Below Expectations or Expectations too high?

[uelnesm]

So...the question is - do you think that this team has under-achieved...OR - were expectations at the beginning of the year elevated too high too quickly?

I don't have a strong point of view on this one way or another...I tend to think that the expectations early on the season escalated quickly. We then had ourselves set straight (or blew it) with the game at Butler. From there - it seems like we have had some decent ups (MSU), some crashing downs (Iowa) - and then some things that just should have happened (i.e. beat the teams we should have beat, lost to the teams we should have lost to - i.e. Maryland, @ Iowa, (not sure about IU)).

I do think - that if one of the other threads is correct - I would have expected better than a #8 seed in the BTT. I would have likely thought top 4...so - with that being said - I think we have under-achieved...with an opportunity to course correct?

What do you think?

 

[boilerzz]

I don't think it was the expectations at the beginning of the year that are the issue. After all, this team was ranked 24th in the preseason and are 20th now. Rather, I think some people thought Purdue starting 11-0 meant we were one of the best teams in the nation. IMO, those people were ignoring that this roster was still less than ideally constructed.

 

[uelnesm]

I don't think it was the expectations at the beginning of the year that are the issue. After all, this team was ranked 24th in the preseason and are 20th now. Rather, I think some people thought Purdue starting 11-0 meant we were one of the best teams in the nation. IMO, those people were ignoring that this roster was still less than ideally constructed.

Got it...so not putting words in your mouth.. "performance in-line with initial expectations"

 

[rgarlitz]

Ya, I think this team has about performed up to pre-season expectations. Purdue was ranked between 22 and 24 in most preseason polls, and that's about where the team is at going into the last couple weeks of the regular season.

The fast start -- mostly against teams that didn't know us well and didn't effectively exploit our weaknesses -- and early talk of final four potential probably led many of us to get a little ahead of ourselves.

We all knew coming into the season that the team would have a very good (maybe once in a generation good) front line, but we also knew about the question marks in the back court.

The injury to Ray Day obviously hasn't helped, and I really thought Mathias and Stephens would take bigger steps forward than they have. PJ's had a nice season, but he's more of an effective game manager than difference maker.

I wouldn't read too much into Purdue currently holding the #8 seed in the B1G tournament. That can change a lot over the next couple weeks.

 

[CRBoiler]

I think so far, inline with expectations: Good season, but not without some frustrating losses.

I think there is still a chance for the team to kick into a higher gear and perform like a top 10 team. Not an expectation as much as a hope.

Boiler Up!

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

We flat out played differently at the beginning of the year. We ran. We took an open shot. We pushed it on both ends. We had great interior passing. I don't know what happened to that team. Now we never run and are timid.

 

[rjmpu82]

I agree with TopSecret. Yes, people have figured us out to a certain extent, but we are just too one dimensional at this point.

 

[boiler_pride]

I think initially the expectations were a bit too high considering we really didn't have that great of a season last year. However, when the season started, we won some games and more importantly, it is clear that this is one of the weakest years in college basketball. There are no elite teams while in many other years there would be 3 or 4 at least. Same thing in the B1G.

At that point, I personally though we had a great chance for a B1G title and a FF run. On paper, we are not an elite team, but nobody else is. Moreover, we have a big size advantage which should force other teams to play our game -- on paper at least. If our guards performed just a bit above average, we would have no reason not to be a front-runner in the conference and nationally.

However it didn't turn out that way. I think partially our guard play has been quite below average both offensively and defensively. Our bigs have performed as we'd expect them (maybe better) but even they had mental lapses and poor effort games at times.

My conclusion is we are under-performing considering the rest of the field. This is a perfect year for an imperfect Purdue team to make a run and we blew the first part of it (B1G championship). We still can make a run in the tournament, but I just cannot get myself to hope that this inconsistent team will win 6 in a row against opponents that'll play very very hard.

 

[BBG]

I think so far, inline with expectations: Good season, but not without some frustrating losses.

I think there is still a chance for the team to kick into a higher gear and perform like a top 10 team. Not an expectation as much as a hope.

Boiler Up!

Agree with this. Early on in the season I was on board of the hype-train but that is easy to do when the competition isn't as tough night in and night out. However, the pre-season true experts had us pretty much spot on for where we are currently at and it is an imrpovement from last year.

Just a couple years ago we were in a dysmaal place. Painter admitingly took responsibility and has moved onward and upward. We only learn when we fail and I think he certainly has.

Also let's keep in mind that there was a plethora of rules that changed this year and we also could be impacted by the refs learning how to call games. On top of that, I can't see a coach making drastic changes until he sees how his system is impacted by those rules and that may not of been clear until recently and at that point it is rather late to change until you have a season's worth of data to go over.

