Coach Painter said Ryan Cline is the best shooter he ever recruited. He can handle the ball. Is he the near next coming of Rick Mount? Anywhere near that wow, especially paired with AJH, CS and VE. Or in an occasional three guard offense with KS and DM
what chances does Ryan Cline have of starting by January?
- Thread starter GipperProductions
- Start date
I'd say zero chance.
to me, there's no way you don't start Ray Day, Hammons, Swanigan, and Edwards. I don't see him getting more minutes that Mathias either.
to me, there's no way you don't start Ray Day, Hammons, Swanigan, and Edwards. I don't see him getting more minutes that Mathias either.
If Cline is starting at any point this season, it's not a good thing. That simply means the team has been devastated by injury or two people who we are counting on heavily (Mathias, Stephens) are both underperforming badly.
This is in no way a knock on Cline. I'm damn glad we signed him. But I don't see him starting this year unless the team goes completely in the toilet. Let's pray that doesn't happen
This is in no way a knock on Cline. I'm damn glad we signed him. But I don't see him starting this year unless the team goes completely in the toilet. Let's pray that doesn't happen
How fast things are changed to favor a point. Painter didn't even say he was the best shooter he ever recruited. He said he MIGHT be. There's a large bit of difference between those 2.
I'm going to go ahead and say no chance he starts. I fully expect a redshirt season for Cline. In the past I would argue relentlessly that there was no way Cline would redshirt. After looking long and hard and breaking the minutes down, I don't see any way Cline gets more than 10 min a game, and that's with PJ, Grant, Basil, and Taylor getting 0 minutes and Cline playing specifically at PG. That's not going to happen.
This. Something would have to be seriously wrong for Cline to be starting....like Haas starting for AJ (to get AJ's attention)...and let's not go throwing around names like Mount, Dischinger, Austin, Cornell, and Robinson....no one can live up to that....
7.3% chance Ryan starts by January. Certainly not 0%.
Stuff can happen: injuries, other SGs underperform, Ryan exceeds expectations, etc.
If none of that stuff happens, then ok it's zero. But unpredictable stuff of some kind or the other always happens.
Stuff can happen: injuries, other SGs underperform, Ryan exceeds expectations, etc.
If none of that stuff happens, then ok it's zero. But unpredictable stuff of some kind or the other always happens.
There is a slight chance he comes in and is instantly the best SG on the team. If that's the case, then I think you have to start him. Let's shoot for the stars this year. So Cline starting does not necessarily mean others have injuries or have underperformed.
But I'd put the chances he's starting by end of season at less than 1%. As others have indicated, I think he shirts.
But I'd put the chances he's starting by end of season at less than 1%. As others have indicated, I think he shirts.
If our guys move the ball (in my painter voice, MOVE) and feed the post each possession; teams are either going to have to double our bigs or play straight up. When they double AJ or Swanigan, this will leave a shooter open to knock the jumpshot/3. We should have plenty of firepower on the outside, Stephens, Mathias, VE,and Davis should all be capable 3 point threats. We really need separation in classes with Cline, as in two years the kid could be special. Everyone is focused on our bigs for obvious reasons, however Painter might have one of his best outside shooting teams if these guys just hit the open shot...Mathias/VE/Stephens are all legit.
We could be a nightmare to defend and I love it. We will need to prove first that we can hit from outside, but I'd we can consistently. ..look out.
The starting lineup will have Ray, Vince, Biggie, and AJ in it. Unless Cline is playing PG and playing it better than Hill and PJ, he doesn't enter the starting lineup. Mathias and Stephens won't start either. It's not just that Mathias and Stephens are better, even if he was better than those 2, he would have to outplay Ray or Vince. That simply will not happen
I think that either Stephens or Mathias will work his way into the starting line-up by mid-season. I think that both will be much better when healthy and will bring much needed outside shooting. I may be in minority, but I still think that Stephens will be the player that many of us thought he would eventually be.
You are probably correct but my preferred starting line up would be AJ, Biggie, VE, Hill, Mathias. I like the potential ball movement of this group. Ray and Kendall would be first off the bench for Biggie and Mathias with Vince sliding down to the 4. They would give us instant offense/defense.Then PJ and Haas for AJ and Hll. Before you jump on me about Ray, I think he has the make up to accept this role and could still be one of the top 2/3 players in minutes.
I'm a huge Davis fan and expect him to be a starter for the entire season. He has been a starter (half of his 1st and 2nd years) for 3 years, now. He's a multi-year captain. He'll be a senior. He's the glue/heart and soul of our team. With that being said, I would be ECSTATIC if Stephens or Mathias takes over his spot! If Ray keeps improving his play like he has every year, and one of those guys surpass him; that would be great news! One thing I have confidence in is that if this were to happen, Ray would have the right attitude to deal with it and be a beast coming off the bench. Like I said, I don't see it happening, but if it does LOOK OUT!
