B1G Isn't Good For PU This Year

[Dryfly88]

Good discussion with Tyler Hansbrough and Randolph Childress about PU and Edey specifically.

I thought Tyler's comment about his only worry for PU is they play in the B1G was interesting. It is something many of us on here have shared as a concern also. How there is very little variety in the conference and it is poor preparation for March.

 

[BoilerAndy]

Some old-timers may remember several years ago the B10 was experiencing a drought in NCAA tournament success, and both fans and coaches were pointing to the league referees dictating a type of play that did not prepare the teams for the tournament. The lost revenue forced the league to act, and they hired a former coach, Rich Falk of NW, to be Supervisor of Officials. He whipped the refs into shape and over the next few years, 4 different B10 teams played in the FF.

I think about this every time there is discussion here about B1G basketball being like a rugby match. And I look at how poorly the league performs in the NCAA tournament. Corellation or causation?

 

[BoilerDaddy]

I don’t buy that the style of play hurt Purdue in the last two NCAAs. Northwestern did the same thing to Purdue that FDU did. Purdue is fine in the wide open games. It is the games where Edey is getting fouled on every play and they aren’t getting called that Purdue needs to overcome.

 

[titaniumbolt]

B10 is going to screw us this year, the league is the weakest it's been in years

 

[Chi-Boiler]

B10 is going to screw us this year, the league is the weakest it's been in years

The B1G can't screw us. Our NC SOS and performance will offset whatever the league doesn't help with. It's like a flip from years ago when the conference was outstanding and we didn't need more than 2 or 3 good NC games.

We have to be better prepared to win in March. It's all on Purdue, no one else.

 

[Boiler Buck]

We have to be better prepared to win in March. It's all on Purdue, no one else.

Wouldn't surprise me if we have not played 3-4 E8 teams or close to it....by years end. If that doesn't prepare you, what will?

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

The B1G can't screw us. Our NC SOS and performance will offset whatever the league doesn't help with. It's like a flip from years ago when the conference was outstanding and we didn't need more than 2 or 3 good NC games.

We have to be better prepared to win in March. It's all on Purdue, no one else.

I think your last sentence is what titanium means by the B1G not helping us. We aren’t going to be prepared like other conferences because the B1G is so bad and so slow, that we will get sucked down to that level of play and not be ready how we should be for the tourney.

How can we schedule non conference games during the middle of the conference season!?!?! Arizona will have bad teams too, maybe they’ll be up to run it back a few times to get ready for March 😂 😂

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Wouldn't surprise me if we have not played 3-4 E8 teams or close to it....by years end. If that doesn't prepare you, what will?

Just that the whatever remaining B1G games we have may throw us off by not playing the style of other conferences and throw us off our game, I guess?

 

[Boiler Buck]

Just that the whatever remaining B1G games we have may throw us off by not playing the style of other conferences and throw us off our game, I guess?

Other than IL and maybe Michigan 2 teams playing above their curve....that is prob true.

 

[KentuckyBoiler]

If we play our game, and knock down our shots, I don't care how the other BT teams play this year or the teams in the tournament. We need to control what we can control.

 

[BoilerAndy]

B10 is going to screw us this year, the league is the weakest it's been in years

They talked about this on the B1G Network. It's possible the league is improving. The B1G is considered weak by historical standards and the Big 12 is considered by many to be the strongest conference. Lowly IU barely lost to Kansas, MSU destroyed Baylor, and Nebraska beat Kansas St by double digits.

There is too much talent in the B1G for them to be counted out.

 

[Boiler Buck]

They talked about this on the B1G Network. It's possible the league is improving. The B1G is considered weak by historical standards and the Big 12 is considered by many to be the strongest conference. Lowly IU barely lost to Kansas, MSU destroyed Baylor, and Nebraska beat Kansas St by double digits.

There is too much talent in the B1G for them to be counted out.

I would say the Big East is the strongest conference.

As far as the conference not prepping us, there might be some merit there. But Gonzaga has done well in the ncaat and they have one of the weakest conferences in America.

 

[BoilerAndy]

I would say the Big East is the strongest conference.

As far as the conference not prepping us, there might be some merit there. But Gonzaga has done well in the ncaat and they have one of the weakest conferences in America.

