Purdue got back on the right side of the ledger last Saturday...next up Northwestern.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Northwestern Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. Note: Purdue did not release a 2-deep chart again in this week’s game notes so we’re basically going with what we believe to be the starting lineup. Speculate at your own risk as to the “why” the 2-deep wasn’t released.
- Another week and the opposing O-Lines keep getting smaller. This week Purdue’s defense will face a Northwestern O-line which will be the smallest (outside of Purdue) in the B10. The line is well below average for the B10 and all opponents coming in at 302.0 lbs. However, they are above average in terms of experience for any Purdue opponent and the B10 coming in at 3.0 years of experience. Collectively, they have 87 career starts with essentially three new starters this season.
- This week’s Purdue’s D-Line (Kalaftkis, Higgins, Johnson, Barnes) averages about 267.5 lbs, down from last year’s 283.8 lbs. (When Watts is in, that number jumps 10lbs per man) They will be outweighed by the Northwestern line by about 34.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.25 years, equal to last year’s line even with Johnson and Karlaftkis starting. The size of this group is well below average for a B10 team and also well below average in terms of experience. As a unit they have 56 collective starts.
- Purdue’s LBs (Graham, Holt, Alexander) come in at 225.0 lbs, down significantly from last year’s 240.0 lbs and are at 2.33 years of experience with the absence of Jones and Graham listed in his place. They have a collective 34 starts between them (FYI Bailey had 40 individually). Size wise, this group is slightly below average for the B10 and all opponents and like the D-Line, they are well below the average in terms of experience.
- Purdue’s O-line (Hermanns, Stickford, Garvin, McCann, Brammel) will average 297.0 lbs per man, down by 2 lbs from last year’s 299.0 lbs. Purdue's size is well below average compared to the rest of the B10 and other Purdue opponents. They average 2.40 years of experience, a decrease from last season’s 3.4 years. Their experience puts them below the B10 average and also below all opponents. Collectively, with the reshuffle, this group has very few starts, 84.
- Northwestern features a traditional 4-3 front. At 282.5 lbs, Northwestern’s D-line is above average for the D-Line units Purdue will face this year. They will also be slightly above average in terms of experience with a 3.0 year average. They started out the year with one of the DTs as a new starter while the other three were multi-year players. Due to injury, there is now a new starter at the other DT spot and one of their experienced DEs (35 starts) is now out this week with Adebomiwa Adebawore making his first start on Saturday. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 16.5 lbs per man. With basically three new starters, they have just 49 combined starts.
- The Northwestern LBs come in above average for the B10 and for Purdue’s opponents at 232.0 lbs. They are above the B10 average in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position. Their collective starts are double what Nebraska had at 68 with MLB Fisher having the bulk of them (34).
Vegas predicts Purdue by 1 1/2 points (Opened up as a “pick”)
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 22-21 Purdue win
MasseyRatings predicts a 21-19 Northwestern win
Sagarin predicts a 1.5 point Northwestern win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 6.79 Northwestern win.
Last week’s game should be a good confidence boost for the Boilers. Too often, we’ve seen Purdue unable to make that last minute drive for a score or defensively, be unable to close out games and seal a win. Last week we saw both.
Apparently, it’s no longer “Next Man Up”. It’s now “Last Man Up” in terms of Purdue’s QB position.
There’s never a good week to work in a new QB but this week, facing a offensively challenged Northwestern team, is probably the best alternative outside of Rutgers.
It’s somewhat telling about Northwestern that Vegas had no issues putting a betting line on this game with such an unknown as Purdue’s QB, O’Connell (“QBOC”). To boot, there may be some question surrounding Northwestern’s QB situation as Hunter Johnson appeared to be slightly injured following an uncalled cheap shot during their game with IU with about 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.
