He's trending upward for regular season success (i.e. reaching the tournament), but he's been on a straight line the past few years when it comes to postseason success.
I simply don't believe that certain coaches "can't" win in the tournament. It's like the baseball playoffs - a lot of luck with match ups, but if you just get there enough, eventually you'll break through.
Calipari, wright, and Ryan are examples of coaches who people said couldn't win in the ncaa tournament. Virginia's coach is currently like this. And it's bogus.