2018-2019 Basketball Predictions

[BoilerIron]

I just look at

Trent Frazier 35% from 3
Aaron Jordan 46%
Kipper Nichols 38%

Andres Feliz shot 42% from 3 at his previous stop. Ive seen video of him and he is awesome. His handle is so tight and controlled and he can get to wherever hes trying to get because hes so quick. Had 207 assists to only 76 turnovers. Averaged 20 points per game.

You surround him with

Frazier
Ayo
Kipper Nichols

Have Aaron Jordan as the first sub off the bench since Ayo Dosunmu, Trent Frazier, and Andres Feliz can all play point.

That lineup is going to be a matchup nightmare for teams when they are on defenseand create a ton of turnovers against opposing offenses.

If you go look at the numbers, Leron Black and Michael Finke especially were terrible defensively for them last season. Kipper Nichols was their best defender and he showed a ton of promise on offense so an increased role for him is a very good thing going into his junior year.

Ayo is regarded as a defensive terror and will fit Underwoods high pressure system like a glove.

Theres a lot to love about Illinois if they can stay healthy. The center position is obviously a hige question mark for them with the Adobis de whatever and this Samba w
kane mystery box, but I like that Nichols had such a good rebound % since it will allow Illinois to play small.

Looking at them offensively last year, they just turned it over way too much, voiding out all the turnovers they forced themselves defensively and allowed other teams easy points.

I think this Feliz guy, along with their freshman phenom Ayo(who played very well during his time with USA basketball according to reports) is going to remedy that and youre going to see a very efficient offense that can shoot the 3 from 4 positions but also get to the rim with multiple guys and a team that forces a tonof turnovers again.


They arent deep so this is all predicated on them staying healthy, but theres a lot to love about Illinois this season.

They for sure have not just better guards than Michigan State, they have guards who are vastly superior to the Spartans guards by a country mile.

Cash Winston might be the best PG in the league, so they definitely aren't better at the PG spot. If Illinois' guards are better by a country mile than MSU's, then MSU's front court is better by 1000 country miles than Illinois'. I will be absolutely floored if Illinois doesn't finish in the bottom 4. I would bet my entire future career earnings that MSU finishes better than Illinois this year.

JUCO transfers hardly ever produce at a high level, yet they are always hyped up that way (See posts here from last year claiming Ewing was going to be a day 1 starter).

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

I just look at

Trent Frazier 35% from 3
Aaron Jordan 46%
Kipper Nichols 38%

Andres Feliz shot 42% from 3 at his previous stop. Ive seen video of him and he is awesome. His handle is so tight and controlled and he can get to wherever hes trying to get because hes so quick. Had 207 assists to only 76 turnovers. Averaged 20 points per game.

You surround him with

Frazier
Ayo
Kipper Nichols

Have Aaron Jordan as the first sub off the bench since Ayo Dosunmu, Trent Frazier, and Andres Feliz can all play point.

That lineup is going to be a matchup nightmare for teams when they are on defenseand create a ton of turnovers against opposing offenses.

If you go look at the numbers, Leron Black and Michael Finke especially were terrible defensively for them last season. Kipper Nichols was their best defender and he showed a ton of promise on offense so an increased role for him is a very good thing going into his junior year.

Ayo is regarded as a defensive terror and will fit Underwoods high pressure system like a glove.

Theres a lot to love about Illinois if they can stay healthy. The center position is obviously a hige question mark for them with the Adobis de whatever and this Samba w
kane mystery box, but I like that Nichols had such a good rebound % since it will allow Illinois to play small.

Looking at them offensively last year, they just turned it over way too much, voiding out all the turnovers they forced themselves defensively and allowed other teams easy points.

I think this Feliz guy, along with their freshman phenom Ayo(who played very well during his time with USA basketball according to reports) is going to remedy that and youre going to see a very efficient offense that can shoot the 3 from 4 positions but also get to the rim with multiple guys and a team that forces a tonof turnovers again.


They arent deep so this is all predicated on them staying healthy, but theres a lot to love about Illinois this season.

They for sure have not just better guards than Michigan State, they have guards who are vastly superior to the Spartans guards by a country mile.