I'm a huge fan of both Davis and Edwards, as well, so I am not sure how this will work out. My rationale, however, is that when Purdue is playing high/low with Swanigan at the 4, spacing will be very important.
I also think that Stephens will be a good defender this season: not Davis good, but good.
Painter isn't bringing Davis off the bench, as much as he demands defense he is the only player that has shown he can lock down on the opposing teams best wing/guard. He is the defending defensive player of the year for the conference...
Look at this way, good teams have depth, we have it this year. Mathias at point isn't out of the realm if he shows he can handle the press, etc...He could be very similar to Koenig at Wisky; I see this as more of a possibility than bringing Davis off the bench
Look at this way, good teams have depth, we have it this year. Mathias at point isn't out of the realm if he shows he can handle the press, etc...He could be very similar to Koenig at Wisky; I see this as more of a possibility than bringing Davis off the bench
Call me crazy but I like having Edwards and Ray bringing the ball in. This allows for either Stephens or Mathias to start as well.
With those two bringing the ball in. With their size, it's possible in a press situation that a bigger defender will need to guard one or the other. They both have decent handles and should in most cases be able to get us into our half court offense.
All of this is of course only if Hill becomes a liability on offense and ends up not being the answer at point.
We have enough options to be able to move guys around to either create mismatches in the post or the perimeter or both as needed. So putting the best five on the floor will probably change from game to game as defenses try to take away our advantages.
-->Edit: sorry, meant to reply to GodFamilyCountryPurdue
You're talking about our guard play taking a revolutionary step forward compared to last year, and I agree the prospect is exciting!
Agree Davis is so good on D he must play in order to shut down the other team's top scoring guard. If he can improve in the other areas, watch out! It seems like AJ/Biggie are a lock to start at 5/4. Vince/Ray are likely starters at 3/2, but could be challenged by Dakota/Kendall/Ryan. And at the 1, Johnny/PJ are the obvious top candidates, but several others could vie for it including Ray/Dakota/Ryan.
Yes, understood that the majority of folks think Ryan will redshirt; I'm just not ready to say that because there are already indications he is more special than we thought when he signed (e.g. winning that 3-pt contest, running the team's fastest mile, visibly muscling up in the short time he's been on campus, etc.).
Personally I think he redshirts but does it perhaps knowing it could get yanked at any time depending on situations/injuries/etc.
Ray, Vince, Biggie, and AJ will start this season. It is nearly 100% set in stone.
Ray isn't just good on defense, he was our 2nd leading scorer last year, shoots at a high %, is nearly unstoppable when he drives to the rim, passes well, rebounds well and his 3 shot is much imporved.
Vince has improved his speed, ball handling, strength, athleticism, and scoring. He looks legitimately frightening when looking to score this summer. Taking it coast to coast for a J is my new favorite thing to watch Vince do. Vince was also a very legitimate 3 shooter in non-con play. I think Vince hit the freshman wall last year and saw his 3 shot and rebounding fall due to fatigue and being a freshman in the B1G.
If both Ray and Vince improve their shooting only slightly, they are a good spacing pair for the bigs. It's not like they can't shoot. Ray got hot as the season went on, Vince was hot to start and got fatigued, both have improved greatly this summer in 3 shooting, especially Ray. I don't see spacing being a problem with those 2 in.
Maybe if Dakota or Kendall could beat Ray and Vince at something other than shooting then I would think about one of them starting, but so far that hasn't happened. Ray and Vince are stronger, faster, and more rounded than those 2.
I get the concerns. People want a sniper on the floor, but Ray and Vince can hit 3s just fine when open, which is what will happen with Biggie and AJ killing people in the paint.
If anyone sits the bench to make room for a shooter, it's going to be Hill. You can't hardly afford to take Ray or Vince off the floor. Mathias miles to go before he is a viable option to play point for extended minutes.
Ray isn't just good on defense, he was our 2nd leading scorer last year, shoots at a high %, is nearly unstoppable when he drives to the rim, passes well, rebounds well and his 3 shot is much imporved.
Vince has improved his speed, ball handling, strength, athleticism, and scoring. He looks legitimately frightening when looking to score this summer. Taking it coast to coast for a J is my new favorite thing to watch Vince do. Vince was also a very legitimate 3 shooter in non-con play. I think Vince hit the freshman wall last year and saw his 3 shot and rebounding fall due to fatigue and being a freshman in the B1G.
