What has to happen to lock in a 3 seed?

[3AmigosBigDogBabyBoilersBiggie]

Purdue is playing great and closing out the regular season strong. They've won 8 of their last 9 and are favored to win the last 4. Not saying they're guaranteed to win. They're just in a great position to possibly win BigTen title and a #1 seed in the BTT.
I think we're currently considered a 4 seed by most outlets.

Based on the bias against the BigTen and the infatuation the selection committee seems to have with certain teams and/or certain conferences, I believe it is basically impossible for us to get a 2 seed without multiple teams above us having complete collapses down the stretch.

So what are the results needed to get one of those 3 seed slots?

Here's how I see the top 20 or so teams broken down into 5 groups.

TEAMS THAT PURDUE LIKELY CAN'T CATCH AND ARE #1 SEED CANDIDATES
Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor

TEAMS THAT ARE AT LEAST 2 LOSSES AWAY FROM FALLING EVEN TO PURDUE OR BEHIND THEM. #2 SEED CANDIDATES
Oregon, Louisville,

TEAMS THAT WOULD FALL TO EVEN WITH OR BEHIND Purdue WITH 1 LOSS. POSSIBLE #2/#3 SEEDS
North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky

TEAMS WHOSE RESUMES SEEM VERY CLOSE TO PURDUE BUT THE COMMITTEE WOULD LIKELY PUT THEM OVER US FOR #3 SEEDS
Florida, Florida St., UCLA

TEAMS SLIGHTLY BEHIND US
Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Butler, Creighton, Cincinnati, SMU, St. Mary's, Norte Dame, Maryland

It feels like we have to win out and at least get to the Big Ten Championship to get over the hump.

Agree? Disagree?

 

[lbodel]

Purdue is playing great and closing out the regular season strong. They've won 8 of their last 9 and are favored to win the last 4. Not saying they're guaranteed to win. They're just in a great position to possibly win BigTen title and a #1 seed in the BTT.
I think we're currently considered a 4 seed by most outlets.

Based on the bias against the BigTen and the infatuation the selection committee seems to have with certain teams and/or certain conferences, I believe it is basically impossible for us to get a 2 seed without multiple teams above us having complete collapses down the stretch.

So what are the results needed to get one of those 3 seed slots?

Here's how I see the top 20 or so teams broken down into 5 groups.

TEAMS THAT PURDUE LIKELY CAN'T CATCH AND ARE #1 SEED CANDIDATES
Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor

TEAMS THAT ARE AT LEAST 2 LOSSES AWAY FROM FALLING EVEN TO PURDUE OR BEHIND THEM. #2 SEED CANDIDATES
Oregon, Louisville,

TEAMS THAT WOULD FALL TO EVEN WITH OR BEHIND Purdue WITH 1 LOSS. POSSIBLE #2/#3 SEEDS
North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky

TEAMS WHOSE RESUMES SEEM VERY CLOSE TO PURDUE BUT THE COMMITTEE WOULD LIKELY PUT THEM OVER US FOR #3 SEEDS
Florida, Florida St., UCLA

TEAMS SLIGHTLY BEHIND US
Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Butler, Creighton, Cincinnati, SMU, St. Mary's, Norte Dame, Maryland

It feels like we have to win out and at least get to the Big Ten Championship to get over the hump.

Agree? Disagree?

If you want a 3 seed guarantee, it's win out. If Northwestern wins their next two, they could be ranked when we play (and if they are it will be 24/25). Otherwise, there's no other ranked teams in our non-conference schedule. In the tournament, even if we ran the table through the championship game, we probably would only face one ranked team. So you aren't getting a lot of real high quality wins (unless it was Wisconsin in the BTT).

I don't know how much "change" the BTT will have on seeding either.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Purdue is playing great and closing out the regular season strong. They've won 8 of their last 9 and are favored to win the last 4. Not saying they're guaranteed to win. They're just in a great position to possibly win BigTen title and a #1 seed in the BTT.
I think we're currently considered a 4 seed by most outlets.

Based on the bias against the BigTen and the infatuation the selection committee seems to have with certain teams and/or certain conferences, I believe it is basically impossible for us to get a 2 seed without multiple teams above us having complete collapses down the stretch.

So what are the results needed to get one of those 3 seed slots?

Here's how I see the top 20 or so teams broken down into 5 groups.