They don't have guards vastly superior to MSU. Cassius Winston is one of the best point guards in the country who had one of the best A/TO ratios last year and was nearly a 50% 3 point shooter last year. I know you think Josh Langford is just some bum who can't hack it, but he's more than an adequate B10 SG who is a career double digit scorer who shoots 40+% from 3. Matt McQuaid may start but he's not going to play 30+ mpg next year. McQuaid is a better, more reliable version of our very own Ryan Cline. MSU will have a solid third guard/wing rotation of McQuiad/Gabe Brown/Kenny Goins/Aaron Henry. Nick Ward is one of the most efficient offensive big men in the country and Xavier Tillman and Marcus Bingham will provide quality front court depth. Your assessment of MSU is off by a country mile. They are not only the most experienced team in the B10, but also the most talented, and have the best coach in the B10. MSU will finish no worse than 3rd in the B10 next year. Top to bottom the conference will be much more competitive this year than last, but of the three teams who dominated the conference last year, MSU by far and away returns the most.

To your points on Illinois; I definitely think they will surprise some teams this year and it's because they will play hard night in and night out. Brad Underwood is the right man for that job. They are still a year away though from being considered a legitimate NCAAT team. They are simply too young and too inexperienced and the chemistry isn't there yet.

 

[HoosierfanJM]

Illinois entire complement of players over 6’6”:

1. Adonis De La Rosa: 7.6 ppg at Kent State last year. Has had weight issues throughout his college career and tore his ACL last March.
2. Giorgi Bezhanishvilli. Freshman composite ranked 320.
3. Anthony Higgs. Freshman composite ranked 379. Still hasn’t made it to campus because of grades.
4. Samba Kane. Freshman composite ranked 353. Just started practicing this week because of grades.

That is it!

They have some nice small players. They have a major problem with no solution whatsoever.

 

[Mgkcbb]

Ca$$ius Winston, Josh Langford, and Matt Mcquaid, as a trio, is nowhere near Trent Frazier, Ayo Dosunmu, and Kipper Nichols as a trio. They just arent even close to the same level. Is Ca$$ius a tremendous offensive player? Yes, of course he is. But that is far and away the worst perimeter defensive trio in the league at Michigan State and Langford and Mcquaid just arent good at basketball and are nowhere near any of those 3 Illinois players.

Langford had a player efficiency rating(PER) of 10.8 in conference play last season. Mcquaid had a PER of 9.6 in conference play. They won in spite of them, not because they are good.

People reference Langfords scoring double digits, well he attempted over 10 shots per game lol He had better of scored double digits.

10.1 field goal attempts per game fpr him came out to only 11.7 points per game.

Got even worse in conference play, 9.8 fga to only 10.6 points per game.


He was second on the team in field goal attempts in conference play, yet 5th in scoring. That is just a very telling stat about how bad at basketball he was last season. Mcquaid and Langford both shot 38% from the field in conference play, nobody else on MSU shot worse than 45% and nearly everyone else shot 50% or better.

On top of that, the 4 players who just had atrocious defensive ratings relativeto the overall teams defensive rating was Tum Tum(now graduated) and then the trio of Ca$$ius, Langford, and Mcquaid.

MSU is seriously just absolutely hopeless starting those 3 together on the perimeter defending. I'm trying to tell you, losing Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, and even Gavin Schilling as a backup is going to hurt that defense so much. Its going to expose that perimeter trio in a very bad way.

 

[Mgkcbb]

Illinois entire complement of players over 6’6”:

1. Adonis De La Rosa: 7.6 ppg at Kent State last year. Has had weight issues throughout his college career and tore his ACL last March.
2. Giorgi Bezhanishvilli. Freshman composite ranked 320.
3. Anthony Higgs. Freshman composite ranked 379. Still hasn’t made it to campus because of grades.
4. Samba Kane. Freshman composite ranked 353. Just started practicing this week because of grades.

That is it!

They have some nice small players. They have a major problem with no solution whatsoever.

Its a serious and glaring weakness, but I feel it will be overcome with their length and athleticism.

Purdue had the 10th ranked offense in the nation Hummels senior year with Travis Carroll starting at center. Michigan had one of the 10 best offenses in the entire KenPom era of roughly 20 years or so with Jordan Morgan starting at center.

Its not something that will doom an offense and De La Rosa is 7 foot and grabbed 8 boards per game his last season at Kent State so it seems like he will be good at doing exactly what they need him to do.