It will interesting to see how Purdue’s offense now evolves with QBOC at the helm. As noted in Coach Brohm’s press conference, it’s up to the coaches to protect him from injury as his backup is true frosh Piferi or part time punter, Corollo. (Wonder just how bad Sipe’s back is hurt?) You might see someone line up in a Wildcat formation at some time, except the obvious Wildcat QB, Sparks, is also out. Anthrop might be a possibility here as well depending upon his health.
Northwestern’s defense is not performing to the level they were at last season or even to a level you’d expect based on their talent and experience. Total Defense is about the middle of the pack in the league, which isn’t bad considering how good some of the other B10 teams are performing, however, Scoring Defense is at the low end of the league at 11th, giving up 29.0 points per game, and just ahead of Nebraska. IU just put 34 points up on them last week.
Their recent injuries along their front line are also not helping matters. What started out the season as a fairly experienced front has had to replace one DT the prior two games and will have to replace a very experienced DE in Samdup Miller with a true freshman DE against Purdue.
What’s also not helping Northwestern is their propensity to giving up turnovers often resulting in short fields and their lack of forcing turnovers providing those same short fields to their offense. For the conference portion of the season, Northwestern is a -1.67 in Turnover Margin (Purdue, for all it’s miscues are a -0.5 in Turnover Margin). That -1.67 mark is tied with Rutgers for last in the league.
While it’s not terribly surprising that Northwestern’s offense is lowly rated in Red Zone offense, scoring on 72.7% of their trips, good for 12th in the league, it is surprising that their defense is ranked even worse at 13th, giving up scores on 91.7% of opponent’s trips into the Red Zone (Nebraska is last at 92.9%).
Drilling down into those numbers a little bit. Northwestern’s Offense has scored TDs on just 4 of their 11 trips into the Red Zone (36.4%). The 11 trips into the RZ is next to last (Rutgers) in the B10. Conversely, Purdue leads the league in Red Zone offense at 95.2% and has scored TDs on 15 of those 21 trips (71.4%).
Northwestern’s Defense has given up TDs on 62.5% of the opponent’s 24 trips into the RZ. Those 24 RZ appearances are 5th worst in the conference. Purdue has given up 12 TDs in their opponent’s 21 trips (57.1%) inside the RZ.
Purdue is still giving up a good deal of Passing Yards (235.2 ypg) compared to Northwestern (196.2 ypg) but their Pass Efficiency Defense (143.0) is better than Northwestern’s (143.9) likely due to Purdue’s 5 interceptions compared to just 1 for Northwestern.
Purdue’s streak of not giving up a TD through the air extended to 18 quarters, having last giving up a passing TD to PSU in the 2nd quarter of that game. Over that period, Purdue has averaged giving up just a hair over 180 yards per game through the air. That number over the entire conference schedule would put them at 6th in the league.
The 7 TDs that Purdue has given up the entire conference season does put them at 6th in the league in that category. OSU, Minny and Iowa are tied for 1st giving up just 3 the entire conference season. You’ll note that in Minnesota’s and Iowa’s case, they gave up 2 of their 3 against Purdue.
Purdue’s streak may very well be extended as Northwestern’s pass offense is especially anemic, completing just 47.4% of their passes and having just 1 passing TD while throwing 8 INTs. All three stats are league lows.
Coming into the season, highly regarded transfer QB, Hunter Johnson, was supposed to take over the reins after sitting out last season following his transfer from Clemson. After starting the first four games of the season, he did not play in their next three games before making an appearance in relief of Northwestern’s own, 3rd string Aidan, in Aidan Smith. His absence on the field was explained this week as Johnson’s mother has been battling cancer and needed time to deal with her treatment.
I’d expect Smith to again start this Saturday especially with Johnson’s status being questionable.
Northwestern’s running game is only slightly better than their passing game averaging only 16 yards per game more than Purdue. Their top back, Bowser, has been dinged up and has missed several games this season. In his absence, Drake Anderson (4.5 ypc) has stepped up and averages 55.9 yards per game.
