Now that we have seen a little of the Boilers, what do you see the chances of Purdue being undefeated going into conference play? At Pitt, Butler in "neutral" court, Vandy, and New Mexico are no slouches. Purdue can certainly stub their toe with one of those. I follow Pitt (wife is a Pitt grad) and they are much improved this year. Vandy appears to match up well against Purdue. However, I'm an optimist. Before the season started, I thought we had a decent chance to yield a 1-loss non-conference schedule, with a 50/50 chance of 2 losses. Am I crazy to think that now it appears more like a good chance for zero losses with 50/50 chance of 1 loss?
Will Purdue be 13-0 when conference play begins?
- Thread starter boilernuke
- Start date
Yes you are crazy.
If you give a 50/50 chance of 1 loss then you cannot think "it appears MORE like a good chance for zero losses." Best you can think is that it is 50/50 as well and that only if there is a zero chance of losing more than 1.
<TIC>!!!
I still think that Purdue has less than a 50% chance of going undefeated in the non-conference. Vandy looks very tough, but being at home should help. Butler has been a thorn in Purdue's side for years. Going on the road and beating Pitt just may be the biggest challenge of all. There is nothing in Purdue's play so far that makes me think that an undefeated non-conference schedule is unattainable, but it certainly won't be easily attainable.
It's certainly possible..
I'll be happy with avoiding all the bad losses and winning 2 of 3 against Pitt, Butler and Vandy
I'll be happy with avoiding all the bad losses and winning 2 of 3 against Pitt, Butler and Vandy
If we do we will be a top 10 team in the rankings. I think the toughest game is Vandy. They are like looking in the mirror. Good coaching, big 7 footers, long shooters. Since this is a home game I am going to give us the edge. I think that yes, we can be 13-0. Just have to play every game like it is the most important game of the year and not have an off night. Do-able, but not easy.
If you offered me 12-1 right now I'd take it in a heartbeat. Pitt, Butler, and Vandy will all be tough games. New Mexico won't be easy either. Some good tests coming up.
25% chance 13-0
45% chance 12-1
25% chance 11-2
5% chance 10-3
Something like that
45% chance 12-1
25% chance 11-2
5% chance 10-3
Something like that
Even with as much kool-aid as I have tried to imbibe this season, unfortunately old habits die hard and the "manage your expectations" side of me thinks 2 losses is more probable than zero in the non-conference with 1 loss and 3 losses with almost equal probability. The team certainly passes the eye test and all the intangibles seem to be in place, but all those years of heart crushing missed expectations in BB and FB have created this damn internal defense mechanism that stifles unbridled optimism. That said, I will be rooting hard for the team at Pitt when I am at the game on Tues. BTFU!
If the non con excites you.
Take a look at January and get back to me.
From the official PurdueSports site:
01/02/16 vs. Iowa * West Lafayette, Ind. 6:00 p.m. ET
01/07/16 vs. Michigan * West Lafayette, Ind. 7 / 9 PM ET
01/10/16 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill. 2 / 6 PM ET
01/13/16 vs. Penn State * West Lafayette, Ind. 8:30 p.m. ET
01/18/16 at Rutgers * Piscataway, N.J. 7:00 p.m. ET
01/21/16 vs. Ohio State * West Lafayette, Ind. 9:00 p.m. ET
01/24/16 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa 1:00 p.m. ET
01/27/16 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, Minn. 9:00 p.m. ET
01/30/16 vs. Nebraska * West Lafayette, Ind. 4:30 p.m. ET
Of course this doesn't include the conference opener @ Wisconsin in December....not sure I like to see Purdue open up in the Kohl Center, the house that Bo built, but the Boilers have to play it sometime. @ Maryland is the next following game on February 6.
According to kenpom ratings the probability of 13-0 is just under 20%. The Pitt game is a coin flip and we are essentially 2:1 favorites in the Butler and Vandy games, 7:1 against NM, and heavy favorites in the other 4.
The mean predicted outcome is roughly 11.6 wins and 1.4 losses.
The mean predicted outcome is roughly 11.6 wins and 1.4 losses.
I like our chances in every one of those January games. Now February, that's a different story!
I'm going to say 1 loss is most likely followed by 2 losses and least likely is undefeated. @ Pitt and the Vandy game worry me a lot.
I think we go 13-0 pre-conference, with 1 loss in January (Iowa or at the Barn). We will be favored in every game up until Feb.
Seems like we are likely to have one game where we are stone cold. I expect we will lose one.
I'm on the same page (maybe because of bad memories) but I don't think 11-2 would be a major disappointment. The team will have plenty more opportunities for big wins in conference so as long as they get one of the three tough games (the road win at Pitt would be nice to bank), it'd be fine.
Of course I hope I'm wrong, it's just a pretty lofty thing to expect from college kids to stay consistent enough to go 13-0 or even 12-1.
