CHICAGO — Good evening from the United Center, where Purdue opens postseason play with a Big Ten Tournament meeting with Minnesota, another school that starts with M, and all of the Boilermakers’ losses in Big Ten play this season have been dealt by schools that start with M.
Keep ‘em out of the open floor, and Purdue should be stand a strong chance to advance to tomorrow. It’s pretty simple, based off the Boilermakers’ 80-minute body of work this season vs. the Gophers.
But let’s glance right over today’s matchup and talk about some heavier topics.
Purdue’s the regular season Big Ten champion already. It has made something pretty special of this season, and to be honest, to me, anything that comes on top of it is gravy, because I do feel like the Boilermakers have overachieved to be where they are today and I don’t know what their postseason ceiling is.
That starts today in an event that, truth be told, doesn’t matter all that much to NCAA Tournament-secure teams unless they’re going to win the whole enchilada. Purdue’s set as a 3 seed, most likely, provided LSU and Texas Tech losing quickly in their conference tournament don't cause some rippling.
After that, though, Purdue’s model comes to the forefront, its reliance on Carsen Edwards and the vulnerability it creates, that is.
The Boilermakers have been a picture of efficiency this season according to the data, and that’s been fascinating to see because it’s built around a player who on average missed two thirds of his shots in Big Ten play on near national-high usage and finished the conference season with seven more turnovers than assists, speaking to his tendency to force things against the attention he draws, as opposed to flipping it on opponents. That’s what I meant when I said a couple weeks ago that the aura of Carsen Edwards has been as important a player for Purdue as Carsen Edwards in the flesh. Thing is, Purdue doesn’t always weaponize it.
Look, Purdue won the Big Ten Feb. 19 and 23, when it won on the scoreboard only at Indiana and Nebraska, in the face of rough games by Edwards, in contests that came down to good fortune, or as some might call it, "luck."
It was luck that Purdue itself generated — Matt Haarms made a great play at IU, and Grady Eifert two of them in Lincoln — but luck nonetheless.
The numbers from this season suggest that those conditions were close to Purdue’s normal than not.
Those games came down to luck.
Do you want to rely on luck with your season on the line?
Last weekend, Purdue played for a championship at Northwestern, and Edwards missed two-thirds of his shots. It didn’t matter, because he also finished with five assists to just one turnover.
That’s what Purdue needs from here on out from its star, a player who takes a higher percentage of his team’s shots and is “used” on a higher percentage of his team’s possessions than almost any player in college basketball, yet holds the eighth-best offensive rating on his team, per KenPom. That’s an apples-to-oranges comparison being made of Edwards against teammates in very different roles, at very different usage rates, but it does highlight what Purdue’s built on here, and how delicate a balance that can create in March should 3-of-16, or 4-of-19, or 6-of-20, or 4-of-24, or 7-of-31 strike at the wrong time and he doesn’t move the basketball.
That’s not a stab at Edwards, though I know some of you will read it that way. If it’s a stab at anything, it’s the blueprint, a blueprint that yielded a hell of a regular season for Purdue, improbably, but now might maximize risk.
On that happy note, thanks for joining us.
We’ll be back after the game with full coverage afterwards, only to be buried quickly by coverage tomorrow should there be a game tomorrow.
We’ll have updates in-game on Twitter at @brianneubert
Thanks for reading.
Keep ‘em out of the open floor, and Purdue should be stand a strong chance to advance to tomorrow. It’s pretty simple, based off the Boilermakers’ 80-minute body of work this season vs. the Gophers.
But let’s glance right over today’s matchup and talk about some heavier topics.
Purdue’s the regular season Big Ten champion already. It has made something pretty special of this season, and to be honest, to me, anything that comes on top of it is gravy, because I do feel like the Boilermakers have overachieved to be where they are today and I don’t know what their postseason ceiling is.
That starts today in an event that, truth be told, doesn’t matter all that much to NCAA Tournament-secure teams unless they’re going to win the whole enchilada. Purdue’s set as a 3 seed, most likely, provided LSU and Texas Tech losing quickly in their conference tournament don't cause some rippling.
After that, though, Purdue’s model comes to the forefront, its reliance on Carsen Edwards and the vulnerability it creates, that is.
The Boilermakers have been a picture of efficiency this season according to the data, and that’s been fascinating to see because it’s built around a player who on average missed two thirds of his shots in Big Ten play on near national-high usage and finished the conference season with seven more turnovers than assists, speaking to his tendency to force things against the attention he draws, as opposed to flipping it on opponents. That’s what I meant when I said a couple weeks ago that the aura of Carsen Edwards has been as important a player for Purdue as Carsen Edwards in the flesh. Thing is, Purdue doesn’t always weaponize it.
Look, Purdue won the Big Ten Feb. 19 and 23, when it won on the scoreboard only at Indiana and Nebraska, in the face of rough games by Edwards, in contests that came down to good fortune, or as some might call it, "luck."
It was luck that Purdue itself generated — Matt Haarms made a great play at IU, and Grady Eifert two of them in Lincoln — but luck nonetheless.
The numbers from this season suggest that those conditions were close to Purdue’s normal than not.
Those games came down to luck.
Do you want to rely on luck with your season on the line?
Last weekend, Purdue played for a championship at Northwestern, and Edwards missed two-thirds of his shots. It didn’t matter, because he also finished with five assists to just one turnover.
That’s what Purdue needs from here on out from its star, a player who takes a higher percentage of his team’s shots and is “used” on a higher percentage of his team’s possessions than almost any player in college basketball, yet holds the eighth-best offensive rating on his team, per KenPom. That’s an apples-to-oranges comparison being made of Edwards against teammates in very different roles, at very different usage rates, but it does highlight what Purdue’s built on here, and how delicate a balance that can create in March should 3-of-16, or 4-of-19, or 6-of-20, or 4-of-24, or 7-of-31 strike at the wrong time and he doesn’t move the basketball.
That’s not a stab at Edwards, though I know some of you will read it that way. If it’s a stab at anything, it’s the blueprint, a blueprint that yielded a hell of a regular season for Purdue, improbably, but now might maximize risk.
On that happy note, thanks for joining us.
We’ll be back after the game with full coverage afterwards, only to be buried quickly by coverage tomorrow should there be a game tomorrow.
We’ll have updates in-game on Twitter at @brianneubert
Thanks for reading.
