Had the opportunity to catch up with some close friends these past few days over the fourth weekend who would know a thing or two about where this might be headed. The consensus is below from conversations with some college athletic administrators who would know some things.
My best guess:
B1G:
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
MSU
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
OSU
PSU
Purdue
Rutgers
Wisconsin
USC
UCLA
That's 16.
Top 4 additions seen in order of preference:
ND - national brand
Oregon - national brand / Nike - AAU
Washington - Seattle - AAU
Stanford - Nor Cal and Academics - AAU
Additional 4 additions if ACC falls apart (this is a big if as I'll describe below as they think the ACC stands as is though this).
UVA - AAU
UNC - AAU
Duke - AAU
GT - AAU
SEC:
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Ole Miss
MSU
Missouri
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma
Texas
That's 16.
4 additions if ACC falls apart:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
VT
Big12:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
KSU
OSU
TCU
Texas Tech
WVU
BYU
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston
That's 12
In this scenario they would likely join with the remaining Pac12 teams:
Arizona
ASU - thought is Phoenix is desirable for the B1G, but academics, non AAU status are a hinderance
Berkeley
Boulder
OSU
Utah
WSU
That would give them 19 and make them coast to coast. Nothing great here, but they survive and perhaps pluck 1 more team to make 20.
I think what is most likely to happen after talking this weekend and throwing out ideas with people who would be part of these discussions is the above with the
This seems to be the consensus thought of what will happen as soon as this summer, to in the next couple of years:
B1G going to 20 with ND, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford.
SEC staying at 16
Big12 and Pac 12 merging for a 19/20 team conference that will be a bit of everything and a bit of nothing.
ACC staying at 14 as is (less ND).
Most think the ACC doesn't get broken up because there are not enough parts to send through the B1G and SEC. They are driving this along with the networks. If the ACC did break up the thought is those lesser ACC teams are in the worst position for safety with the presumed lesser B12 teams being safe by merger with the Pac12. (However you would define "safe" in this scenario).
ACC schools:
Neither B1G or SEC would want:
BC
NC State
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Wake
SEC only would be interested in:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Both B1G and SEC would be interested in:
UNC - seen as a gold standard here
UVA - seen as a great partner for both conferences
Duke - potentially pairing with UNC
GT - potentially going B1G with getting Atlanta foothold
VT - potentially pairing with UVA or going SEC for to break into that mid Atlantic footprint.
But the thought is the ACC doesn't break up as I said above. Take it for what it is worth.
My best guess:
B1G:
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
MSU
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
OSU
PSU
Purdue
Rutgers
Wisconsin
USC
UCLA
That's 16.
Top 4 additions seen in order of preference:
ND - national brand
Oregon - national brand / Nike - AAU
Washington - Seattle - AAU
Stanford - Nor Cal and Academics - AAU
Additional 4 additions if ACC falls apart (this is a big if as I'll describe below as they think the ACC stands as is though this).
UVA - AAU
UNC - AAU
Duke - AAU
GT - AAU
SEC:
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Ole Miss
MSU
Missouri
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma
Texas
That's 16.
4 additions if ACC falls apart:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
VT
Big12:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
KSU
OSU
TCU
Texas Tech
WVU
BYU
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston
That's 12
In this scenario they would likely join with the remaining Pac12 teams:
Arizona
ASU - thought is Phoenix is desirable for the B1G, but academics, non AAU status are a hinderance
Berkeley
Boulder
OSU
Utah
WSU
That would give them 19 and make them coast to coast. Nothing great here, but they survive and perhaps pluck 1 more team to make 20.
I think what is most likely to happen after talking this weekend and throwing out ideas with people who would be part of these discussions is the above with the
This seems to be the consensus thought of what will happen as soon as this summer, to in the next couple of years:
B1G going to 20 with ND, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford.
SEC staying at 16
Big12 and Pac 12 merging for a 19/20 team conference that will be a bit of everything and a bit of nothing.
ACC staying at 14 as is (less ND).
Most think the ACC doesn't get broken up because there are not enough parts to send through the B1G and SEC. They are driving this along with the networks. If the ACC did break up the thought is those lesser ACC teams are in the worst position for safety with the presumed lesser B12 teams being safe by merger with the Pac12. (However you would define "safe" in this scenario).
ACC schools:
Neither B1G or SEC would want:
BC
NC State
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Wake
SEC only would be interested in:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Both B1G and SEC would be interested in:
UNC - seen as a gold standard here
UVA - seen as a great partner for both conferences
Duke - potentially pairing with UNC
GT - potentially going B1G with getting Atlanta foothold
VT - potentially pairing with UVA or going SEC for to break into that mid Atlantic footprint.
But the thought is the ACC doesn't break up as I said above. Take it for what it is worth.
