First day in awhile we’ve had less than 100k tests ... but that could be lack of reporting on Sunday. The declines look good, but of course it could be some missing reporters today ...
COVID-19 Statistical Prediction Model
- Thread starter BoilerBulldog
- Start date
Testing lab staff need a day off eventually as well. Hopefully the new Abbott test you posted earlier will take the strain off lab techs and give us more data. I think the President said they are going to deliver 50k tests a day. Definitely a game-changer to hopefully slow the spread even further.
Reading between the lines, I don't think Fauci really believes those numbers (at least on the upper end of range). The world total death is around 30K right now. If those numbers are close to accurate it doesn't seem logical that the U.S will 5 -6 times the current world total.
Birx cited a University of Washington model. That model is saying it could reach 80K in first wave of the virus. That may end up being too high, but that seems more logical.
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Surprised Fauci gave any numbers. Nonetheless, it gave Trump a great talking point, and he ran with it. And it's probably true that the collective response has saved up to a couple million lives. I say this believing Fauci has zero political agenda. It just shows how big of an impact our elected leaders can have on our lives.
I was just saying for his Chinese in Chi argument. Totally agree that there 2 to3 but maybe even 10x times
diagnosed cases right now, especially before about March 25 or so when testing really ramped up.
I think Fauci said that to wake up any 'its just flu' people still out there. People trust him and saying that will hopefully make people listen.
A few days ago, I thought we would see 500,000 cases and 5,000-10,000 deaths by the end of April. I am already thinking these numbers could be conservative. Why? There is just no easy way to factor in the speed with which this is fanning out across the country, nor the impact that the ventilator shortages will have on deaths. The Indy infections are now reaching Anderson.
Example: A week ago, we had maybe 1 case. We just had another 6 this morning. That's 14 in just the last 3 days & 1 death. It's ramping up here. One of the new ones was 38, with the others over 80
Example: A week ago, we had maybe 1 case. We just had another 6 this morning. That's 14 in just the last 3 days & 1 death. It's ramping up here. One of the new ones was 38, with the others over 80
Hopefully Italy starting to trend in a good way (they are at least 2 weeks ‘ahead’ of us on this thing ..)
Well today is the day Dr. Frank has been predicting to be the peak. He's still sticking to his guns.
While we would all love for this to be over, that is just wishful thinking. This is just getting STARTED ! (No containment, minimal testing, lack of country-wide coordination, no enforcement and the lack of medical supplies are about to add fuel to the fire)
Anderson update - only had a "few" as of last week, now 25 since then and 11 last night. (one of which was an employee in a local nursing home - we are about to become a new hot spot.)
I also find it interesting that the corridor between Cincinnati and Indy is creating hot spots all along that interstate. (Truckers?, . . who knows)
Maybe, but northern Italy has some of the worst air pollution in the world just behind China. That's one reason why their death rates were so high.
Wishful thinking. Sadly we are just getting started on this and the peak is a few weeks away. It’s too bad trump didn’t really do much to prepare for this in February. Just sad to see our health and wealth both disappear because one mans incompetence and failure to listen to his own intelligence.
He updated his total death projection today to 7000. Trump’s team today says with current level of social distancing and other mitigation’s it is 100,000 deaths. Fauci said we might do better, but clearly Dr Franks’ model is not even close to being right. With deaths doubling every three to four days, we’ll blow thru today’s number by the end of the weekend. Maybe a month from now the shape will start to bend like he projects, but it is not doing it a week from now. Deaths lag cases by two weeks or so, so we need to see cases bend first. His model says cases is at maximum today. Will he just keep putting the peak off another day for a month.
Talk about twisting the facts. Their death rate IS high because their healthcare system got overrun by patients and they had to start giving the ICU beds to those most likely to survive. The major media reported on this for weeks. (Google it) I think the U.S. will see the same thing in April. Yes, Italians had underlying conditions, but . . . that doesn't mean more couldn't have been saved if the healthcare system wasn't overrun.
Sadly, I agree with you - his model will not even be close. However, while my predictions will be closer (ie 500,000 cases by end of April . .) I KNOW I have a conservative bias in my numbers, so they will most likely be too low.
I have no clue if he'll prove closer to right than wrong but I'm hoping he's on to something. Yesterday should be concerning for anyone that is adamant he is right and everyone else is wrong.
If models are assuming that every city ends up like NY, I don't know that I'm quite there yet. I saw that mentioned somewhere (that the federal model is doing this) but I don't have the source.
