It’s cold outside. There’s no football on today. And frankly, there’s no good college basketball on today. So here I sit, contemplating this season with 35 days until Selection Sunday. And specifically, questions in my head surround the defense. But – positive vibes only. I’m not here to beat any sort of dead horse. Rather, I’m here to bring hope to what the dreaded numbers say.
Now. Full disclosure. I’m a KenPom apologetic. But I am aware it is not the end all be all. However, I will attempt to talk myself off a cliff here (come along for the ride) to understand why hope is not undone for this team.
To start – let’s remember that AdjO and AdjD numbers are extrapolated to 100 possessions Therefore, the numbers can be deceiving. Let’s begin by comparing Purdue with a similar programs in terms of rankings and cleanliness of the programs – Auburn and Kentucky.
What this means is that if Purdue was to play the most average NCAA team on a neutral court (at Purdue’s tempo of 67 possessions) – we can expect the final score to be 84-67.
If Auburn was to turn around and play this exact same average team at their tempo (70 possessions) – we can expect the final score to be 81-63.
If Kentucky was to turn around and play this exact same average team at their tempo (69.3 possessions) – we can expect the final score to be 82-62.
If you notice what I notice – not a lot of difference in margin of victory. Purdue wins by 17, Auburn by 18, and Kentucky by 20. In comparing these three teams, no team is a single possession better or worse than the other.
The numbers can be deceiving when you stretch them out to 100 possessions, especially when you play as slow as Purdue. This is why Purdue’s offense isn’t particularly sexy when you look at the bottom line of ESPN, but impressive when you see it in person. We play slow (#220 in tempo). But in our last 5 games (all with tempos 66 or under), we’ve put up over 80 points.
One number that people (I am one of these people) point to is the AdjD ranking. Now, defense is important. But the ranking is deceptive, because we have to look at what the rankings tell us.
Back to our “playing the average NCAA team” stuff. Suppose that on average, we gave up one less 3 pointer, or just got a block instead of an and-1. That means instead of letting our average opponent score 67 points, they only score 64 points. That would mean that our AdjD number drops from 99.3 to 94.8. (I used the precise scores here, not rounded). And an AdjD of 94.8 would move us to #45. That’s from a single stop on a 3-point play. Jumping 58 spots.
Now. Suppose on average, we had one less 3 pointer go in on offense. So let’s assume that 3 point play went the other direction. That would drop us from #1 in AdjO to *checks notes* umm… #2. At 121.4. Behind only Gonzaga.
Heck, two missed 3-pointers would keep us in the top 10. Three missed 3’s would put us on the same level as Michigan State and just ahead of Tennessee. This is what lets us shoot 27% from 3 against Michigan and still win.
All that to say this. Our offense is stupid good. Like, stupid good. There is so much bunching of teams around where we are defensively that the rankings don’t tell the whole story.
Another note on our defense. Purdue has played 4 games against teams in the top 10 in AdjO. We are 4-0 in those games. We’ve played 7 against the top 25 in AdjO - we are 7-0 And 8-0 against the top 50.
As I said, sometimes the best defense is a good offense. So let me gush over our offense for a second.
We currently have 8 rotation players shooting over 40% from 3. 8 of them. Gracious.
We have 5 players who average 40% or greater from 3 on over 1.5 attempts per game. Gonzaga has 2 of those. Auburn has 1 of those. Kansas has 2 of those. Baylor has 1 of those. Duke has 2 of those. We have 5.
And if that’s not working, we have 2 guys inside that are shooting over 57% from 2. We have a lottery pick going for 52% inside. Again, of players averaging 1.5 2-point attempts, we have 3 players over 60% and 6 over 50% (EHJ is at 49%, so almost 7 players).
Back in 2019, on Feb. 5 our defense was also a tad suspect. We were ranked 66 with a AdjD of 97.2. A month later (or on Selection Sunday I should say), we had cut our ranking in half to 30 and AdjD to 95.0.
And maybe I’m wrong, but I do think that’s the difference between offense and defense. If your offense sucks, it’s probably going to keep on sucking. Like if you can’t shoot the ball or if your center is 6’8”, those are tough to fix in the span of a month. But if effort and concentration are lacking, we can work with that. After all, this nearly-identical personnel had an AdjD of 91.7 a year ago to date. So we know they are capable.
And I do think most of our defensive issues are effort and concentration related. Someone else mentioned this in another thread, but it’s almost like our guys can get bored with a big lead. We held OSU to 32 points in the first 26 minutes and were up 20. Whether people like it or not, we held Iowa to 0.70 points per possession in the first half of our first game with them. We held Illinois – a team that averages 1.12 points per possession (at mostly not full-strength) – to 1.04 at full strength in their home arena. We’ve seen that this team is 100% capable when it locks in.
I’m Purdue ride-or-die. I think our offense can and will carry us come March. But I also believe that defense is a ship that can be righted and will be righted. The next few weeks will tell. We don’t play any stellar offenses, but we play a number of competent defenses (again – according to the metrics).
Finally – remember we have had a target on our back all year – much more than we are used to. When we go into the RAC, or into Assembly Hall, we are getting these teams best shot. They come in guns-a-blazing and absolutely nothing to lose. Our guys getting this night after night is going to pay dividends come March.
Ever grateful, ever true. If you sing it, act like it. Boiler up.
P.S. - EvanMiya has our defense at only 50th.