TEAMS THAT PURDUE LIKELY CAN'T CATCH AND ARE #1 SEED CANDIDATES
Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor

TEAMS THAT ARE AT LEAST 2 LOSSES AWAY FROM FALLING EVEN TO PURDUE OR BEHIND THEM. #2 SEED CANDIDATES
Oregon, Louisville,

TEAMS THAT WOULD FALL TO EVEN WITH OR BEHIND Purdue WITH 1 LOSS. POSSIBLE #2/#3 SEEDS
North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky

TEAMS WHOSE RESUMES SEEM VERY CLOSE TO PURDUE BUT THE COMMITTEE WOULD LIKELY PUT THEM OVER US FOR #3 SEEDS
Florida, Florida St., UCLA

TEAMS SLIGHTLY BEHIND US
Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Butler, Creighton, Cincinnati, SMU, St. Mary's, Norte Dame, Maryland

It feels like we have to win out and at least get to the Big Ten Championship to get over the hump.

Agree? Disagree?

The effort you put into this analysis is admirable. I would put North Carolina, Duke, and Kentucky all up one level of your grouping. North Carolina is in position for a top-line seed for now. I'd also move UCLA up a level in your groupings as well.

No quantitative analytics here, but I think Purdue needs to win/tie for the Big Ten and get to the finals of the BTT for a 3-seed. Absent a Yuge hot streak and considerable carnage from teams with higher RPI's.....a 2-seed? Fuh-getta-boutit.

I hope I'm wrong, but I still see Purdue ending up as a 4-seed in Milwaukee....it could still be in the West bracket, which may not be a bad draw.....we shall see.

Another big week coming up for the Boilers.

 

[NVBoilerFan]

Win out and it's a lock for a 3 with a slight chance for a 2. A 2 would depend on a couple of teams falling off at the end and having a bad conference tournament showing.

 

[lbodel]

Win out and it's a lock for a 3 with a slight chance for a 2. A 2 would depend on a couple of teams falling off at the end and having a bad conference tournament showing.

I think you'd have to win out, win the tournament and beat Wisconsin in the process. Even then, I'm not sure if it would get us to a 2 seed given how weak the Big Ten is this year.

 

[NVBoilerFan]

I think you'd have to win out, win the tournament and beat Wisconsin in the process. Even then, I'm not sure if it would get us to a 2 seed given how weak the Big Ten is this year.

I am not going to do the research, but I wonder if a big ten team has ever won both titles and not got a 2 seed or higher.

 

[BoilerStation]

If we win out the regular season and make it to btt champ game I think we will have a 3 seed locked up. Teams ahead of us are going to lose. They have all year long and there are still plenty of matchups between ranked teams during the regular season and conference tourney play left for opportunities to move up.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I am not going to do the research, but I wonder if a big ten team has ever won both titles and not got a 2 seed or higher.

Yes. 2008 Wisconsin.....ended up as a 3-seed in the Midwest. Purdue was a 6-seed in the West. That was Moore, Hummel, and Johnson frosh season. Also, Wisconsin entered the NCAA tourney on a 10-game winning streak. They made it to the Regional and lost to Steph Curry and the 10-seed, Davidson.

 

[boilernuke]

Purdue is playing great and closing out the regular season strong. They've won 8 of their last 9 and are favored to win the last 4. Not saying they're guaranteed to win. They're just in a great position to possibly win BigTen title and a #1 seed in the BTT.
I think we're currently considered a 4 seed by most outlets.

Based on the bias against the BigTen and the infatuation the selection committee seems to have with certain teams and/or certain conferences, I believe it is basically impossible for us to get a 2 seed without multiple teams above us having complete collapses down the stretch.

So what are the results needed to get one of those 3 seed slots?

Here's how I see the top 20 or so teams broken down into 5 groups.

TEAMS THAT PURDUE LIKELY CAN'T CATCH AND ARE #1 SEED CANDIDATES
Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor

TEAMS THAT ARE AT LEAST 2 LOSSES AWAY FROM FALLING EVEN TO PURDUE OR BEHIND THEM. #2 SEED CANDIDATES
Oregon, Louisville,

TEAMS THAT WOULD FALL TO EVEN WITH OR BEHIND Purdue WITH 1 LOSS. POSSIBLE #2/#3 SEEDS
North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky

TEAMS WHOSE RESUMES SEEM VERY CLOSE TO PURDUE BUT THE COMMITTEE WOULD LIKELY PUT THEM OVER US FOR #3 SEEDS
Florida, Florida St., UCLA

TEAMS SLIGHTLY BEHIND US
Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Butler, Creighton, Cincinnati, SMU, St. Mary's, Norte Dame, Maryland

It feels like we have to win out and at least get to the Big Ten Championship to get over the hump.