As far as the other bigs though(and you forgot 6'7 Tevian Jones iirc), it is worrisome.

 

[BoilerIron]

Ca$$ius Winston, Josh Langford, and Matt Mcquaid, as a trio, is nowhere near Trent Frazier, Ayo Dosunmu, and Kipper Nichols as a trio. They just arent even close to the same level. Is Ca$$ius a tremendous offensive player? Yes, of course he is. But that is far and away the worst perimeter defensive trio in the league at Michigan State and Langford and Mcquaid just arent good at basketball and are nowhere near any of those 3 Illinois players.

Langford had a player efficiency rating(PER) of 10.8 in conference play last season. Mcquaid had a PER of 9.6 in conference play. They won in spite of them, not because they are good.

People reference Langfords scoring double digits, well he attempted over 10 shots per game lol He had better of scored double digits.

10.1 field goal attempts per game fpr him came out to only 11.7 points per game.

Got even worse in conference play, 9.8 fga to only 10.6 points per game.


He was second on the team in field goal attempts in conference play, yet 5th in scoring. That is just a very telling stat about how bad at basketball he was last season. Mcquaid and Langford both shot 38% from the field in conference play, nobody else on MSU shot worse than 45% and nearly everyone else shot 50% or better.

On top of that, the 4 players who just had atrocious defensive ratings relativeto the overall teams defensive rating was Tum Tum(now graduated) and then the trio of Ca$$ius, Langford, and Mcquaid.

MSU is seriously just absolutely hopeless starting those 3 together on the perimeter defending. I'm trying to tell you, losing Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, and even Gavin Schilling as a backup is going to hurt that defense so much. Its going to expose that perimeter trio in a very bad way.

You are big on nRtg, right? Trent Frazier had a -1.2 rating for the season. Josh Langford had a +6.4 rating for the season.

Also, Nichols is a 4 at Illinois, so why are you including him in on the "Guard Trio" comparison? That's cherry picked. For example, I would rather have a trio of Winston, Langford, and Ward than a trio of Frazier, Ayo, and Nichols.

Your statements on who is "bad at basketball" have been hilarious this month.

 

[BoilerIron]

Its a serious and glaring weakness, but I feel it will be overcome with their length and athleticism.

Purdue had the 10th ranked offense in the nation Hummels senior year with Travis Carroll starting at center. Michigan had one of the 10 best offenses in the entire KenPom era of roughly 20 years or so with Jordan Morgan starting at center.

Its not something that will doom an offense and De La Rosa is 7 foot and grabbed 8 boards per game his last season at Kent State so it seems like he will be good at doing exactly what they need him to do.

As far as the other bigs though(and you forgot 6'7 Tevian Jones iirc), it is worrisome.

Jones is listed at 6'6" by all 3 recruiting services.

 

[HoosierfanJM]

Its a serious and glaring weakness, but I feel it will be overcome with their length and athleticism.

Purdue had the 10th ranked offense in the nation Hummels senior year with Travis Carroll starting at center. Michigan had one of the 10 best offenses in the entire KenPom era of roughly 20 years or so with Jordan Morgan starting at center.

Its not something that will doom an offense and De La Rosa is 7 foot and grabbed 8 boards per game his last season at Kent State so it seems like he will be good at doing exactly what they need him to do.

As far as the other bigs though(and you forgot 6'7 Tevian Jones iirc), it is worrisome.

Tevian Jones is a 6’6”, 200 lb guard.

De La Rosa is currently less than five months removed from ACL surgery. He has not resumed any basketball activities. If he were healthy he’d help a lot. He’s nowhere close.

Travis Carroll would be counted on for 30+ mpg on their current roster. He would be far and away their most prepared big. Hell, a senior Tim Priller would likely start for their current roster! Illinois is gonna have to guard players like Haarms, Haap, Morgan, Fernando, Murphy, Ward, etc with either Kipper Nichols or a completely unequipped freshman.

In my opinion? I find it hard to see how Ayo wants to be a part of the Underwood show after this season.

 

[Riptrain]

I'm sure Illinois won't be the doormat they were last year. Underwood gets his teams to play hard night in night out...But there is zero chance they finish a 20 game B1G schedule ahead of MSU

 

[Mgkcbb]

You are big on nRtg, right? Trent Frazier had a -1.2 rating for the season. Josh Langford had a +6.4 rating for the season.

