Below Expectations or Expectations too high?

[tjreese]

I think we have plenty of talent and the proper role players.

The 1 guy I think Painter needs to use differently and more is Johny Hill. The dude can get to the rim and finish...yet we rarely see him do anything except swing the ball to the opposite side. He can be dynamic if we cleared out the lane more often with our bigs.

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We need more sets with Hammons not being on the block.

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Look at Ray when he catches and our 5 man is not standing on the block in his way.

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Combine this with shooters spotting up when defenses collapse on drivers can make our offense much more dynamic.

Would you guard Hill on the perimeter that would allow a drive...unless teh strategy was to pressure entry passes? Who would guard Hill...I wouldn't. Is there any team and any game where the same effort is put into guarding each player on the opposing team? In the Vince Dunk you will see Uthoff watching Kendall I'm sure that was in the scouting report and Kendall keeping him a little wider until Kendall also pulls him up a little. however, the key was AJ. If you notice AJ and every person teaches subtle things within the rules to make screens more effective. Here AJ steps out to set another screen (we can do the same thing on a ball screen with front of the screener and then reverse pivot whatever direction the D goes to appear to pop out or roll to the bucket as though that was a legitimate part of the offense, but it is a "secondary screen". here AJ screens, steps if front of Getsell again and passes to Vince heading to the bucket since getsell gets caught behind after the brush. I think Hill at times is VERY good getting to the rim and probably needs to exploit that some when teh D is not totally set or he has the step to make it. Because of that and his length I thought he might pass over PJ during the season, but his turnover hold him back.

I've been on record in a few forums saying I prefer 2 6'9" fours instead of a traditional 5 just to increase the things a person could do on O. Purdue doesn't have that this year and so how much do you mold around the inside is your question. I am not disagreeing with you on how much better the offense could be if all those things went on every game. Do you think the coaches...all of them don't wish they could do more of this. Imagine if Kendall could stroke it like most thought he might be his junior year after his freshman year and then added an in between game with his size...THAT alone would improve Purdue immensely with all the other things remaining the same. I really like AJ's step out to hold Getsell though...great move he made...

 

[cprh9u]

People seem to be focusing on Ray's contributions on offense as one of this year's greatest concerns....

Last year: 31.3 mpg, 10.7ppg, 4.4rpg, 2.6apg on 46% fgp
This year: 29.1 mpg, 8.8ppg, 3.9rpg, 2.0apg on 40% fgp
% DECLINE: 7% mpg, 18% ppg, 11% rpg, 23% apg, 13% fgp

You're right, people's casual observations about Ray seem to be completely unfounded.....

Harder to quantify, but I think his D has slipped a lot. DPOY last year, and shouldn't even be on the radar this year.

 

[Lionheart1]

For me the start of the season raised expectations too high based on what I initially thought were potential weaknesses (hammons not locked in every game, point guard, inconsistent outside shooting). The butler loss made me wonder but then winning after that again allowed emotion to over-rule rational thought. With the losses to illinois, michigan, the melltdown vs iowa, coming out flat at iu, et al, rationality now rules and expectations are not out of control.

 

[tjreese]

I think we have plenty of talent and the proper role players.

The 1 guy I think Painter needs to use differently and more is Johny Hill. The dude can get to the rim and finish...yet we rarely see him do anything except swing the ball to the opposite side. He can be dynamic if we cleared out the lane more often with our bigs.

View embedded media

View embedded media

We need more sets with Hammons not being on the block.

View embedded media

Look at Ray when he catches and our 5 man is not standing on the block in his way.

View embedded media

Combine this with shooters spotting up when defenses collapse on drivers can make our offense much more dynamic.

