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Brexit

I don't really care one way or the other. Pluses and minuses to the EU. Holistically, Europe is too diverse I think for something like the EU to work without the long history of working through the challenges of melding diverse political and social viewpoints as we have here plus at least having a somewhat collective, national mindset, and we only barely accomplish making it work.
 
I don't really care one way or the other. Pluses and minuses to the EU. Holistically, Europe is too diverse I think for something like the EU to work without the long history of working through the challenges of melding diverse political and social viewpoints as we have here plus at least having a somewhat collective, national mindset, and we only barely accomplish making it work.
This ruling might tip it for Brexit....

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...cumented-refugees-jailed-160607140328793.html
 
Not really surprising if you look at the referendum graph: liberals want to stay; conservatives want to leave. I'm betting if you took an immigration reform poll in the US, it'd look the same for similar ideas. Cons wanting to restrict immigration however possible, liberals being more open to it.
 
Not really surprising if you look at the referendum graph: liberals want to stay; conservatives want to leave. I'm betting if you took an immigration reform poll in the US, it'd look the same for similar ideas. Cons wanting to restrict immigration however possible, liberals being more open to it.
not quite that clear though...the rich and the young want to stay, the old and the poor want to leave. Scotland really wants to stay, everywhere else wants to leave. One might even suggest that if Scotland had gone independent, then the remainder of the UK would be strongly in favor of the BREXIT...so you could have the odd situation of the UK leaving and Scotland remaining in that scenario.

At any rate, the EU was always going to be a shaky concept across an entire continent filled with pretty significant political, cultural and national differences...particularly when they historically have been as prone to fight each other as unify.
 
At any rate, the EU was always going to be a shaky concept across an entire continent filled with pretty significant political, cultural and national differences...particularly when they historically have been as prone to fight each other as unify.
It is interesting that a group of white folks could figure out so many different ways to disagree about the same stuff despite living in close proximity to each other for generations, but we saw that when this country started and people from different backgrounds immediately moved into separate neighborhoods so they didn't have to live next to the Ities and the drunken Irishmen. Essentially, they just wanted to move to an Italy that wasn't in Italy and had different politics. Same as it ever was...
 
not quite that clear though...the rich and the young want to stay, the old and the poor want to leave. Scotland really wants to stay, everywhere else wants to leave. One might even suggest that if Scotland had gone independent, then the remainder of the UK would be strongly in favor of the BREXIT...so you could have the odd situation of the UK leaving and Scotland remaining in that scenario.

At any rate, the EU was always going to be a shaky concept across an entire continent filled with pretty significant political, cultural and national differences...particularly when they historically have been as prone to fight each other as unify.
qaz, the foremost significance of Brexit is that other EU nations will do the same. Many Europeans very much resent having EU officials is Brussels dictate policy to them - quotas of migrants they must accept, welfare policies for foreign residents, environmental issues, etc. If Brexit happens, Nexit is a done deal and the EU Balkan countries probably not far behind. We may see the EU disbanding entirely.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...n-referendum-Holland-Netherlands-Brexit-Nexit
 
qaz, the foremost significance of Brexit is that other EU nations will do the same. Many Europeans very much resent having EU officials is Brussels dictate policy to them - quotas of migrants they must accept, welfare policies for foreign residents, environmental issues, etc. If Brexit happens, Nexit is a done deal and the EU Balkan countries probably not far behind. We may see the EU disbanding entirely.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...n-referendum-Holland-Netherlands-Brexit-Nexit
I'm not sure why you seem to be rooting for this...
 
I'm not sure why you seem to be rooting for this...
Not sure why you think the EU is a good thing. Historically strong nations have in essence given up their sovereignty in favor of a social experiment in which the rights of the individual and the rights of countries are being increasingly trampled upon by bureaucrats in Brussels. I am glad the Brits are looking at doing this and wish Germany would do the same. Germans I know are sick of being the EU's "bank of last resort" and of bailing out financially irresponsible countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. All the while being flooded with millions of immigrants whom most of the natives don't want in their country to start with.

And the liberal leaders of our country want the USA to become increasingly like the EU. No thank you! In the end, this is all about control of the masses and restricting the liberty of citizens in order to further the aims of an elite few.
 