Also, Nichols is a 4 at Illinois, so why are you including him in on the "Guard Trio" comparison? That's cherry picked. For example, I would rather have a trio of Winston, Langford, and Ward than a trio of Frazier, Ayo, and Nichols.

Your statements on who is "bad at basketball" have been hilarious this month.

First of all, Langford had a negative net rating in conference play(and has both of his years in college). Starting in the same lineup as Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson should make that impossible but he somehow found a way to do it anyways.


I'm big on net rating relative to the players and their teams defensive ratings. All defensive ratings are not created the same. Thats why all the stats guys compare a guys d rating to that of his teammates. From what I can find, this use is basically universal.

For example, Josh Langford played on a team that had a d rating of 99.4 in conference play, yet he still had a 108.1 defensive rating in conference play which just illustartes how terrible he was defensively. I wish I could find what his d rating was without Jaren Jackson on the floor to see how bad it was without superman coming to his rescue.

Now Trent Frazier played on a team that had a d rating of 110.4, yet his d rating in conference play was 112.9. So the much smaller disparity there is what matters more than the actual ratings.


And if you want to get technical on 6'6 Nichols being a 4 and 6'4 Langford being a 2, as if theres much difference at all in 2-4 in todays game, then simply substitute Feliz for Nichols or Jordan for Nichols and its still the same - Illinois guards are vastly superior to Michigan States trio.

 

[BoilerIron]

First of all, Langford had a negative net rating in conference play(and has both of his years in college). Starting in the same lineup as Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson should make that impossible but he somehow found a way to do it anyways.


I'm big on net rating relative to the players and their teams defensive ratings. All defensive ratings are not created the same. Thats why all the stats guys compare a guys d rating to that of his teammates. From what I can find, this use is basically universal.

For example, Josh Langford played on a team that had a d rating of 99.4 in conference play, yet he still had a 108.1 defensive rating in conference play which just illustartes how terrible he was defensively. I wish I could find what his d rating was without Jaren Jackson on the floor to see how bad it was without superman coming to his rescue.

Now Trent Frazier played on a team that had a d rating of 110.4, yet his d rating in conference play was 112.9. So the much smaller disparity there is what matters more than the actual ratings.


And if you want to get technical on 6'6 Nichols being a 4 and 6'4 Langford being a 2, as if theres much difference at all in 2-4 in todays game, then simply substitute Feliz for Nichols or Jordan for Nichols and its still the same - Illinois guards are vastly superior to Michigan States trio.

You know nothing about how Ayo or Feliz will adjust to the Big Ten.

Frazier had a -12 net rating in conference play. If forced to choose right now, I'm easily choosing the MSU guards over the Illinois guards and it wouldn't be a hard choice. Like another poster said, there is zero chance Illinois finishes ahead of MSU this year.

 

[Mgkcbb]

Tevian Jones is a 6’6”, 200 lb guard.

De La Rosa is currently less than five months removed from ACL surgery. He has not resumed any basketball activities. If he were healthy he’d help a lot. He’s nowhere close.

Travis Carroll would be counted on for 30+ mpg on their current roster. He would be far and away their most prepared big. Hell, a senior Tim Priller would likely start for their current roster! Illinois is gonna have to guard players like Haarms, Haap, Morgan, Fernando, Murphy, Ward, etc with either Kipper Nichols or a completely unequipped freshman.

In my opinion? I find it hard to see how Ayo wants to be a part of the Underwood show after this season.

Illinois roster has him listed at 6'7

https://fightingillini.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8089

But whatever those listed measurements often vary and are rarely accurate.

As far as defending the post, Georgi is 6'10 230, De La Rosa is 7'0 260. So theyll certainly have the weight to do that and rebound.

Not that it matters all that much, Nebraskas death lineup is on the smaller side up front and I still think theyll give teams fits. Its easier nowadays for smaller guys to get help and double bigger posts than it is for those bigger posts like Nick Ward have to turn around and defend ball screens out on the perimeter.


As a Hoosier fan I'm sure you realize this considering Indianas defense improved dramatically when Davis was out and Morgan slid over to the 5 from the 4.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

You know nothing about how Ayo or Feliz will adjust to the Big Ten.

