Utah State link of top 8 players

[tjreese]

I'm gathering some data right now on top 8 players for minutes. I'll try to figure out how to best publish it on here. I'm not taking the data and then suggesting what it might show...at least not now due to time, but have grouped players relative to stats that give a picture. My green color is ONLY to separate a yellow color as having a bit of a gap better. I have heights/wts and class for the forum to dissect as desired.

 

[tjreese]

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[Smokestack91]

Is Osobor the only big who starts? That would be a lot of pressure on him to guard Edey.

 

[boilerzz]

Is Osobor the only big who starts? That would be a lot of pressure on him to guard Edey.

Osobor and Johnson started together. Johnson can shoot the three so my guess is Edey guards Osobor and TKR/Gillis guard Johnson.

On offense, I'd guess Johnson starts on Edey and Sakho plays more than normal due to foul trouble.

 

[boilerzz]

 

[qazplm]

Utah State was underseeded IMO

This is a very, very good team.

Doesn't mean we can't win or shouldn't be favored, but an A game is probably going to be required. They looked very good on both ends last night in most facets save rebounding.

Of course, some of their drives to the basket will be less effective with Edey and I didn't see a ton of pull ups from them, and TCU didn't appear to have a dominant big man.

I think Edey and Smith do their thing, need other players to do theirs and we win. But it's going to be a tough game.

 

[tjreese]

Osobor and Johnson started together. Johnson can shoot the three so my guess is Edey guards Osobor and TKR/Gillis guard Johnson.

On offense, I'd guess Johnson starts on Edey and Sakho plays more than normal due to foul trouble.

I question "if" Johnson has the strength to play Zach. I think we may see more Sakho if he can defend Zach. He is athletic. Osobor is not a threat out and very valuable to Utah State and so it is easy to see him playing a lot. That gives Zach someone that he doesn't have to go very far out on. There is going to be sometimes to see who can use their skill to their advantage. Is Johnson (capable) the player we saw last night behind the arc? Possible. With Zach being able to sag off of Osobar, they are not going to post Johnson as an initial pass unless Zach is too high and they throw a lob over someone like Mason and so if he goes more to the perimeter Mason/Cam can defend him...and Cam could defend inside as well. That said, when he or Sakho are playing...we might see Trey/Caleb getting more time.

Looking a the numbers, they have the ability to place 4 behind the arc and be a threat and so Purdue does have to contend with that if they go that way...and then naturally if they drive and Zach has to help...Purdue needs a rebounder to find Osobar. Do they try to match size with Purdue or do they think they can't stop Purdue enough for the O they may be lacking and test small ball against Purdue. I can't imagine their zone in particular being as effective due to the lack of length mostly. If Purdue sees it I hope it is more gap offense rather than player movement which is slower, but needed if they go matchup zone IMO

 

[tjreese]

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This guy has to put in a lot of time to have the percent of things as he does. Here we see a double down from the perimeter and don't see that as much as a big doubling due to Purdue's shooters. They rotated quickly having experience playing that way and the perimeter player was effective in throwing the skip pass

 

[boilerzz]

One thing to note. Johnson (the 7 footer) averages 6.2 fouls per 40 and Sahko (backup center) averages 6.7 fouls per 40.

On the flip side, Osobor draws 6.9 fouls per 40 so if Zach is his primary defender, he will need to be careful to avoid foul trouble.

 

[boilerzz]

 

[boilerzz]

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Utah State was underseeded IMO

This is a very, very good team.

Doesn't mean we can't win or shouldn't be favored, but an A game is probably going to be required. They looked very good on both ends last night in most facets save rebounding.

Of course, some of their drives to the basket will be less effective with Edey and I didn't see a ton of pull ups from them, and TCU didn't appear to have a dominant big man.

I think Edey and Smith do their thing, need other players to do theirs and we win. But it's going to be a tough game.

They looked like it against TCU, but looking over their metrics I tend to think that they are not always that impressive. Regardless, Purdue needs to be ready to play because this is a capable team.

 

[boilerzz]

 

[Smokestack91]

One thing to note. Johnson (the 7 footer) averages 6.2 fouls per 40 and Sahko (backup center) averages 6.7 fouls per 40.

On the flip side, Osobor draws 6.9 fouls per 40 so if Zach is his primary defender, he will need to be careful to avoid foul trouble.

If I'm them, I go at Zach with Osobor. Their best chance to win the game is to get Zach in foul trouble.

 

[Old Gold n Black]

I question "if" Johnson has the strength to play Zach. I think we may see more Sakho if he can defend Zach. He is athletic. Osobor is not a threat out and very valuable to Utah State and so it is easy to see him playing a lot. That gives Zach someone that he doesn't have to go very far out on. There is going to be sometimes to see who can use their skill to their advantage. Is Johnson (capable) the player we saw last night behind the arc? Possible. With Zach being able to sag off of Osobar, they are not going to post Johnson as an initial pass unless Zach is too high and they throw a lob over someone like Mason and so if he goes more to the perimeter Mason/Cam can defend him...and Cam could defend inside as well. That said, when he or Sakho are playing...we might see Trey/Caleb getting more time.