Plus really we are a relatively young team. I too think there is still a hopeful chance to make some noise in the tourney, but I still think we are a couple years away from being the team we all hoped they would be THIS year. Only person that might leave early is Biggie IMO as he has a lot learn yet otherwise we are looking at a Senior led team with a lot of experience similar to Iowa really and that is huge.

We still are lacking a consistent PG but I think that is resolved with Edwards, granted not right away, but he will fill a glaring hole that exists right now. And it isn't for a lack of PJ or Hill not trying, just limited on what they can and can't do.

Now, I know some of the keyboard coaches want to fire Painter but logically that just makes little to no sense. Especially when you look at the bigger picture and what is coming in and the very obvious improvements. I will say however, that if in 2 years we a leveling off, then it might be time to look in a different direction when his contract is up. But to fire a coach that got to the tourney and has a 20+ win top 20 team just because our emotionally created expections are not met, just doesn't make sense to me..... yet.

Ultimately every year I will still expect Purdue to reach a Final Four. It doesn't matter who is coaching or who is on the team, but my expections will always be the same. I guess for me, when things don't turn out how I expect them to, I am not going to jump off of a ledge because of it.

 

[Secrefreakintariat]

I thought at the beginning of the season we were a Top 15 team so I feel we're playing below. Several of our guys I thought we could count on to be consistently good, have frankly, had poor to mediocre seasons. But there's still time to get hot and peak at the right time...starting with Maryland this Saturday!!

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I thought at the beginning of the season we were a Top 15 team so I feel we're playing below. Several of our guys I thought we could count on to be consistently good, have frankly, had poor to mediocre seasons. But there's still time to get hot and peak at the right time...starting with Maryland this Saturday!!

Agree with your assessment, especially the point made about guys playing inconsistently. Stephens, Mathias, and Cline were thought to be able to be interchangeable to provide a threat from outside. If one wasn't hitting, another would be able to step up. Too many times this season...all three have underperformed.

 

[FLAG HUNTER]

when I watch Purdue play, I think of grade school teams with a kid that grew up taller before the other kids, the team feeds him everytime, the other team knows he is getting the ball everytime, the rest of his team stand and watch, if the tall kid hits the shots they win, I just think Purdue needs to get others involved offensively more

 

[since1980]

We have 3 guys who I would say are close to being consistent from the beginning of the year and you pretty much know what you are going to get out of them each game (Hammons/Haas/Biggie). You know Biggie is going to come close to a double/double each game and has lowered his turnover rate...Hammons is effective on both ends as long as he is not in foul trouble, and Haas is generally effective in short spurts. Those guys are the focus of the offense.

Cline has looked more comfortable. PJ basically is used to reverse the ball and hit an occasional 3...nothing more, nothing less. Hill, I guess is used to reverse the ball?

However, the rest of the team have basically regressed from game 1. Vince and Ray are nowhere to be found half of the time. Mathias can barely get off the bench. Stephens doesn't play anymore. PJ is about the same I guess. Hill is not doing much.

College BBALL is all about guard play. Our guards have regressed, our offense has become extremely stagnant because all we do is look to feed the post. Defenses understand this and force us into bad possessions.

Our defense has gotten worse, especially when playing more athletic teams that take advantage of Biggie's perimeter defense.

I personally believe we are seeing that Painter doesn't really have much ability to get creative with talent. He is not putting our 1-4 men in positions to utilize their talents....instead pinning all of our hopes on our 5 men being dominant. We have no driving lanes. We can't defend the perimeter as teams are now realizing they can draw our bigs out on defense and Painter won't adjust (Luckily Olah from NW wasn't hitting 3's or we might have lost at home to them).

The last team that won a NCAA championship in which the focal point of the offense was a true offensive center and didn't have consistent scoring guard play was probably never.

I would say we are all going to look back after this season and realize Painter totally wasted Hammons senior year by creating such a 1-dimensional team and not making adjustments on either end. He is underutilizing our 1-4 men whom need utilized if we are going to have any chance at making a run in the tournament. I'm 100% off the Painter bandwagon and don't blame the players because I don't think Painter has put them in a good position to succeed and use their talents.

Below my expectations..

 

[Beeazlebub]

The injury to Ray Day obviously hasn't helped, and I really thought Mathias and Stephens would take bigger steps forward than they have. PJ's had a nice season, but he's more of an effective game manager than difference maker.

Davis and Stephens - I expected more from both players, and that is the main reason why I think we've, albeit slightly, underachieved so far this season. For whatever reason, Davis has been inconsistent offensively, and that has led to poor spacing and less flow on the offensive end. Between personal problems & poor decision making on the court, Stephens has turned into a non-factor. Will he get enough minutes to make an impact moving forward? Seems unlikely, but not impossible.

