This election is a science project

[qazplm]

Given the two campaigns, and the massive gulf in the sophistication and volume of their get out the vote efforts...this election will tell us whether GOTV efforts make a difference or not.

If they do, then Clinton should over-perform her polling results...if they don't, then she won't.

By how much she over-performs, assuming she does, will give us an idea of how much GOTV efforts are worth.

We've never had this much of a gulf between the two parties in GOTV efforts and funding in the modern era, so it will be interesting.

I predict GOTV does matter, and it will end up giving Hillary leads not necessarily reflected in the polling.

 

[prophit44]

I agree.

I do think that GOP's version of GOTV has grown somewhat in sophistication from previous years. However, what they have is run by the RNC with the primary objective of getting people out for Senate and House races down-ballot. So I would presume some success for them in that swim lane. However, I think that someone making the assumption that those RNC voters are consistently Trump voters is going to prove somewhat inaccurate. Trump campaign has essentially nothing other than social media contact lists. Nothing meaningful that is physically present on the ground in BG states.

 

[SDBoiler1]

Given the two campaigns, and the massive gulf in the sophistication and volume of their get out the vote efforts...this election will tell us whether GOTV efforts make a difference or not.

If they do, then Clinton should over-perform her polling results...if they don't, then she won't.

By how much she over-performs, assuming she does, will give us an idea of how much GOTV efforts are worth.

We've never had this much of a gulf between the two parties in GOTV efforts and funding in the modern era, so it will be interesting.

I predict GOTV does matter, and it will end up giving Hillary leads not necessarily reflected in the polling.

Here's an early data point for you: North Carolina. If this is to be believed, advantage Trump in NC. You guys act like the Ds will always get the same or better turnout after Obama. HRC is not Obama (not even close, and Trump isn't Romney - not even close), and the key demographics that won Obama the election in 2012 are not as energized for her.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

 

[qazplm]

Here's an early data point for you: North Carolina. If this is to be believed, advantage Trump in NC. You guys act like the Ds will always get the same or better turnout after Obama. HRC is not Obama (not even close, and Trump isn't Romney - not even close), and the key demographics that won Obama the election in 2012 are not as energized for her.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

it's going to be a long night for you.

 

[prophit44]

Here's an early data point for you: North Carolina. If this is to be believed, advantage Trump in NC. You guys act like the Ds will always get the same or better turnout after Obama. HRC is not Obama (not even close, and Trump isn't Romney - not even close), and the key demographics that won Obama the election in 2012 are not as energized for her.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

Look, this isn't some emotional pissing contest based on who I want to win. That's why Qaz referred to it as a science project. One campaign has a sophisticated infrastructure to get their voters identified and to the polls, and the other largely doesn't. That doesn't mean that there won't be angry hordes of self-motivated aspiring white nationalists lined up tomorrow... it just means that there won't be a sophisticated infrastructure operating to turn them out.

 

[TOKenBoiler]

Here's an early data point for you: North Carolina. If this is to be believed, advantage Trump in NC. You guys act like the Ds will always get the same or better turnout after Obama. HRC is not Obama (not even close, and Trump isn't Romney - not even close), and the key demographics that won Obama the election in 2012 are not as energized for her.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

SPOT ON!

 

[CWS]

Look, this isn't some emotional pissing contest based on who I want to win. That's why Qaz referred to it as a science project. One campaign has a sophisticated infrastructure to get their voters identified and to the polls, and the other largely doesn't. That doesn't mean that there won't be angry hordes of self-motivated aspiring white nationalists lined up tomorrow... it just means that there won't be a sophisticated infrastructure operating to turn them out.

Or, the R ground game was much better than was given credit for

 

[TOKenBoiler]

Or, the R ground game was much better than was given credit for

I'm sorry, I think it was the self-motivated angry hordes of aspiring white nationalists. I saw them goose stepping down my street in their brown shirts and carrying torches and pitchforks on the way to the polling place.

 

[CWS]

I'm sorry, I think it was the self-motivated angry hordes of aspiring white nationalists. I saw them goose stepping down my street in their brown shirts and carrying torches and pitchforks on the way to the polling place.

They are sneaky like that. They go out and vote in President Obama and THEN vote out Mrs Clinton to secretly hide their racism.