Agree? Disagree?

Still don't get the love for Florida. They have only beat one ranked team this year and I think they just lost their starting center. The SEC is even worse than the BIG. I expect them to drop below Purdue.

 

[3AmigosBigDogBabyBoilersBiggie]

If you want a 3 seed guarantee, it's win out. If Northwestern wins their next two, they could be ranked when we play (and if they are it will be 24/25). Otherwise, there's no other ranked teams in our non-conference schedule. In the tournament, even if we ran the table through the championship game, we probably would only face one ranked team. So you aren't getting a lot of real high quality wins (unless it was Wisconsin in the BTT).

I don't know how much "change" the BTT will have on seeding either.

If you want a 3 seed guarantee, it's win out. If Northwestern wins their next two, they could be ranked when we play (and if they are it will be 24/25). Otherwise, there's no other ranked teams in our non-conference schedule. In the tournament, even if we ran the table through the championship game, we probably would only face one ranked team. So you aren't getting a lot of real high quality wins (unless it was Wisconsin in the BTT).

I don't know how much "change" the BTT will have on seeding either.

I tend to agree. I

The effort you put into this analysis is admirable. I would put North Carolina, Duke, and Kentucky all up one level of your grouping. North Carolina is in position for a top-line seed for now. I'd also move UCLA up a level in your groupings as well.

No quantitative analytics here, but I think Purdue needs to win/tie for the Big Ten and get to the finals of the BTT for a 3-seed. Absent a Yuge hot streak and considerable carnage from teams with higher RPI's.....a 2-seed? Fuh-getta-boutit.

I hope I'm wrong, but I still see Purdue ending up as a 4-seed in Milwaukee....it could still be in the West bracket, which may not be a bad draw.....we shall see.

Another big week coming up for the Boilers.

I'm worried that you'll be right. If we win out and are still stuck at a 4 it will be frustrating. I know we can still make a great run from a 4 spot, but I personally see a HUGE advantage in starting at that 3 line.

 

[3AmigosBigDogBabyBoilersBiggie]

Still don't get the love for Florida. They have only beat one ranked team this year and I think they just lost their starting center. The SEC is even worse than the BIG. I expect them to drop below Purdue.

I agree with you 100%. But the committee seems to want to like the SEC. I think they need to lose again to make it clear that we're above them.

 

[lbodel]

I tend to agree. I

I'm worried that you'll be right. If we win out and are still stuck at a 4 it will be frustrating. I know we can still make a great run from a 4 spot, but I personally see a HUGE advantage in starting at that 3 line.

I mean, it's all fun and games to talk about - but we have to win. I think we'll lose before the end of the regular season.

 

[3AmigosBigDogBabyBoilersBiggie]

If we win out the regular season and make it to btt champ game I think we will have a 3 seed locked up. Teams ahead of us are going to lose. They have all year long and there are still plenty of matchups between ranked teams during the regular season and conference tourney play left for opportunities to move up.

The teams most likely to pick up enough losses down the stretch to allow us in are Florida and Florida St. The Gators play South Carolina, Kentucky, and Arkansas. They could lose 2 of those. And Florida St. Plays at Duke. The scenario that could leave us at a 4 even if we win out is these 2 finishing without a loss.

 

[3AmigosBigDogBabyBoilersBiggie]

I mean, it's all fun and games to talk about - but we have to win. I think we'll lose before the end of the regular season.

It's possible. And if we do we're definitely a 4 seed or lower.

 

[Purdue0034]

If we win out and win the BTT, we will be 29 and 5; that is a #3 seed at the worst no matter what. Right? At least I sure hope so. Maybe even a #2 seed. If we go 29 and 5 and only get a #4 seed, I would be pissed! The committees fascination with the SEC is mind-boggling! If I am not mistaken, our last two games against SEC competition - both on neutral sites - Purdue is 2 and 0 and has won by an average of 20 points!
Of course we have a lot of work to do before the NCAA's, but I like our competitiveness right now. All 4 of our remaining regular season games, are not easy. I see the game at Michigan as the biggest challenge. Whatever happens, I just hope we keep playing well and start hitting a few more 3-pointers down the stretch! Boiler Up!