Through the air, their top receiver is Riley Lees (4.3 rpg/30.2 ypg). As meager as that stat is, it’s still good for 11th highest receptions per game average for conference games only. Purdue has three players in the top 8 in the league (Bell 3rd, Hopkins 7th, Anthrop 8th).
For the entire season, Lees has just 28 receptions for 192 yards and averages just 24 yards receiving per game and 6.9 yards per reception. His stats are what you'd expect more out a TE than an outside WR. For perspective, Rondale Moore has more receptions (29) and nearly 200 yards more receiving (387) playing in just 3+ games.
Lees is also their most talented KO returner coming in at 3rd in the league in with a 26.0 yard average on a limited number (4). Their top punt returner is JJ Jefferson who’s 4th in the league with a 13.0 yard average, again on limited attempts (3). (Again, these are conference only numbers).
It will be critical for Purdue to limit any Northwestern returns potentially providing their struggling offense with improved field position. Conversely, Purdue has some Special Teams issues of their own to clean up to avoid losing field position on their own.
Overall, Northwestern is last in the league in 3rd and 4th down conversions converting 31.6% and 27.8% respectively.
During conference play, Northwestern’s scoring output of 6.8 points per game has been only better than Rutgers (4.0 ppg). Even including their non-conference games, they’re only scoring 9.8 points per game. Over their last three games, they’ve managed to score a single field goal in two of those games, getting shut out in the 3rd. Their “high” scoring mark was surprisingly in their 4th game of the year against Wisconsin when they put 15 points on the board. The second most points they scored in a conference game has been 10, accomplished twice (MSU & Nebraska). The most points they’ve scored in any game has been against UNLV, lighting up the scoreboard for 31 points that contest, or in other words, 10 more points than they’ve scored in all 6 of their conference games combined.
Northwestern has gone 206 minutes and 40 seconds of game time since scoring their last TD (11:20 left in the 3rd quarter of their game with Nebraska).
As noted, Purdue’s defense has improved as of late allowing just 335 yards per game over the last three contests and 22.75 points per game over the last 4 games. While, far from being considered a “shut down” defense, it is an improvement over the first part of the season when they allowed 452.8 yards and 33 points per game over their first 5 games.
It should also help them that they won’t be facing QBs like Nate Stanley or Adrian Martinez and wideouts like Spielman and Robinson this week.
On Northwestern’s defensive side, their top DE, Gaziano, has been performing roughly at the same level as Purdue’s Karlaftkis leading Northwestern in sacks (0.67 per game) and Tackles for Loss (1.17 per game). Karlaftkis is actually better averaging 0.75 sacks and 1.5 TFL per game. Gaziano is closing in on the NCAA career sack total record of 31. He currently has 26.5 and is behind OSU’s Chase Young who has 27.5.
Linebacker Paddy Fisher gets more publicity but running mate Blake Gallagher has more tackles for the conference season with 53 combined (solo & assisted) tackles. Fisher isn’t exactly slacking off as he has 46. Purdue’s Ben Holt continues to stay near the top of the league stats as he bests Gallagher by one with 54 tackles.
While not as poor as Northwestern’s offense, their defense is allowing opposing teams to convert 3rd downs at 37.9% (11th in the league).
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings:
Purdue...........................Northwestern
QB O’Connell NR..........Smith 3* (Johnson was 5* at Clemson)
RB Doerue 3*.................Bowser 3*
WR/FB Anthrop 3*.........McGowan 3*
WR Bell 4*.........………..Lees 3*
WR Anderson 3*............Bowman 3*
TE/SB Hopkins 2*.........Mangieri 3*
LT Hermanns 2*........….Slater 3*
LG Stickford 3*.............. Urban 3*
C Garvin NR...................Thomas 3*
RG McCann 3*.............. Gerak 3*
RT Miller 3*.....................Vogel 3*
DE Karlaftis 4*.................Gaziano 3*
DT Johnson 3*……….….A. Miller 2*
DT Watts 2*….................Saunders 3*
DE/LB Barnes 2*.............Adebawore 3*
LB Alexander 3*....……...Gallagher 3*
LB Holt NR................……Fisher 3*
LB Graham 3*...………...Bergin NR
CB Trice 3*.........…........Newsome 3*
CB Mackey 3*................Ruiz 3*
FS Mosley 3*......…........Pace 3*
SS Thieneman NR....…. Whitlock 2*
Looking back and comparing recent recruiting classes typically doesn’t bode well for Purdue. It’s no secret that even though they brought in some talented players the prior staff did not recruit full classes at a B10 level.