The Big Ten and Big East split their 8 games head-to-head in the Gavin Games.

Good point about Gonzaga. And Florida Atlantic and San Diego State were in the FF last year, representing weaker conferences.

 

[Roeder]

It depends...If by March Purdue is winning their games in 62-60 ugly slugfests, and losing 5-6 games in the conference that way, then yes it's a bad sign there's been some regression.

It's also a great chance to slay some demons and embrace being the hunted, and play with the swagger of being #1. Yes there will be tough games, but if this team plays like they think they are the best, they will be ready for March regardless of how good the B1G is.

I loved Painters pregame speech against Arizona, saying something to the effect of " let's run these guys". If they can have that mentality against arguably the most talented team in the nation, there is no reason why they can't roll into College Park on a cold night in January and thump them by 20. If this team gets there consistently mentally the sky is the limit.

 

[Smokestack91]

Other than IL and maybe Michigan 2 teams playing above their curve....that is prob true.

IL is good(e). I know Purdue and Zach are rolling, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities that they win the B1G and/or Shannon Jr. is MVP. Don't play much with a true point guard or center, though.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

IL is good(e). I know Purdue and Zach are rolling, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities that they win the B1G and/or Shannon Jr. is MVP. Don't play much with a true point guard or center, though.

TSJ is very good and going to be tough to stop. Wonder how we will try to stop him and Domask from going off at the same time. Will be a good one!

 

[boilerzz]

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's
expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference	Rating	Conference	Rating
1	Big 12 Conference	+16.93	18	Big South Conference	-3.82
2	Big Ten Conference	+14.95	19	Coastal Athletic Association	-4.16
3	Southeastern Conference	+14.56	20	Big Sky Conference	-4.61
4	Big East Conference	+14.38	21	Mid American Conference	-4.73
5	Atlantic Coast Conference	+11.46	22	Horizon League	-5.30
6	Pac 12 Conference	+11.41	23	Summit League	-5.37
7	Mountain West Conference	+8.94	24	America East Conference	-5.63
8	Atlantic 10 Conference	+4.19	25	ASUN Conference	-6.54
9	American Athletic Conference	+3.52	26	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference	-6.93
10	West Coast Conference	+2.74	27	Ohio Valley Conference	-10.70
11	Missouri Valley Conference	+2.48	28	Southland Conference	-10.70
12	Conference USA	-0.76	29	Patriot League	-11.83
13	Ivy League	-0.83	30	Independents	-12.40
14	Western Athletic Conference	-1.05	31	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference	-13.33
15	Big West Conference	-1.75	32	Southwestern Athletic Conference	-13.55
16	Southern Conference	-1.85	33	Northeast Conference	-14.14
17	Sun Belt Conference	-2.68

 

[BoilerDaddy]

It was a good night for the Big Ten last night. I think that the conference is far better than it gets credit for. Several of the teams stumbled out of the gate this year, but I’ve seen a lot of quality wins since.

I think that Illinois is very good and is my pick for #2 in the conference at this point. They look like a top 10 team to me. I think that MSU has turned the corner and is right behind Illinois. Wisconsin and Ohio State are very good teams as well.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

It was a good night for the Big Ten last night. I think that the conference is far better than it gets credit for. Several of the teams stumbled out of the gate this year, but I’ve seen a lot of quality wins since.

I think that Illinois is very good and is my pick for #2 in the conference at this point. They look like a top 10 team to me. I think that MSU has turned the corner and is right behind Illinois. Wisconsin and Ohio State are very good teams as well.

The teams must have heard me (and others complaining) 😂. I do think it’s not AS bad as some say, but I think my worry is that once we get to B1G play, it’ll fall into the trap of just slowed down, no foul calls, in the high 60s/low 70s type of games. Hopefully I’m wrong!

 

[BoilerDaddy]

The teams must have heard me (and others complaining) 😂. I do think it’s not AS bad as some say, but I think my worry is that once we get to B1G play, it’ll fall into the trap of just slowed down, no foul calls, in the high 60s/low 70s type of games. Hopefully I’m wrong!

Interestingly enough, Purdue’s two Big Ten games thus far have come against the slowest and fastest tempo teams in the league. I am convinced that this Purdue team is more comfortable against fast tempo teams and needs more work against slow tempo teams.

