Purdue faithful,
It seems like the bowl game outlook has gotten worse every day. The latest rumor is O'Connell is out, which then I question who else would be out due to contact tracing. Don't panic from tomorrow's result, it doesn't mean the program had a bad year, or that Brohm's a bad coach and can't win a bowl game, or that they don't stack up talent wise to other teams, etc. A lot of the result will be due to circumstance, not the state of the program. Unfortunately, we will not see the same Purdue team we saw during the season and the game could get ugly.
Bowl game will have 4-5 new offensive starters in different positions (LT, RT, WR1, WR2) and maybe QB.
- Remember Plummer transferred, so QB3/QB4 would be starting, combined they have thrown 7 passes for Purdue in two years each.
- Missing 4/5 top outside receivers and the 5th is playing injured, guys that have hardly seen the field will be playing (Sullivan - no stats in 11 games. Terrell no stats in 2 games). I don't anticipate the QB and those receivers being always on the same page or catching everything.
- top 2 TE's were not 100% healthy at end of season either.
- the offensive line continuity has really helped this team this year. EM might be sliding over to LT, but that's not his normal position he's been at all season, so manage expectations, could get ugly for the line.
The bowl game defensively will have at least 2 new starters.
- Everyone's mentioned Tennessee's ability to pass, but don't forget Tennessee's running ability.
- Missing 3 year starter and game disrupter GK is a huge impact. I feel like Purdue's run defense numbers look better than they really are.
- Missing 5th year senior CB Mackey (27 starts, 43 appearances) had a lot of experience and seemed to tackle well, conference honorable mention. Secondary was already thin before this. Brown has been nicked up throughout the season and Kane doesn't have the experience and this is a tough matchup.
Who knows who else could be out.
Anyway, by next season, you're looking at:
- Defensively, if they can generate a consistent pass rush, to be even better in 2022 with all the seniors. There will be 4 starting/rotation 5th year seniors on the DL, the best LB (senior) coming back, 6 secondary players that will have 4+ years of experience and all have been starters.
- Offensively, O'Connell's really the lynch-pin for how well the 2022 team will do. His 2021 passer rating is the highest of all Tiller, Hope, Hazel and Brohm years. Can he sustain or further improve his play? Unfortunately he's going to have multiple new WR starters to work with. So a very hyped QB room and 6th year senior, improved RB room depth and explosiveness, improved WR room (from bowl game availability), 3/5 returning starters at OL (all upperclassman) + a hopeful plug and play senior OL transfer and several experienced upperclassman TE's.
Schedule:
- 3 non-conference games that do not include a juggernaut - each team won 5 games in 2021
- Penn St, Maryland and Indiana as crossovers + 6 BIG West opponents.
Opening against Penn St is not ideal, nor playing Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin consecutively but 3/4 of those games are at home, then a bye week and 4 winnable games, although 3 are on the road.
Optimism for 2022 is in the air. Don't let 1 game change that.
Recruiting:
As a final thought, Brohm has really made an emphasis lately to get players from the state of Indiana, I think it's a solid recruiting strategy, build a relationship and trust with these high school's and that could influence a couple players from going out of state in future recruiting cycles, or influence players that did go out of state to transfer to Purdue. It could also lower the chances the players transfer out.
See the difference below? 19 players in the last 3 years + more "behind the scenes" walk-ons.
2018 - 3/25 HS players (Johnson, Deen, Ball)
2019 - 3/27 HS players (Karlaftis, Bell, Triplett)
2020 - 2/22 HS players (Hartwig, Brandt) transfers Johnson, Tuinei
2021 - 5/16 HS players (Karlaftis, Terrell, Alstott-VanDeVanter, Richards, Moussa) transfers James, Thompson, Downing
2022 - 5/20 (Allen, Strickland, Jefferson, Moon, Omonode) transfers Taylor, Tracy
Check out what some other BIG10 teams can do in their states. Here's some 2021 info.
Ohio State 2021 5/8 top in state players
Wisconsin 2021 ~4/7 top in state players
Minnesota 2021 4/10 top in state players
Rutgers 8 from NJ, #1 player from NJ and NY.
