not so fast says a politico analysis:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...urnout-early-voting-data-213897#ixzz48ub5STOS
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...urnout-early-voting-data-213897#ixzz48ub5STOS
Trump bringing out new voters?
- Thread starter qazplm
- Start date
6% of 2.36M is still a lot of people in a close election like FL. That's over 115k "new" voters. If this were the D's would they not have the right say this is a good omen? This is clearly good news for the R's. It doesn't mean he will win, but it's a far cry from bad news.
Not really, no. Florida new registrations number over a million in the last year alone IIRC. So that's about 10 percent of new voters. 8.3 million people voted in 2012 and roughly the same voted in 2008. So assume 8+ million vote again. Those 115K "new" voters are too small to be statistically significant. How many voters will be turned out on the Dem side by Trump being the nominee? How many voters who voted republican last time will flip? How man dems who stayed home in 12 will come out? I don't know, you don't know, we can make guesses but obviously we are collectively talking about millions of either new voters or switching voters or "reactivated" voters.
Hillary has more primary voters total than Trump does. Does that mean good news for Hillary? No, not really. Primary voters and GE voters are different things. Primaries are their own animal and the relevance to the GE is pretty light on both sides. But what is clear is that Trump is simply activating the republican base. I suppose that's not as you say "bad news" it could be worse certainly. But as Gr8 points out, the republican base is not enough to win the Electoral College...there are simply more democrats nationally than republicans numerically, and some of the most important battleground states, like Florida, have significant minority populations.
I'm sure a simplistic thought like Romney lost by 74K, 115K is bigger than 74K so derp good for Trump, fits you well.
A slightly less derpy look at it is that the losses Trump will have in Hispanics, AAs, the youth and women are going to be massive. The WHOLE POINT of Trump's candidacy is effectively to say, no biggie, I don't need as many of those folks, because I've got all these new voters I'm bringing in.
But he does not have all those new voters he's bringing in. So he won't be able to absorb losing all of the non-white male and the women who love them votes by bringing in a whole ton of new white men and the women who love them votes. Unless he can stem and significantly reverse losses in the first group, 115K more in Florida ain't remotely gonna cut it.
I saw this article in politico this morning too. They allude to it in this piece, but the fact is that Republican voting in the primaries is up 60% this year vs. 2012, while Democrat voting is down 35%. This speaks to "energy and enthusiasm" in the campaigns, which the article also alludes to, and right now HRC's down vs. Obama's in 2008 or 2012.
Does that mean Trump will win? Certainly not, but it could portend what is to come in the GE.
It's dangerous for HRC and her campaign to think this election is going to follow form like typical GEs. This election will be unlike any seen by any of us before. She isn't running against McCain or Romney.
no, again, it does not speak to anything. The last six elections with competitive primaries, three times the side with greater primary numbers won, and three times the side with lower numbers won. There is literally zero correlation between having more voters at a primary and winning or losing the GE.
This election won't be typical. Trump's going to see atypical negatives among women, minorities and the youth.
In the latest NBC Poll, HRC has nearly the same unfavorable number as Trump. Don't act like she's some incredibly well-liked and trusted candidate. In this election, both parties have flawed candidates. HRC is limping across the finish line in the Democrat primary. Save for a boost from downtown Louisville (as the last precincts came in), she would have lost both KY and OR last night. She BARELY won KY vs. the Socialist, and turnout was down again for the Dems.
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