To our liberal, progressive friends on here...

[JBoiler23]

I post stuff here because

1. MSM provides little coverage of the Biden Administration’s missteps. There’s ample coverage of EVERYTHING Trump does wrong (just like the media frames up Trump is a liar and Biden/Harris “misspeak”…explain that difference to me).

But, like, everyone here already agrees with you on this. So who are you trying to convince?

2. The economy is a wreck and it’s a wreck because of the free money injected into the economy during COVID and the Biden administration doubled down and added additional money into the economy by the mislabeled (OK reality a flat out LIE) inflation Reduction Act and Biden’s executive orders eliminating college debt even though the USSC has said doing so is illegal.

By no metric is the economy a "wreck." That's another problem with trying to have an honest conversation, everything is the "worst ever" or we're a "third world country," or "we don't even have a country anymore." Inflation spiked after COVID as the whole world knew it would. It was likely exacerbated somewhat in the US by relief funds made available in 2021. That doesn't mean the bill that created those funds was objectively bad, because we don't measure the effectiveness of legislation solely by its effect on the rate of inflation, but one could at least have an honest discussion about whether the negative of the additional inflation it caused outweighed any positive effects. Despite Biden admin policies that may have added to the inflation, we still have some of the lowest in the world and it's returned to a historical norm along with wage growth catching back up.

SCOTUS did not say eliminating debt was illegal full stop. They said that the proposed justification for the broad forgiveness plan in question didn't hold up, so the Biden admin canceled broad forgiveness. They have continued with targeted forgiveness that no one has said is illegal. Either learn what actually happened, or, if you already know, stop lying.

But you're either unwilling or unable to engage on the nuance of these subjects. You just say whatever it is that Trump, or the Republican party at large, has said as if it's fact.

 

[Riveting]

1. The MSM was across the board apoplectic after the debate. The MSM has actually hammered Biden pretty hard overall but yet when Trump goes on his boats and shark tangents, it slips right on by. The problem is he says that kind of stuff so much it’s been normalized. Your claim here is a stretch (by normal standards, not yours)
2. By what metrics are the economy a mess? Because I can goddamn guarantee that if Trump was in office you would be touting this exact same economy. And so would he.

Just checking. Anybody been ganging up on you and hurting your feelings?

 

[TheGunner]

2. By what metrics are the economy a mess? Because I can goddamn guarantee that if Trump was in office you would be touting this exact same economy. And so would he.

The only metric that matters to the general population…that being wages versus inflation.

During Biden’s presidency, inflation has stung. One of the clearest ways to see this is to compare the rise of prices with that of wages. During Trump’s term, wages for rank-and-file workers rose 15.4 percent — almost twice as much as inflation did. This helped people feel as though they were getting ahead. In contrast, under Biden, wages for rank-and-file workers have barely kept up with the 19 percent jump in prices. What’s more, the supply chain glitches and price surges of 2022 set a lot of workers back. The good news for Biden is that, for the past year, wages have been growing faster than overall prices, and this trend is likely to continue. More Americans should start to feel better soon.
Advantage: Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/18/trump-biden-economy-charts-compare/

 

[TheGunner]

SCOTUS did not say eliminating debt was illegal full stop. They said that the proposed justification for the broad forgiveness plan in question didn't hold up, so the Biden admin canceled broad forgiveness. They have continued with targeted forgiveness that no one has said is illegal. Either learn what actually happened, or, if you already know, stop lying.

Did Biden eliminate college debt? No. Why not. Because the court block him.

Supreme Court strikes down Biden student-loan forgiveness program - SCOTUSblog

This article was updated on June 30 at 4:00 p.m. By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that the Biden administration overstepped its authority last year when it announced that it would cancel up to $400 billion in student loans. The Biden administration had said that as many as 43 million Americans

www.scotusblog.com

As for the economy being a mess, see most post above…real wages haven’t kept pace with inflation. Everyone knows it and feels it

 

[JBoiler23]

Did Biden eliminate college debt? No. Why not. Because the court block him.

Supreme Court strikes down Biden student-loan forgiveness program - SCOTUSblog

This article was updated on June 30 at 4:00 p.m. By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that the Biden administration overstepped its authority last year when it announced that it would cancel up to $400 billion in student loans. The Biden administration had said that as many as 43 million Americans

www.scotusblog.com

Way to completely ignore what I actually said. To reiterate, they blocked one specific relief program, not the entire concept of debt forgiveness. And you've provided a link that actually proves ME right, so I guess you didn't read it, but thanks! Nothing in this SCOTUS ruling prevents the subsequent forgiveness that has been provided.

As for the economy being a mess, see most post above…real wages haven’t kept pace with inflation. Everyone knows it and feels it

"The good news for Biden is that, for the past year, wages have been growing faster than overall prices, and this trend is likely to continue. More Americans should start to feel better soon."

Real wages are, in fact, higher now than they were in February 2020 (you know the end of the whole "pre-pandemic" part of Trump's presidency that Republicans are actually willing to count on his record?). And real wages didn't grow 15-ish percent under Trump, they grew about 7%:

January 2017: $10.65/hour

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_02152017.pdf

January 2021: $11.43/hour

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_02102021.pdf

And that second number may in inflated because it was generally lower-wage folks that lost their jobs during COVID, so the average may have skewed up.

I get it, we were upside down for awhile as the entire economy of the world restarted. It was inevitable that was going to happen. Without American Rescue Plan do we flip back the right way a certain number of months earlier? Maybe. But again, impact on inflation is not the only measure of a law's success. You're looking at inflation in a vacuum as if nothing else matters.