Not sure why you think the EU is a good thing. Historically strong nations have in essence given up their sovereignty in favor of a social experiment in which the rights of the individual and the rights of countries are being increasingly trampled upon by bureaucrats in Brussels. I am glad the Brits are looking at doing this and wish Germany would do the same. Germans I know are sick of being the EU's "bank of last resort" and of bailing out financially irresponsible countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. All the while being flooded with millions of immigrants whom most of the natives don't want in their country to start with.

And the liberal leaders of our country want the USA to become increasingly like the EU. No thank you! In the end, this is all about control of the masses and restricting the liberty of citizens in order to further the aims of an elite few.
You need to study your history if you don't understand the reasonable motivations behind why the Europeans might want something like the EU given literally centuries of almost constant warring between them. And your last sentence is silliness...what does that even mean, to be like the EU?

I can only assume you meant "adopt some of the more liberal policies favored in Europe" which is not remotely the same thing as "be like the EU" since many of those specific policies are favored by most of the nations in the EU individually.

Whether or not the EU can work because of differences between the nations aside, there are fundamental and legitimate positive reasons in favor of the EU not just to prevent wars, but to increase the economic power of European nations in a global economy, and for other reasons. There are also reasons opposed to it. We will see which wins out.
 
I don't think the migrant lunacy will stop by disbanding the EU. That will stop when the civil war in Syria stops and the terrorist unrest in the ME stops, and not before it. No, disbanding the EU will simply limit the crisis to a select few countries instead of spreading it across a greater swath of land and population that's more likely to be able to handle it.

As to why the EU is good, from an American's perspective, I can think of two things: 1) very easy travel in and around Europe; 2) closer economic ties and common goals and currency among historically tense nations.
 
I don't think the migrant lunacy will stop by disbanding the EU. That will stop when the civil war in Syria stops and the terrorist unrest in the ME stops, and not before it. No, disbanding the EU will simply limit the crisis to a select few countries instead of spreading it across a greater swath of land and population that's more likely to be able to handle it.

As to why the EU is good, from an American's perspective, I can think of two things: 1) very easy travel in and around Europe; 2) closer economic ties and common goals and currency among historically tense nations.
Of the two "good" reasons listed - 1) Actually makes it easier for criminals and terrorists to move around the EU and to avoid being caught. Case in point - the terrorists who attacked Paris used the "very easy travel" to escape to Belgium before the French even knew they were gone. They avoided detection in some cases for weeks. 2) Since WW II, has Germany threatened war with France? Has France threatened war with Great Britain? Has any major Western European country threatened another major Western European country since the end of WW II? I can't think of any. Europe was already working more closely together before the EU actually formally came into existence. For instance, the formation of EADS, which became Airbus.
 
You need to study your history if you don't understand the reasonable motivations behind why the Europeans might want something like the EU given literally centuries of almost constant warring between them. And your last sentence is silliness...what does that even mean, to be like the EU?

I can only assume you meant "adopt some of the more liberal policies favored in Europe" which is not remotely the same thing as "be like the EU" since many of those specific policies are favored by most of the nations in the EU individually.

Whether or not the EU can work because of differences between the nations aside, there are fundamental and legitimate positive reasons in favor of the EU not just to prevent wars, but to increase the economic power of European nations in a global economy, and for other reasons. There are also reasons opposed to it. We will see which wins out.
Again, has any Western European nation threatened another since the end of WW II? Not that I can think of.

In the end, much of what is happening in the EU is being shoved downs the throats of the people. The EU is a great social experiment and "the powers that be" in it seem intent on trampling the sovereignty of nations and on the rights of the people.
 
Of the two "good" reasons listed - 1) Actually makes it easier for criminals and terrorists to move around the EU and to avoid being caught. Case in point - the terrorists who attacked Paris used the "very easy travel" to escape to Belgium before the French even knew they were gone. They avoided detection in some cases for weeks. 2) Since WW II, has Germany threatened war with France? Has France threatened war with Great Britain? Has any major Western European country threatened another major Western European country since the end of WW II? I can't think of any. Europe was already working more closely together before the EU actually formally came into existence. For instance, the formation of EADS, which became Airbus.

It's interesting the dichotomy here: 1) you post the negative outcome; 2) you assume only the positive outcome based on limited history.

I would not trust that 1000 years of a history of war among European nations is now over for good simply because it hasn't happened on a certain half of the continent in the last 70 years. In fact, I would say that it might be becoming more likely that there is an armed conflict in Europe in the semi-near future because a lot of indicators are pointing towards that - increased xenophobia and the rise of ultra-nationalist parties in France and Germany, in particular.

