Good points - I don't watch anything by itself -More specifically, . . I watch trends and velocity
COVID-19 Statistical Prediction Model
- Thread starter BoilerBulldog
- Start date
Good points - I don't watch anything by itself -More specifically, . . I watch trends and velocity
Agree on tracking deaths being much more relevant, number of cases is worthless stat.
Unfortunate New York didn't act sooner. Also unfortunate they allowed residents to leave state. Surprised Newsom has only got a very small fraction of the praise that Cuomo has gotten. Appears to me Newsom has done a much better job than Cuomo.
LA, SF and especially San Diego are far more spread out than NYC is.
People started social distancing out here before it was ordered (just like a lot of other places). Population density in CA is also less than in NYC. e.g. I live about 12 minutes from downtown San Diego and I have an acre.
You also wonder about our weather. It's not been warm, and it's rained a lot in the last month, but especially in San Diego we get a lot more sun than a lot of other places, which can help kill the virus outdoors anyway.
Overall, though, I recalled the conversation I had with my wife on March 11th about how this was going to decimate the economy, and two days later we started shutting down. It's amazing we've been at this for three weeks already out here... seems like a handful of days.
As of yesterday, there were 8 confirmed cases in my zip code.
Last week, when the death toll was under 1k, I remember arguing with someone somewhere who thought the death toll won't exceed 10k total. I told the person, we will cross that number in 2 weeks. 8 days later, we are at 7k dead. We will be well over 10k by monday.
we will be over 50k dead before then end of April. This is really sad
we will be over 50k dead before then end of April. This is really sad
I was simply stating what I heard from the German head of infectious diseases.
There is a report that Australian scientists have determined that a head lice treatment may be effective in killing SARS-CoV-2 virus
Daily Mail Article
Daily Mail Article
It would be beyond wonderful if this drug works as it is already available, has been used on humans, and the common side effects are relatively mild
70, thanks for the article. Isn't it great that we're seeing such efforts being displayed with positive results.
Just helps me to stay positive during this lock down.
Just helps me to stay positive during this lock down.
I get that, but when things like this happen, you have to listen more to the people in the ICUs. Those "IN" the fight understand the issues far better.
Ironic, that one of my comments on Italy resurfaced today. Why? because I said we would FEEL like Italy before this was over. Here, in Anderson, we now FEEL like Italy - We now have a 12% death rate.
Madison County is an outlier to Marion County and Indy. A lot of folks who work in Indy live in Madison County/Anderson because of lower costs of living. Thus, they're going to have more cases. Just as other surrounding counties.
Unfortunately, the confirmed death totals are lower than actual. If a patient suspected of COVID-19 dies before the test returns, it is canceled immediately to make room for another test for a living patient. Because there is such a backlog, they don't test the dead, only the living, so they can make proper medical management decisions.
In our rural county hospital, there have been 8 deaths suspected from Covid-19, but only 3 are confirmed. So officially, we only count 3, when it could be more.
We are entering a 2-3 wk period where no one knows what is going to shake out. The current trend says 30,000-50,000 by the end of April, but . . what that is NOT taking into account is the hospitals being overwhelmed without enough ventilators. (ie The Italy scenario)
I am "hoping" it stays in the 50,000-100,000 range this month, or the virus is going to impact every family in this country.