 

[JBoiler23]

The only metric that matters to the general population…that being wages versus inflation.

During Biden’s presidency, inflation has stung. One of the clearest ways to see this is to compare the rise of prices with that of wages. During Trump’s term, wages for rank-and-file workers rose 15.4 percent — almost twice as much as inflation did. This helped people feel as though they were getting ahead. In contrast, under Biden, wages for rank-and-file workers have barely kept up with the 19 percent jump in prices. What’s more, the supply chain glitches and price surges of 2022 set a lot of workers back. The good news for Biden is that, for the past year, wages have been growing faster than overall prices, and this trend is likely to continue. More Americans should start to feel better soon.
Advantage: Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/18/trump-biden-economy-charts-compare/

I'll hop on this one too just to point out the moving of the goalposts. You didn't say Trump was better for real wages (which is only part of the how we evaluate the economy, anyway). You said "the economy is a wreck." Those are two very different statements, so even if you could prove the former, it wouldn't necessarily support the latter. Continued intellectual dishonesty.

But, for the sake of argument, I can grant you that inflation has been worse under Biden. The extent to which he caused it is up for debate. But it seems like everyone saying the economy is bad is only looking at that one indicator. Under Trump, we heard the economy was good because the stock market was up. If you point out it's also up under Biden, the response is "the stock market is not the economy," which I actually agree with, but you can't tout it for one and discount it for the other. Under Trump, we heard the economy was good because unemployment was low. If you point out that it's also low under Biden (sometimes even lower than under Trump), the response is "that's only because they don't count people who've stopped looking for work." That's true, but it was also true under Trump, so to use it as a distinction is dishonest. People say Trump shouldn't be penalized for the economy crashing 2020 because of the pandemic, but then hold Biden accountable for volatility in a still-recovering economy.

With retail sales being what they are, it's hard to argue that people think they can't afford to survive, and there's polling to suggest that, while a majority THINK it's harder for people to get by, they actually feel pretty comfortable themselves.

I'll finish with this. While I think there are major systemic problems in the economy (that go back decades) that favor the wealthy over the working, I grow really tired of people using double-standards on this topic. If low unemployment or a rising stock market was good in 2018, it's good in 2024.

 

[TheGunner]

. Without American Rescue Plan do we flip back the right way a certain number of months earlier? Maybe. But again, impact on inflation is not the only measure of a law's success. You're looking at inflation in a vacuum as if nothing else matters.

Well, if you go to the grocery store and are paying 20%+ and the price of a home is up 20% coupled with interest rising from 3.5% to 7% for a home…yeah, inflation matters. So much so, that the Fed is keeping rates high to prevent inflation running like it did in 1980.

Biden stepping on the gas with the inflation reduction act added to inflationary pressure resulting from COVID (maybe everyone should’ve went back to work earlier which would have helped lower govt spending and thus inflation). And today inflation is still a problem, independent on how much things have improved since last year. Everyone still feels the pinch because they have lost ground for 3 yrs under the Biden Administration. There’s no magic wand to fix that with out causing more inflation, which will be the lesson everyone will learn if Harris is elected.

 

[JBoiler23]

Well, if you go to the grocery store and are paying 20%+ and the price of a home is up 20% coupled with interest rising from 3.5% to 7% for a home…yeah, inflation matters. So much so, that the Fed is keeping rates high to prevent inflation running like it did in 1980.

I didn't say inflation doesn't matter. But you're saying "the economy is a wreck" because inflation. The economy is more than inflation. And that's the Fed's job, to balance inflation and employment. Seems like they've done a great job given inflation is under control and we didn't have to go through a recession and/or high unemployment to get there. And I'm sure you'll be the first one on here if interest rates start to come back down in September as expected saying it's the deep state doing it to make Democrats look good.

And don't get me started on home prices, that's something that has been becoming more of a problem for decades and is not specifically a post-COVID issue.

Biden stepping on the gas with the inflation reduction act added to inflationary pressure resulting from COVID (maybe everyone should’ve went back to work earlier which would have helped lower govt spending and thus inflation). And today inflation is still a problem, independent on how much things have improved since last year. Everyone still feels the pinch because they have lost ground for 3 yrs under the Biden Administration. There’s no magic wand to fix that with out causing more inflation, which will be the lesson everyone will learn if Harris is elected.

Again, inflation isn't the only thing that matters. You seem to think that if a government action is inflationary, it is necessarily the wrong action to take. So, I'm sure you'll be the first to say Trump's plans for tariffs, his desire to be able to set the interest rate himself willy-nilly, and mass deportation are bad ideas. You don't have to convince me that there has been high inflation, I recognize it and have acknowledged it, but you've yet to convince me that the ECONOMY (the whole big thing) would be appreciably better had Trump won in 2020.

 

[Purdue95Grad]

Just checking. Anybody been ganging up on you and hurting your feelings?

No. Guess you should try harder.

 

[Purdue95Grad]

Well, if you go to the grocery store and are paying 20%+ and the price of a home is up 20% coupled with interest rising from 3.5% to 7% for a home…yeah, inflation matters. So much so, that the Fed is keeping rates high to prevent inflation running like it did in 1980.

Biden stepping on the gas with the inflation reduction act added to inflationary pressure resulting from COVID (maybe everyone should’ve went back to work earlier which would have helped lower govt spending and thus inflation). And today inflation is still a problem, independent on how much things have improved since last year. Everyone still feels the pinch because they have lost ground for 3 yrs under the Biden Administration. There’s no magic wand to fix that with out causing more inflation, which will be the lesson everyone will learn if Harris is elected.