Now. Full disclosure. I’m a KenPom apologetic. But I am aware it is not the end all be all. However, I will attempt to talk myself off a cliff here (come along for the ride) to understand why hope is not undone for this team.
To start – let’s remember that AdjO and AdjD numbers are extrapolated to 100 possessions Therefore, the numbers can be deceiving. Let’s begin by comparing Purdue with a similar programs in terms of rankings and cleanliness of the programs – Auburn and Kentucky.
AdjEM | AdjO | AdjD | |
| Purdue | 26.62 (5) | 125.9 (1) | 99.3 (103) |
| Auburn | 26.38 (8) | 116.4 (14) | 90.0 (14) |
| Kentucky | 28.91 (3) | 118.3 (5) | 89.3 (11) |
What this means is that if Purdue was to play the most average NCAA team on a neutral court (at Purdue’s tempo of 67 possessions) – we can expect the final score to be 84-67.
If Auburn was to turn around and play this exact same average team at their tempo (70 possessions) – we can expect the final score to be 81-63.
If Kentucky was to turn around and play this exact same average team at their tempo (69.3 possessions) – we can expect the final score to be 82-62.
If you notice what I notice – not a lot of difference in margin of victory. Purdue wins by 17, Auburn by 18, and Kentucky by 20. In comparing these three teams, no team is a single possession better or worse than the other.
The numbers can be deceiving when you stretch them out to 100 possessions, especially when you play as slow as Purdue. This is why Purdue’s offense isn’t particularly sexy when you look at the bottom line of ESPN, but impressive when you see it in person. We play slow (#220 in tempo). But in our last 5 games (all with tempos 66 or under), we’ve put up over 80 points.
One number that people (I am one of these people) point to is the AdjD ranking. Now, defense is important. But the ranking is deceptive, because we have to look at what the rankings tell us.
Back to our “playing the average NCAA team” stuff. Suppose that on average, we gave up one less 3 pointer, or just got a block instead of an and-1. That means instead of letting our average opponent score 67 points, they only score 64 points. That would mean that our AdjD number drops from 99.3 to 94.8. (I used the precise scores here, not rounded). And an AdjD of 94.8 would move us to #45. That’s from a single stop on a 3-point play. Jumping 58 spots.
Now. Suppose on average, we had one less 3 pointer go in on offense. So let’s assume that 3 point play went the other direction. That would drop us from #1 in AdjO to *checks notes* umm… #2. At 121.4. Behind only Gonzaga.
Heck, two missed 3-pointers would keep us in the top 10. Three missed 3’s would put us on the same level as Michigan State and just ahead of Tennessee. This is what lets us shoot 27% from 3 against Michigan and still win.
All that to say this. Our offense is stupid good. Like, stupid good. There is so much bunching of teams around where we are defensively that the rankings don’t tell the whole story.
Another note on our defense. Purdue has played 4 games against teams in the top 10 in AdjO. We are 4-0 in those games. We’ve played 7 against the top 25 in AdjO - we are 7-0 And 8-0 against the top 50.
As I said, sometimes the best defense is a good offense. So let me gush over our offense for a second.
We currently have 8 rotation players shooting over 40% from 3. 8 of them. Gracious.
We have 5 players who average 40% or greater from 3 on over 1.5 attempts per game. Gonzaga has 2 of those. Auburn has 1 of those. Kansas has 2 of those. Baylor has 1 of those. Duke has 2 of those. We have 5.
And if that’s not working, we have 2 guys inside that are shooting over 57% from 2. We have a lottery pick going for 52% inside. Again, of players averaging 1.5 2-point attempts, we have 3 players over 60% and 6 over 50% (EHJ is at 49%, so almost 7 players).
Back in 2019, on Feb. 5 our defense was also a tad suspect. We were ranked 66 with a AdjD of 97.2. A month later (or on Selection Sunday I should say), we had cut our ranking in half to 30 and AdjD to 95.0.
And maybe I’m wrong, but I do think that’s the difference between offense and defense. If your offense sucks, it’s probably going to keep on sucking. Like if you can’t shoot the ball or if your center is 6’8”, those are tough to fix in the span of a month. But if effort and concentration are lacking, we can work with that. After all, this nearly-identical personnel had an AdjD of 91.7 a year ago to date. So we know they are capable.
And I do think most of our defensive issues are effort and concentration related. Someone else mentioned this in another thread, but it’s almost like our guys can get bored with a big lead. We held OSU to 32 points in the first 26 minutes and were up 20. Whether people like it or not, we held Iowa to 0.70 points per possession in the first half of our first game with them. We held Illinois – a team that averages 1.12 points per possession (at mostly not full-strength) – to 1.04 at full strength in their home arena. We’ve seen that this team is 100% capable when it locks in.
I’m Purdue ride-or-die. I think our offense can and will carry us come March. But I also believe that defense is a ship that can be righted and will be righted. The next few weeks will tell. We don’t play any stellar offenses, but we play a number of competent defenses (again – according to the metrics).
Finally – remember we have had a target on our back all year – much more than we are used to. When we go into the RAC, or into Assembly Hall, we are getting these teams best shot. They come in guns-a-blazing and absolutely nothing to lose. Our guys getting this night after night is going to pay dividends come March.
Ever grateful, ever true. If you sing it, act like it. Boiler up.
P.S. - EvanMiya has our defense at only 50th.
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