You haven't said it, but I'm wondering if your thoughts would be enhanced by supplementing "motion" with a few set plays or even another continuity offense. Gene essentially did that and I do think that in theory motion or a read defense with a few rules and such is best in that it allows ultimate freedom depending on what the D allows. THAT said "motion" will not work nearly as effective when the players are on different pages and a continuity offense or a few sets an sometime fill that funk when the offense has its dry moments. I do believe that the deficiencies of players can be hidden a little more with another continuity offense to add to motion when it hits its dry spells primarily to bring continuity of players in positions that know the next move of players. In other words a few "scoutable" but scripted sets, quick hitters or just another continuity offense to supplement those dry spots. Now that I do think could enhance play rather than everyone reading the D and trying to take advantage.

IN motion player tendencies rather than "scoutable" moves due to the unscripted nature make it hard to defend when everyone is on the same page, but when they are not on the same page sometimes a play or set that is also scouted puts everyone on the same page...be it a swing version, triangle offense or for us old timers...flex...

 

[tjreese]

Harder to quantify, but I think his D has slipped a lot. DPOY last year, and shouldn't even be on the radar this year.

I don't think his D is close to where it was when Purdue made its run. We really don't know the effects if any of his injury. On O I think people just expected his senior year more of a breakout and in that regard it wasn't. I think most thought the team would be better and Davis would benefit from that

 

[nagemj02]

I think this team has performed below expectations, but not by much. As many have said, our 11-0 start in the season had many thinking FF expectations, which are still possible, but those people thought FF expectations meant top 5 teams all year long. That's not the case this year in basketball. The parity is so close, any top25 team can win the NC this year. It all comes down to matchups. If we get a matchup where a team isn't deep in the front court, and their 4-5 man makes less than two 3s per game, then we should be favored. That is our weakness, a 4/5 who brings out our bigs and exploits the middle of the court or knocks down shots from deep.


I had expectations that our team should be hovering around 10-15 ranking all season long. I think we should have won against Iowa at home, Illinois obviously, and @ IU. I'm not too mad about losing against Butler, as we struggle around that time of the year. Losing @ Maryland, @ Iowa, @ Michigan isn't a horrible loss either. The main thing about this team is that we've been in every game this year that we've loss minus @ Illinois. Both Iowa games could have gone our way, @ Maryland we should have won, as well as @ Michigan, Butler we almost made a great comeback, same with @ IU.


Instead, we're top 20, with a chance to solidify my expectations with a win @ home against another top 10 team, Maryland, as well as getting another win against a borderline NCAA tournament team in Wisconsin. If we win out, which we should, we'll be 12-6 in a power conference with 3-top10 teams, and 5-top25 teams. That's not too bad, although we've had some letdowns, all that matters is what happens in March, and this team has a build that can get hot and carry us to a FF run.

....and coaching. 1. matchups 2. coaching strategies/in-game coaching 3. defensive effectiveness 4. scoring and assist production from the guards and wings

Most of those keys are tied together.

 

[since1980]

Would you guard Hill on the perimeter that would allow a drive...unless teh strategy was to pressure entry passes? Who would guard Hill...I wouldn't. Is there any team and any game where the same effort is put into guarding each player on the opposing team? In the Vince Dunk you will see Uthoff watching Kendall I'm sure that was in the scouting report and Kendall keeping him a little wider until Kendall also pulls him up a little. however, the key was AJ. If you notice AJ and every person teaches subtle things within the rules to make screens more effective. Here AJ steps out to set another screen (we can do the same thing on a ball screen with front of the screener and then reverse pivot whatever direction the D goes to appear to pop out or roll to the bucket as though that was a legitimate part of the offense, but it is a "secondary screen". here AJ screens, steps if front of Getsell again and passes to Vince heading to the bucket since getsell gets caught behind after the brush. I think Hill at times is VERY good getting to the rim and probably needs to exploit that some when teh D is not totally set or he has the step to make it. Because of that and his length I thought he might pass over PJ during the season, but his turnover hold him back.