Everyone has lost ground? Please provide this proof. I sure haven’t. This is what Jboiler23 is referencing. You’re throwing out a blanket statement that in no way, shape or form is true.

Again, not saying it’s perfect. But it never is. Some folks do better than others in the economy all the time, so your statement holds no weight.

And I stand by what I said earlier. If Trump were in charge right now, you would be raving about the economy and so would he.

And just for good measure, the flip side is when Trump left office, the economy was in tatters. And since a chunk of you still think he’s in charge, I guess whatever issues you think there are really is his fault. You keep painting yourself into a corner with your takes.

 

[Riveting]

And I stand by what I said earlier. If Trump were in charge right now, you would be raving about the economy and so would he.

Completely agree. If Trump were in charge, we would have a much better economy because he would not have signed the absurdly wasteful "Inflation Reduction Act" with its massive green pork, driving up inflation to 9% and causing the Fed to boost interest rates - putting homes and much else further out of reach for more people.

There you were whining on the hoops forum about being ganged up on in the GD, and here I am supporting your argument. Bet you feel pretty silly now that you realize the GD is a safe space for you.

 

[Purdue95Grad]

Completely agree. If Trump were in charge, we would have a much better economy because he would not have signed the absurdly wasteful "Inflation Reduction Act" with its massive green pork, driving up inflation to 9% and causing the Fed to boost interest rates - putting homes and much else further out of reach for more people.

There you were whining on the hoops forum about being ganged up on in the GD, and here I am supporting your argument. Bet you feel pretty silly now that you realize the GD is a safe space for you.

You really need to get some basic reading comprehension skills. I said if Trump were in charge right now he would be touting this economy. And so would you.

As for the rest, don’t worry about me, bucko. I’m also sure everyone on the main board knows you’re a low-level troll, at best.

 

[Riveting]

You really need to get some basic reading comprehension skills. I said if Trump were in charge right now he would be touting this economy. And so would you.

As for the rest, don’t worry about me, bucko. I’m also sure everyone on the main board knows you’re a low-level troll, at best.

I quoted your text in my reply.

What is this 'main board' for which you claim to know what everyone thinks?

 

[tjreese]

Ok, cool, but Trump thinks he IS the expert on everything:

https://www.axios.com/2019/01/05/everything-trump-says-he-knows-more-about-than-anybody

So, why aren't you on here posting clips of him making these patently ridiculous claims and talking out his ass as if it should be a reason not to vote for him? If YOU think that's a disqualifying issue, then clearly you're a hypocrite because one candidate is far worse than the other, and it's not Harris. If you DON'T think it's a disqualifying issue, then why bring it up?

It seems pretty natural that if you believe that both people are talking out their a$$ like politicians before, that actual actions or reality would be the deciding factor. Where would "talk" in the logic chain lie relative to actual reality of events that paint a picture of the intents absent the words.

 

[Purdue95Grad]

I quoted your text in my reply.

What is this 'main board' for which you claim to know what everyone thinks?

You sure did. And I was talking about the economy right now. What isn’t clicking for you, bud?

 

[Riveting]

You sure did. And I was talking about the economy right now. What isn’t clicking for you, bud?

The same things that aren't clicking for many Americans - open borders, Iran appeasement, green pork, coverup of presidential senility, and a presidential candidate so economically illiterate she is proposing price controls.

All of that impacts the economy. Any of it not clicking for you, bud?

 

[Purdue95Grad]

The same things that aren't clicking for many Americans - open borders, Iran appeasement, green pork, coverup of presidential senility, and a presidential candidate so economically illiterate she is proposing price controls.

All of that impacts the economy. Any of it not clicking for you, bud?

Let’s take these in order, shall we?

1. Open borders. This isn’t true. Some poor gaslighting by you
2. Iran appeasement. Huh?
3. Green pork. Huh?
4. Coverup. Mmmkay. If you say so. But please tell me about sharks and batteries like your guy does. Maybe table the senility talk, my man.
5. Price controls. Well nothing has been implemented so idk about this one. Probably won’t happen. But illiterate? Go read your Trump bible that you bought from Lee Greenwood.

 

[JBoiler23]

It seems pretty natural that if you believe that both people are talking out their a$$ like politicians before, that actual actions or reality would be the deciding factor. Where would "talk" in the logic chain lie relative to actual reality of events that paint a picture of the intents absent the words.

I agree, if both candidates are bullshitting, then bullshitting cannot be used as a distinguishing characteristic between them and we have to make a decision based on other factors. And while I think one of the two candidates bullshits far more often and far more egregiously than the other one, those other factors lead me clearly in one direction over the other.

 

[tjreese]

I agree, if both candidates are bullshitting, then bullshitting cannot be used as a distinguishing characteristic between them and we have to make a decision based on other factors. And while I think one of the two candidates bullshits far more often and far more egregiously than the other one, those other factors lead me clearly in one direction over the other.

If I understand correctly your approach with an understanding that bullshitting takes place on both sides to not move away from bullshitting words, but to determine which bullshitting person does it the most and go the opposite, fully aware that words spoken are meaningless, but still not ready to look at results or actions...a portfolio of contributions in some direction relative to the public. I don't think you are alone unless those are the "other factors" you mention, but hope others take the other path as it too makes all the difference

 

[JBoiler23]

If I understand correctly your approach

You didn't.