Frazier had a -12 net rating in conference play. If forced to choose right now, I'm easily choosing the MSU guards over the Illinois guards and it wouldn't be a hard choice. Like another poster said, there is zero chance Illinois finishes ahead of MSU this year.

He's the same guy who instantly dismissed Romeo Langford yet all the sudden Ayo is going to set the world on fire? Playing on a much worse team? I don't put much stock into anything he says. He's already said that MSU will finish anywhere from 6th to 10th, potentially worse if Josh Langford plays. It's lunacy. Tom Izzo hasn't finished worse than 5th in the B10 in over a decade (especially when the B10 was much better) and hasn't missed the tournament in 21 years. That ain't changing this year either.

 

[Mgkcbb]

You know nothing about how Ayo or Feliz will adjust to the Big Ten.

Frazier had a -12 net rating in conference play. If forced to choose right now, I'm easily choosing the MSU guards over the Illinois guards and it wouldn't be a hard choice. Like another poster said, there is zero chance Illinois finishes ahead of MSU this year.

Without knowing how Feliz or Ayo will adjust to B1G play, its a very safe assumption to make that they wont be anywhere clpse to as bad at basketball as Langford has been his first two seasons in conference play.

Frazier also had a 16.2 PER. He is just flat out better than Langford.

And theres not a zero % chance Illinois finishes behind MSU, thats just someones opinion.

 

[BoilerIron]

Without knowing how Feliz or Ayo will adjust to B1G play, its a very safe assumption to make that they wont be anywhere clpse to as bad at basketball as Langford has been his first two seasons in conference play.

Frazier also had a 16.2 PER. He is just flat out better than Langford.

And theres not a zero % chance Illinois finishes behind MSU, thats just someones opinion.

So having a higher PER makes you better at basketball than someone who has a lower PER?

 

[Mgkcbb]

So having a higher PER makes you better at basketball than someone who has a lower PER?

Do you understand what the world also means? Or do you just enjoy being an insufferable, argumentative troll?

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

Without knowing how Feliz or Ayo will adjust to B1G play, its a very safe assumption to make that they wont be anywhere clpse to as bad at basketball as Langford has been his first two seasons in conference play.

Frazier also had a 16.2 PER. He is just flat out better than Langford.

And theres not a zero % chance Illinois finishes behind MSU, thats just someones opinion.

A safe assumption? Are you kidding me? You know what you're going to get out of Langford this year, a reliable scorer who will average anywhere from 12-15ppg with a bigger role who will shoot ~40% from three. No one is suggesting Langford is going to be an All-B10 guard but he's a proven 2 year starter in the B10. Ayo is a hot head freshman who hasn't proved ANYTHING yet. To say that is a safe assumption is mind-boggling. It's a worse assumption or opinion that Romeo won't be one of the five best freshman in the B10.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

Do you understand what the world also means? Or do you just enjoy being an insufferable, argumentative troll?

You're going to call him an insufferable troll because he's arguing against an opinion that a 4-14 B10 team last year will finish ahead of a team that went 16-2 in the B10 that returns 3 starters and a top 20 class? I mean Jesus Christ, what are you other than a person with unfounded opinions?

 

[BoilerIron]

Do you understand what the world also means? Or do you just enjoy being an insufferable, argumentative troll?

I'm just trying to see how you come to the conclusions you do. You are the only one making troll statements (ie. Illinois is better than MSU).

 

[arcb102000]

MGK is entitled to his opinions. He tries to back them up with stats. He may/may not be correct. Here's the point: time will demonstrate whether his predictions turn out to be true or not.

Sometimes the "obvious" turns out not to be correct. People expected a lot more out of MSU football a short time ago but they were horrid. Bad seasons happen.

I do not know what will happen with either Illinois or MSU. However, while the predictions are outliers, they may turn out to have far more insight than are being credited today. We'll see. But giving him grief seems unwarranted.

 

[HoosierfanJM]

Illinois roster has him listed at 6'7

https://fightingillini.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8089

But whatever those listed measurements often vary and are rarely accurate.

As far as defending the post, Georgi is 6'10 230, De La Rosa is 7'0 260. So theyll certainly have the weight to do that and rebound.