If both Ray and Vince improve their shooting only slightly, they are a good spacing pair for the bigs. It's not like they can't shoot. Ray got hot as the season went on, Vince was hot to start and got fatigued, both have improved greatly this summer in 3 shooting, especially Ray. I don't see spacing being a problem with those 2 in.
Maybe if Dakota or Kendall could beat Ray and Vince at something other than shooting then I would think about one of them starting, but so far that hasn't happened. Ray and Vince are stronger, faster, and more rounded than those 2.
I get the concerns. People want a sniper on the floor, but Ray and Vince can hit 3s just fine when open, which is what will happen with Biggie and AJ killing people in the paint.
If anyone sits the bench to make room for a shooter, it's going to be Hill. You can't hardly afford to take Ray or Vince off the floor. Mathias miles to go before he is a viable option to play point for extended minutes.
Again, I'm not disputing your opinion that Ray will start. I agree it's virtually 100%. But I think we're, by default, downplaying what Dakota brings to the table. You want to know what Dakota does better than Ray? Passing. Our offense runs much better with Mathias on the floor. The ball tends to stick with Ray when we are trying to run motion. Having said that, Ray does so many things for this team he has to on the floor a ton. But I think Dakota is going to force his way on the court a great deal as well. It's nice to debate over quality players and quality depth.
His passing is great, I agree. Dakota has a knack. Making the offense run better is a bit questionable tho. Ray was out of games for maybe 5 minutes last year, so most likely Dakota was in when Ray was in, so I don't know how you can say he made the offense flow better. It's most likely a combination. Also, until Dakota can show that he is able to consistently find his teammates for baskets, I'm going with Ray. Ray and Vince were the 2 best players on the team last year for finding teammates for points, which IMO is what counts. Dakota still must prove that.
I once broke down the season into 2 parts: games vs NCAAT teams and games vs top Kenpom opponents. Both in the 14 games vs NCAAT teams and the 17 top kenpom teams, Dakota got more turnovers than he did assists, didn't even average 1 assist, while Ray averaged about 3 assts. That speaks pretty heavily to me that in big games, Dakota looks to score, or at least he did last year
The way that college basketball has evolved, having a "sniper" on the floor is extremely helpful. I think back to the 2010-11 team. That team had some great players, but didn't really get in sync offensively until Ryne Smith was inserted in the starting line-up. A year later, Louisville was loaded with talent, but Luke Hancock, a relatively untalented pure shooter, was critical to their success. Their championship opponent, Michigan, was also able to spread the court with shooters. I could keep giving examples, but there are too many to mention. It is hard to identify an efficient NCAA offense that doesn't feature at least one excellent shooter and with the strength that Purdue has inside, the benefit of having a sniper on the floor is high.
I thought it was interesting to watch how Stephens was defended last season, even during his slump. He typically was shadowed by a strong defender who chased him every where he went. I definitely see him as a zone buster this year.
Last season, Painter had either Mathias or Stephens in the court almost every minute of every game, but I am not saying that I just expect Stephens and Mathias to get handed those minutes again without earning them. Asuming they are healthy, I expect both players to be clearly improved.
I do expect Davis to lead the team in minutes, with Edwards and Swanigan not far behind. I could see Davis spending maybe 10 minutes per game at the 2, with Mathias sliding to the 1. That leaves 90 minutes to split between Davis, Edwards, and Biggie, which sounds about right. I think that Davis and Edwards could help Dakota out and make it work. Again, I think that Dakota will be much healthier and in better condition.
Good points. I still disagree.
This conversation has happened constantly so there are a lot of things that make this idea that Ray and Vince will still get 30 min, but not start. If Ray or Vince don't start and a shooter starts over them, yet Ray and Vince still get 30 min a game, then that means we have that shooter in for maybe 3-4 minutes to start the game, then pull them to put in the 2 already mentioned players. That is meaningless. Shooters need time to get hot, 3-4 min is not very long to get hot.
If Ray and Vince are getting 30 min a game, then most of the game they are going to be in together, along with Biggie and AJ. Those 4 players are our best and most complete players. They need to be in together. Only way a shooter in inserted into the lineup to play with those 4 the majority of the game is if one of then or said shooter plays PG. From what I have seen and heard from practice, that isn't happening.
Another thing is, it's not like Ray and Vince can't shoot. Vince was averaging over a 3 a game at 40+% shooting in non-conference, then he hit the freshman wall around mid season and in the B1G and his shooting and rebounding suffered due to the fatigue of the season. That won't happen this year. Ray ended the last 16 games of the season with an average of a 3 a game made on 38% shooting. It took a while to get going, but he got going eventually and led the team in 3FG% in conference play.