I know many disagree, but I still think this team can put together a strong enough showing in the tournament to make us all forget about being disgruntled in Jan/Feb. Even though this team has some glaring flaws, there isn't a team in the country where I would go into the game thinking we have no chance. The cavernous arenas in March can lead to poor shooting, and I like our chances against many teams given the higher % of our points come from the post.

 

[mathboy]

When folks say our guards have regressed, I think they simplify the situation. The very best coaches in college basketball have now analysed and coached their teams on how to exploit our weaknesses and negate our strengths. That is what you are seeing when you watch these BIG games at the end of the year. We are over scouted and opposing coaches know exactly how to attack our team.

Let's face it, we don't have all-BIG guards in our back court. We have some seviceable guys who play to the best of their ability. They are not as talented, fast, or tall as many of the guys we face. McBride, Valentine, Ferrel, RoJo, Jok, etc. are all probably have more talent than anybody on our team, in the back court. That does not mean we can't bury any of their teams by 20 points. It just means it is harder to do that when opposing coaches know us so well.

How can you say Painter Wasted Hammon's senior year? We are a top 20 team with as good a chance as we have ever had at making a run in the NCAAT. How can you make satements like that? Man, sometimes these comments have so little basis in fact taht I begin to wonder.

 

[BoilerBiker]

I personally believe we are seeing that Painter doesn't really have much ability to get creative with talent...

I felt he did in the past, especially back when we had teague and Landry.
Someone else mentioned this in another thread... We have the wrong combo/type of guys playing positions 1-5 now vs baby boiler teams when everything in painters scheme was maximized.
So I agree in part. He does have a plan, but much like in games, we don't seem to adjust as the season progresses.
We are losing scouting report battles that i think we used to win.

At this point of a season I feel there are no freshman anymore either, and with so many other teams with underclassmen too, I don't consider that as a primary reason.

 

[klmLB]

Some may rip me for it, but this is my honest take of this team.

This has been a tough team to watch because I LIKE almost EVERY one of our guys. If I'm completely honest though, I think the team has been disappointing across the board except for AJ Hammons, the freshman and PJ. Maybe that was me having too high of expectations based on how we finished last year and over valuing senior year Ray Davis.

AJ - He has to be a top 3 big nationally. His offensive game has improved so much. He hits from outside consistently and has effective post moves. Defensively, he is a beast. Good passer out of the post when double teamed.

RayDay - good guy, love him, but he is lacking offensive skill. Last year, he was more assertive from what I remember, no? I think people anticipated that - like most hard working seniors - there was going to be a big payoff. Not huge, but reliable, consistent 12 point scorer, lock down defender. Maybe he actually averages 12, but so many games, he has 0, 2, 4 points and is not a threat on the floor. He deserves a good senior year. Maybe it's the injury or not, but he has regressed. Maybe he can finish the season strong. Cmon, it's your last go around!

Edwards - I think it's more of the Swanigan effect, but he is a shell of what he was last year. Not assertive. Not going for his. When he does and is aggressive, he's really effective. When he's more of a role player, it's like he's not even on the court. I think that's also a product of our prodding offense. When he's the 4, he flourishes.

Stephens - I thought he would make a jump in improvement, but he has regressed or stayed the same. Now, he's in Painters dog house.

PJ - I like him. Doesn't make mistakes, but doesn't create opportunities. Not PJ's game or ability, but it would be nice to have a PG that could create opportunities for others through penetration. Not his fault tho. Never expected that from him. He's too short and not quick/long enough to cause problems defensively for opposition. Plays good position D though. He definitely maximizes his potential at the D1 level.

Mathias - I like him. Smart decisions. Decent enough D. Good outside shooter. Doesn't make too many mistakes. What's missing? Don't know. Maybe he needs more consistent time?

Haas - Improved his body, his offensive skill greatly over the summer. His free throws are almost automatic now. However, sometimes it's hard to believe he is 7'2". He probably plays the smallest 7'2". Gets his shots blocked semi regularly and surprising doesn't go up strong when near the rim. Defensively he is a bit of a sieve. That's more a product of his body type and the weight he carries, but if his weight is moving one way/direction, it's like the titanic trying to do a U-turn to go the other way. Smaller big guys just need to shot fake or jab and then have wide openings with little trouble.

Not really going to judge the freshman. I honestly didn't expect much from them. Like both of them. Let's be honest though ... Swanigan is a 4 year player (that's a good thing for Purdue). He has trouble guarding average stretch 4s in college. What would happen in the NBA? He's a hard worker though, but gaining and improving foot speed is probably one of the hardest things to physically do (much easier to gain strength or lose weight than to make big gains in footspeed/quickness). Cline will be good as long as Painter doesn't make him passive and afraid to shoot.