 

[SqueakyClean]

Iowa losing at home to Illinois probably killed our chances of them breaking into the RPI top 100. So that loss is going to haunt us all the way through selection Sunday.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I agree with you 100%. But the committee seems to want to like the SEC. I think they need to lose again to make it clear that we're above them.

They have had to find a way to justify UK's 'down' season this years from have done so by bolstering teams like South Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Iowa losing at home to Illinois probably killed our chances of them breaking into the RPI top 100. So that loss is going to haunt us all the way through selection Sunday.

Ouch.

 

[BoilerFan#35]

Only lose once including BTT. Can't be to a bottom half team either

 

[mathboy]

I don't get it. A mid-level BIG team took both Kansas and UNC down. So that means the BIG is down???? Yes, for once the ACC took the lead, slightly, in the challenge. So what?

 

[delish1]

Yeah

Iowa losing at home to Illinois probably killed our chances of them breaking into the RPI top 100. So that loss is going to haunt us all the way through selection Sunday.

Damn iowa. That was their super bowl

 

[Frankie611]

I think there are some teams that will get seeded ahead of us just because of their pedigree. Let's face it, it is much more funny and will draw higher ratings to watch a 2 seed Duke lose to a 7 instead of 2 seed Oregon. The obsession with some of these top heavy conferences seems to be setting us up for a year like when Butler made a run. The Big East had like five of the top eight seeds and I think only one of them made the FF. And the only reason that happened was by default because two of them played each other. Let the committee have their fun. I just want to see this team beat some ass for another month and a half.

 

[GregJM24]

Can someone explain to me how Kentucky's resume is better than Purdue's or Wisconsin's?

 

[PistolPt]

Can someone explain to me how Kentucky's resume is better than Purdue's or Wisconsin's?

Boy that bothers me as well. Obviously their Kentucky and we're Purdue only. They did beat NC but please the SEC schedule is cakewalk. I know Big 10 isn't loaded but SEC.......

 

[Frankie611]

I think Rutgers could beat 6-7 teams out of the big East and sec combined. Probably 3 more in the pac-12

 

[FirstDownB]

Iowa losing at home to Illinois probably killed our chances of them breaking into the RPI top 100. So that loss is going to haunt us all the way through selection Sunday.

Ohio State going into the toilet hasn't helped either. They were close to being a top 50 RPI road win a couple weeks ago. Iowa also would have been a top 100 win.

 

[FirstDownB]

Can someone explain to me how Kentucky's resume is better than Purdue's or Wisconsin's?

Non-conference SOS is the main difference. Kentucky cupcakes > Purdue cupcakes.

Lowest RPI for a Kentucky opponent is 235 Cleveland St. Purdue played Cleveland St. plus FOUR opponents with lower RPI.

My immediate tweak to RPI would be to count only games against top 150 teams as a "tournament RPI". Throw out all the warm up games unless you lose one.

 

[cprh9u]

Non-conference SOS is the main difference. Kentucky cupcakes > Purdue cupcakes.

Lowest RPI for a Kentucky opponent is 235 Cleveland St. Purdue played Cleveland St. plus FOUR opponents with lower RPI.

My immediate tweak to RPI would be to count only games against top 150 teams as a "tournament RPI". Throw out all the warm up games unless you lose one.

This and they played non-conference games vs UL, UNC, KU and UCLA, all top 10 teams right now. Yes, we played Nova and UL, but they have had a tougher road and have the same record.

Our best win is at home vs. Wisky. Their best is neutral vs. UNC. B1G and SEC are equally bad this year.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Non-conference SOS is the main difference. Kentucky cupcakes > Purdue cupcakes.

Lowest RPI for a Kentucky opponent is 235 Cleveland St. Purdue played Cleveland St. plus FOUR opponents with lower RPI.

My immediate tweak to RPI would be to count only games against top 150 teams as a "tournament RPI". Throw out all the warm up games unless you lose one.

and the North Carolina win > Notre Dame win

 

[BoilerFan#35]

Biggest factor in our RPI is we play bottom feeder mid majors and lost to Iowa and Nebraska. If we were 7-7 in the Big right now we may be not even projected to be in the tournament. Purdue needs to start scheduling good mid majors it really does kill the RPI

 

[Boilermaker]

Biggest factor in our RPI is we play bottom feeder mid majors and lost to Iowa and Nebraska. If we were 7-7 in the Big right now we may be not even projected to be in the tournament. Purdue needs to start scheduling good mid majors it really does kill the RPI

I have read on this board that starting next year RPI is being eliminated, or taking a back seat of some kind, as a criterion that the selection committee will use. If true than scheduling decent mid-tier teams vs. cupcakes (not always easy to do) becomes much less an issue I would think.