Not that it matters all that much, Nebraskas death lineup is on the smaller side up front and I still think theyll give teams fits. Its easier nowadays for smaller guys to get help and double bigger posts than it is for those bigger posts like Nick Ward have to turn around and defend ball screens out on the perimeter.


As a Hoosier fan I'm sure you realize this considering Indianas defense improved dramatically when Davis was out and Morgan slid over to the 5 from the 4.

I completely agree with you that it takes more than height and weight to defend the post and provide interior scoring.

My point is that this freshman Giorgi is absolutely, in every way NOT the guy that can do it! In fact, he appears to be far less than B1G caliber, even as a backup. I know you like stats (and that's a good thing by me):
This guy Giorgi averaged 8.4 ppg and 1.7 Rebounds per game his senior year of high school. That figure is a direct pull from his stats, and that is NOT good. At all.

De La Rosa had major knee surgery (ACL) less than five months ago. He would help, some. He cannot play anytime soon; probably can't even resume any kind of basketball activities until after the new year.

Their other two bigs are freshmen in the 300's who have yet to be academically cleared.

Leron Black opted to turn pro, Michael Finke and Greg Eboigbodin transferred, and Matic Vesel left the country. They are in deep doodoo even with some potential at the guard spots.

 

[Mgkcbb]

I'm just trying to see how you come to the conclusions you do. You are the only one making troll statements (ie. Illinois is better than MSU).

Its not a troll statement. MSU's value was primarily JJJ and Miles Bridges last year.

Nick Ward played in less than 20 minutes in 10 of MSUs last 11 games.

This idea that Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, Josh Langford, and Matt Mcquaid are just nota better lineup than what Illinois can trot out there.

It actually feels like a very easy layup of a point to make when you consider 3 of those players cant defend at all and the other lost playing time because he was getting killed in ball screens.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

MGK is entitled to his opinions. He tries to back them up with stats. Hr may/may not be correct. Here's the point: time will demonstrate whether his predictions turn out to be true or not.

Sometimes the "obvious" turns out not to be correct. People expected a lot more out of MSU football a short time ago but they were horrid. Bad seasons happen.

I do not know what will happen with either Illinois or MSU. However, while the predictions are outliers, they may turn out to have far more insight than are being credited today. We'll see. But giving him grief seems unwarranted.

That's perfectly fine to have an opinion just like it's perfectly fine to disagree with an opinion especially when it isn't properly formed. A statement such as:

"Without knowing how Feliz or Ayo will adjust to B1G play, its a very safe assumption to make that they wont be anywhere clpse to as bad at basketball as Langford has been his first two seasons in conference play"

That's purely an opinion that isn't formed on any merit whatsoever. And remember, MGK is the one who called BoilerIron and insufferable troll, not vice versa. It's a two way street.

 

[BoilerIron]

Its not a troll statement. MSU's value was primarily JJJ and Miles Bridges last year.

Nick Ward played in less than 20 minutes in 10 of MSUs last 11 games.

This idea that Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, Josh Langford, and Matt Mcquaid are just nota better lineup than what Illinois can trot out there.

It actually feels like a very easy layup of a point to make when you consider 3 of those players cant defend at all and the other lost playing time because he was getting killed in ball screens.

If it's a layup, do you want to make a ban bet on it? I know how much you would like to get me off this board... seems like a fairly easy way to do it if this is such a layup. I'd gladly settle for an avatar bet if you aren't confident enough to do a ban bet.

 

[HoosierfanJM]

If it's a layup, do you want to make a ban bet on it? I know how much you would like to get me off this board... seems like a fairly easy way to do it if this is such a layup. I'd gladly settle for an avatar bet if you aren't confident enough to do a ban bet.

Feels like an avatar bet loss by Mgkcbb could consist of a high-flying picture of two guys named Langford.

Just saying.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

Feels like an avatar bet loss by Mgkcbb could consist of a high-flying picture of two guys named Langford.

Just saying.

I would bet any monetary amount or earthly possession that Michigan State not only finishes ahead of Illinois in the B10, but a) MSU wins at least 13 conference games and b) Illinois finishes below .500 in the B10.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

This idea that Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, Josh Langford, and Matt Mcquaid are just nota better lineup than what Illinois can trot out there.