Coach Painter - We have the most deliberate, offensive system ever. It is so hard to watch. There is no triple threat (pass, shoot, dribble) from our perimeter players. I think we are one of the easiest teams to guard in the B1G except for AJ because of it. Stand and wait for the perfect lane to feed the post (and they seem to still miss a lot of passing lanes into the post when bigs have great position). Then stand. Very little movement, dynamics or cutting. Absolutely no dribble penetration or back door cuts. Our guys seem too focused on not making mistakes versus playing with an edge/passion. Too much edge/passion can be reckless, but I'd like to see our guys go for it more. We play too scared to make mistakes.

Due to defensive rule changes and our lack of speed/quickness, we play pretty good team defense and position D. I think our easy non-conference and blowout wins inflated the perceived ceiling of this team. Still think we could be Sweet 16, but that's not a given.

 

[since1980]

When folks say our guards have regressed, I think they simplify the situation. The very best coaches in college basketball have now analysed and coached their teams on how to exploit our weaknesses and negate our strengths. That is what you are seeing when you watch these BIG games at the end of the year. We are over scouted and opposing coaches know exactly how to attack our team.

Let's face it, we don't have all-BIG guards in our back court. We have some seviceable guys who play to the best of their ability. They are not as talented, fast, or tall as many of the guys we face. McBride, Valentine, Ferrel, RoJo, Jok, etc. are all probably have more talent than anybody on our team, in the back court. That does not mean we can't bury any of their teams by 20 points. It just means it is harder to do that when opposing coaches know us so well.

How can you say Painter Wasted Hammon's senior year? We are a top 20 team with as good a chance as we have ever had at making a run in the NCAAT. How can you make satements like that? Man, sometimes these comments have so little basis in fact taht I begin to wonder.

Because it is all about the tournament success, and guard play wins tournament games..not big men. Big men are just icing on the cake generally come tournament time. Hammons had a good game against Cincy in the tournament last year (their best player got thrown out) and our guards didn't do anything so we lost. Same in the BTT last year. Painters offensive system does not allow our guards to play to their strengths.
-Johny Hill is more than capable of attacking and finishing at the rim with his length and athleticism. He shoots 80% from the free throw line and needs to be getting there much more often. There are a lot of good point guards who aren't good 3 point shooters (see LewJack), but they are still effective attacking the paint and creating for others.
-Davis...same thing. Needs a driving lane to attack and get to the rim or foul line.
-Edwards, same thing..but he is more well rounded and good at pulling up for 15 feet, shooting over smaller 3's.
-Mathias and Cline are always taking contested shots, fading away, because our other guards aren't drawing defenders to get them open looks because our offense isn't designed to draw multiple defenders (except our post men getting doubled). A simple high pick and roll with a shooter in the corner and Johny Hill attacking the rim could get our 3 point shooters better looks or get us to the foul line a lot more (I.E exactly what IU did to us all game that we couldn't stop).

When we have JJ, Etwaun, LewJack and Rob....we used to have JJ set high ball screens, let LewJack attack the rim from the screen and put Byrd or Ryne Smith or Hummel in the corner to make it tough on defenses to pick what to defend if they help off. JJ could step back for a jumper or roll to the basket. Hammons is more than capable of hitting jumpers now and Hill could easily attack the rim with Cline/Mathias sitting in the corner. I'm not sure why Painter has stopped utilizing this set because it's so effective and difficult on defenses...especially now that Hammons can hit jumpers.
We have 2 offensive sets:
1) feed the post, reverse the ball, feed the post.
2) Pin down for Cline to shoot a 3 at the top of the key.
- We used to run a play for Stephens to come off a screen Reggie Miller style...but he doesn't play anymore.

We have nothing that gets our PG or Davis/Edwards attacking the rim...even though those are their strengths and makes our offense much more dynamic.

People are still full of hope that things are magically going to improve come tournament time...but that's just not going to happen unless Painter makes some serious adjustments to open up our offense...as well as stop putting Biggie in bad positions on defense. We could run into a good mid-major team with some athletes and shooters in round 1 and get bounced because we simply won't be able to keep up. I sound like an alarmist....but this team peaked against Florida and have gradually regressed since. We've lost 3 out of 5 (almost 4 out of 5) and very easily could be 4 out of 6 coming up this weekend. Just saying.

 

[rgarlitz]

Some may rip me for it, but this is my honest take of this team.

This has been a tough team to watch because I LIKE almost EVERY one of our guys. If I'm completely honest though, I think the team has been disappointing across the board except for AJ Hammons, the freshman and PJ. Maybe that was me having too high of expectations based on how we finished last year and over valuing senior year Ray Davis.

AJ - He has to be a top 3 big nationally. His offensive game has improved so much. He hits from outside consistently and has effective post moves. Defensively, he is a beast. Good passer out of the post when double teamed.