I've been on record in a few forums saying I prefer 2 6'9" fours instead of a traditional 5 just to increase the things a person could do on O. Purdue doesn't have that this year and so how much do you mold around the inside is your question. I am not disagreeing with you on how much better the offense could be if all those things went on every game. Do you think the coaches...all of them don't wish they could do more of this. Imagine if Kendall could stroke it like most thought he might be his junior year after his freshman year and then added an in between game with his size...THAT alone would improve Purdue immensely with all the other things remaining the same. I really like AJ's step out to hold Getsell though...great move he made...

I agree with the two 6'9" guys or at least your 1-4 being more versatile.

The question about who would actually hug Hill on the perimeter is a good one and good point. However, I think Painter creates this problem for Purdue by being so conservative from day 1. Basketball players are very reactionary by nature...jumping up at shot fakes and so forth. I realize Johny Hill is not a good shooter from 3, but I guarantee if Painter instilled confidence that he had a green light if open and within rythym, that he would be no worse of a shooter at 19 feet than Biggie and would probably hover around the 30% range. That means we don't want him shooting 3's very often, but just by him actually attempting the wide open 3's with confidence, defenders will be forced to actually guard him out there.

Painter coaches very passively in that regard and makes it easy on defenses to double our big guys.

 

[boilerzz]

I think we have plenty of talent and the proper role players.

The 1 guy I think Painter needs to use differently and more is Johny Hill. The dude can get to the rim and finish...yet we rarely see him do anything except swing the ball to the opposite side. He can be dynamic if we cleared out the lane more often with our bigs.

Combine this with shooters spotting up when defenses collapse on drivers can make our offense much more dynamic.

Maybe, but when Johnny Hill shoots 6 or more shots in a game, he's shooting 31%. When he shoots 5 or less, he is shooting 64%. He's most productive as a low volume opportunistic shooter.

 

[since1980]

Maybe, but when Johnny Hill shoots 6 or more shots in a game, he's shooting 31%. When he shoots 5 or less, he is shooting 64%. He's most productive as a low volume opportunistic shooter.

I mean, he's only had 4 games where he has taken 6 shots or more...and 3 of those games he took 6 shots...the other he took 11 against NW and scored 15 because he got to the free throw line for 8 attempts. I'm not saying he needs more shots...just saying he is very capable of getting to the rim and hitting free throws, which I think Painter could use him to be more aggressive attacking which only serves to open things up for others as well. When any of our guards attack the paint, it's going to collapse defenses and allow our shooters better looks on the perimeter. I prefer Ryan Cline shooting open jumpers than fadeaway's with a hand in his face. When we had the Johnson's attacking the paint constantly, it wasn't as effective because they couldn't hit free throws and we didn't have shooters or big men to rebound effectively.

Both Hill and PJ are good free throw shooters, both over 80%. Vince (81%) and Ray (72%) are not bad either, so I think we need to get them attacking more and get to the line for free points.

 

[Dryfly88]

Is there a rule that says AJ or Haas have to be on the floor for 40 minutes??

Go small for a few minute stretches and it opens up a whole different set of opportunities.

 

[tjreese]

I mean, he's only had 4 games where he has taken 6 shots or more...and 3 of those games he took 6 shots...the other he took 11 against NW and scored 15 because he got to the free throw line for 8 attempts. I'm not saying he needs more shots...just saying he is very capable of getting to the rim and hitting free throws, which I think Painter could use him to be more aggressive attacking which only serves to open things up for others as well. When any of our guards attack the paint, it's going to collapse defenses and allow our shooters better looks on the perimeter. I prefer Ryan Cline shooting open jumpers than fadeaway's with a hand in his face. When we had the Johnson's attacking the paint constantly, it wasn't as effective because they couldn't hit free throws and we didn't have shooters or big men to rebound effectively.

Both Hill and PJ are good free throw shooters, both over 80%. Vince (81%) and Ray (72%) are not bad either, so I think we need to get them attacking more and get to the line for free points.

On the whole I think Purdue can and should attack more