Great HS economics scenario.
In your example, your assuming a perfect world in which only the Barista is the cost increase. But inflation causes taxes to go up (because of the increased property value), the cost of coffee goes up (due to higher wages for coffee workers and higher transportation costs). Not to mention that every 5bux doesn’t have a store that sells 25 cups/Barista/hour. Does that drive thru line get smaller at 11am or 2pm versus the 7-9am time slot??
If the Barista is the only one who sees wages go up, then at some point, other workers will quit their jobs to be the Barista (due to better wages or even easier working conditions such as pouring coffee versus working on a factory floor), which then cause the other firms (restaurants, bars and other service industries) to raise wages to compete with 5bux in hiring good personnel (that’s a real 2022 scenario) All of which, in turn, causes the inflation described above.
You also failed to account for higher FICA tax that the employer has to pay and not just for Barista #1, but for all Baristas. Also, the increased tax on the increased revenue. Oh, and if the Barista wants a raise, doesn’t the store manager want a raise. And so on, and so on and so on.
Oh, and there’s the impact of competition. What if Dunkin Donuts opens a store next to 5bux, and the cost of coffee goes up by your 0.16 cents (plus the costs of other Baristas and the Store Manager and said taxes) the cup cost really goes up something closer to $0.50. All of the sudden, 5bux sells 10% less cups of coffee and the revenue falls until the point in the future that 5bux has to close (just like the stores in LA or SD).
But just raise the wages for the one Barista worker. I am sure he is doing a great job and should command a raise. (Isn’t the Barista making tips? Should that be counted as part of his ability to afford 3 cups of coffee?).
in 2020, everyone wanted to make $15 the minimum wage. I would guess that many firms are now paying that and did it solve the “fair wage argument”? Are people at those $15/hr jobs satisfied? My guess is No! Also, why doesn’t the Barista move to LA where baristas are likely making $15/hr including tips.