RayDay - good guy, love him, but he is lacking offensive skill. Last year, he was more assertive from what I remember, no? I think people anticipated that - like most hard working seniors - there was going to be a big payoff. Not huge, but reliable, consistent 12 point scorer, lock down defender. Maybe he actually averages 12, but so many games, he has 0, 2, 4 points and is not a threat on the floor. He deserves a good senior year. Maybe it's the injury or not, but he has regressed. Maybe he can finish the season strong. Cmon, it's your last go around!

Edwards - I think it's more of the Swanigan effect, but he is a shell of what he was last year. Not assertive. Not going for his. When he does and is aggressive, he's really effective. When he's more of a role player, it's like he's not even on the court. I think that's also a product of our prodding offense. When he's the 4, he flourishes.

Stephens - I thought he would make a jump in improvement, but he has regressed or stayed the same. Now, he's in Painters dog house.

PJ - I like him. Doesn't make mistakes, but doesn't create opportunities. Not PJ's game or ability, but it would be nice to have a PG that could create opportunities for others through penetration. Not his fault tho. Never expected that from him. He's too short and not quick/long enough to cause problems defensively for opposition. Plays good position D though. He definitely maximizes his potential at the D1 level.

Mathias - I like him. Smart decisions. Decent enough D. Good outside shooter. Doesn't make too many mistakes. What's missing? Don't know. Maybe he needs more consistent time?

Haas - Improved his body, his offensive skill greatly over the summer. His free throws are almost automatic now. However, sometimes it's hard to believe he is 7'2". He probably plays the smallest 7'2". Gets his shots blocked semi regularly and surprising doesn't go up strong when near the rim. Defensively he is a bit of a sieve. That's more a product of his body type and the weight he carries, but if his weight is moving one way/direction, it's like the titanic trying to do a U-turn to go the other way. Smaller big guys just need to shot fake or jab and then have wide openings with little trouble.

Not really going to judge the freshman. I honestly didn't expect much from them. Like both of them. Let's be honest though ... Swanigan is a 4 year player (that's a good thing for Purdue). He has trouble guarding average stretch 4s in college. What would happen in the NBA? He's a hard worker though, but gaining and improving foot speed is probably one of the hardest things to physically do (much easier to gain strength or lose weight than to make big gains in footspeed/quickness). Cline will be good as long as Painter doesn't make him passive and afraid to shoot.

Coach Painter - We have the most deliberate, offensive system ever. It is so hard to watch. There is no triple threat (pass, shoot, dribble) from our perimeter players. I think we are one of the easiest teams to guard in the B1G except for AJ because of it. Stand and wait for the perfect lane to feed the post (and they seem to still miss a lot of passing lanes into the post when bigs have great position). Then stand. Very little movement, dynamics or cutting. Absolutely no dribble penetration or back door cuts. Our guys seem too focused on not making mistakes versus playing with an edge/passion. Too much edge/passion can be reckless, but I'd like to see our guys go for it more. We play too scared to make mistakes.

Due to defensive rule changes and our lack of speed/quickness, we play pretty good team defense and position D. I think our easy non-conference and blowout wins inflated the perceived ceiling of this team. Still think we could be Sweet 16, but that's not a given.

I agree with almost all of your assessment except for Haas. I think Isaac has taken considerable steps forward this year. He almost disappeared at times last year during the B1G season. Now, I have every confidence in handing the position over to him next year.

I think he'll play with more fire than AJ, though perhaps his skill might not be as polished.

 

[cjf04]

Throw out pre-season expectations, throw out our current record, what disappoints me is the lack of energy, the stupid mistakes and the missed opportunities that are evident....every team has weaknesses that can be exploited...those don't matter when teams play Purdue because we consistently beat ourselves.

 

[PU52Chevy]

I am disappointed we did not win Big Ten Conference Title......but not disappointed yet in the season.

I still think we have big things to come.....I think we can finish out strong and win last three regular season games.....win two + games in BTT if not win it all.

Then I think because of our team make up (size at 4 and 5 and leadership of AJ and Davis, we are a tough out in the Big Dance.....

I see us at a minimum winning two games in the Big Dance....and then after that it is luck of the draw.....final 8 sure, final four maybe win it all possibly.....

I think we have a long ride to go...I am behind this team 110%!

Boiler Up!

 

[icewind7]

I don't have time to go through the previously 18 replies. But, IF you want to achieve anything great in life, aim high and dream big. I don't really see the problem of having expectation on this year's team. Pressure and expectation will only make you a greater person, and a better team.

 

[Summy1]

Am I the only one that was hoping for more from Biggie. When he committed to Purdue I was really excited. Part of me expected him to have an unbelievable freshman season. He rebounds good but that is about it.