Looking a the numbers, they have the ability to place 4 behind the arc and be a threat and so Purdue does have to contend with that if they go that way...and then naturally if they drive and Zach has to help...Purdue needs a rebounder to find Osobar. Do they try to match size with Purdue or do they think they can't stop Purdue enough for the O they may be lacking and test small ball against Purdue. I can't imagine their zone in particular being as effective due to the lack of length mostly. If Purdue sees it I hope it is more gap offense rather than player movement which is slower, but needed if they go matchup zone IMO

Someone in another thread made a comp between Osobor and Trevion Williams. This is accurate, IMO. Much like Tre, Osobor has a similar frame and is a good ball handler and passer. Hopefully all the years of Zach competing against Tre in practice make the matchup against Osobor more advantageous.

Also it should be noted that Utah State does a pretty good job of interior passing, in general. We need to stay committed to a solid defensive plan in the paint to keep these guys in check. The wild card here is Martinez, as he seems to be their only slasher but he draws a lot of fouls via penetrating the lane. If he's also hitting his 3's, he will be a really, really touch matchup.

 

[tjreese]

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As Bob Macy would say...all zones look the same after a pass. So, it seems in high school...maybe not college that a 1-3-1 is most effective against 1)poor guard play 2) more effective against smaller guards 3)less effective when the offense has bigs attacking the blocks. You always know the weakside defender on the wing has to protect the block on his side and so he has to drop when the ball is on the other side of the court. Here we see a skip pass that Purdue might just shoot if that defender is deep (dropped) as we would expect against Zach.

Personally, I like a 2-1-2 set as opposed to a 2-3 just due to the opportunities around the FT line. Fill that spot with someone that can pass out of it and score either with a shot or quick drive and you can destroy it. Good high post effectiveness has them abandon it quickly. I like the 2-1-2 "wide" and starting with a pass along the side line just to start the movement (but with Zach he has to be the high post player because people are not going to chase him) looking to the high post and then catching and looking opposite. However Zach is not going to be a facilitator and so we might see more of a 2-3 look with Zach along the blocks going back and forth and the weakside of the 3 or 4 man flash to the FT line...or maybe just the 4 man is planted there starting out screening their middle man if that low. As with any zone, skip passes are always a look, because they are not on a man, but in space. Screening inside the zone produces shots as well. Attack gaps, look to the inside, look opposite especially at the high post should a pass come in from the wing and remember the 45 degree angle for passes. I can see Zach occupying the backside by moving in front of him to pull his attention and someone like Cam or Miles getting a lob weakside if someone holds the attention of that opposite FT line defender so he can sneak behind.

 

[tjreese]

Someone in another thread made a comp between Osobor and Trevion Williams. This is accurate, IMO. Much like Tre, Osobor has a similar frame and is a good ball handler and passer. Hopefully all the years of Zach competing against Tre in practice make the matchup against Osobor more advantageous.

Also it should be noted that Utah State does a pretty good job of interior passing, in general. We need to stay committed to a solid defensive plan in the paint to keep these guys in check. The wild card here is Martinez, as he seems to be their only slasher but he draws a lot of fouls via penetrating the lane. If he's also hitting his 3's, he will be a really, really touch matchup.

I think they had 4 guys shooting over 35% behind the arc if they went small and so Purdue would have to defend them and you hope they don't drive as much although it appears they have some athletic drivers

 

[boilerzz]

Someone in another thread made a comp between Osobor and Trevion Williams. This is accurate, IMO. Much like Tre, Osobor has a similar frame and is a good ball handler and passer. Hopefully all the years of Zach competing against Tre in practice make the matchup against Osobor more advantageous.

That was me. And I had the same thought with regards to Zach defending Tre in practice.

 

[boilerzz]

As Bob Macy would say...all zones look the same after a pass. So, it seems in high school...maybe not college that a 1-3-1 is most effective against 1)poor guard play 2) more effective against smaller guards 3)less effective when the offense has bigs attacking the blocks. You always know the weakside defender on the wing has to protect the block on his side and so he has to drop when the ball is on the other side of the court. Here we see a skip pass that Purdue might just shoot if that defender is deep (dropped) as we would expect against Zach.

Personally, I like a 2-1-2 set as opposed to a 2-3 just due to the opportunities around the FT line. Fill that spot with someone that can pass out of it and score either with a shot or quick drive and you can destroy it. Good high post effectiveness has them abandon it quickly. I like the 2-1-2 "wide" and starting with a pass along the side line just to start the movement (but with Zach he has to be the high post player because people are not going to chase him) looking to the high post and then catching and looking opposite. However Zach is not going to be a facilitator and so we might see more of a 2-3 look with Zach along the blocks going back and forth and the weakside of the 3 or 4 man flash to the FT line...or maybe just the 4 man is planted there starting out screening their middle man if that low. As with any zone, skip passes are always a look, because they are not on a man, but in space. Screening inside the zone produces shots as well. Attack gaps, look to the inside, look opposite especially at the high post should a pass come in from the wing and remember the 45 degree angle for passes. I can see Zach occupying the backside by moving in front of him to pull his attention and someone like Cam or Miles getting a lob weakside if someone holds the attention of that opposite FT line defender so he can sneak behind.