 

[Riveting]

Let’s take these in order, shall we?

1. Open borders. This isn’t true. Some poor gaslighting by you
2. Iran appeasement. Huh?
3. Green pork. Huh?
4. Coverup. Mmmkay. If you say so. But please tell me about sharks and batteries like your guy does. Maybe table the senility talk, my man.
5. Price controls. Well nothing has been implemented so idk about this one. Probably won’t happen. But illiterate? Go read your Trump bible that you bought from Lee Greenwood.

Thank you for summarizing your knowledge base in one word: huh.

"Vacant' would be better, but 'huh' is good since you provided it yourself, bud.

In other words, you have no understanding how 1-4 impact the economy, nor how 5 will impact the economy if enough nitwits vote for Kam to get her elected.

 

[tjreese]

You didn't.

you said because of bullshitting being on both sides, but more on one side than the other you would look at "other factors" which if listed would be interesting. Everyone knows what Trump wants to do and so I'm curious what other factors you hold more important that the spending that caused inflation and the disaster at the border just for starters. What are your "other factors" that are more important than what I mentioned Kamala wants to do ...and the comparison of the accomplishments between Kamala and Trump so that we know the "other factors" you lean to due to bullshitting as you say. That is what you said...other factors and NOT words which would be commendable to have concrete examples and not different shades of words...

 

[JBoiler23]

you said because of bullshitting being on both sides, but more on one side than the other you would look at "other factors" which if listed would be interesting.

I mean, this is ALMOST what I said, so kudos.

Everyone knows what Trump wants to do and so I'm curious what other factors you hold more important that the spending that caused inflation and the disaster at the border just for starters. What are your "other factors" that are more important than what I mentioned Kamala wants to do ...and the comparison of the accomplishments between Kamala and Trump so that we know the "other factors" you lean to due to bullshitting as you say. That is what you said...other factors and NOT words which would be commendable to have concrete examples and not different shades of words...

I mean, I don't know that it's worth discussing since you think the only thing that caused inflation was spending and you characterize the border as a "disaster." One thing is simply not true and the other is merely an opinion. And I don't have a list of things that I think are "more important." I have positions on issues of differing levels of importance and I select the candidate that I evaluate as aligning most closely with those positions. Never once have I agreed with a candidate on everything. So, while the following list is not necessarily a list of things that I think are each more important than inflation and the border, they are a few issues about which I disagree with Trump's position and that I would consider along with the two that you mentioned:

• Climate change
• Abortion
• Mass deportation
• Education
• Tax policy
• Foreign policy
• Building walls
• LGBT issues

So, there's 8 anyway, and you'll note that "mean tweets" is not among them. But, as a bonus, I'll also throw in that, as a general rule, I don't vote for those who have been convicted of criminal fraud (and adjudicated or admitting to have committed civil fraud other times), those who attempt to overturn an election, nor those who have been judged to be a rapist and otherwise admit to sexual assault, if I can avoid it.

 

[Purdue95Grad]

Thank you for summarizing your knowledge base in one word: huh.

"Vacant' would be better, but 'huh' is good since you provided it yourself, bud.

In other words, you have no understanding how 1-4 impact the economy, nor how 5 will impact the economy if enough nitwits vote for Kam to get her elected.

Maybe if you articulated what you meant instead of a bunch of word vomit in a post, I would care to go deeper with you. But what you wrote was standard gaslighting nonsense with exactly zero detail or data, so “huh” is the kind of response you deserve.

Now if you want to be serious, then be serious and put some context with your gibberish and we can go from there.

 

[tjreese]

I mean, this is ALMOST what I said, so kudos.

I mean, I don't know that it's worth discussing since you think the only thing that caused inflation was spending and you characterize the border as a "disaster." One thing is simply not true and the other is merely an opinion. And I don't have a list of things that I think are "more important." I have positions on issues of differing levels of importance and I select the candidate that I evaluate as aligning most closely with those positions. Never once have I agreed with a candidate on everything. So, while the following list is not necessarily a list of things that I think are each more important than inflation and the border, they are a few issues about which I disagree with Trump's position and that I would consider along with the two that you mentioned:

• Climate change
• Abortion
• Mass deportation
• Education
• Tax policy
• Foreign policy
• Building walls
• LGBT issues

So, there's 8 anyway, and you'll note that "mean tweets" is not among them. But, as a bonus, I'll also throw in that, as a general rule, I don't vote for those who have been convicted of criminal fraud (and adjudicated or admitting to have committed civil fraud other times), those who attempt to overturn an election, nor those who have been judged to be a rapist and otherwise admit to sexual assault, if I can avoid it.

good for you. I have no idea where Kamala is on these to understand your stance on such. Climate change as you know or should is in the hypothesis stage. It may or may not be a threat, but rest assured there is money to be made supporting it. There are a LOT or reasons to be agnostic starting with predicting outside the data when modeling and all the potential errors that exist. Last time I mentioned some elementary stats I was accused of a stat's lesson and multiple regression is more complex than the z score as is measurement error that exists in everything. It is the basis for prediction into the future or outside the data which all know is somewhat a misuse of regression due to the assumptions

Education is rarely understood by a politician and serves as a litmus test for stupidity when people want to throw money towards education at least under current spending approaches and is easily seen comparing the government data on k-12 spending and NAEP results where spending was thrown that way as a result of "A Nation AT Risk". I am two decades removed from being on top of educational issues where I would get 40-80 emails daily concerning education from education professionals with almost all being from inside the USA. It was over two decades ago I was chosen two years in a row to represent parents in a math forum between the NCTM and Mathematically Correct held by Lynne Cheney in D.C. However the extra security due to 911 added to a list of other problems and so I never went that year or the year after. I've forgot a lot since then, but probably know still more than most. Pedagogy approaches are interesting going back to around 1910 when John Dewey left Prussia with his 10 or 12...I can't recall... stating that the greatest good for "teachers" was social change. Teachers college president at the time said no wider road exists in Columbia than that between academics and education. Since the academics were not in education, immediately pedagogy became the expertise with William Heard Kilpatrick personally instructing roughly an estimated 35,000 future teachers in the "Project Method". A really good primer on educational reform is

Tax and foreign policy would be interesting as well, but would more opinionated as is for many.