Another thing mentioned on that page I found interesting is that they weren't seeing the lag in deaths from cases with Wuhan or early on here (maybe a day or two at most). The rationale given was that until recently by the time you felt sick enough to get a test (if you could even), and then wait a week for results, you'd be dead around the same time the positive result came back. As people have grown more proactive in seeking tests, and as testing rates have gone up, the death lag is probably changing as we go with positive cases logged earlier with a growing lag to deaths.
One lesson this thread might provide is that when one "expert", regardless of credentials, makes claims which are diametrically opposed to the overwhelming consensus of thousands of other experts, maybe you shouldn't pay much attention to that person?
He can't just keep increasing his projection by a few days, or a few thousand, every week or so. He should just admit his model was completely wrong from the start.
It's all relative though. He's about the process and the data as much as being right. By ignoring all media/news he isn't factoring in policies (or lack thereof) that others might be. A flaw in his approach IMO but it is what it is.
If he projects a few thousand and we end up at 15-20k when all other experts project a lot more then it's still significant what he did. Everyone can determine for themselves at what point they want to say they should fully ignore him. For me, we're not there yet but it would be pretty soon if his model is failing.
I also generally agree that when there is only one person so far opposed to everyone else then they are most likely the outlier. I can only hope he's right and still like the daily charting to see how things are going even if he's not.
So to be clear. His model stated we would peak a couple of days ago and have a total of 1500 deaths. We've already blown past that and the daily rate of # of new cases and # of deaths are still increasing.
Yet you see hope in his modeling because he just keeps adjusting it to the "new normal" and it may (not likely based off current data) be closer to the end result?
So your plan is to follow him until we reach what 50,0000 deaths and we're then closer to 100k models instead of his original model of 1500?
The problem with him publishing this faulty model is that people read it and think "no big deal, we'll peak in March and fewer people will die from Covid-19 than the regular flu". Then they don't follow social distancing, have big parties, etc.
He is not just very wrong, but also very irresponsible.
Correct. The more people that listen to him and follow what he says the more likely they are to put themselves and others in unnecessary danger.
At this point, this well-intentioned gentleman is serving to do two things: 1) provide false hope; 2) provide additional backing to the people that continue to have their heads in the sand, including a number of people who listened to the president as he dismissed the severity and misinterpreted what Dr Birx said last week as "debunking extreme projections." Well, now those "extreme projections" are sitting on a poster board right behind the President as he briefs the nation, and this guy and his GIGO model needs to just stop.
Again, it's relative - we haven't "blown past" anything yet if you compare to the scenario of peak in May and 100-200k deaths. You're hung up on his original model showing 1500 deaths whereas I am not...ok, it is what it is. His model was not correct in projecting 1500 deaths. His current model showing more deaths will be low as well. Where I start to draw a line in "hoping" he is on the right track is probably if there is no clear signs of a peak by EOD Friday and deaths continue to accelerate daily. That's just me. Even then, the charting alone makes it a great place to get daily updates for every state and the big picture overall.
My plan is to stay in quarantine and follow a lot of sources including him. I'm not arguing that he is right, only sharing where some of his explanations (and he does a lot of explaining when nobody else does) seem interesting enough to share....one of which I think is the lag between positive case and death as it's changing as this goes.
I do agree that it can be dangerous in that it could support those who truly have their heads in the sand and are ignoring what they should be doing. I'd prefer his following to stay small for this reason.
How I'm consuming his content doesn't hurt what is going on or what needs to be going on but I can't say that for anyone but myself.
Didn't try to dissuade you from consuming it. Rather, I'd as soon try to dissuade him from posting it in the first place.
I'm good with that too.
Anyone have a site they like that isn't predicting but is just reporting and maintaining daily tracking for every state?
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ is one for visual charts.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/ has the predictive models that I think most are referencing
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is good but you only get current day and day prior.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
This one updates frequently (mulitple times an hour) with links to sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/...fff_Qxs2rNY#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
This one is being maintained by John's Hopkins, but the mobile experience sucks, and getting down to the state level isn't very good either.
https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1
This one refreshes on the hour with the John Hopkins data and has a much better UI/UX and breaks it down at the state level. You can dig in to state details and see trends/hospitalization stats/etc. I'd ignore the projectiosn though as that's just being re-calculated based on previous data and isn't actually looking for peak, slowdowns, etc. Just forecasting.
Bonus ::
https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard
This social distancing scoreboard shows how each state/county is doing at reducing their travel distance.
Thanks for this one. Much better than the JHU site itself.
I wouldn’t put to much stock in those numbers or projections, looks like hes ball parking it. His test numbers are obviously wrong.
Here it comes folks ! It's not a wave, it's a tsunami.