A lineup of those four is at minimum 6 B10 wins better than any lineup Illinois can put on the court next year and that's not including guys like Xavier Tillman, Marcus Bingham, Aaron Henry, Kenny Goins, or Gabe Brown who could all be the 5th player in said lineup. Illinois has ZERO proven or reliable front court players next year. Not one. The only one you could consider reliable isn't going to be healthy until half way through the season.

 

[cheeseman18]

So having a higher PER makes you better at basketball than someone who has a lower PER?

Of course. Duh! That's why Nojel Eastern is going to be awesome, because he has a PER of 10.8......wait.....guess not. He must suck. And to be clear, I'm not putting down Eastern, I think he'll be good this year. All I'm saying is that PER is flimsy at best. I love stats more than most, but they don't always tell the whole story.

 

[mathboy]

Mkg has an interesting perspective on next season. Intuitively, I find it hard to believe that Illinois will be better than MSU, but he is welcome to his opinion. ...and he is welcome to it without name calling, IMHO.

My take is that Izzy is slipping a bit. He has not met expectation since the Valentine years. You remember Valentine, right? Player of the year and MSU gets blown out in their first tourney game, right? Now Izzy has amassed an enormous pile of high ranked high school players, plus some good veterans. Can he make them play as a team?

MKG might be right. That would be a good lesson in keeping an open mind, wouldn’t it? I’d like it! It would certainly quiet the MSU PC Police that roam these boards.

 

[BoilerIron]

Mkg has an interesting perspective on next season. Intuitively, I find it hard to believe that Illinois will be better than MSU, but he is welcome to his opinion. ...and he is welcome to it without name calling, IMHO.

My take is that Izzy is slipping a bit. He has not met expectation since the Valentine years. You remember Valentine, right? Player of the year and MSU gets blown out in their first tourney game, right? Now Izzy has amassed an enormous pile of high ranked high school players, plus some good veterans. Can he make them play as a team?

MKG might be right. That would be a good lesson in keeping an open mind, wouldn’t it? I’d like it! It would certainly quiet the MSU PC Police that roam these boards.

I don't think anyone called him names. I think most of us just gave reasons why we think his opinion is so far off.

 

[mathboy]

A lineup of those four is at minimum 6 B10 wins better than any lineup Illinois can put on the court next year and that's not including guys like Xavier Tillman, Marcus Bingham, Aaron Henry, Kenny Goins, or Gabe Brown who could all be the 5th player in said lineup. Illinois has ZERO proven or reliable front court players next year. Not one. The only one you could consider reliable isn't going to be healthy until half way through the season.

Like you, I think MSU pounds it inside on Illinois, and fouls out everybody, while shooting 70% from under the basket.

I still think the top four spots in the BIG will be UM, MSU, Purdue, and Indiana.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

Like you, I think MSU pounds it inside on Illinois, and fouls out everybody, while shooting 70% from under the basket.

I still think the top four spots in the BIG will be UM, MSU, Purdue, and Indiana.

I think MSU and UM are the clear two best teams in the conference. If I had to categorize the B10 into tiers

Tier 1
MSU
UM

Tier 2---and these teams could flop position by the night next year and teams I see making the tournament and/or firmly on the bubble
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Maryland
Indiana
Purdue
Ohio State

Tier 3
Iowa
Penn State
Minnesota

Tier 4
Illinois
Northwestern
Rutgers

 

[Mgkcbb]

I completely agree with you that it takes more than height and weight to defend the post and provide interior scoring.

My point is that this freshman Giorgi is absolutely, in every way NOT the guy that can do it! In fact, he appears to be far less than B1G caliber, even as a backup. I know you like stats (and that's a good thing by me):
This guy Giorgi averaged 8.4 ppg and 1.7 Rebounds per game his senior year of high school. That figure is a direct pull from his stats, and that is NOT good. At all.

De La Rosa had major knee surgery (ACL) less than five months ago. He would help, some. He cannot play anytime soon; probably can't even resume any kind of basketball activities until after the new year.

Their other two bigs are freshmen in the 300's who have yet to be academically cleared.

Leron Black opted to turn pro, Michael Finke and Greg Eboigbodin transferred, and Matic Vesel left the country. They are in deep doodoo even with some potential at the guard spots.