I would think that you, of all people, would be a proponent of freedom - freedom of travel, etc. etc., but again you show why the right wing in this country is hypocritical - freedom is good so long as it doesn't impinge even the slightest on safety. Except freedom to bear arms, which is totally different. This one post embodies my frustration with Conservatives who can't seem to reconcile their own conflict with "FREEDOM!!!!!!" vs. "National Security". I don't get it.
 
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Again, has any Western European nation threatened another since the end of WW II? Not that I can think of.

In the end, much of what is happening in the EU is being shoved downs the throats of the people. The EU is a great social experiment and "the powers that be" in it seem intent on trampling the sovereignty of nations and on the rights of the people.
There have been no hot wars in Western Europe since WWII due to NATO, not the EU. We had a Cold War. The great and common threat of the Soviet Union overshadowed any local infighting.
 
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There have been no hot wars in Western Europe since WWII due to NATO, not the EU. We had a Cold War. The great and common threat of the Soviet Union overshadowed any local infighting.
Aren't NATO and the EU essentially part and parcel of the same thing? They aren't the same thing but a large subset of countries are the same.
 
It's interesting the dichotomy here: 1) you post the negative outcome; 2) you assume only the positive outcome based on limited history.

I would not trust that 1000 years of a history of war among European nations is now over for good simply because it hasn't happened on a certain half of the continent in the last 70 years. In fact, I would say that it might be becoming more likely that there is an armed conflict in Europe in the semi-near future because a lot of indicators are pointing towards that - increased xenophobia and the rise of ultra-nationalist parties in France and Germany, in particular.

I would think that you, of all people, would be a proponent of freedom - freedom of travel, etc. etc., but again you show why the right wing in this country is hypocritical - freedom is good so long as it doesn't impinge even the slightest on safety. Except freedom to bear arms, which is totally different. This one post embodies my frustration with Conservatives who can't seem to reconcile their own conflict with "FREEDOM!!!!!!" vs. "National Security". I don't get it.
Dichotomy? I just happened to post a negative thing and a positive thing. You've read more into what I said than what I actually said.

So you contend that armed conflict in Western Europe is becoming more likely? Germany and France have militaries, for instance, than are a shell of what they used to be. Exactly what kind of war could they actually fight? If there is an increase in likelihood, it's gone from 1% to maybe 3%. Europeans don't have the desire or determination to actively fight (front lines) in a real war anymore. Yes, they are part of "peacekeeping missions", but that is not the same as fighting in WWI or WW II.

I am a proponent of freedom of travel and national security and the right to bear arms. This is not a binary decision. What I have trouble with is when travel protocols/accesses are so lax, as they seem to be in the EU now, that people can commit heinous crimes in one country and skate into another one and disappear. I do have a problem with that.
 
Aren't NATO and the EU essentially part and parcel of the same thing? They aren't the same thing but a large subset of countries are the same.
Timeline is different as are functions. NATO includes the US and Canada, is concerned with defense only and pretty much became a hollow shell of itself after the wall came down in 1989(?). The EU came about 1999-2003 and is all about economics, common currency, unrestricted travel and lots of stuff about residency, immigration, social policy, etc. To my knowledge, EU has no imvolvement with military matters.
 
It's interesting the dichotomy here: 1) you post the negative outcome; 2) you assume only the positive outcome based on limited history.

I would not trust that 1000 years of a history of war among European nations is now over for good simply because it hasn't happened on a certain half of the continent in the last 70 years. In fact, I would say that it might be becoming more likely that there is an armed conflict in Europe in the semi-near future because a lot of indicators are pointing towards that - increased xenophobia and the rise of ultra-nationalist parties in France and Germany, in particular.

I would think that you, of all people, would be a proponent of freedom - freedom of travel, etc. etc., but again you show why the right wing in this country is hypocritical - freedom is good so long as it doesn't impinge even the slightest on safety. Except freedom to bear arms, which is totally different. This one post embodies my frustration with Conservatives who can't seem to reconcile their own conflict with "FREEDOM!!!!!!" vs. "National Security". I don't get it.
So the "freedom" of traveling between sovereign nations is on par with freedoms listed in the US bill of rights? holy smokes dude.
 
Dichotomy? I just happened to post a negative thing and a positive thing. You've read more into what I said than what I actually said.