 

[goboilers2]

The B1G can't screw us. Our NC SOS and performance will offset whatever the league doesn't help with. It's like a flip from years ago when the conference was outstanding and we didn't need more than 2 or 3 good NC games.

We have to be better prepared to win in March. It's all on Purdue, no one else.

We did quite well in the SOS early on. You are 100% correct that the B1G isnt going to screw us. Some fans need to freaking chill and enjoy the game.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Illini fan take, but I personally think the Big Ten is just due to surprise in March and that sometimes you just have bad luck. Before 2021’s epic collapse by conference in the NCAAs, we had just done quite well in March Madness. I don’t think there is a rhyme or reason to the lack of success in March - which really only describes two of the last three Tournaments. If you replay the games again, does Purdue beat FDU and go on a run? Does 2021 Illinois survive Loyola and go on a run? 2021 OSU? Etc.

Here’s to hoping the Big Ten can put together some runs this year to prove the haters wrong!

 

[BoilerAndy]

The teams must have heard me (and others complaining) 😂. I do think it’s not AS bad as some say, but I think my worry is that once we get to B1G play, it’ll fall into the trap of just slowed down, no foul calls, in the high 60s/low 70s type of games. Hopefully I’m wrong!

Rumors of the B1G's death may be a bit premature.

 

[Dryfly88]

Rumors of the B1G's death may be a bit premature.

Since 2000

Champs:

ACC - 9
Big East - 7
SEC - 3
B12 - 3
B1G - 0

It's not a rumor.

Serious question: Besides PU, who has a legit chance to win a championship from the B1G this year? While a couple of the teams look good who do you really see winning it all? I say none of them.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Since 2000

Champs:

ACC - 9
Big East - 7
SEC - 3
B12 - 3
B1G - 0

It's not a rumor.

Serious question: Besides PU, who has a legit chance to win a championship from the B1G this year? While a couple of the teams look good who do you really see winning it all? I say none of them.

Unless you have said the Big Ten is “dead” every single season since 2001 - during which time we’ve had SIX programs reach the title game - then you’re not making the point you think you are.

ONE team cuts down the nets each season. Saying the Big Ten is “bad” and acknowledging our teams have too often come up one game short of a championship is NOT the same thing.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Since 2000

Champs:

ACC - 9
Big East - 7
SEC - 3
B12 - 3
B1G - 0

It's not a rumor.

Serious question: Besides PU, who has a legit chance to win a championship from the B1G this year? While a couple of the teams look good who do you really see winning it all? I say none of them.

I’d say other than Purdue, I’d say Illinois has the team dynamics that could do it with TSJ, domask and Hawkins. Although, Hawkins would need to play within his limits instead of jacking up 30 footers and dribbling too much. For March, TSJ and Domask could carry them to the E8 by shooting lights out.

Not saying they will, just saying that’d be the only other team, at this point, that I could see making noise.

 

[Dryfly88]

Unless you have said the Big Ten is “dead” every single season since 2001 - during which time we’ve had SIX programs reach the title game - then you’re not making the point you think you are.

ONE team cuts down the nets each season. Saying the Big Ten is “bad” and acknowledging our teams have too often come up one game short of a championship is NOT the same thing.

You don't come here unless we are talking about Illinois. I have been VERY consistent in saying the B1G is not a good preparation for the dance. I don't believe this year will be any different. We will see very few presses, zones or teams that get up and down the court. Instead we will have rock fights that not only beat your teams up, but they give you little preparation for what we will see in March. I don't believe it's a coincidence we haven't had a champ since 2000.

I'm not alone and Hansbrough was making the same point. He thought that Purdue's biggest obstacle is the conference we play in.

 

[BoilerAndy]

Since 2000

Champs:

ACC - 9
Big East - 7
SEC - 3
B12 - 3
B1G - 0

It's not a rumor.

Serious question: Besides PU, who has a legit chance to win a championship from the B1G this year? While a couple of the teams look good who do you really see winning it all? I say none of them.

I don't believe this is a serious question. The topic was the 2023-24 season. Why are you bringing seasons dating back to 2000 to prove the strength (weakness, in your mind) of the B1G this year? By your standards, counting FFs, do you believe Conference USA, Colonial, Horizon, Missouri Valley, American, Mountain West, and West Coast are all better conferences than the B1G this year?