 

[JBoiler23]

good for you. I have no idea where Kamala is on these to understand your stance on such. Climate change as you know or should is in the hypothesis stage. It may or may not be a threat, but rest assured there is money to be made supporting it. There are a LOT or reasons to be agnostic starting with predicting outside the data when modeling and all the potential errors that exist. Last time I mentioned some elementary stats I was accused of a stat's lesson and multiple regression is more complex than the z score as is measurement error that exists in everything. It is the basis for prediction into the future or outside the data which all know is somewhat a misuse of regression due to the assumptions

Education is rarely understood by a politician and serves as a litmus test for stupidity when people want to throw money towards education at least under current spending approaches and is easily seen comparing the government data on k-12 spending and NAEP results where spending was thrown that way as a result of "A Nation AT Risk". I am two decades removed from being on top of educational issues where I would get 40-80 emails daily concerning education from education professionals with almost all being from inside the USA. It was over two decades ago I was chosen two years in a row to represent parents in a math forum between the NCTM and Mathematically Correct held by Lynne Cheney in D.C. However the extra security due to 911 added to a list of other problems and so I never went that year or the year after. I've forgot a lot since then, but probably know still more than most. Pedagogy approaches are interesting going back to around 1910 when John Dewey left Prussia with his 10 or 12...I can't recall... stating that the greatest good for "teachers" was social change. Teachers college president at the time said no wider road exists in Columbia than that between academics and education. Since the academics were not in education, immediately pedagogy became the expertise with William Heard Kilpatrick personally instructing roughly an estimated 35,000 future teachers in the "Project Method". A really good primer on educational reform is

Tax and foreign policy would be interesting as well, but would more opinionated as is for many.

I don't want to go through all these, it'd take forever and we're not going to convince each other. But the fact that you call climate change a "hypothesis" is hysterical.

 

[tjreese]

I don't want to go through all these, it'd take forever and we're not going to convince each other. But the fact that you call climate change a "hypothesis" is hysterical.i

I'm not going to insult you, but if you don't have a background in multiple regression I understand why you would be confused and default to hypothesis of opinion in what makes sense to you. FWIW, probably 99+% don't have an academic background concerning measure. The point was that knowing what I do rather than being told just due to statistics prevents me from being a full believer, but by the same time I'm not going to say that all must not believe either with the point being that this situation is far from being determined.

Having a family with many previous and current teachers, A.D.s, principals and school board members, my understandings did not come by Osmosis but time spent reading and reviewing various writings and being on national educational forums. I was interested in understanding educational improvement. I loved the wit of Martin Kozloff concerning Direct Instruction, whole language and Phonics. https://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/home.html and looked to Wayne Bishop for math text book adoption reviews who just passed away April 30, 2024. https://www.calstatela.edu/nss/memoriam-wayne-bishop. I have the original 1981 study that led to TVAAS https://www.tn.gov/education/districts/federal-programs-and-oversight/data/tvaas.html given by Robert McLean https://www.knoxnews.com/obituaries/kns057790 to me as he essentially taught me SAS in the 80s when he worked with Bill Sanders to develop a statistical model on evaluation of teachers on "student gain", not where they were. So you see, I imagine there are other things I could say that you would find hysterical. I was particularly fond of Bob...as I was of Charlie Hicks https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/jconline/name/charles-hicks-obituary?id=18908486 and saddens me seeing these great minds no longer with us...

I still have Charlie's text, but have long forgotten much https://archive.org/details/fundamentalconce00hick_0/mode/2up

 

[JBoiler23]

I'm not going to insult you, but if you don't have a background in multiple regression I understand why you would be confused and default to hypothesis of opinion in what makes sense to you. FWIW, probably 99+% don't have an academic background concerning measure. The point was that knowing what I do rather than being told just due to statistics prevents me from being a full believer, but by the same time I'm not going to say that all must not believe either with the point being that this situation is far from being determined.

Having a family with many previous and current teachers, A.D.s, principals and school board members, my understandings did not come by Osmosis but time spent reading and reviewing various writings and being on national educational forums. I was interested in understanding educational improvement. I loved the wit of Martin Kozloff concerning Direct Instruction, whole language and Phonics. https://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/home.html and looked to Wayne Bishop for math text book adoption reviews who just passed away April 30, 2024. https://www.calstatela.edu/nss/memoriam-wayne-bishop. I have the original 1981 study that led to TVAAS https://www.tn.gov/education/districts/federal-programs-and-oversight/data/tvaas.html given by Robert McLean https://www.knoxnews.com/obituaries/kns057790 to me as he essentially taught me SAS in the 80s when he worked with Bill Sanders to develop a statistical model on evaluation of teachers on "student gain", not where they were. So you see, I imagine there are other things I could say that you would find hysterical. I was particularly fond of Bob...as I was of Charlie Hicks https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/jconline/name/charles-hicks-obituary?id=18908486 and saddens me seeing these great minds no longer with us...