1.) Cases have gone from 75,000 on March 26 to 216,000 now
2.) Deaths have gone from about 1,100 on Mar 26th to about 5,100 now
3.) New cases per day have gone from about 10,000 to 26,000 now
4.) Daily death count for the last week is: 158, 390, 604, 260, 677, 709 & 1,242
5.) Indiana cases jumped 50% yesterday (in one day !) 1786 to 2568
6.) Indiana deaths practically doubled yesterday (from 35 to 65 after yesterday)
Local hospitals are now becoming stressed, pools of available healthcare workers which were freed up by cancelling procedures are now being used, PPE is still a SIGNIFICANT issue, we are already losing healthcare workers and we may see another 10-15% opt out of this crisis (ie retirements, people refusing to go into these pools for backfilling stressed hospitals, etc..) Why? Because some just can't take that risk- have major illnesses in their families at home. The cost of just one illness on the family would dwarf what they get in pay now, etc..
Note: When I was watching other countries in Jan and Feb, they were doubling every week. We are currently doubling at TWICE that rate.
Note: Many moons ago, I said our country would FEEL like Italy. I still believe that.
For me, this is starting to look like a modern day Passover - don't open your doors !
1.) Cases have gone from 75,000 on March 26 to 216,000 now
2.) Deaths have gone from about 1,100 on Mar 26th to about 5,100 now
3.) New cases per day have gone from about 10,000 to 26,000 now
4.) Daily death count for the last week is: 158, 390, 604, 260, 677, 709 & 1,242
5.) Indiana cases jumped 50% yesterday (in one day !) 1786 to 2568
6.) Indiana deaths practically doubled yesterday (from 35 to 65 after yesterday)
Local hospitals are now becoming stressed, pools of available healthcare workers which were freed up by cancelling procedures are now being used, PPE is still a SIGNIFICANT issue, we are already losing healthcare workers and we may see another 10-15% opt out of this crisis (ie retirements, people refusing to go into these pools for backfilling stressed hospitals, etc..) Why? Because some just can't take that risk- have major illnesses in their families at home. The cost of just one illness on the family would dwarf what they get in pay now, etc..
Note: When I was watching other countries in Jan and Feb, they were doubling every week. We are currently doubling at TWICE that rate.
Note: Many moons ago, I said our country would FEEL like Italy. I still believe that.
For me, this is starting to look like a modern day Passover - don't open your doors !
If you post this same message in 4 or 5 more threads, I think you'll have reached maximum potential broadcast.
I don’t care about the projections. The data is presented much cleaner there.
Cases have gone from 75,000 (1 wk ago) to 245,000 now
Dead has gone from 1,100 (1 wk ago) to 6,100
New daily cases (adds) has gone from 9,900//day (1 wk ago) to 29.600
Deaths in the last 7 days: 398 -604-260-677-709-1242-784
Indiana has gone from 645 cases (1 wk ago) to 3,038 now
Indiana deaths has gone from 17 (1 wk ago) to 78 now
(Last 3 days - 35 -65-78)
Indiana trend, in total cases: 645-979-1513-1786-2568-3038
We are doubling these numbers TWICE as fast as the rest of the world. (days versus a week) April will be BAD
Dead has gone from 1,100 (1 wk ago) to 6,100
New daily cases (adds) has gone from 9,900//day (1 wk ago) to 29.600
Deaths in the last 7 days: 398 -604-260-677-709-1242-784
Indiana has gone from 645 cases (1 wk ago) to 3,038 now
Indiana deaths has gone from 17 (1 wk ago) to 78 now
(Last 3 days - 35 -65-78)
Indiana trend, in total cases: 645-979-1513-1786-2568-3038
We are doubling these numbers TWICE as fast as the rest of the world. (days versus a week) April will be BAD
I find myself tuning out cases and instead am watching death totals almost exclusively.
Cases appear to be too convoluted by continual changing in testing (# tests administered kept going up in the past 2 weeks, backlogs in labs getting results mess with reporting, etc). We need it to keep increasing...just hard to tell where we are at with that data.
The deaths tell the story although the reporting there isn't clean immediately either (there are a lot of revisions so you almost have to wait a couple days to have confidence in daily totals, especially in places like NY were there are a lot of them).
Places like California demonstrate that social distancing is proving really effective in slowing and flattening this thing. LA and SF could have easily been in the position NY is in right now. It's maddening to see states and people not taking it seriously yet as it will only extend how long the rest of us are in for.
Hopefully I've already had it and just don't know it...I feel like we'll finally come out of quarantine and I'll immediately get sick....
saw some independent analysis of the cdc data. daily cases have leveled off. hopefully that trend continues. we will peak within a week or 2.
