated labor go up in independent Britain? No
Will British global trade benefit from Brexit? No
Will British businesses (big and small) benefit from Brexit? No
Reuters Headlines as of 11am US Eastern:
"Sterling suffers historic fall on massive selloff"
"Risk assets routed as Britain votes to leave EU"
"World stocks tumble as Britain votes for EU exit"
So it would seem that the early facts seem to support my position, and I feel confident that the longer range reality will as well. But to refute the looming reality, you can keep throwing out LOUD NOISES and populism!
If you couldn't find economic reasons for leaving then you didn't look, or more likely, you don't really want to know how much it costs the UK to be a part of the EU. You want to live on one side of the isle that's fine. Don't expect me to tow any party line. I see the reality for what it is, and these people had every right to be upset with the deal they were getting. That doesn't mean everything is going to come up roses, but at least they have a say in the matter again!
1. The EU's multicultural utopia is an unmitigated disaster and is creating a European Caliphate.
2. Sending money to the EU's loser countries in the south perpetuates their fiscal irresponsibility.
3. England will regain control of its immigration policies.
4. The economic impact of Brexit will be much less than forecast by the hysterical liberals.
5. England was the first to the door but there is a herd coming behind them. Even the French are now eyeing a referendum.
6. Britain regains her sovereignty.
Why is the Yen so heavily impacted by Brexit? Other currencies and gold are affected as well, but it seems to me that the Yen is getting a lot of talk.
lol
Scotland and NI leaving are "temporary?"
New, worse trade deals are "temporary?"
Less access to social safety net?
Import/Export issues?
The only thing temporary on my list is maybe the market reactions.
But hey, the people get their voice back...awesome, they can be 100% English operating at 75% of their former influence and output because they've lost Scotland and the benefits of being part of a larger economy.
Because despite the talk of "us not all being in it together" as TSB says, we actually are "all in this together" so when one peg of the world's finances takes a big hit, all of the other pegs follow.
You're half right, I believe in true equality. The EU's agenda for social engineering is anathema for democracy.
Multiculturalism aka diversity does not work. People will always self-segregate with their own kind. That's what happens when nations try it, that's what happens when colleges try it and that's what happens when industry tries it. Assigning quotas for various racial and ethnic groups as "goals" is the purist form of racism.
Certain people will do that, yep. Others don't give a shit about what "their kind" is.
I will say it yet again: No government, university or industry should be involved with social engineering. Admissions offices at universities should have no inkling regarding the race, ethnicity, gender, sexual preference, height, weight or religion of its applicants. Applicants should be assigned a number and evaluated solely by their credentials and accomplishments. And the evaluation should be done by a computer, not an avowed bigot like Sotomayer.
Short answer: flight to safety.
Risk-off assets are the yen, the dollar, and developed country bonds. Now one could easily make a coherent argument as to why NONE of these should be considered safe or not risky, but as it were, they are currently the places to where investors flock in times of distress and volatility.
Risk-on assets are equities (particularly emerging markets but really all equities apply), emerging market or weaker-country developed market (eg Portugal Greece et al) bonds, unprofitable high growth tech stocks, small company stocks, junk bonds, etc. If things normalize you'll see all of these regain their losses, and if things stay volatile, these will all suffer mightily.
Most likely it will be Britain and Wales. UK is the #5 economy in the world. Brexit is a big deal.
LePen in France is going to ask for a referendum and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands is calling for one. Denmark already has one foot out the door. There is going to be a ripple effect in the other EU nations because of Brexit.
The Democrats would be wise to pay attention to what is going on. Northern Europe is becoming sick and tired of being dictated to by Brussels bureaucrats. Many Americans likewise are sick and tired of ineffectual establishment politicians from both parties serving their own special interests and not the interests of the American people. They are tired of having false flags and divisive agendae shoved down their throats by the establishment.
The political elites in the UK and the press totally misread the will of the British people. None of them was predicting that Brexit would happen.
from an economic standpoint, what are more of the specific reasons the uk felt more burdened, doomed, etc compared to other eu members.
i see that in 2015, the uk ranked 3rd in eu budget contributions (2nd in eu population).
dating back to 2007, they were ranked 4th in contributions.
they also still had their own currency.
do people want more us state secession talk again also? i guess i haven't heard much yet.
because reading some above bullet points about negatives of: multiculturalism, sending money to loser countries - those sound quite similar to the u.s. what the us once claimed as a great strength (melting pot), and we also have states that rely financially from other states/federal level.
as mentioned, it seems to be quite a tradeoff of what could be lost and gained in a quest for 'independence.'
i see that in 2015, the uk ranked 3rd in eu budget contributions (2nd in eu population).
dating back to 2007, they were ranked 4th in contributions.
they also still had their own currency.
do people want more us state secession talk again also? i guess i haven't heard much yet.
because reading some above bullet points about negatives of: multiculturalism, sending money to loser countries - those sound quite similar to the u.s. what the us once claimed as a great strength (melting pot), and we also have states that rely financially from other states/federal level.
as mentioned, it seems to be quite a tradeoff of what could be lost and gained in a quest for 'independence.'