I still have Charlie's text, but have long forgotten much https://archive.org/details/fundamentalconce00hick_0/mode/2up

What does "default to hypothesis of opinion" mean? I was only referring to the fact that the current scientific position on climate change is not a hypothesis and that calling it that demonstrates a significant misunderstanding as to what a hypothesis even is. I am glad you didn't say it was "just a theory," though, the way that people who don't know what a scientific theory is do to discount like, evolution.

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

Does it bother you that Harris was anointed without ever receiving a single vote nor having to run and earn the nomination?

Does it bother you that Walz was anointed as was Harris without having to campaign for the position?

Does it smack of racial/sexual discrimination to you that there are/may be far better democrat candidates that would do a hell of a lot better job than either of the anointed ones?

What happened to a Democrat convention where the candidate has to earn the position, selected by those elected to select the candidate?

Do you consider this a sham anointing, or do you think it's the fairest and most democratic method of selection?

And does it bother you that your party has been taken over by left wing radicals?

None of that is 1/2 the bs your guy puts out as his ONLY qualities.
You veterans must be twisting your souls in your shoes supporting this douche'bag.

Angering vets, Trump says civilian award is 'much better' than Medal of Honor

Trump: Medal of Honor recipients are 'either in very bad shape ... or they’re dead.'

www.usatoday.com

 

[tjreese]

What does "default to hypothesis of opinion" mean? I was only referring to the fact that the current scientific position on climate change is not a hypothesis and that calling it that demonstrates a significant misunderstanding as to what a hypothesis even is. I am glad you didn't say it was "just a theory," though, the way that people who don't know what a scientific theory is do to discount like, evolution.

Essentially, I said I was agnostic on it. I said it was far from being settled(man caused). If unsettled, and beliefs are held on both sides, then it is in a hypothesis stage, and that doesn't change because you believe it. I typed and said I'm not saying you are wrong or right, but there are way too many variables in play for me to believe it enough that it is an election issue of merit or that the USA should throw a lot of money at it and this is with the awareness that many hold that understand the biggest contributors will not make any adjustments. If my background was similar to yours then I would share your opinion. If your background was similar to mine, then you would share the same opinion I hold.

In some ways, this is similar to carbon dating accuracy. When somebody finds a relic or discovers something old, there is an attempt to put a date on it. Carbon dating may be the best thing at our disposal and the validation of an "era" may be teh range of things we believe took place at a certain time...which also may have been determined from carbon dating, but there is no way outside of guessing of knowing for certain the true age. There are many hypothetical judgments that went into play.

If I have a lot of data I'll call observed values on anything you desire, where the measurement has enough precision...say 10% of the magnitude gathered AND calibrated to a standard AND used in the same environment or close enough to where it was calibrated. That data is not true to some degree, even though you observed it. The observed value is made up of the actual value AND the measurement error and that exists in ALL observed values measured. The observed value is like the hypotenuse of a right triangle where the adjacent side may be the "true value" and the opposite side may be the measurement error or vice versa on the two sides...it doesn't matter. This is just a reality that exists in all observed values whether the measurement error is well known or not...none of that changes the fact that it exists in the instrument used to obtain a value.

YOu hope that IF you have enough REPEATED measures you arrive closer to the mean value of the interest in question, but do understand the variability is much smaller since you don't know the contribution of measurement error which has it's own components in play. When you understand this reality it colors your view or tempers it to some degree. Certainly gathering data (rather than say having equal spaced x values and "repeated" Y values obtained) which may be the best one can do does not have the same potential understanding as a controlled experiment...but that is not to imply it is not worthy...because it may be the best that can be done at the time. I've already written in the past how I could show foot size between a certain range HIGHLY correlated to academic understanding and it not be true...as we know only due to our background knowledge, but that wouldn't change the values obtained and the graphs shown.

None of this has touched on model variables, interactions and any polynomials in play and the requisite standard error of prediction calculated...assuming of course that you have repeated measures (with those inherent errors and containing teh variables of interest) which allow enough degrees of freedom (sample size) to test each variable and any interactions of interest in question to generate a high degree of confidence that your model after insignificant variables suspected in play are then assigned to the error term to be a good predictor when comparing the sum of squares of the model to the total sum of squares. Understanding this is why I have more questions than many and no doubt why many don't have the questions I do

 

[JBoiler23]

Essentially, I said I was agnostic on it. I said it was far from being settled(man caused). If unsettled, and beliefs are held on both sides, then it is in a hypothesis stage, and that doesn't change because you believe it. I typed and said I'm not saying you are wrong or right, but there are way too many variables in play for me to believe it enough that it is an election issue of merit or that the USA should throw a lot of money at it and this is with the awareness that many hold that understand the biggest contributors will not make any adjustments. If my background was similar to yours then I would share your opinion. If your background was similar to mine, then you would share the same opinion I hold.

In some ways, this is similar to carbon dating accuracy. When somebody finds a relic or discovers something old, there is an attempt to put a date on it. Carbon dating may be the best thing at our disposal and the validation of an "era" may be teh range of things we believe took place at a certain time...which also may have been determined from carbon dating, but there is no way outside of guessing of knowing for certain the true age. There are many hypothetical judgments that went into play.