I mean you are listing legitimate concerns with their big men, but it honestly doesnt really sway me because

1. I already knew their bigs would not be the focal point of the team and be asked to carry a very light load
2. Ive already found examples of good teams and great offenses where bigs were similarly lacking.

 

[Mgkcbb]

Even if you arent a believer in Illinois like myself

Just off the top of my head:

Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana all for sure have better starting lineups than Michigan State. So MSU would need heavy contributions from their freshman class to even sneak into the top 4 of the conference.

I genuinely believe they are drawing dead to finish in the top 4. They really arent likely to finish even in the top 7 in my opinion. They certainly have no chance whatsoever to win the conference with their obvious defensive deficiencies.

 

[Mgkcbb]

If it's a layup, do you want to make a ban bet on it? I know how much you would like to get me off this board... seems like a fairly easy way to do it if this is such a layup. I'd gladly settle for an avatar bet if you aren't confident enough to do a ban bet.

Yeah lets do an avatar bet.

Month long lets say.

I have Illinois as more wins in conference play, you have Michigan State.

If they both win the same amount its a push.

 

[BoilerIron]

Yeah lets do an avatar bet.

Month long lets say.

I have Illinois as more wins in conference play, you have Michigan State.

If they both win the same amount its a push.

Deal

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

Even if you arent a believer in Illinois like myself

Just off the top of my head:

Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana all for sure have better starting lineups than Michigan State. So MSU would need heavy contributions from their freshman class to even sneak into the top 4 of the conference.

I genuinely believe they are drawing dead to finish in the top 4. They really arent likely to finish even in the top 7 in my opinion. They certainly have no chance whatsoever to win the conference with their obvious defensive deficiencies.

You act like

A) There’s zero chance of improvement from 3 returning starters who have a combined 154 starts between them.

B) The best coach in the B10 can’t or won’t be able to game plan around his team.

Not one of the teams you listed has a better starting lineup than MSU because not one of those teams have a starting lineup that will be collectively as experienced and as talented as MSU. That’s your opinion and your opinion isn’t based on anything of merit. Name one team in the B10 outside Michigan State who returns 3 double digit scoring starters? It ain’t Purdue. It ain’t Indiana. It ain’t Maryland. It ain’t Wisconsin. It ain’t Michigan. Nebraska is the only team who returns 3 double digit starters, they didn’t make the tournament.

I applaud you for keep such a straight face this entire time, doubling and tripling down while continuously offering some of the worst takes I’ve ever seen on a message board. Saying a team who is going to be a consensus top 15 team to start the year won’t finish in the top half of their conference (a conference that isn’t all that great to begin with) is an awful take. I understand it’s your opinion but it’s an unfounded opinion based on analytics that won’t translate to next year. I could see a scenario where a team like Michigan or an ultra-talented, but young Maryland team finishes ahead of MSU, but to finish outside the top 7 with the kind of conviction you have is laughable.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

I mean you are listing legitimate concerns with their big men, but it honestly doesnt really sway me because

1. I already knew their bigs would not be the focal point of the team and be asked to carry a very light load
2. Ive already found examples of good teams and great offenses where bigs were similarly lacking.

Their bigs still have to guard somebody don’t they? Nick Ward will eat alive the interior of the Illini defense. And if MSU is so bad defensively like you think they are, go 3-2, and Illinois doesn’t have a prayer. Trent Frazier and Kipper Nichols are good guards. But they aren’t elite guards or even all-B10 caliber guards. Ayo is a talented player, but he’s a freshman no doubt but Illinois isn’t going to be able to run an offense with a legitimate interior threat. This is elementary level stuff here. I understand you’re analytics guy, but games aren’t won and loss on computers. Give me Tom Izzo and a collection of experienced players who have played at a high level together for a long time any day of the week.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Hey I know: WHO CARES!!??

 

[mathboy]

I think MSU and UM are the clear two best teams in the conference. If I had to categorize the B10 into tiers

Tier 1
MSU
UM

Tier 2---and these teams could flop position by the night next year and teams I see making the tournament and/or firmly on the bubble
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Maryland
Indiana
Purdue
Ohio State

Tier 3
Iowa
Penn State
Minnesota

Tier 4
Illinois
Northwestern
Rutgers

Well, the BIG is like a box of chocolates... We won't know what we get until the season starts.