Comparing Northwestern’s classes and Purdue’s classes however comes in closer than you might expect. Simply, averaging the ranks of the 2015 through 2019 classes shows Purdue’s average class rank at 57.4th. Northwestern’s average over those same classes is just slightly higher at 53.4th. Those are just rough averages without taking account player usage. I would suspect that if you broke it down to account for number of snaps, Purdue’s would rank higher.
Purdue has gone 0-3 in road games this season with this week’s game being their best chance to get a road win with Wisconsin the remaining road tilt.
It’s been nine years since Purdue last beat Northwestern, that win, coincidentally occurred on the road in Evanston. With Northwestern’s sub-par performance this season, their attendance should be down in what is already a small stadium. Normally, I’d expect a strong Purdue showing but that may somewhat subdued with how Purdue has also performed this season.
Still, it was a good showing in the stands last week against Nebraska, obviously helped by the Husker faithful, but strong nonetheless. Fans in the Chicago area may turn out as Purdue still is mathematically eligible for a bowl game. Something, the Northwestern fans lost any hope for following their loss to IU. A good turnout from Chicago area Boiler fans could go a long way to create a neutral or home field feel to the game.
Similar to the game against Illinois, Purdue needs to try and score early to keep Northwestern from doing what they’re better at on offense, running the ball, and force them to keep up by throwing the ball. Purdue was unable to execute that strategy two weeks ago, we’ll see how well they do it this week.
Looking at the two teams and common opponents: Northwestern has played Nebraska and Iowa, losing on the road to Nebraska 13-10 and at home to the Hawkeyes, 20-0. Purdue reversed the home/away losing at Iowa, 20-26 and beating the Huskers at home 31-27.
Weather is predicted to be cold again, like last Saturday, but should be dry. High of 41 degrees, 20% chance of rain and winds of 14mph.
Like last week, it’s going to be interesting to see how Purdue, and perhaps more importantly WHO, plays.
Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Northwestern Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. Note: Purdue did not release a 2-deep chart again in this week’s game notes so we’re basically going with what we believe to be the starting lineup. Speculate at your own risk as to the “why” the 2-deep wasn’t released.
- Another week and the opposing O-Lines keep getting smaller. This week Purdue’s defense will face a Northwestern O-line which will be the smallest (outside of Purdue) in the B10. The line is well below average for the B10 and all opponents coming in at 302.0 lbs. However, they are above average in terms of experience for any Purdue opponent and the B10 coming in at 3.0 years of experience. Collectively, they have 87 career starts with essentially three new starters this season.
- This week’s Purdue’s D-Line (Kalaftkis, Higgins, Johnson, Barnes) averages about 267.5 lbs, down from last year’s 283.8 lbs. (When Watts is in, that number jumps 10lbs per man) They will be outweighed by the Northwestern line by about 34.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.25 years, equal to last year’s line even with Johnson and Karlaftkis starting. The size of this group is well below average for a B10 team and also well below average in terms of experience. As a unit they have 56 collective starts.
- Purdue’s LBs (Graham, Holt, Alexander) come in at 225.0 lbs, down significantly from last year’s 240.0 lbs and are at 2.33 years of experience with the absence of Jones and Graham listed in his place. They have a collective 34 starts between them (FYI Bailey had 40 individually). Size wise, this group is slightly below average for the B10 and all opponents and like the D-Line, they are well below the average in terms of experience.
