Torvik Funalytics - Purdue vs. High Point

[Old Gold n Black]

For all you stat nerds out there, check this out. Each year at tourney time I always appreciate the comprehensive and free resources at barttorvik.com. Great stuff. Here's a good place to start:

Purdue vs. High Point

 

[tjreese]

For all you stat nerds out there, check this out. Each year at tourney time I always appreciate the comprehensive and free resources at barttorvik.com. Great stuff. Here's a good place to start:

Purdue vs. High Point

I think all of that is good for looking at a given team tendencies relative to the competition they played, but when you try to compare one team versus another when teh data used comes from different populations, could be inaccurate for a comparison. It does however knowing the competition it played against, does reveal tendencies against that population...absent the variation between teams and games.

 

[Dryfly88]

Agree TJ. Them playing (1) quad 2 game and zero quad 1 games makes it very difficult. Not saying they can't beat us, just hard to get a real good feel for how good they are. I'd feel better if they had a few quad 1 games to look at how they did.

Is there something in that metric that I'm missing that takes that into account?

 

[qazplm]

For all you stat nerds out there, check this out. Each year at tourney time I always appreciate the comprehensive and free resources at barttorvik.com. Great stuff. Here's a good place to start:

Purdue vs. High Point

Stats are great but they aren't always reality when one team has the almost 300th ranked SOS and the other has almost the opposite.

 

[Do Dah Day]

Good Gawd, I need a DRINK after just looking at the first page! And NO, I am not an engineering or math grad!

 

[Old Gold n Black]

Fellas. You know, they're called "Fun-alytics" for a reason. No need to get overly critical.

What I found to be most interesting was individual player stats that show usage, turnover rate, and such. Even if the stats were collected against inferior opponents, it still shows trends within the team itself about each player's strengths and weaknesses.

Again, just for fun.

 

[tjreese]

Agree TJ. Them playing (1) quad 2 game and zero quad 1 games makes it very difficult. Not saying they can't beat us, just hard to get a real good feel for how good they are. I'd feel better if they had a few quad 1 games to look at how they did.

Is there something in that metric that I'm missing that takes that into account?

no even with quads...not all quads are the same and particularly in the same metrics. I think you can compare tendencies understanding that those are against different competition, but tendencies that are more successful for that particular team against the particular teams in question. Purdue "should" win this and rest some players.

I think Purdue can see who they may go over the top on screens and who they may go under. Purdue can see if they can help off of different people and those that helping may be iffy. I think Purdue can look at the balance inside and outside the arc as "tendencies". I think when you look at teams outside the P5 teams you can find a lot of talent in the guards and players 6'6" and under typically as they get to develop due to their competition that allows players some freedom and growth. Purdue can generally look at steals and blocks and see if they are concentrated or spread relative to that athletic metrics as to a player or two or the team...for their competition.

They and Purdue can hit open shots behind the arc, but do they have to be as open??? Purdue again must contain the dribble and be aware of lobs to Bodo Bodo should Trey help on dribble penetration. When Purdue shoots, and particularly if Braden has driven the ball Purdue has to have that safety centered in the court above the arc to reduce effective runouts on missed shots. Purdue must eliminate or reduce runouts and transition scoring by High Point. I don't believe High Point is as strong physically as Purdue, but has some team quickness and a desire to drive the ball until that is taken away or a wide open three exists. High Point is older with mature bodies and this is their last go around with nothing to lose. They should play fearless as the pressure is on Purdue and hopefully not tight as we saw against USC. Part of me thinks Caleb could have a really good game on the boards with enough quickness to defend their number 5. I'm sure Caleb wants his senior year to go as far as possible.

I think the metrics show tendencies, but the metrics never show the variation about those averages and why I think metrics are a good starting point, but quite often there comes a time when a coach has to decide to stay with the metrics in anticipation of regression back to the average or that a coach could stay with the metrics too long. Both can be correct and both can be flawed. I do think Matt tends to the regression back to average...

 

[BoilerJS]

For all you stat nerds out there, check this out. Each year at tourney time I always appreciate the comprehensive and free resources at barttorvik.com. Great stuff. Here's a good place to start:

Purdue vs. High Point

Thanks for the research and putting it together.

 

[rgarlitz]

FYI:

ESPN's BPI matchup predictor has Purdue/High Point as the 6th safest Thursday game, with Purdue having an 81.8% chance of winning and a predicted margin of victory of 9.4 points.

Men's College Basketball Power Index (BPI) Predictions - ESPN

View Men's College Basketball Power Index Predictions for each NCAAM game day on ESPN. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.

www.espn.com

 

[rgarlitz]

Good Gawd, I need a DRINK after just looking at the first page! And NO, I am not an engineering or math grad!

My take from all of that is make them shoot a bunch of 3s. Purdue's top-25 at defending the arc but can't stop much of anything else.

 

[Do Dah Day]

My take from all of that is make them shoot a bunch of 3s. Purdue's top-25 at defending the arc but can't stop much of anything else.

Thank you!