If I have a lot of data I'll call observed values on anything you desire, where the measurement has enough precision...say 10% of the magnitude gathered AND calibrated to a standard AND used in the same environment or close enough to where it was calibrated. That data is not true to some degree, even though you observed it. The observed value is made up of the actual value AND the measurement error and that exists in ALL observed values measured. The observed value is like the hypotenuse of a right triangle where the adjacent side may be the "true value" and the opposite side may be the measurement error or vice versa on the two sides...it doesn't matter. This is just a reality that exists in all observed values whether the measurement error is well known or not...none of that changes the fact that it exists in the instrument used to obtain a value.

YOu hope that IF you have enough REPEATED measures you arrive closer to the mean value of the interest in question, but do understand the variability is much smaller since you don't know the contribution of measurement error which has it's own components in play. When you understand this reality it colors your view or tempers it to some degree. Certainly gathering data (rather than say having equal spaced x values and "repeated" Y values obtained) which may be the best one can do does not have the same potential understanding as a controlled experiment...but that is not to imply it is not worthy...because it may be the best that can be done at the time. I've already written in the past how I could show foot size between a certain range HIGHLY correlated to academic understanding and it not be true...as we know only due to our background knowledge, but that wouldn't change the values obtained and the graphs shown.

None of this has touched on model variables, interactions and any polynomials in play and the requisite standard error of prediction calculated...assuming of course that you have repeated measures (with those inherent errors and containing teh variables of interest) which allow enough degrees of freedom (sample size) to test each variable and any interactions of interest in question to generate a high degree of confidence that your model after insignificant variables suspected in play are then assigned to the error term to be a good predictor when comparing the sum of squares of the model to the total sum of squares. Understanding this is why I have more questions than many and no doubt why many don't have the questions I do

OMG, it was a simple question...

 

[Riveting]

Maybe if you articulated what you meant instead of a bunch of word vomit in a post, I would care to go deeper with you. But what you wrote was standard gaslighting nonsense with exactly zero detail or data, so “huh” is the kind of response you deserve.

Now if you want to be serious, then be serious and put some context with your gibberish and we can go from there.

Gaslighting on the open border? Huh?

In his opening line of questioning, Chairman Green questioned Wray on the dangers posed by the millions of known gotaways at the Southwest border:

“Since January 2021, approximately 1.8 million illegal alien gotaways who evaded border patrol and entered our country, and this doesn’t even account for the unknown gotaways,which former Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz testified before this Committee could be about 20 percent of the [total] number. Meaning the real number of gotaways is well over two million. Can the FBI guarantee the American people that known or suspected terrorists, including any from Hamas or other tour groups, or not amongst those gotaways?”

Wray answered:

“The group of people that you’re talking about are a source of great concern for us. That’s why we are aggressively using all 56 of our joint terrorism task forces.”

Chairman Green continued:

“But there’s really no way for you to guarantee Hamas isn’t in them. … Do you think that number, that increased number increases the threat to the American people?”

Wray answered:

“I think any time you have a group of people in the United States we don’t know nearly enough about, that is a source of concern for us.”

Chairman Green continued:

“So, wording it maybe another way if that number were lower and the border wasn’t as open as it is, and we’d be safer?”

Wray answered:

“I think greater fidelity about who is coming into this country and how they are getting in is essential.”

Chairman Green continued:

“Those individuals on that [terrorist] watchlist that we talk about, why do you think four years before this, there were only eleven and suddenly there were 294 in the past few years? Why do you think that is so?”

Wray answered:

“I can tell you the threats that come from the other side of the border are very much consuming FBI field offices, not just in the border states.”

Chairman Green asked:

“I agree. If I heard you correctly, what you just said is that every state is a border state now. Is that what you just said?”

Wray concluded:

“I didn’t put it quite that way, but the threats that come from the other side of the border are affecting every state, yes.”

FBI Director Wray Confirms the Border Crisis Poses Major Homeland Security Threat, DHS Secretary Mayorkas Stonewalls – Committee on Homeland Security

homeland.house.gov

 

[tjreese]

OMG, it was a simple question...

...and I provided the reasoning for my position. What I listed were things that would allow me to discriminate outside of another's opinion to lead to why I am not head and shoulders flipping over with no doubt it is anything other than a real problem. You are welcome to list the things you have outside of opinion as to why you are not indifferent, but a 100% believer outside someone telling you something. I admit I don't know for certain and yet it appears you know for certain enough that it was one of your concerns in voting.

 

[JBoiler23]

...and I provided the reasoning for my position. What I listed were things that would allow me to discriminate outside of another's opinion to lead to why I am not head and shoulders flipping over with no doubt it is anything other than a reals problem. You are welcome to list the things you have outside of opinion as to why you are not indifferent, but a 100% believer outside someone telling you something. I admit I don't know for certain and yet it appears you know for certain enough that it was one of your concerns in voting.

I was only asking what the phrase meant, because it didn't make any sense, given my understanding of the definition of those specific words. What is a "hypothesis of opinion" that you think I've defaulted to?

 

[tjreese]

I was only asking what the phrase meant, because it didn't make any sense, given my understanding of the definition of those specific words. What is a "hypothesis of opinion" that you think I've defaulted to?

