Evening, all, and hello from my desk at home.
Purdue meets Michigan State tonight in East Lansing as part of this impromptu run of four consecutive Big Ten road games.
I view this one as more winnable beforehand than I would have Iowa, Rutgers and Illinois, because Michigan State has a lot of questions too, but it's still a big ask.
The Spartans haven't been great on defense this season and in the backcourt, they're going through what Purdue went through last season, where they've struggled with the transition away from some really good and really influential guards. Point guard has been a sore spot for Michigan State post-Cassius Winston and now they've settled on a freshman, A.J. Hoggard, after their Rocket Watts trial to start the season didn't stick. The post is not what Michigan State is used to, either, as Xavier Tillman has left nearly as considerable a void as Winston.
Point is, winning at Michigan State is never easy, but this isn't an air-tight Michigan State team.
But this is far from an air-tight Purdue team, either. They have shown they can hang with good teams on the road this season, but they have zero wins to show for it, and until they show they know how to win these games, it's tough to expect them to.
Did Michigan State turn a corner the past two games? Maybe.
But Purdue is due to a corner at some point, too.
Some additional thoughts ...
The Battle Inside
Michigan State has no Xavier Tillman or Nick Ward or Jaren Jackson or even Matt Costello or Kenny Goins or whoever ...
They are vulnerable against Trevion Williams and Zach Edey in the post, and the last time Purdue won at the Breslin Center, Michigan State being overmatched on the interior was a big reason why. Michigan State's M.O. has typically been to ask their posts to fight on D one on one and not send doubles. Whether that happens tonight, I have no idea, but if this is a deal were Williams and Edey are one on one all night, the Boilermakers must win that matchup and win it decidedly, and it can't come at the expense of X number of turnovers throwing the ball inside.
And the other part of it is that when Michigan State moves Joey Hauser to the 5 — whether they do tonight against this matchup, I don't know — Purdue has to figure something out. They can't just let Hauser shoot threes over size all night, then drive past it and draw fouls or get Purdue scrambling.
Keeping Hauser and Thomas Kithier or whoever off the offensive glass is really important too.
This is the matchup that decides this game, IMO.
Pace
Purdue doesn't have to dominate the pace of play, but it can't lose control of it. Turnovers, long rebounds off bad shots, falling asleep at the wheel off made field goals and all that will put Michigan State in transition. How many times did Purdue's guards dribble too deep at Illinois, get stuck or get challenged by Kofi Cockburn and turn it over, triggering Illinois fast breaks?
There's simply no overstating this.
Eric Hunter will need to have a good defensive game on A.J. Hoggard to make things uncomfortable for him and to try to stop the ball. The more Hoggard looks like a freshman tonight, the better Purdue's chances.
Offensive poise
Eric Hunter has to have a really good offensive game, too, because this is another game where it's really hard to win without veteran-like guard play. The turnovers have to stop from everyone, but the standard is different for those with experience. His decision-making the past few games — specifically the road games — hasn't been what Purdue needs.
Tonight, it's really hard to see Purdue winning if that remains the case. Purdue has to take the right shots, make the right decisions and pass and catch well.
Obviously.
Thanks, everybody.
I'll chip in here during the game and on Twitter at @brianneubert
Discuss the game here or however you wish.
Full coverage afterward.
Purdue meets Michigan State tonight in East Lansing as part of this impromptu run of four consecutive Big Ten road games.
I view this one as more winnable beforehand than I would have Iowa, Rutgers and Illinois, because Michigan State has a lot of questions too, but it's still a big ask.
The Spartans haven't been great on defense this season and in the backcourt, they're going through what Purdue went through last season, where they've struggled with the transition away from some really good and really influential guards. Point guard has been a sore spot for Michigan State post-Cassius Winston and now they've settled on a freshman, A.J. Hoggard, after their Rocket Watts trial to start the season didn't stick. The post is not what Michigan State is used to, either, as Xavier Tillman has left nearly as considerable a void as Winston.
Point is, winning at Michigan State is never easy, but this isn't an air-tight Michigan State team.
But this is far from an air-tight Purdue team, either. They have shown they can hang with good teams on the road this season, but they have zero wins to show for it, and until they show they know how to win these games, it's tough to expect them to.
Did Michigan State turn a corner the past two games? Maybe.
But Purdue is due to a corner at some point, too.
Some additional thoughts ...
The Battle Inside
Michigan State has no Xavier Tillman or Nick Ward or Jaren Jackson or even Matt Costello or Kenny Goins or whoever ...
They are vulnerable against Trevion Williams and Zach Edey in the post, and the last time Purdue won at the Breslin Center, Michigan State being overmatched on the interior was a big reason why. Michigan State's M.O. has typically been to ask their posts to fight on D one on one and not send doubles. Whether that happens tonight, I have no idea, but if this is a deal were Williams and Edey are one on one all night, the Boilermakers must win that matchup and win it decidedly, and it can't come at the expense of X number of turnovers throwing the ball inside.
And the other part of it is that when Michigan State moves Joey Hauser to the 5 — whether they do tonight against this matchup, I don't know — Purdue has to figure something out. They can't just let Hauser shoot threes over size all night, then drive past it and draw fouls or get Purdue scrambling.
Keeping Hauser and Thomas Kithier or whoever off the offensive glass is really important too.
This is the matchup that decides this game, IMO.
Pace
Purdue doesn't have to dominate the pace of play, but it can't lose control of it. Turnovers, long rebounds off bad shots, falling asleep at the wheel off made field goals and all that will put Michigan State in transition. How many times did Purdue's guards dribble too deep at Illinois, get stuck or get challenged by Kofi Cockburn and turn it over, triggering Illinois fast breaks?
There's simply no overstating this.
Eric Hunter will need to have a good defensive game on A.J. Hoggard to make things uncomfortable for him and to try to stop the ball. The more Hoggard looks like a freshman tonight, the better Purdue's chances.
Offensive poise
Eric Hunter has to have a really good offensive game, too, because this is another game where it's really hard to win without veteran-like guard play. The turnovers have to stop from everyone, but the standard is different for those with experience. His decision-making the past few games — specifically the road games — hasn't been what Purdue needs.
Tonight, it's really hard to see Purdue winning if that remains the case. Purdue has to take the right shots, make the right decisions and pass and catch well.
Obviously.
Thanks, everybody.
I'll chip in here during the game and on Twitter at @brianneubert
Discuss the game here or however you wish.
Full coverage afterward.