Yeesh this thread has some unreasonable expectations. I agree with you - expecting 0 or 1 loss is tough. At the end of the day, Purdue still is playing with some young players.
We have 2 very tough games on our schedule - one at home, but with students on break right before Christmas - and one at a neutral site game, which is basically a road game with Purdue playing in an event with mostly IU fans present.
Then you have our first road game in a hostile environment against a decent enough team at Pitt.
It wouldn't be surprising if we lost all or just won 1 of those. I would be a bit bummed, but none would be bad losses.
Most importantly, this team needs to take care of its business and win the games they should win, which was its biggest issue last year at this time. Losing in the non-conference portion isn't really a terrible thing and can be very good learning experiences setting up a successful conference run. How many times has Michigan State started sluggish to go on and dominate in Big Ten play?
Vandy will be our biggest test.
Sure Pitt is the first real road game. But we aren't relying on freshmen and the Pitt environment won't be anything like IU or MSU. The team will be focused and know what to expect. Our size and depth will wear them down.
Butler is sound fundamentally but no match for our size and depth. We are due for a win in that thing anyway. I am not too worried about it.
Vandy has our size and depth however and knows us from last year. They are much improved and will not be shaken by being in Mackey as you said, the students will be gone.
I don't know if we go unscathed in the OCC. But this is a veteran team with a lot of depth to cover up an off night from a player or two.
I think we do go into B1G undefeated and top 10. The difference I see against Vandy will be our bench. They are deeper. But with guys like Stephens, Mathias and AJ or Haas coming in off the bench, I see us having an advantage.
Ibodel, I would not be surprised to see your scenario to play out BUT, the other spectrum could easily play out also. After growing up and watching Purdue bball for 55+ years including the 1969 runner-ups and the 1980 FF, I see a very special group of mature and chemistry laden players. I really think we could lose no more than 3-4 games up to the tournament. This assumes we don't get the fat head, key injuries, and we continue to improve. This team is deep and has no major flaws. I am going out on a limb as I see a "special" season coming (I am not saying a FF and that is possible-it takes some luck-but for sure a higher ranking than we have seen in a long time). Will I jump off of a cliff if it doesn't happen, no , because the "special" is gonna happen!
But if you look at our wins so far, they are an average of 123% victories. So we could be outscored in as many as 3 non-conference games, as long as we don't count the losses by less than 93%, and still count them as victories based on overall average win percentages. After all, Kentucky did it to Notre Dame in a loss recorded as a win in the record books from 1937.
Sincerely,
FinallyABoilerBlahBlahBlah
I'm not disagreeing with you - there are a lot of things to like about this team. However, to build up these off the charts expectations is a bit much, mainly because I know it will lead to people having "sky is falling" melt downs on here and everything becomes a big disappointment to them.
At the end of the day, have we looked good so far? Yes. Have we played anyone that great? No.
Just as a point of reference, last year on January 5 in the top 25, three teams were undefeated. And 8 teams had 1 loss (and those included some teams with weak non-conference schedules).
And like I said, losing in the non-conference portion of the season is not a bad thing. You can learn a lot from it - doesn't mean you need to lose 4-5 times to learn something. But losses can really be important for young players in particular to have things sink in for them.
But only one player on our rotation hasn't been through an entire season in the B1G.
If we were young, I would agree.
If this team is top 10 like many here believe. With our experience and looking at the schedule. We should win all of these games, with Vandy being the one game we may not be favored in.
There is no need to lose to learn. We lost those games last year and hopefully the lesson has been learned already.
I bet Painter and the team want to win every game.
Vandy is a team that's loaded with talent, has very good coaching, and is on a roll....to the Final Four. Either they or Butler can and may, beat the Boilers if the black and gold slip up.
Vandy is good but at what position are they better than PU.
I like our post more, I like our shooters more, our guards are bigger and just as quick, they have some good shooters but so do we. CS will have his hands full with their four. He's big and athletic. He's the only guy that worries me. And we're at home. That's the deal breaker. Butler we handle. Pitt at Pitt will be tough. Don't know about NM. I see one loss at most.
But this is exactly my point: "If this team is a top 10 like many here believe" - I mean that's great that people think we are, but when was the last time we beat a top 15 team? We beat a few teams ranked 20-25 last year.
To have these expectations that we're a top 10 team, we should go through our non-conference schedule with 0 or 1 loss - it's just hyping things up for massive disappointment and complaining on this forum.
Look, I really love this team, I've been the first to defend Painter on this forum, etc. - I'm certainly not trying to be negative here by any means. But I also know that yeah, we've looked good so far - but we haven't played anyone that great. Yeah, we beat Florida pretty well but I hardly came away from that thinking "wow, we beat a really good team there"....Florida has some talented guys, but they didn't play very well as a team.
And quite frankly, the big problem with this team right now is turnovers - which is a problem that can lead to a loss against anyone on our schedule. So we still have quite a bit to prove.