Obviously the biggest issue teams will have if they choose to zone us is keeping Zach and the guys off the offensive glass. We are such a good offensive rebounding team that sometimes our best offense is throwing a ball toward the rim and letting our guys go get it.

 

[qazplm]

They looked like it against TCU, but looking over their metrics I tend to think that they are not always that impressive. Regardless, Purdue needs to be ready to play because this is a capable team.

Metrics aren't everything. Recent play matters too, and they finished the season pretty strong.

I'm going to assume we will see a team on Sunday that just dismantled TCU, that's pretty impressive to me.

 

[tjreese]

Obviously the biggest issue teams will have if they choose to zone us is keeping Zach and the guys off the offensive glass. We are such a good offensive rebounding team that sometimes our best offense is throwing a ball toward the rim and letting our guys go get it.

I mean if you flood the weakside with two players...who doesn't get block out? Gotta have a safety for some long bounces and so you can't send to many to the board. The best place to start for an offensive rebound is that high post or FT line.

 

[boilerzz]

I think they had 4 guys shooting over 35% behind the arc if they went small and so Purdue would have to defend them and you hope they don't drive as much although it appears they have some athletic drivers

Utah State only has two guys in the regular rotation that shoot better than 33.3% from three. Brown is as 38.8% on 152 shots and Martinez is at 38.5% on 130 shots. The 7 footer Johnson is 33.3% on 69 shots so he doesn't normally shoot a lot of them. The one other guy they have who looks capable is Javon Jackson but he's only shot 46 threes (in 11 mpg) and is at 39.1%.

As a team, they are 254th nationally at 32.4% and 332nd nationally in 3 pointers as a percent of total points.

Of course, I say all that and one of their poor 3P shooters will hit 5 threes.

 

[tjreese]

Metrics aren't everything. Recent play matters too, and they finished the season pretty strong.

I'm going to assume we will see a team on Sunday that just dismantled TCU, that's pretty impressive to me.

THAT is a key. If the populations are different due to something in recent games then using all the data may not tell the story. I can guarantee the coaches are comparing recent things with overall metrics...something I have typed a lot about potential different populations thrown together

 

[tjreese]

Utah State only has two guys in the regular rotation that shoot better than 33.3% from three. Brown is as 38.8% on 152 shots and Martinez is at 38.5% on 130 shots. The 7 footer Johnson is 33.3% on 69 shots so he doesn't normally shoot a lot of them. The one other guy they have who looks capable is Javon Jackson but he's only shot 46 threes (in 11 mpg) and is at 39.1%.

As a team, they are 254th nationally at 32.4% and 332nd nationally in 3 pointers as a percent of total points.

Of course, I say all that and one of their poor 3P shooters will hit 5 threes.

5 doesn't hurt if he is the only one.

 

[boilerzz]

One thing to note. Johnson (the 7 footer) averages 6.2 fouls per 40 and Sahko (backup center) averages 6.7 fouls per 40.

On the flip side, Osobor draws 6.9 fouls per 40 so if Zach is his primary defender, he will need to be careful to avoid foul trouble.

One other note on this. Utah State is 319th nationally in 2 foul participation. In other words, they tend to autobench when guys get 2 fouls in the first half. Obviously that may change in a game that so important but it would be counter to their philosophy.

For those that are curious, Purdue is 167th, so slightly better than average in trusting guys with 2 fouls.

 

[PaBoiler78]

One other note on this. Utah State is 319th nationally in 2 foul participation. In other words, they tend to autobench when guys get 2 fouls in the first half. Obviously that may change in a game that so important but it would be counter to their philosophy.

For those that are curious, Purdue is 167th, so slightly better than average in trusting guys with 2 fouls.

they are also like 286th vs 2 pt defense, they don't seem to rebound well so we should have adv there too

 

[qazplm]

they are also like 286th vs 2 pt defense, they don't seem to rebound well so we should have adv there too

Rebounding is definitely an area of advantage. Also a lot of their offense is near the rim so we should have an advantage there as well.

 

[tjreese]

One other note on this. Utah State is 319th nationally in 2 foul participation. In other words, they tend to autobench when guys get 2 fouls in the first half. Obviously that may change in a game that so important but it would be counter to their philosophy.

For those that are curious, Purdue is 167th, so slightly better than average in trusting guys with 2 fouls.

A lot of that depends on who and when I'm guessing as to whether they go out or not

 

[BoilerAndy]

Utah State was underseeded IMO

This is a very, very good team.

Doesn't mean we can't win or shouldn't be favored, but an A game is probably going to be required. They looked very good on both ends last night in most facets save rebounding.

Of course, some of their drives to the basket will be less effective with Edey and I didn't see a ton of pull ups from them, and TCU didn't appear to have a dominant big man.

I think Edey and Smith do their thing, need other players to do theirs and we win. But it's going to be a tough game.

Get rebounds and limit turnovers. Purdue wins with more possessions.