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Since 2000

Champs:

ACC - 9
Big East - 7
SEC - 3
B12 - 3
B1G - 0

It's not a rumor.

Serious question: Besides PU, who has a legit chance to win a championship from the B1G this year? While a couple of the teams look good who do you really see winning it all? I say none of them.

Illinois and MSU are definitely long shots, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that one of them could win it.

 

[tjreese]

Just that the whatever remaining B1G games we have may throw us off by not playing the style of other conferences and throw us off our game, I guess?

The other conferences that play a different style…could the big style cause them problems or is it only problems for Big Teams to face other styles? If true wouldn’t it make sense for Big teams to change their style? Perhaps the other conference styles are ref’s different even if some of those refs are in the big?

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

The other conferences that play a different style…could the big style cause them problems or is it only problems for Big Teams to face other styles? If true wouldn’t it make sense for Big teams to change their style? Perhaps the other conference styles are ref’s different even if some of those refs are in the big?

Well tournament shows that B1G style doesn’t win it. Sometimes we will have a team in the NC…but I wonder how competitive the league was when that happened. From what we’ve seen so far, the B1G doesn’t look that great outside of 5-6 teams…hopefully it’ll surprise me and keep us sharp for the tourney. There’s always an exception and hope Purdue is that this year.

 

[BoilerAndy]

The other conferences that play a different style…could the big style cause them problems or is it only problems for Big Teams to face other styles? If true wouldn’t it make sense for Big teams to change their style? Perhaps the other conference styles are ref’s different even if some of those refs are in the big?

2-way street. If the refs "let 'em play", and other conferences don't play physical, it may favor the B1G.

 

[BoilerAndy]

Well tournament shows that B1G style doesn’t win it. Sometimes we will have a team in the NC…but I wonder how competitive the league was when that happened. From what we’ve seen so far, the B1G doesn’t look that great outside of 5-6 teams…hopefully it’ll surprise me and keep us sharp for the tourney. There’s always an exception and hope Purdue is that this year.

But how many contenders did the American, Mountain West, and Conference USA conferences have when they had teams in the FF the past 3 years? Did they all have more than 6 great teams?

 

[tjreese]

Well tournament shows that B1G style doesn’t win it. Sometimes we will have a team in the NC…but I wonder how competitive the league was when that happened. From what we’ve seen so far, the B1G doesn’t look that great outside of 5-6 teams…hopefully it’ll surprise me and keep us sharp for the tourney. There’s always an exception and hope Purdue is that this year.

there are all kinds of reasons why the Big hasn't won it, but unsure how you jump to "style" as the reason? My point or the point I attempted to make was if it was "style" being different, why wouldn't the Big style being different cause problems for the conferences that have a "different" style. I mean if it is "style" that differentiates the two teams playing, shouldn't the unusual style to each respective conference cause problems or does a different style only cause problems for the Big Teams?

If "style" is the issue, why is it in preconference that the Big has little trouble with "style" early in the season? There is no "style" in other conferences that most high school players in Indiana have not seen many times. I can't logically conclude that "style" is a key, but for only two weeks in March. Does that make sense? Style is not important until the last couple of weeks in the tourney? If it does make sense or actually happens, how is that explained...what happened?

I'm much more prone to seeing a different whistle that favors athletes over skill. A whistle that allows more slapping and jumping over backs and that can't keep up with the quicker, more athletic player. Most the refs in D1 probably ref a lot of games where the 5s are 6'8"/6'9" and the 4s maybe 6'5"/6'6". I also think the long season in the Big where you can't take a night off wears on players...the constant physical grind. Every game is tough and so players don't get the same play time for development as conferences that have more weak links. I think having some easier games during the season helps players keep fresh and develop keeping fresh not only physically, but mentally as well, and then can focus for the really important games that are going to be tough. Sometimes I listen to some players from other conferences and it appears academics may also be in play. Course that subsides a bit when I hear Boo Buie talk. Lot of reasons why different teams can get beat before winning 6 games in the tourney and most of those teams (67) have different styles from other teams. Were the 67 teams all the wrong style?

 

[tjreese]

2-way street. If the refs "let 'em play", and other conferences don't play physical, it may favor the B1G.

