I would start recruiting some 6’7” to 6’9” players to play forward instead of players under 6’5”
9 man rotation prediction with minutes
- Thread starter BoilerDaddy
- Start date
Different skill set on offense and defense than a Fletcher, Dakota, etc. or you just want better players, i.e. skilled guys that are 6'7"+ or willing to trade off skill for more size?
I ask because it's completely legitimate to want bigger players and trade that off for skill. Not a lot of teams are doing that, but that doesn't make it bad. If you just want bigger guys with the same guard skills, I think everyone wants those guys.
Yep. Painter has recruited those players. But recruiting and signing are different things.
I have no idea what Mayer will bring. If he's truly a one and doner then yeah, he should bench Loyer for him. Have a defensive player like Cox start at the 3. Bring Loyer in for microwave offense. That's not going to happen though.
I suspect the starting lineup will be TKR and one of the bigs, Loyer and Smith and then Cox or Mayer.
Now, will Loyer play 30+ minutes? Probably not. Unless Mayer simply has been overrated and isn't quite the ready for primetime talent. Then the guard rotations might look very similar to last season.
But if Mayer is 70 percent or more as advertised and Cox and Harris improve, plus a few minutes for Benter, well almost by necessity that doesn't translate to 30+ for Loyer and you probably won't see Smith play near 40 unless it's a nailbiter all 40 minutes.
It will be interesting to see if Benter can be a real threat from three in limited minutes. That’s probably his path to getting in the rotation as the sixth backcourt/ wing player this season.
Burgess could redshirt this year.
No way does Mayer only get 5, probably 15+
Benter will get some minutes
Here’s mine. Most are high numbers and blowouts and non-conf they will be lower
Smith 35
Loyer 30
TKR 35
Cox 25
Cluff 25
Jacobsen 15
Harris 15
Mayer 15
I think Benter and Murphy get 5-10 each at the expense of guys above. For example I expect smith and tkr to only average 32 mpg but will play 35 a lot.
Ya it is really hard to predict, but all we really need to be seriously legit is one or two of the ? guards to either improve or be as good as advertised and we are going to be extremely good. We know what we get from Loyer and Smith. We just need 2 of Cox, Harris, Mayer, Benter, and West to be able to play better than Cox did last year as a freshman and the team will be greatly improved. Seems very likely. If they all or most of them play to that level it will take some serious juggling, to keep everyone motivated.
I don't see Loyer and Smith logging as many minutes as they did last year, as you said. But it really does depend on the other 5 guards. It would be great for the team is Smith could play 28-32 min for the first half of the season without a huge drop-off, so he is fresh for the second half. Loyer was putting in 30 min. because there was no one that was that much better on D, that could make up for his extremely efficient O. That might not be the case this year, we will see.
Mayer has to learn a brand new game that Fletch already understands completely. Fletch won't lose a minute as a fourth year starter. Painter is going to give the guys who got him to this point every opportunity win it all and has brought in the inside help that was needed.
I’d place a wager on the Fletch wont lose a single minute statement. If he doesn’t improve his consistency and none of the other guys cut into his minutes that’s not a great sign for us taking the next step. Fletch is good and likely starts but I do believe and even hope someone cuts into his PT because it offers improvement and helps take us up a level!
Consistency?!
Fletch scored in double figures in 29 games last year. Shot 44% from 3 (on almost 5 3s a game) and 46% overall (career best).
What more do you expect from a 3rd scoring option? He may even be 4th this year.
Last year was much better but it seems like his contribution from 3 was missing at times when needed, case it point look at his 3 point performance in games at the end of last year. I like Fletcher but am under no delusion that there couldn’t be someone step up and contribute as much or not more in my opinion
Fletcher Loyer - Purdue Boilermakers Guard - ESPN
View the profile of Purdue Boilermakers Guard Fletcher Loyer on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.
Last year was much better but it seems like his contribution from 3 was missing at times when needed, case it point look at his 3 point performance in games at the end of last year. I like Fletcher but am under no delusion that there couldn’t be someone step up and contribute as much or not more in my opinion
Fletcher Loyer - Purdue Boilermakers Guard - ESPN
View the profile of Purdue Boilermakers Guard Fletcher Loyer on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.www.espn.com
I guess Braden needs to be more consistent from 3 then too, yeah?
Dude lol, don’t take it so personally. I said what I said and very well might be wrong about what appeared to be brief slump periods, but not sure why you seem offended. Fletcher isn’t some golden child that can’t possibly be surpassed in contributions to the team. He’s a good contributor and has damn good sense for the game. So far he appears to be the best 3 point shooter on the team but that’s not saying he hasn’t had some dry spells. We can all patiently or not so patiently wait to see what our other players turn out to be as far as shooters and overall contributors. It is not beyond comprehension that someone could turn out to be better than or as good as Loyer and be a better or as good as fit in the lineups. I never said Fletcher wasn’t good but that he too could also show improvement. I think he could very possibly have less playing time this year due to competition among the team. Hell a bit less time on the court doesn’t mean his contribution to the outcomes will be less. My opinion.