So you contend that armed conflict in Western Europe is becoming more likely? Germany and France have militaries, for instance, than are a shell of what they used to be. Exactly what kind of war could they actually fight? If there is an increase in likelihood, it's gone from 1% to maybe 3%. Europeans don't have the desire or determination to actively fight (front lines) in a real war anymore. Yes, they are part of "peacekeeping missions", but that is not the same as fighting in WWI or WW II.

I am a proponent of freedom of travel and national security and the right to bear arms. This is not a binary decision. What I have trouble with is when travel protocols/accesses are so lax, as they seem to be in the EU now, that people can commit heinous crimes in one country and skate into another one and disappear. I do have a problem with that.
The issue I have is not your view, it is your rationale. You cited a very small portion of history which has been relatively peaceful between countries with long histories of ideological and armed conflict on one hand, but then cited one or two attacks over the course decades where people have carried out an attack in one country, then fled to another country within the EU. In both cases, scanty evidence is cited to prove your point. So no, "dichotomy" is not the right word. Sorry. Poorly formed arguments.

Yes, I contend that at some point in the future, there will be armed conflict in Europe. I feel pretty safe contending that considering some might say we're already there between Russia and Ukraine. I'm pretty sure the French didn't want to fight the Germans... most times you don't have a two-sided vote: it only takes one (again, Russia/Ukraine).

In terms of the EU, the freedom of travel between them is akin to our ability to travel within states. I don't see why that's a negative... someone can commit a crime here and drive from RI to Massachusetts in a matter of a half hour or less. Given that these are not non-extradition countries, the only argument then is that they don't share criminal and intelligence information well, but that remains a problem even with further travel restrictions.

Furthermore, citing ease of travel from one place to the next as a primary concern with the EU is pretty silly given that passport and identity fraud amongst terrorist organizations borders on the trivial.

Anyway.
 
The issue I have is not your view, it is your rationale. You cited a very small portion of history which has been relatively peaceful between countries with long histories of ideological and armed conflict on one hand, but then cited one or two attacks over the course decades where people have carried out an attack in one country, then fled to another country within the EU. In both cases, scanty evidence is cited to prove your point. So no, "dichotomy" is not the right word. Sorry. Poorly formed arguments.

Yes, I contend that at some point in the future, there will be armed conflict in Europe. I feel pretty safe contending that considering some might say we're already there between Russia and Ukraine. I'm pretty sure the French didn't want to fight the Germans... most times you don't have a two-sided vote: it only takes one (again, Russia/Ukraine).

In terms of the EU, the freedom of travel between them is akin to our ability to travel within states. I don't see why that's a negative... someone can commit a crime here and drive from RI to Massachusetts in a matter of a half hour or less. Given that these are not non-extradition countries, the only argument then is that they don't share criminal and intelligence information well, but that remains a problem even with further travel restrictions.

Furthermore, citing ease of travel from one place to the next as a primary concern with the EU is pretty silly given that passport and identity fraud amongst terrorist organizations borders on the trivial.

Anyway.
I said in Western Europe not far Eastern Europe. Could Putin start a war? Sure. Germany? Not likely. France? Not Likely.

Traveling between supposedly sovereign nations is not the same as traveling between states in my book. European countries don't share their intelligence and criminal data well. If there are travel restrictions, the bad guys would have much more trouble going from one place to another undetected, correct?

Thank you for helping to make my point for me. With the dangers the terrorists pose and the fraud they commit, there should be greater travel restrictions in the EU.
 
I said in Western Europe not far Eastern Europe. Could Putin start a war? Sure. Germany? Not likely. France? Not Likely.

Traveling between supposedly sovereign nations is not the same as traveling between states in my book. European countries don't share their intelligence and criminal data well. If there are travel restrictions, the bad guys would have much more trouble going from one place to another undetected, correct?

Thank you for helping to make my point for me. With the dangers the terrorists pose and the fraud they commit, there should be greater travel restrictions in the EU.

The EU's Schengen Area (free travel zone, first map below) really isn't like traveling between states in the US. Not all EU countries participate, notably UK and Ireland do not, and not all of them use the Euro as currency. And with regard to the migrant crisis, not all of them are on board with the policy of throwing the doors open and letting them all in, nor with the quota policy for distributing migrants.

250px-Map_of_the_Schengen_Area.svg.png
eurobail4.jpg
 
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The EU's Schengen Area (free travel zone, first map below) really isn't like traveling between states in the US. Not all EU countries participate, notably UK and Ireland do not, and not all of them use the Euro as currency. And with regard to the migrant crisis, not all of them are on board with the policy of throwing the doors open and letting them all in, nor with the quota policy for distributing migrants.