 

[BOILERBOY]

About where I expected--- Also we WONT finish 8th in the seeding,but it also shows how an inbalanced schedule in the BIG can affect standings -- and while I'm at it, Why does anyone think Ray has "regressed" - hes playing every bit as well as last year and is a casualty of the "casual fan expectation"

 

[cjf04]

About where I expected--- Also we WONT finish 8th in the seeding,but it also shows how an inbalanced schedule in the BIG can affect standings -- and while I'm at it, Why does anyone think Ray has "regressed" - hes playing every bit as well as last year and is a casualty of the "casual fan expectation"

People seem to be focusing on Ray's contributions on offense as one of this year's greatest concerns....

Last year: 31.3 mpg, 10.7ppg, 4.4rpg, 2.6apg on 46% fgp
This year: 29.1 mpg, 8.8ppg, 3.9rpg, 2.0apg on 40% fgp
% DECLINE: 7% mpg, 18% ppg, 11% rpg, 23% apg, 13% fgp

You're right, people's casual observations about Ray seem to be completely unfounded.....

 

[dwhitebash11]

I think this team has performed below expectations, but not by much. As many have said, our 11-0 start in the season had many thinking FF expectations, which are still possible, but those people thought FF expectations meant top 5 teams all year long. That's not the case this year in basketball. The parity is so close, any top25 team can win the NC this year. It all comes down to matchups. If we get a matchup where a team isn't deep in the front court, and their 4-5 man makes less than two 3s per game, then we should be favored. That is our weakness, a 4/5 who brings out our bigs and exploits the middle of the court or knocks down shots from deep.


I had expectations that our team should be hovering around 10-15 ranking all season long. I think we should have won against Iowa at home, Illinois obviously, and @ IU. I'm not too mad about losing against Butler, as we struggle around that time of the year. Losing @ Maryland, @ Iowa, @ Michigan isn't a horrible loss either. The main thing about this team is that we've been in every game this year that we've loss minus @ Illinois. Both Iowa games could have gone our way, @ Maryland we should have won, as well as @ Michigan, Butler we almost made a great comeback, same with @ IU.


Instead, we're top 20, with a chance to solidify my expectations with a win @ home against another top 10 team, Maryland, as well as getting another win against a borderline NCAA tournament team in Wisconsin. If we win out, which we should, we'll be 12-6 in a power conference with 3-top10 teams, and 5-top25 teams. That's not too bad, although we've had some letdowns, all that matters is what happens in March, and this team has a build that can get hot and carry us to a FF run.

 

[FLAG HUNTER]

I have always felt that good teams win the majority of close games.

 

[BoilerBall2015]

If you were to tell me we'd be No. 20 after starting at 24, I would have said we'd meet and exceed expectations. Now, knowing the losses we've had to Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan show we've underachieved some. Absolutely should not have lost to Iowa at home and at Michigan after controlling 36 minutes of the game for the most part.

I think our last 3 games are all very winnable. 24-7 and 12-6 would be about meeting expectations coming into the season IMO.

 

[tjreese]

We have 3 guys who I would say are close to being consistent from the beginning of the year and you pretty much know what you are going to get out of them each game (Hammons/Haas/Biggie). You know Biggie is going to come close to a double/double each game and has lowered his turnover rate...Hammons is effective on both ends as long as he is not in foul trouble, and Haas is generally effective in short spurts. Those guys are the focus of the offense.

Cline has looked more comfortable. PJ basically is used to reverse the ball and hit an occasional 3...nothing more, nothing less. Hill, I guess is used to reverse the ball?

However, the rest of the team have basically regressed from game 1. Vince and Ray are nowhere to be found half of the time. Mathias can barely get off the bench. Stephens doesn't play anymore. PJ is about the same I guess. Hill is not doing much.

College BBALL is all about guard play. Our guards have regressed, our offense has become extremely stagnant because all we do is look to feed the post. Defenses understand this and force us into bad possessions.

Our defense has gotten worse, especially when playing more athletic teams that take advantage of Biggie's perimeter defense.

I personally believe we are seeing that Painter doesn't really have much ability to get creative with talent. He is not putting our 1-4 men in positions to utilize their talents....instead pinning all of our hopes on our 5 men being dominant. We have no driving lanes. We can't defend the perimeter as teams are now realizing they can draw our bigs out on defense and Painter won't adjust (Luckily Olah from NW wasn't hitting 3's or we might have lost at home to them).

The last team that won a NCAA championship in which the focal point of the offense was a true offensive center and didn't have consistent scoring guard play was probably never.

I would say we are all going to look back after this season and realize Painter totally wasted Hammons senior year by creating such a 1-dimensional team and not making adjustments on either end. He is underutilizing our 1-4 men whom need utilized if we are going to have any chance at making a run in the tournament. I'm 100% off the Painter bandwagon and don't blame the players because I don't think Painter has put them in a good position to succeed and use their talents.