Ask Braden if he feels he could be more consistent and see what he says or how he feels about it. I don’t think Braden’s game is fair to compare head to head with Fletcher as his game brings more to the table in what he does at the point and directing the games flow.
Not taking it personal at all.
I really hope you’re right cuz if we have someone who can shoot it it just as well as fletch (44% on 5 3PAs a game and 85% from FT and average 13+ ppg) and be better on defense while having a weapon like fletch off the bench….then we are going to win it all.
I’m not even saying he doesn’t still start although theres a small possibility . I do believe and actually hope paint feels he has no chance but to give some others more time because they’ve earned it and in doing so Fletchers playing time drops from the around 30 minutes/game to 22-25 minute range. If that happens we’re really going to be hard to beat and it’s a win all the way around!
People see the same thing I see. When Fletch is on, then yes keep him out there til the wheels fall off. But he has halves and even games where he does very little at all because when he isn't shooting or hitting, then what he brings is brought down a lot. Being elite at something one dimensional still means when you are having an off day, as any player can have, that lack of versatility can be a problem for a team trying to win a championship. Higher goals, higher standards.
Now, BECAUSE you don't know if you're getting big game Fletch, you start him for sure. If he's being aggressive, making shots, you run with him. Because big game Fletch wins you games (or keeps you afloat like in the first half against Houston). That game is a perfect example though. Fletch had 12 big points first half. You're absolutely glad you started him! He had 4 pts the second half.
But we have enough talent coming in and homegrown now that when it's clear he's not having it, we can potentially go to Cox, Harris, Mayer, Benter or one of the other new guys instead.
This is simply wrong. This offense is designed to take what the defense gives. If defenses want to prioritize keeping Fletch from getting open looks, which many do, it’s good for everyone else.
Painter would be an idiot to play Fletch 22 minutes a game.
Agree, Fletch is going to have a banner year, shooting around 50% from three, he will take advantage of the bigs inside.
He averaged 30.9 mpg last year and was all big ten honorable mention. I don’t think it’s likely but it is possible cox or Mayer could be better than that and will take more minutes away, maybe he drops to 20-25 mpg and starts. I have fletch getting 30 mpg. There are plenty of times paint took minutes from his vets when we got better including Trevion Williams and Eric Hunter their senior years. Trevion even came off the bench.
Here's the thing IMO about Fletcher. He's a shooter and he's somewhat one-dimensional. When one-dimensional guys don't succeed on that one dimension, then they get overly-criticized. I liken it to relief pitchers in baseball. Or field goal kickers. Or top golfers when they're inside 10 feet. We expect the relief pitcher to not give up runs. We expect Scottie Scheffler to make every putt inside 10 feet. We expect any NFL kicker to be automatic inside of 45 yards. We expect a designated shooter to make all of his open looks.
The truth is that they don't. They can't. The criticism is unfair IMO.
The truth is that they don't. They can't. The criticism is unfair IMO.
We will be National Champions then
Agreed
True but neither started every single game for their whole careers when he did that. Is there any player that started every single game from Frosh - junior year that he then sat?
I mean is it criticism to recognize he's one dimensional and suggest that IF we have multidimensional players who can provide the same scoring plus something else that they should take some of his minutes?
If senior Carsen Edwards suddenly got eligibility, or Ivey magically appeared, I feel like some folks here would still start Fletch over them. No one has even suggested he play less than 20 minutes a game so it feels like the reaction is more extreme than any criticism.
Him being one of the best shooters in college bball does more for other players as well. As an example, It spaces the floor as his defender can’t help/doesn’t help AS much if they were on Harris or Mayer (he didn’t shoot it well from 3 but hopefully that drastically improves after being with the staff this offseason).
If we have someone that can, they should play over him. But I don’t think we do.
I’d start Carsen and JI instantly over him 😂 😂
And part of that is we haven't had a real second option at the 2 during that time. We've had one guy who to this point wasn't a viable starter even over an incoming frosh. It's not like we had a Mayer (caveat if he lives up to the hype).
Let's not pretend Fletch is the best 2G in the country or even the conference. He's been the best on the team to this point, so, logically, he's started.
Having a high percentage on lower volume doesn't cement him as one of the best shooters in bball. Spacing the floor is great but when he isn't aggressive and doesn't shoot, which is too often, then I'm sorry but that alone isn't a reason to play him 30 a game. Harris was already reaching a pretty high three percentage second half of the season by the way.