 

[GregJM24]

B1G and SEC are equally bad this year.

The Big Ten and SEC are nowhere near equally bad. The top teams are similar in both, but the middle to bottom of the Big Ten is FAR superior to the middle to bottom of the SEC. It's not close.

 

[boilerzz]

The Big Ten and SEC are nowhere near equally bad. The top teams are similar in both, but the middle to bottom of the Big Ten is FAR superior to the middle to bottom of the SEC. It's not close.

And they are both much better than the top heavy Pac 12. Below are Kenpom rankings:

Big 12 +19.36 efficiency rating
ACC +17.27
Big East +14.92
Big Ten +13.70
SEC +12.26
Pac 12 +9.68
AAC +6.45
A10 +4.62
Mountain West +2.87
MVC +2.21
WCC +0.96
Colonial +0.70

 

[cprh9u]

The Big Ten and SEC are nowhere near equally bad. The top teams are similar in both, but the middle to bottom of the Big Ten is FAR superior to the middle to bottom of the SEC. It's not close.

I see the B1G getting in 6 with a top 2 being Purdue and Wisky. I think the SEC get's in 5 with a top 2 of UK and FL will be higher seeds than the B1G's top 2. It's pretty even to me.

 

[lbodel]

Biggest factor in our RPI is we play bottom feeder mid majors and lost to Iowa and Nebraska. If we were 7-7 in the Big right now we may be not even projected to be in the tournament. Purdue needs to start scheduling good mid majors it really does kill the RPI

With so much of your non-conference scheduling dependent on tournaments, our tournament this year was not good. Next year we are playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis, so we will likely play a couple good teams there.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

If we win out and win the BTT, we will be 29 and 5; that is a #3 seed at the worst no matter what. Right? At least I sure hope so. Maybe even a #2 seed. If we go 29 and 5 and only get a #4 seed, I would be pissed! The committees fascination with the SEC is mind-boggling! If I am not mistaken, our last two games against SEC competition - both on neutral sites - Purdue is 2 and 0 and has won by an average of 20 points!
Of course we have a lot of work to do before the NCAA's, but I like our competitiveness right now. All 4 of our remaining regular season games, are not easy. I see the game at Michigan as the biggest challenge. Whatever happens, I just hope we keep playing well and start hitting a few more 3-pointers down the stretch! Boiler Up!

I do think that 29-5 would earn Purdue a two seed. I just don't see a lot of separation between Purdue and the current 2 and 3 seeds. I expect that several teams above Purdue will stumble and leave an opening.

The problem is that 29-5 is not likely for Purdue. Getting through this week will be tough enough and none of the remaining four games will be easy. Then the Big Ten tournament will be very challenging in its own right.

 

[atmafola]

#2 seed is not happening. Our RPI isnt high enough. People forget that the one metric that is directly provided to committee members are RPI, RPI w/L vs top 50, top 100, top 100+.

Committee members can use any other metric but it's difficult to not get influenced by what's directly in front of you and others in black and white

 

[boilerzz]

#2 seed is not happening. Our RPI isnt high enough. People forget that the one metric that is directly provided to committee members are RPI, RPI w/L vs top 50, top 100, top 100+.

Committee members can use any other metric but it's difficult to not get influenced by what's directly in front of you and others in black and white

If Purdue won out, our RPI would be in the 10-12 range and would likely have 3-4 more RPI top 50 wins. A 29-5 Purdue team with a 10-3 RPI top 50 record would almost certainly be a two seed.

 

[atmafola]

If Purdue won out, our RPI would be in the 10-12 range and would likely have 3-4 more RPI top 50 wins. A 29-5 Purdue team with a 10-3 RPI top 50 record would almost certainly be a two seed.

10- 12 RPI is mathematically a 3 seed. Tell me, given Purdue rep and the national perception of B1G being down this year, why would we get overseeded?

 

[boilerzz]

10- 12 RPI is mathematically a 3 seed. Tell me, given Purdue rep and the national perception of B1G being down this year, why would we get overseeded?

Because the RPI isn't the only metric they use, no matter how many times you claim it. And there would be only 3-4 P5 teams + Zags with 5 or fewer losses.

Of course, the only way we'll find out who is right is if Purdue wins out, which I'm sure we both hope occurs.