There are different physical play whistles. Some can favor Bigs and others can favor quickness... IMO

 

[BoilerAndy]

There are different physical play whistles. Some can favor Bigs and others can favor quickness... IMO

It is my understanding that the refs are promoted to the next round based on their performance reffing their current round. How much does what they call in a game depend on their perception of what the ref selection team wants to see? In other words, if the people who select the refs for the next round don't want the game interrupted by a large number of foul calls, I would assume the refs are going to not call a lot of fouls. On the other hand, if the perception is that the ref selection team wants to see the refs in control and that it's good basketball rather than rugby...

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

But how many contenders did the American, Mountain West, and Conference USA conferences have when they had teams in the FF the past 3 years? Did they all have more than 6 great teams?

No. There’s always some luck to it and it was the First time mountain west ever made a F4, 2nd time for American and 3rd for conf USA. You’re certainly right and I hope you are right that you don’t need tons of good teams...and when I say doesn’t look great outside of 5-6 teams, I’d say there’s only 2 worth a damn at this point… Going on year 4 of no B1G in F4 and I hope we are the ones there this year. I hope we go through the B1G and understand how to deal with a target on our backs and understand we are going to get everyone’s best every game and we can’t come out flat or if we do, find a way to win. Eventually, we will break through and hopefully it’s this year, but it’s hard to not be a bit skeptical/anxious as a Purdue fan 😂

 

[Hausta01]

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's
expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference	Rating	Conference	Rating
1	Big 12 Conference	+16.93	18	Big South Conference	-3.82
2	Big Ten Conference	+14.95	19	Coastal Athletic Association	-4.16
3	Southeastern Conference	+14.56	20	Big Sky Conference	-4.61
4	Big East Conference	+14.38	21	Mid American Conference	-4.73
5	Atlantic Coast Conference	+11.46	22	Horizon League	-5.30
6	Pac 12 Conference	+11.41	23	Summit League	-5.37
7	Mountain West Conference	+8.94	24	America East Conference	-5.63
8	Atlantic 10 Conference	+4.19	25	ASUN Conference	-6.54
9	American Athletic Conference	+3.52	26	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference	-6.93
10	West Coast Conference	+2.74	27	Ohio Valley Conference	-10.70
11	Missouri Valley Conference	+2.48	28	Southland Conference	-10.70
12	Conference USA	-0.76	29	Patriot League	-11.83
13	Ivy League	-0.83	30	Independents	-12.40
14	Western Athletic Conference	-1.05	31	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference	-13.33
15	Big West Conference	-1.75	32	Southwestern Athletic Conference	-13.55
16	Southern Conference	-1.85	33	Northeast Conference	-14.14
17	Sun Belt Conference	-2.68

Was messing around with Bart Torvik's site and if you look at just Q1/Q2 games the B12 is 4th, behind the SEC (1st), the BE (2nd), and the B1G (3rd).

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

Teams like Iowas St, Oklahoma, and BYU have soared up the metrics by beating the crap out of really bad teams. All 3 teams have KP Noncon SoS rankings of 300+

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Was messing around with Bart Torvik's site and if you look at just Q1/Q2 games the B12 is 4th, behind the SEC (1st), the BE (2nd), and the B1G (3rd).

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

Teams like Iowas St, Oklahoma, and BYU have soared up the metrics by beating the crap out of really bad teams. All 3 teams have KP Noncon SoS rankings of 300+

Another interesting Torvik stat, by slightly adjusting the query posted above:

The Big Ten has 7 wins against top ten teams (adjusted for venue). No other conference has more than 2 wins.

 

[tjreese]

It is my understanding that the refs are promoted to the next round based on their performance reffing their current round. How much does what they call in a game depend on their perception of what the ref selection team wants to see? In other words, if the people who select the refs for the next round don't want the game interrupted by a large number of foul calls, I would assume the refs are going to not call a lot of fouls. On the other hand, if the perception is that the ref selection team wants to see the refs in control and that it's good basketball rather than rugby...

Add to it that refs inside a game are in different locations for the teams. One ref may be inside (under the basket or baseline standing) for Purdue and on the perimeter on the other end. The three areas the refs have major coverage rotates as the ball goes up and down and so you won't have the same ref coverage for the same area.