I made this for Iowa last week and it ended up painting a shockingly accurate picture of the game so now I'm going to look at Wisconsin. I'm actually more worried about Wisconsin than Iowa.
Stats that Wisconsin is bottom-5 in the Big Ten in:
13th Scoring/Game
9th Total Yards/Game
10th Total Yards/Play
12th Pass Yards/Game
12th Completion %
14th Pass TDs/Game
12th INTs/Game
14th TD/INT Ratio
11th Pass Yards/Attempt
14th INTs Defense/Game
13th TD/INT Ratio Defense
14th Fumbles Lost/Game
14th Turnover Margin
10th Sacks/Game
14th 3rd Down Conversion %
9th Red Zone Scoring % Offense
9th Red Zone TD % Offense
Wisconsin is similar to Iowa in several ways, but the big differences here are that Wisconsin turns the ball over A TON without generating many turnovers themselves, and we'll see later that they're still pretty good at running the ball. Those are polar opposites of what Iowa has been doing this year.
To say Wisconsin is struggling to pass the ball is an understatement. Of Big Ten QBs that have played in 75% of their games Graham Mertz ranks 12th out of 13 in QB rating (only ahead of Michael Penix). I can't even pull him up on the national QB rankings because he's not in the top 100 nationally. Wisconsin throws 3 interceptions for every 1 touchdown. They have a bad completion percentage, don't gain many yards, get sacked a lot... every passing stat is awful for Wisconsin.
Wisconsin ranks last in turnover margin, but as I said last week when Iowa ranked 1st in turnover margin, turnovers can be a flukey stat. Purdue's had issues with the turnover margin all year but somehow put up +3 against Iowa. If Wisconsin suddenly holds onto the ball they will be a much different team and Purdue needs to not get caught off guard the way Iowa was when the turnover margin wasn't in their favor. And that's kind of been the killer for Wisconsin: They keep fumbling the ball in exchanges, or at the snap. All Wisconsin needs to do is not commit unforced turnovers and they'll be a different team.
Here's some concerning stats on what Wisconsin is good at:
4th Rush Yards/Game
5th Rush TDs/Game
5th Rush Yards/Attempt
1st Total Yards Allowed/Game
1st Total Yards Allowed/Play
1st Pass Yards Allowed/Game
1st Rush Yards Allowed/Game
1st Completion % Defense
4th Pass TDs Allowed/Game
4th Pass Yards/Attempt
2nd Rush TDs Allowed/Game
1st Rush Yards Allowed/Attempt
1st 3rd Down Conversion % Allowed
4th Red Zone Scoring Defense
5th Red Zone TD Defense
So right off the bat, this is a stellar defense. 1st in all notable yardage stats. Wisconsin is only average-ish in scoring allowed due to two pick-sixes and a kickoff return TD allowed, otherwise they rank top-4 in passing TDs allowed and rushing TDs allowed. They are 1st in 3rd down defense, and rank well in red zone defense as well. This will be a challenge for Purdue to move the ball and score. So was Iowa, but this will be an even greater challenge.
Note: Wisconsin did play Army in non-conference play, who basically don't throw the ball. I checked and Wisconsin's pass defense stats are still pretty great if you filter them out, so that doesn't create a crazy outlier.
Obviously when we think of Wisconsin we think of running the ball, and while they aren't as elite at rushing this year compared to recent years they're still pretty good. They are 25th nationally in rushing yards per game, although only 58th in rushing yards per attempt. While solid rankings, those are both the worst team rushing rankings since 2016, not counting 2020 when Wisconsin was destroyed with COVID. Chez Mellusi ranks 34th nationally in rushing yards per game (and not in the top 100 in yards per play) but you'll have to go back six years for the last time a Wisconsin back has ranked that low. But one thing that is constant with Wisconsin is that even if they're not ELITE elite, they'll still keep pounding and they'll eventually get that big run. They rank 12th nationally in rushing attempts.
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The formula for beating Wisconsin this year is obvious, but even in a disappointing season it's still much easier said than done. You need to get up early and force Wisconsin to play from behind. Even in a 3-3 year so far only Michigan has won by getting a decent lead early. Penn State and Notre Dame had to grind it out with Wisconsin and pull away late. Can Purdue grind with Wisconsin? Probably better than most recent years, but that's still not how we want the game to go.
There are a couple of rays of light for Purdue's passing offense: 1. Wisconsin does not generate a lot of sacks. AOC had plenty of time to throw against Iowa and that really allowed us to do what we wanted, it'd be great to do that again. 2. Wisconsin is dead last in interceptions with only 2 on the year. If we're not turning the ball over and not getting sacked I'll take AOC->Bell over almost anyone.
I get why Wisconsin was initially favored in this game, but I think it's more right that it has moved closer to a push. It's really hard to predict what is going to happen. Will Purdue's pass offense do better against Wisconsin's pass defense, or will Wisconsin's run offense do better against Purdue's run defense? Both offenses are very one-dimensional.