100% that climate change is a threat in the near future enough that it was one of your main interests in voting. It would not be a main interest for me since I don't really know if it were a threat and if it were a threat I would also understand that China and India are not going to pay the price the USA would. Since I admit I don't know....I consider the theories to be hypothetical at this time since I have questions that I think are important to understand before I remove any doubt. You seem to hold an opinion that the hypothesis is not such, but a known...and on that I disagree. I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right...I'm saying I have legitimate concerns that prevent me from being sold on it being a need to consider in voting and know the money trail it will emit if Kamala is elected. I hold my opinion due to a certain knowledge in a relevant domain that I revealed in addition to any readings that also shed doubt. You were also interested in education and I have decades of interest...long before it became fashionable and I suspect we have different approaches in that.

I've never stated you were wrong, but instead offered why I have doubts. You can share your relevant knowledge in why you are a believer if you desire...particularly knowing the tremendous cost to this country and if you don't wish to share that is fine. Abortion was another area you thought was important and I assume you understand it was rightfully placed back to the states after a bad legal 1972 decision that even Gingsburg knew was BAD law, but still voted for BAD law or do you want to take this highly polarized topic and dictate from the blob rather than each state closer to its population. There are a Lot of people that believe the world is threatened by uncontrolled climate change...many more than have some of my concerns...I get that. There are some that believe the world temperature is a sine wave, due to their understandings of it being cooler and hotter than any temp on record taken the last few decades. If a sine wave...the obvious question is not only what phase are we in, but how many years comprise PI/2? Sooooooo many questions that exist...

 

[JBoiler23]

100% that climate change is a threat in the near future enough that it was one of your main interests in voting. It would not be a main interest for me since I don't really know if it were a threat and if it were a threat I would also understand that China and India are not going to pay the price the USA would. Since I admit I don't know....I consider the theories to be hypothetical at this time since I have questions that I think are important to understand before I remove any doubt. You seem to hold an opinion that the hypothesis is not such, but a known...and on that I disagree. I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right...I'm saying I have legitimate concerns that prevent me from being sold on it being a need to consider in voting and know the money trail it will emit if Kamala is elected. I hold my opinion due to a certain knowledge in a relevant domain that I revealed in addition to any readings that also shed doubt. You were also interested in education and I have decades of interest...long before it became fashionable and I suspect we have different approaches in that.

I've never stated you were wrong, but instead offered why I have doubts. You can share your relevant knowledge in why you are a believer if you desire...particularly knowing the tremendous cost to this country and if you don't wish to share that is fine. Abortion was another area you thought was important and I assume you understand it was rightfully placed back to the states after a bad legal 1972 decision that even Gingsburg knew was BAD law, but still voted for BAD law or do you want to take this highly polarized topic and dictate from the blob rather than each state closer to its population. There are a Lot of people that believe the world is threatened by uncontrolled climate change...many more than have some of my concerns...I get that. There are some that believe the world temperature is a sine wave, due to their understandings of it being cooler and hotter than any temp on record taken the last few decades. If a sine wave...the obvious question is not only what phase are we in, but how many years comprise PI/2? Sooooooo many questions that exist...

I didn't need you to explain your position to me again, I understood it the first time. But since you don't seem to understand my question, I'm just gonna let it go. It's not that deep.

But, for the record, by definition in the scientific sense, a "theory" cannot be "hypothetical."

 

[tjreese]

I didn't need you to explain your position to me again, I understood it the first time. But since you don't seem to understand my question, I'm just gonna let it go. It's not that deep.

But, for the record, by definition in the scientific sense, a "theory" cannot be "hypothetical."

Okay, but I see theories composed of many hypothetical situations in play to create a theory under certain conditions (hypothetical) in variables not understood prior to testing. I believe that all variation we see has direct contributions to that variation even if we can't explain them at this time. It is just the way I view potential sources of variation whether known now or not

 

[JBoiler23]

Okay, but I see theories composed of many hypothetical situations in play to create a theory under certain conditions (hypothetical) in variables not understood prior to testing. I believe that all variation we see has direct contributions to that variation even if we can't explain them at this time. It is just the way I view potential sources of variation whether known now or not

Seriously dude, this makes no sense, you're talking in circles.

 

[tjreese]

Seriously dude, this makes no sense, you're talking in circles.

In every study that has measures taken in "repeated" conditions there is an error or variation. An error is assigned because what caused the error in "repeated" conditions of study is unknown or it would have been listed in the model for consideration to be studied and sample size would be needed to test that condition. Obviously there was a hypothetical understanding of what was and what wasn't important in the theory to determine what sources of variation were important enough to understand and yet it is entirely possible that the model explains very little of the variation in that a hypothetical belief built into the model as a means of understanding the theory was missed. It's okay I'm not going to mansplain things anymore...

 

[z_one]

I know that they don't have to campaign though many do for the position. My point is that they're usually introduced at the convention, and with the way the Dem convo is ran, there can't be a surprise.

How has my party been taken over by radicals? Trump, in his four-year term proved that he's just the opposite. No wars, low inflation, tiny amount of illegals, and I can go on. Pence in no way is a radical, but because he's a Christian, the left can't stand that and worked very hard to convince all that he and Trump were.

I'm a life long Republican that left the party because of Trump. My cardinal rule is that I won't vote for a draft dodger. EVER. How you can claim that Trump isn't a radical?. I'm a conservative(not a fake spend thrift Trump one. Trump spent more money over 4 years than any other president in history). I'll vote for Harris/Walz (like many sane republicans I know) and then hope that the republican party gets back to reality and nominates a decent conservative in 2028. The anointing of Trump as the party representative is sad. No, I'm not afraid of them turning us into a socialist country. I'm more afraid of Trump turning us into a facist country. There will be enough republicans elected(many of whom I will vote for) to hold Harris/Walz in check and of course there is also the SCOTUS.