250px-Map_of_the_Schengen_Area.svg.png
eurobail4.jpg


I'm always skeptical of these polls but the latest has Brits favoring Brexit 55-45%

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/UK-voters-favor-Brexit/2016/06/10/id/733358/
 
Let's hope this holds up. Careful, some on here will try to besmirch your source.
Actually, I wouldn't blame them. Seems like these polls tend to get findings that reflect the political posture of their sponsor.

I live on the IN-KY border near Louisville. During the last KY Senate contest, the far-left Louisville Courier-Journal commissioned the Bluegrass Poll for the race. The poll had Dem Allison Grimes 2 points ahead of GOP Mitch McConnell the day before the election. She lost by 15 points.

And the Republicans are equally guilty of such shenanigans. You'll get considerably different numbers if you poll people outside Wal-Mart vs Costco.
 
The jihad attack at the Orlando night club may seal the deal for Brexit. Much of the concern over remaining in the EU revolved around immigration and, bluntly stated, Islamic migrants. If this incident shifts just a few more votes toward Brexit, that should be enough.

The UK allows religious freedom but unlike the US, the countries have established state religions. The Church of England is Anglican, ditto Church of Wales, Church of Scotland Episcopalian I believe. Irony is that some Muslim countries also have established state religions but without the tolerance for other beliefs. Thus it is less controversial for the Brits to block other sects from entering the country based upon religion vs the US.
 
From many posts in this thread you appear to believe Brexit is likely but personally and literally I would bet against it.
The "Leavers" make a strong case. In 2015, the UK paid $18.5 billion into the EU and received $6.4 billion in EU spending. Much of that money goes to bailing out loser countries like Greece, which would be OK if problems were resolved but obviously the money is squandered and they want more handouts the next year. There is much concern immigration, especially with the EU policy of throwing the doors open to migrants from the Mideast and North Africa.

If Brexit happens, I think it will be the beginning of the end for the EU. Finland and the Netherlands have already said that they will have a referendum if Britain leaves.
 
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The "Leavers" make a strong case. In 2015, the UK paid $18.5 billion into the EU and received $6.4 billion in EU spending. Much of that money goes to bailing out loser countries like Greece, which would be OK if problems were resolved but obviously the money is squandered and they want more handouts the next year. There is much concern immigration, especially with the EU policy of throwing the doors open to migrants from the Mideast and North Africa.

If Brexit happens, I think it will be the beginning of the end for the EU. Finland and the Netherlands have already said that they will have a referendum if Britain leaves.
Economics are certainly an important issue here, but it is also about maintaining sovereignty. Individual countries are losing the ability to self-govern to bureaucrats in Brussels. The people in these countries don't like it. The bureaucrats have agendae that are anathema to the will of the people oftentimes.
 
BBC Projects Britain has voted to "Leave".


Biggest short-term impact is to the UK of course, but Japan isn't far behind them with a several percent rise in the yen, ~8% drop in the Nikkei, and an economy and debt structure that can afford neither of those adjustments. Bank of Japan of course will print trillions more yen as a result, but, they're teetering on the edge of credibility loss already and if they're not careful this could nudge term right over that edge.

Longer-term as someone pointed out earlier there's going to be political pressure for at least a few other countries (such as France) to consider holding referendums for leaving, given that their citizenry recently polled in favor of leaving something like 60 to 40.
 
Biggest short-term impact is to the UK of course, but Japan isn't far behind them with a several percent rise in the yen, ~8% drop in the Nikkei, and an economy and debt structure that can afford neither of those adjustments. Bank of Japan of course will print trillions more yen as a result, but, they're teetering on the edge of credibility loss already and if they're not careful this could nudge term right over that edge.

Longer-term as someone pointed out earlier there's going to be political pressure for at least a few other countries (such as France) to consider holding referendums for leaving, given that their citizenry recently polled in favor of leaving something like 60 to 40.
Scotland is going to leave the UK now, and there is talk of NI unifying with Ireland and even Wales going independent. I suspect it's just going to be England 10 years from now, and just England is not all that more important economically-speaking if at all then France and certainly well less so than Germany. They may gain their "independence" but they are going to lose quite a bit more IMO.
 
congrats to the PEOPLE of the UK on fending off the globalist master of the universe bankers of the world. We're not all in this together. It's time people figured that out. Maybe this country will also figure it out.
 
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