People really really like Fletch. I get it. But it makes folks go over on defending him from even a hint of suggesting he could lose minutes to more talented players. Not even be benched, just lose 5-10 minutes.
Many here wouldn't. And we don't know yet, that's what fall practice is for to figure out. IF Mayer Cox and Harris aren't ready for more minutes then that's fine.
IF they are, then one of those places those minutes come from is Fletch. And again I didn't even say play over him, I just said take some of his minutes which is what others have said as well. No one is saying send him into the cornfield. That's what gets me about the reactions. All the "criticism" is hey if these younger guys show something maybe Fletch plays 20, and it gets turned into we want him benched.
Not saying he’s the best 2G in the country. I’m saying he’s the best shooter in the country and complements Smith very well. Paint certainly believes in him to not recruit a better 2G.
But not so sure it’s as easy to plug and play the best 2G in the country with this team. Not sure the offense would operate the same. However, I’d love to see it though. I would have liked us to bring in a Kennard Davis type player.
Disagree 100%. There's loyalty to a very good player, and there's obsession about him. Obviously you're talking in hyperboles on something that is not possible, but I don't think anyone here would sit Carsen or Jaden for Fletch.
Evidence he's the best shooter in the country? He led the country neither in percentage or made threes. He's not even top 50 in made 3s.
He would be near the top on percentage last season (although not career) but I believe he didn't shoot enough to get listed but he wouldn't be the top.
I mean I'm pretty sure Painter recruited 2Gs, and we certainly had someone he recruited who COULD have been a better 2G but he didn't work out in Colvin.
So you think Ivey or Carsen would compliment better but another better 2G wouldn't?
I think there are so have to agree to disagree. You have people simultaneously talking up Mayer as a game changer one and doner potentially and yet Fletch plays 30 a game in the same breath.
For P5 returners, he is one of the best. Regardless if he has lower volume. I wish we’d get him more shots up.
Harris was good in January but from Feb on, was around 33% on a lot more wide open looks than fletch. Hope Harris gets even better this year.
I think he probably should be in 25-30 range depending on game flow and matchups.
I hear you. But we haven't seen Painter reduce Fletch’s mins ever. They have gone up every season. I’m just trying to say that I don’t think that’s going to change because a 2nd year Harris and Cox and first year Mayer aren’t going to beat out a 4th year Loyer for more mins…but if they actually do, I would hope that means we are going to be really, really good.
It's going to be interesting. We have a lot of new, pretty pieces, while we have the returning core. The chemistry is going to be key. These exercises are fun and all, but Purdue is in a place right now where different guys can be "the guy" on a game-to-game basis. Matchup dependent. Someone is hot or not. Just because Fletch is going to start doesn't mean we might not see him play 18 minutes a couple of games. We don't know how the dynamic of Cluff will mix with TKR and Jacobsen, with a little side of Burgess (maybe). We've got a long thread going about Benter right now. No clue how he or West fit in.
I try to stay out of these discussions because it's difficult to project right now with so many new pieces. And will we continue with playing the Braden-TKR 2-man game as much as we did last year?
What I do know is, we're going to be very good. Championship-caliber. We all know that. As we said in 2023, it all depends on those 6 games in March/April.
we need to get him double the 3s he took this year. We don’t run any action for him. Liam was up there though this past year for 3pt shooters. Hope he can continue that at a higher level of comp.
I had high hopes for Myles 😢
I’m not sure TKR could operate to his best ability, nor Smith with players like Ivey and Carsen—two ball dominant guys. It’d be interesting to see where the offense would be focused most due to smith, Ivey and Carsen being the best player on their teams. But I’d like to see it.
I think it’d have to be a specific 2G to see how he would play off smith.
Again part of the reason we haven't seen that is players like Colvin and Heide ended up not being better options. I'd argue that, potentially, Mayer or Cox or even Harris could be at least some games when Fletch isn't on.
I can agree with a top shooter, sure. But part of getting him more shots is on him. He passes up shots he absolutely should be taking. I've rarely watched a game where it was don't shoot that Fletch v SHOOT THAT Fletch!
Your opinion and it seems so adamant in the face of lots of missing information. None one of us know what any of the others competing for playing time at his position will bring to the table this year. It’s not unthinkable that Cox or Harris make a big Sophomore jump or that Benter West or Mayer come in and perform so well Paint decides they need significant minutes in playing time, you know kinda like other players have done in the past. Loyer being one of them.
Painter will play who he deems provides the best lineups together on the floor at any time. It’ll vary some from game to game. That might well be Fletch playing 35 minutes or 22, but either way the team on the court hopefully gives us the best chance of winning every night and was determined by who earned that time.
Definitely agree it's going to be dependent on a whole host of things including how players shake out this fall and how individual games go
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