Ray has taken this summer to improve 2 main pieces of his game: shooting and ball handling. He said he has gotten much better from 3. Even if he is marginally better as well as Vince that's 2 guys that can knock down the open 3, which they will have a look at often due to nearly the entire opponents team being in the paint attempting to fend off out bigs.
I am not worried at all about Vince and Rays shooting when in the game together with Hill, Biggie and AJ. To me that our most talented and complete lineup. Vince and Ray won't be as good as Kendall, Mathias or Cline, but they will be able to make the 3 when the defenses sag on them, and if they don't sag, then a pass is going right to our bigs for an easy bucket.
I see the minutes breaking down similar to this:
Ray: 30
Vince: 30
AJ: 25
Biggie: 25
Hill: 25
Kendall: 20
Mathias: 20
Isaac: 15
PJ: 10
I see small changes to that, but not much. Don't know how anyone gets much more or much less minutes without taking significant minutes from someone.
I basically agree with your post. You've got Stephens and Mathias combining for 40 minutes per game, which is really what I am trying to say: that is, that either Stephens or Mathias will be on the court almost all the time. I don't think it will be a situation where the two are in the game together a lot and the two are on the bench at the same time.
I do have them combined for 40, but understand they aren't just playing the 2. I have Mathias at 1-3 positions and Kendall at the 2-3 positions. We at least need Ray, Vince, Biggie, and Hammons on the floor together for 10-15 min a game. Maybe I should just explain how I see the minute breakdown per position and player.
PG: Hill-25 PJ-10 Mathias-5
SG: Ray-15 Mathias-15 Kendall-10
SF: Vince-15 Ray-15 Kendall-10
PF: Biggie-25 Vince-15
C: AJ-25 Haas-15
I know I left several players out, but this is my important game roster, or January to April roster.
So we essentially agree on how minutes will be divided, but the difference is that you think that Stephens and Mathias will both play together and sit out together a considerable amount of time. I hadn't really thought about Painter taking the approach that you are suggesting, but we'll find out soon enough.
Not necessarily both out and in together. Could be that Biggie comes out, Vince moves to 4, and Kendall plays the 3 with Ray and Vince still on floor, then Biggie comes back in, Ray goes out, Kendall goes out, Mathias comes in at the 2. Or they both play at the same time? Could be a lot of options
I have seen a lot of film on Hill from his 2nd year at Illinois state and UTA. I expect big things from him. And when I say big, I just mean solid. From what I have seen of practices, Hill has the PG role locked up. I am also taking what his minutes were at UTA and Illinois state.
He could play less but really don't see him playing less than 20 min a game.
When Stephens and Davis are in at the same time, I tend to assume that Stephens would be playing the two and Davis the three, but I suppose it doesn't matter because it is hard to distinguish the 2 from the 3 in Painter's offense.
Once again, I am very surprised that people are just missing that fact that a true PG isn't needed to run an effective motion offense. A lot of people will claim that an opposing teams PG who is a good defender (Yogi Ferrell) would cause havoc, but unless that team has two great full court-on ball defenders, you can simply share the responsibility of bringing the ball up with multiple players. In the event a team presses, it is a team effort more so than a single PG. In that regard, I don't see why Davis wouldn't be able to start at 'PG' this season which gives the team a potential to start Stephens/Mathias at the other guard position while giving Edwards the SF spot.
G: Davis
G: Stephens/Mathias
SF: Edwards
PF: Swanigan
C: Hammons
***EDIT*** Lewis Jackson was integral because Painter used a high pick and roll offense to use JJ's ability to get away from the basket more, IMO. This team seems to be centered directly on the ideal motion offense, which doesn't require a true PG as long as the other players buy in to the team concept of ball movement.
G: Davis
G: Stephens/Mathias
SF: Edwards
PF: Swanigan
C: Hammons
***EDIT*** Lewis Jackson was integral because Painter used a high pick and roll offense to use JJ's ability to get away from the basket more, IMO. This team seems to be centered directly on the ideal motion offense, which doesn't require a true PG as long as the other players buy in to the team concept of ball movement.
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I would prefer that, or Mathias plays majority point, but I have been told that is highly unlikely. Mathias and Davis don't have the ball handling skills able to handle a large amount of PG duties. I really want a shooter in the starting lineup but unless Davis or Mathias plays PG, I don't see that happening
Every time I see the Mathias PG discussion emerge I am not focused on whether he can bring the ball up or not, but rather how the defense alignment sorts out. You give up a lot on the defensive side with DM as a PG against most BIG teams unless you give up the man to man.
Even if Mathias were to play point guard, he wouldn't defend point. That responsibility would belong to Davis. I also think that Purdue would need to play a pack line style of D to mitigate the quickness disadvantage.