To build up high expectations after just a few games is a recipe for disaster. I'm hardly saying the team wants to lose a game or 2, I'm just saying it's ok for us to lose and things will still be ok because this forum will turn into "the sky is falling" when we do.
Of course it's not going to hurt us to lose a game in December. But to say the board will complain if we do is about as likely as us not losing a game according to your logic.
I also see you didn't refute the fact that we are not a young team. We aren't and the lesson you seem to think will help us did indeed happen last season.
The game against Florida was a decent barometer. We didn't just win that game. We won handily against the type of team that many predicted would give us fits.
So if you take the facts from the Florida game and use them to predict how we will do against a team that pushed us to the final minutes. One can see how many here feel we will win those games as well.
I am not trying to argue with you here. But you seem to have an opinion that has very little if any evidence to back it up. At the same time you are attacking those on this board for having an opinion that isn't the same as yours, yet are based on more things we know then what your opinion is based on.
Sure it's hard to win all games in the occ. But this team is not young. This team is experienced. This team is deep and balanced. This team has had the letdowns that trio up teams early in the season last year. With all of those points and by looking at the games we have left. I don't think it is that far fetched to think this team can will them all. There just isn't anything so far this year that points to a hiccup other then the thought that it could happen. We have had a couple of games where turnovers were high. But there are more games where they weren't. Most of those turnovers also came from one or two guys, namely Biggie, who may be trying to do too much at times. He has also shown to be a hard worker and a self starter who wants to improve. I think he will be fine.
The lesson is see is that it's okay to have games where you turn the ball over a lot if you still play well enough to win by 20. The players learn what they can't do and work to improve. If that's the only you are basing your view that it will be good to lose on. I just don't see a lot of support coming from the rest of us who see how well this team can survive an off night from a player or two because of our balanced depth.
Hope you enjoy you holiday.
Agreed. Typically a great team will also lose an unexpected game along the way. This board will implode. I just wanted to put my neck out and vote-we will be special-one game at a time.
I don't see this board imploding. Especially if we lose to a good team.
The only people I see imploded are the ones calling for Painters job after the Gardner Webb game.
Haven't seen those guys in quite some time.
The only people I see imploded are the ones calling for Painters job after the Gardner Webb game.
Haven't seen those guys in quite some time.
I question your soberness if you think this board will not complain when we lose.
I wouldn't really say we're super experienced and not young. We're in-between. For example, point guard is one of the most important positions in terms of running a game. The PG position in a motion offense isn't AS critical, but we're playing with a "senior" who is new to the team and a true sophomore who played some last year, but not in a full capacity. Then you have another true freshman, while very talented, is still a true freshman with Swanigan - who has shown so far to be a typical freshman big guy with turnovers. Mathias and Edwards are both true sophomores - experienced from last year, but still sophomores. Technically, a team with just 2 true seniors (with Hill as a 3rd but playing his first season) is not really considered "veteran" status. So is this team a bunch of freshmen? No, but 3 of our players at any (mostly) given time are true freshmen/sophomores (or a "new" senior).
Was the game against Florida a decent barometer? Sure. And yes did people say this would be a test? Sure. But watching that game made it very clear that Florida was not truly that test. Like I said, they have some very talented individual players and I think they'll be pretty good by the latter part of the season, but right now they did not play that well together. Also, while we've certainly passed all of our tests, there have been red flags: turnovers, offensive dry spells, etc. Anything super drastic? No, but having a game with excessive turnovers and some offensive dry spells can end in a loss against a good...or bad team.
I'm not basing my opinion on "nothing" (I also don't know how you can say people are basing their opinion of being a top 10 team on anything since we have not played a top 25 team....and we have not beaten a top 15-20 team in 2 years?). We are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten statistically in turnovers right now. That's not basing an opinion on nothing - one game with excessive turnovers can easily lead to a loss, even if you play well in other facets of the game.
And I'm certainly not "attacking" anybody. And when on earth have I said "I hope we lose a game!" I didn't - I said I'm not going to be bummed or upset if we do because I certainly think we can learn from those situations. But the point is I am not going to set myself up for disappointment telling myself we're going to go undefeated when we play some very good teams. Like I said, we haven't played a top 25 team this year, we haven't beaten a top 20 team in quite some time, etc. I'd rather see us prove we belong than hype ourselves (see IU). If that makes me a bad, attacking, baseless fan - so be it.
I rather go 13-0 to end the season, than 13-0 to start the season
You can probably add Butler to those 2. I doubt that would turn out to be a bad loss.
Yep - our team playing this year is:
Freshmen: Swanigan, Cline, Taylor (redshirt)
Sophomores: Mathias, Edwards, Thompson, Haas
Juniors: Stephens
Seniors: Davis, Hammons, Hill* (obviously not a 4 year player on this team though)
So of our current 'playing' roster, 7 of the 11 are underclassmen.
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