Below my expectations..

With the players you have (which is an upgrade from the previous couple of years) what do you want these players to do knowing you have what you have? Do you think it is easy to drive if Haas or AJ is on the court? Since rosters can't be changed, what do you want to see. Why do you want to see that? How do you make it happen? I don't think there is a lot of problems in what you wish, but I'm curious how to do what I "think" you want to see...

 

[mathboy]

With the players you have (which is an upgrade from the previous couple of years) what do you want these players to do knowing you have what you have? Do you think it is easy to drive if Haas or AJ is on the court? Since rosters can't be changed, what do you want to see. Why do you want to see that? How do you make it happen? I don't think there is a lot of problems in what you wish, but I'm curious how to do what I "think" you want to see...

I think you ask a fair question. I don't think you are picking on anybody, but when we suffer a loss, eveybody wantws to examine the reasons and correct them. We all have a wide variety of ideas, and some maight even have merit.

My perspective of a dribble drive offense is not favorable. First, think back to the days of TJ and RJ. That was a dribble drive offense. We were a donut team with few other options. No fun plying that way. Always feeding the post can get boring too.

What is needed is a variety of offensive sets. Sort of a blance of inside and outside plays. Purdue has them, and you will see them executed on occation, like a double screen for Cline or Mathias. Or an inbounds to a cutter. We need to do more of those, and not just after we find the post feed is blocked. I think what people find discouraging is the predominance of post feeds. We need to run a wider variety of plays, right from the start of the possession. It will stop our opponents from cheating in their post defense if we are successful. Just my 2 cents.

 

[plaxico80]

Just my opinion, as an IU fan, but Octeus made everybody better and his loss has been something Purdue simply hasn't been able to overcome. Put him on this team and it's Final 4 worthy.

Without him adequately being replaced, your guard play just isn't good enough. Your frontcourt is ridiculously deep and talented, but the backcourt just doesn't measure up.

 

[gr8indoorsman]

The season isn't over yet. Most prognosticators had us high teens/low 20s. A few thought we were a darkhorse FF team, which we could still be even as unlikely as it seems now... it was always unlikely.

I guess the answer depends on the question: whose expectations?

 

[Casey and his Brother]

At expectations. One win in the tourney without a true B1G caliber PG is all you can ask for. If they make the Sweet 16, they will have won a Purdue National Title and have surpassed expectations, and Burke will announce he's staying for another ten years.

 

[since1980]

With the players you have (which is an upgrade from the previous couple of years) what do you want these players to do knowing you have what you have? Do you think it is easy to drive if Haas or AJ is on the court? Since rosters can't be changed, what do you want to see. Why do you want to see that? How do you make it happen? I don't think there is a lot of problems in what you wish, but I'm curious how to do what I "think" you want to see...

Reese, No..it is not easy to drive when Haas/Hammons are on the block. That is my point. I'm just saying we need more variety to get everyone involved...put people in better situations to succeed. I absolutely think we can have a set in which Hammons is not on the block every single time down. Haas, that is a different story...he has a huge advantage so he needs to stay down there. Our advantage is our Bigs and I think our current traditional inside out offense is ok 75% of the time. However that offense forces the other 4 guys to be statues on the perimeter without a driving lane.

Five-high sets with a screener at the free throw line...sorta like Bo Ryan's swing offense...allowing someone like Vince or Biggie to cut and post up on a smaller guy...or Hill to simply come off a high ball screen and beat people to the rim. Hammons has to be guarded now 17 feet out or he is going to hit a jumper. Simple 2 man ball screen games on one side of the court with screening decoy on the other side clearing out the lane. Hammons is capable of catching on the run now, so he is a viable pick and roll option.

We simply just need better spacing so that our guards/wings have a chance to do something. Priority #1 offensively the first 5 minutes of every game should be running a play for Vince and Ray to make an aggressive drive. Getting them in attack mode early in the game makes our offense so much better.

 

[Summy1]

I agree that the lack of guard play is hurting Purdue. Our pg will get us some points but cant be relied on. I am looking forward to having Edwards next season as he is known as a scoring pg. Too bad he wasn't here this season.

 

[Schnelk]

Next season? Let's get this fixed now. We need some guys to step up the intensity, especially on D. And I am all for running more set plays, anything except forcing it into the post each time. It's time to start playing with a sense of urgency. We should be better than this. Alot better.

 

[tjreese]

I think you ask a fair question. I don't think you are picking on anybody, but when we suffer a loss, eveybody wantws to examine the reasons and correct them. We all have a wide variety of ideas, and some maight even have merit.