Maryland 8 players from MD
Iowa 3/8 top in state players; including top 2 players
Michigan St 4/9 top in state players
Indiana 3/10 top players
Purdue 2/7 top players (#6, #7); 3/17 top players
It seems like the bowl game outlook has gotten worse every day. The latest rumor is O'Connell is out, which then I question who else would be out due to contact tracing. Don't panic from tomorrow's result, it doesn't mean the program had a bad year, or that Brohm's a bad coach and can't win a bowl game, or that they don't stack up talent wise to other teams, etc. A lot of the result will be due to circumstance, not the state of the program. Unfortunately, we will not see the same Purdue team we saw during the season and the game could get ugly.
Bowl game will have 4-5 new offensive starters in different positions (LT, RT, WR1, WR2) and maybe QB.
- Remember Plummer transferred, so QB3/QB4 would be starting, combined they have thrown 7 passes for Purdue in two years each.
- Missing 4/5 top outside receivers and the 5th is playing injured, guys that have hardly seen the field will be playing (Sullivan - no stats in 11 games. Terrell no stats in 2 games). I don't anticipate the QB and those receivers being always on the same page or catching everything.
- top 2 TE's were not 100% healthy at end of season either.
- the offensive line continuity has really helped this team this year. EM might be sliding over to LT, but that's not his normal position he's been at all season, so manage expectations, could get ugly for the line.
The bowl game defensively will have at least 2 new starters.
- Everyone's mentioned Tennessee's ability to pass, but don't forget Tennessee's running ability.
- Missing 3 year starter and game disrupter GK is a huge impact. I feel like Purdue's run defense numbers look better than they really are.
- Missing 5th year senior CB Mackey (27 starts, 43 appearances) had a lot of experience and seemed to tackle well, conference honorable mention. Secondary was already thin before this. Brown has been nicked up throughout the season and Kane doesn't have the experience and this is a tough matchup.
Who knows who else could be out.
Anyway, by next season, you're looking at:
- Defensively, if they can generate a consistent pass rush, to be even better in 2022 with all the seniors. There will be 4 starting/rotation 5th year seniors on the DL, the best LB (senior) coming back, 6 secondary players that will have 4+ years of experience and all have been starters.
- Offensively, O'Connell's really the lynch-pin for how well the 2022 team will do. His 2021 passer rating is the highest of all Tiller, Hope, Hazel and Brohm years. Can he sustain or further improve his play? Unfortunately he's going to have multiple new WR starters to work with. So a very hyped QB room and 6th year senior, improved RB room depth and explosiveness, improved WR room (from bowl game availability), 3/5 returning starters at OL (all upperclassman) + a hopeful plug and play senior OL transfer and several experienced upperclassman TE's.
Schedule:
- 3 non-conference games that do not include a juggernaut - each team won 5 games in 2021
- Penn St, Maryland and Indiana as crossovers + 6 BIG West opponents.
Opening against Penn St is not ideal, nor playing Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin consecutively but 3/4 of those games are at home, then a bye week and 4 winnable games, although 3 are on the road.
Optimism for 2022 is in the air. Don't let 1 game change that.
Recruiting:
As a final thought, Brohm has really made an emphasis lately to get players from the state of Indiana, I think it's a solid recruiting strategy, build a relationship and trust with these high school's and that could influence a couple players from going out of state in future recruiting cycles, or influence players that did go out of state to transfer to Purdue. It could also lower the chances the players transfer out.
See the difference below? 19 players in the last 3 years + more "behind the scenes" walk-ons.
2018 - 3/25 HS players (Johnson, Deen, Ball)
2019 - 3/27 HS players (Karlaftis, Bell, Triplett)
2020 - 2/22 HS players (Hartwig, Brandt) transfers Johnson, Tuinei
2021 - 5/16 HS players (Karlaftis, Terrell, Alstott-VanDeVanter, Richards, Moussa) transfers James, Thompson, Downing
2022 - 5/20 (Allen, Strickland, Jefferson, Moon, Omonode) transfers Taylor, Tracy
Check out what some other BIG10 teams can do in their states. Here's some 2021 info.
Ohio State 2021 5/8 top in state players
Wisconsin 2021 ~4/7 top in state players
Minnesota 2021 4/10 top in state players
Rutgers 8 from NJ, #1 player from NJ and NY.
Maryland 8 players from MD
Iowa 3/8 top in state players; including top 2 players
Michigan St 4/9 top in state players
Indiana 3/10 top players
Purdue 2/7 top players (#6, #7); 3/17 top players
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