This is like a stupid peasants' revolt, conjuring up memories of Wat Tyler. On TV newscasts, you see a lot of flush faced Andy Capp types in pubs clinking pints of Bass, oblivious to the tragedy of how they've consigned themselves to the dunghill. They're not even aware that they'll have less quality dental care, something they desperately need but seldom address. I'm so happy that my ethnic brothers in Scotland will pounce on the option to bolt and join the EU. Scotland recently decided to remain with the Commonwealth, but now the United Kingdom has transitioned from a passably good looking chick into a ghastly toothless hag....Cheerio old bean!!!!
Wake up. How is it proper for the UK to put $1.00 into the EU coffers and get about $0.50 in return? 14 of 27 EU nations are net takers and are being propped up by the healthy countries like Germany and until yesterday/today the UK.
Please.
First, the economic consequences of EU membership (or not) go far beyond the government contributions and distributions from Brussels. Even the most naive nativist would have to recognize that.
Ironic how the far right claims to be all about the private sector and free enterprise, but when convenient - try to parse out only public sector money movement to make a straw man argument.
Furthermore, the theory behind your numbers comes straight from the agenda-driven Brit tabloids, and has been pretty widely discredited both inside and outside the UK.
But what do I and most of the world's economists know? We're asleep right?
The only problem with those numbers is that its closer to one dollar in return for every three going to the EU. Those numbers are not "widely discredited". If you have something that refutes this, post a link.
However the overwhelming reason the Brits voted for Brexit is immigration. They're being over-run by Eastern Europeans and they know the moslem migrants are next.
Isn't the u.s. somewhat similar in regards to state budgets?
Even in an improved economy, we have a dozen or more states in the red.
And maybe worse, is that some of the more populous states are offenders.
(The fifth largest has run a deficit for over a decade)
The difference is that countries in the EU have the option to leave. The states don't have that option.
London elected a Muslim as its mayor. Not everyone is as terrified of Muslims as you are.
25 percent of Brits ranked immigration as the number one issue for them...it's not currently in our top three. Britain is very, very white. We are much less so, particularly in swing states. The parallels are not nearly as close as you think. Different countries, different voters, different issues.
It was 52-48...there is no "will of the British people" there is a rough 50/50 split based on educational levels, age, and socioeconomic status. The number one predictor of leave or remain votes was educational level. The next predictor was age.
We don't have quite those splits in quite those degrees here.
is it red states or blue states who end up, overall, getting more in federal dollars than they give back? Because I don't think the answer is what you think it is.
Your numbers purposefully ignore the rebate, which changes the ratio considerably. In the end, it's about net economic impact of membership, not just the puts and takes of direct government fund transfer.
http://news.cbi.org.uk/business-iss...mpact-of-eu-membership-on-the-uk-economy-pdf/
CBI, or Confederation of British Industry - a pretty right of center source.
But It won't matter to you and most leavers. Leave campaign was driven by fear, racism, and xenophobia. This should feel familiar to followers of the US presidential primaries: think red hats. Economics are only useful to nationalists when they can bend a statistic out of context to obscure their true motivation.
So you are in favor of that aspect of the EU?
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- the results showing the trend among age and education was interesting.
-was there ever much of a new grass roots campaign to initiate this latest vote? I don't see much before Jan. This year (other than the regular anti Eu that I assume existed since the day they first joined)?
Was this from 'the people' or really just originating from the other group of 'elites'?
I know what the answer is. Many of the "takers" are in the South and are now Republican states.
The thing about liberals is that if you do not agree with them it is due to fear, and you are immediately branded a bigot, a xenophobe and a racist. In this thread we have Gr8, 44 and qaz playing the Hate card because I am not brain-dead to the very real and well-demonstrated possibility of jihad by immigrant moslems and their progeny. And even if they don't do it, do you understand the enormous expense and manpower needed to keep these Islamic goons under 24/7 surveillance?
And maybe Merkel's open door policy isn't a good idea for reasons other than Hate? Like national security, domestic security, cultural suicide, massive additions to the welfare state?
Conservatives really should start playing the Hate card against liberals who disagree with them. Goes like this: What do you guys think of expanding the KKK and Aryan Nation in America's heartland? You don't think it's a good idea? Why, you are bigots and xenophobes and obviously racist.
And maybe Merkel's open door policy isn't a good idea for reasons other than Hate? Like national security, domestic security, cultural suicide, massive additions to the welfare state?
Conservatives really should start playing the Hate card against liberals who disagree with them. Goes like this: What do you guys think of expanding the KKK and Aryan Nation in America's heartland? You don't think it's a good idea? Why, you are bigots and xenophobes and obviously racist.
Here they go again. The Brits who voted for Brexit are R*A*C*I*S*T*S!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...d171d0-3ad2-11e6-af02-1df55f0c77ff_story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...d171d0-3ad2-11e6-af02-1df55f0c77ff_story.html