My perspective of a dribble drive offense is not favorable. First, think back to the days of TJ and RJ. That was a dribble drive offense. We were a donut team with few other options. No fun plying that way. Always feeding the post can get boring too.

What is needed is a variety of offensive sets. Sort of a blance of inside and outside plays. Purdue has them, and you will see them executed on occation, like a double screen for Cline or Mathias. Or an inbounds to a cutter. We need to do more of those, and not just after we find the post feed is blocked. I think what people find discouraging is the predominance of post feeds. We need to run a wider variety of plays, right from the start of the possession. It will stop our opponents from cheating in their post defense if we are successful. Just my 2 cents.

I think everyone wants balance. When you have a solid 5 as a low post (Haas) and mostly AJ, there is someone always in the lane becasue they are not known as a threat out. That hurts driving. If a player is less effective driving teh ball, hyou can expect a lot more switches and hedges due to no worry about getting to the basket undefended. Combine tht with a liitle slower foot speed and executions is tougher. Next year there will be times when Haas is not playing

Reese, No..it is not easy to drive when Haas/Hammons are on the block. That is my point. I'm just saying we need more variety to get everyone involved...put people in better situations to succeed. I absolutely think we can have a set in which Hammons is not on the block every single time down. Haas, that is a different story...he has a huge advantage so he needs to stay down there. Our advantage is our Bigs and I think our current traditional inside out offense is ok 75% of the time. However that offense forces the other 4 guys to be statues on the perimeter without a driving lane.

Five-high sets with a screener at the free throw line...sorta like Bo Ryan's swing offense...allowing someone like Vince or Biggie to cut and post up on a smaller guy...or Hill to simply come off a high ball screen and beat people to the rim. Hammons has to be guarded now 17 feet out or he is going to hit a jumper. Simple 2 man ball screen games on one side of the court with screening decoy on the other side clearing out the lane. Hammons is capable of catching on the run now, so he is a viable pick and roll option.

We simply just need better spacing so that our guards/wings have a chance to do something. Priority #1 offensively the first 5 minutes of every game should be running a play for Vince and Ray to make an aggressive drive. Getting them in attack mode early in the game makes our offense so much better.

I understand that and I know you understand the defense can defend you how "they" want, not what you want. Who is afraid of Hill shooting? who is afraid of AJ and Haas outside instead of inside? Vince can do it all, but he has a slow release and needs a little time on his jumper...I'm sure that is in the scouting report. Is Davis deadly from the outside other than when playing MSU? I'm sure they know he is a slop driver who uses his body better in the open court. PJ needs room to get his shot off and not very good driving. I don't disagree with your desires, just that a high offensive set may not bring the D out high unless it was to contend a deadly shooter on Purdue ...which is? No question that Purdue bigs can do more than just go from block to block, but there are limitations in this team like some others and that is why they are capable of beating some good teams and getting beat by some not as good. If I'm coaching ...AJ shoot the 17 foot shot until you convince me you are more deadly outside than inside and then maybe I'll contend harder on you on the perimeter. There definitely can be more two men games and three man games or power triangles...always been there. However, I think I've only seen maybe one or two total clearouts for driving...

Purdue is hurt much more by the rules than I think most imagine. The rules are to help the "offensive" perimeter players, not the inside players...even to the point of almost eliminating offensive fouls on those players allowing them to push off, travel and having an arc out so people can't play as much team D to stop the drives. The rules hurt Purdue more now than when AJ was a freshman. If Purdue gets into a few weeks where they are stroking it people will again think Purdue has all the tools to go far, but as long as there are turnovers and Purdue is not blazing the nets from the 3 Purdue will probably see a lot of the same things.

Next years team will be capable of doing a lot of what you wish...when Haas is resting...

 

[since1980]

I think we have plenty of talent and the proper role players.

The 1 guy I think Painter needs to use differently and more is Johny Hill. The dude can get to the rim and finish...yet we rarely see him do anything except swing the ball to the opposite side. He can be dynamic if we cleared out the lane more often with our bigs.



We need more sets with Hammons not being on the block.


Look at Ray when he catches and our 5 man is not standing on the block in his way.


Combine this with shooters spotting up when defenses collapse on drivers can make our offense much more dynamic.

 

[tjreese]

Next season? Let's get this fixed now. We need some guys to step up the intensity, especially on D. And I am all for running more set plays, anything except forcing it into the post each time. It's time to start playing with a sense of urgency. We should be better than this. Alot better.

No question D, urgency and effort can be improved with the players there now and THAT would make a huge difference...

 

[boilerbusdriver]

A ton of awesome and spot-on posts, underachieved......Can't lose to IL and Michigan, throw Butler in there too....Gotta come out rockin' Saturday, get Big MO' on our side and run the table going into the B1T Tourny....
GIT ER DONE AND BOILER UP!!!!