Keys to the game:
Stats that Wisconsin is bottom-5 in the Big Ten in:
13th Scoring/Game
9th Total Yards/Game
10th Total Yards/Play
12th Pass Yards/Game
12th Completion %
14th Pass TDs/Game
12th INTs/Game
14th TD/INT Ratio
11th Pass Yards/Attempt
14th INTs Defense/Game
13th TD/INT Ratio Defense
14th Fumbles Lost/Game
14th Turnover Margin
10th Sacks/Game
14th 3rd Down Conversion %
9th Red Zone Scoring % Offense
9th Red Zone TD % Offense
Wisconsin is similar to Iowa in several ways, but the big differences here are that Wisconsin turns the ball over A TON without generating many turnovers themselves, and we'll see later that they're still pretty good at running the ball. Those are polar opposites of what Iowa has been doing this year.
To say Wisconsin is struggling to pass the ball is an understatement. Of Big Ten QBs that have played in 75% of their games Graham Mertz ranks 12th out of 13 in QB rating (only ahead of Michael Penix). I can't even pull him up on the national QB rankings because he's not in the top 100 nationally. Wisconsin throws 3 interceptions for every 1 touchdown. They have a bad completion percentage, don't gain many yards, get sacked a lot... every passing stat is awful for Wisconsin.
Wisconsin ranks last in turnover margin, but as I said last week when Iowa ranked 1st in turnover margin, turnovers can be a flukey stat. Purdue's had issues with the turnover margin all year but somehow put up +3 against Iowa. If Wisconsin suddenly holds onto the ball they will be a much different team and Purdue needs to not get caught off guard the way Iowa was when the turnover margin wasn't in their favor. And that's kind of been the killer for Wisconsin: They keep fumbling the ball in exchanges, or at the snap. All Wisconsin needs to do is not commit unforced turnovers and they'll be a different team.
Here's some concerning stats on what Wisconsin is good at:
4th Rush Yards/Game
5th Rush TDs/Game
5th Rush Yards/Attempt
1st Total Yards Allowed/Game
1st Total Yards Allowed/Play
1st Pass Yards Allowed/Game
1st Rush Yards Allowed/Game
1st Completion % Defense
4th Pass TDs Allowed/Game
4th Pass Yards/Attempt
2nd Rush TDs Allowed/Game
1st Rush Yards Allowed/Attempt
1st 3rd Down Conversion % Allowed
4th Red Zone Scoring Defense
5th Red Zone TD Defense
So right off the bat, this is a stellar defense. 1st in all notable yardage stats. Wisconsin is only average-ish in scoring allowed due to two pick-sixes and a kickoff return TD allowed, otherwise they rank top-4 in passing TDs allowed and rushing TDs allowed. They are 1st in 3rd down defense, and rank well in red zone defense as well. This will be a challenge for Purdue to move the ball and score. So was Iowa, but this will be an even greater challenge.
Note: Wisconsin did play Army in non-conference play, who basically don't throw the ball. I checked and Wisconsin's pass defense stats are still pretty great if you filter them out, so that doesn't create a crazy outlier.
Obviously when we think of Wisconsin we think of running the ball, and while they aren't as elite at rushing this year compared to recent years they're still pretty good. They are 25th nationally in rushing yards per game, although only 58th in rushing yards per attempt. While solid rankings, those are both the worst team rushing rankings since 2016, not counting 2020 when Wisconsin was destroyed with COVID. Chez Mellusi ranks 34th nationally in rushing yards per game (and not in the top 100 in yards per play) but you'll have to go back six years for the last time a Wisconsin back has ranked that low. But one thing that is constant with Wisconsin is that even if they're not ELITE elite, they'll still keep pounding and they'll eventually get that big run. They rank 12th nationally in rushing attempts.
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The formula for beating Wisconsin this year is obvious, but even in a disappointing season it's still much easier said than done. You need to get up early and force Wisconsin to play from behind. Even in a 3-3 year so far only Michigan has won by getting a decent lead early. Penn State and Notre Dame had to grind it out with Wisconsin and pull away late. Can Purdue grind with Wisconsin? Probably better than most recent years, but that's still not how we want the game to go.
There are a couple of rays of light for Purdue's passing offense: 1. Wisconsin does not generate a lot of sacks. AOC had plenty of time to throw against Iowa and that really allowed us to do what we wanted, it'd be great to do that again. 2. Wisconsin is dead last in interceptions with only 2 on the year. If we're not turning the ball over and not getting sacked I'll take AOC->Bell over almost anyone.
I get why Wisconsin was initially favored in this game, but I think it's more right that it has moved closer to a push. It's really hard to predict what is going to happen. Will Purdue's pass offense do better against Wisconsin's pass defense, or will Wisconsin's run offense do better against Purdue's run defense? Both offenses are very one-dimensional.
Keys to the game:
- Can Purdue prevent Wisconsin's run game from going off?
- Can Wisconsin prevent Purdue's pass offense from going off?
- Will Wisconsin stop committing dumb turnovers and start forcing turnovers themselves?