- Purdue’s O-line (Hermanns, Stickford, Garvin, McCann, Brammel) will average 297.0 lbs per man, down by 2 lbs from last year’s 299.0 lbs. Purdue's size is well below average compared to the rest of the B10 and other Purdue opponents. They average 2.40 years of experience, a decrease from last season’s 3.4 years. Their experience puts them below the B10 average and also below all opponents. Collectively, with the reshuffle, this group has very few starts, 84.
- Northwestern features a traditional 4-3 front. At 282.5 lbs, Northwestern’s D-line is above average for the D-Line units Purdue will face this year. They will also be slightly above average in terms of experience with a 3.0 year average. They started out the year with one of the DTs as a new starter while the other three were multi-year players. Due to injury, there is now a new starter at the other DT spot and one of their experienced DEs (35 starts) is now out this week with Adebomiwa Adebawore making his first start on Saturday. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 16.5 lbs per man. With basically three new starters, they have just 49 combined starts.
- The Northwestern LBs come in above average for the B10 and for Purdue’s opponents at 232.0 lbs. They are above the B10 average in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position. Their collective starts are double what Nebraska had at 68 with MLB Fisher having the bulk of them (34).
Vegas predicts Purdue by 1 1/2 points (Opened up as a “pick”)
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 22-21 Purdue win
MasseyRatings predicts a 21-19 Northwestern win
Sagarin predicts a 1.5 point Northwestern win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 6.79 Northwestern win.
Last week’s game should be a good confidence boost for the Boilers. Too often, we’ve seen Purdue unable to make that last minute drive for a score or defensively, be unable to close out games and seal a win. Last week we saw both.
Apparently, it’s no longer “Next Man Up”. It’s now “Last Man Up” in terms of Purdue’s QB position.
There’s never a good week to work in a new QB but this week, facing a offensively challenged Northwestern team, is probably the best alternative outside of Rutgers.
It’s somewhat telling about Northwestern that Vegas had no issues putting a betting line on this game with such an unknown as Purdue’s QB, O’Connell (“QBOC”). To boot, there may be some question surrounding Northwestern’s QB situation as Hunter Johnson appeared to be slightly injured following an uncalled cheap shot during their game with IU with about 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.
It will interesting to see how Purdue’s offense now evolves with QBOC at the helm. As noted in Coach Brohm’s press conference, it’s up to the coaches to protect him from injury as his backup is true frosh Piferi or part time punter, Corollo. (Wonder just how bad Sipe’s back is hurt?) You might see someone line up in a Wildcat formation at some time, except the obvious Wildcat QB, Sparks, is also out. Anthrop might be a possibility here as well depending upon his health.
Northwestern’s defense is not performing to the level they were at last season or even to a level you’d expect based on their talent and experience. Total Defense is about the middle of the pack in the league, which isn’t bad considering how good some of the other B10 teams are performing, however, Scoring Defense is at the low end of the league at 11th, giving up 29.0 points per game, and just ahead of Nebraska. IU just put 34 points up on them last week.
Their recent injuries along their front line are also not helping matters. What started out the season as a fairly experienced front has had to replace one DT the prior two games and will have to replace a very experienced DE in Samdup Miller with a true freshman DE against Purdue.
What’s also not helping Northwestern is their propensity to giving up turnovers often resulting in short fields and their lack of forcing turnovers providing those same short fields to their offense. For the conference portion of the season, Northwestern is a -1.67 in Turnover Margin (Purdue, for all it’s miscues are a -0.5 in Turnover Margin). That -1.67 mark is tied with Rutgers for last in the league.
While it’s not terribly surprising that Northwestern’s offense is lowly rated in Red Zone offense, scoring on 72.7% of their trips, good for 12th in the league, it is surprising that their defense is ranked even worse at 13th, giving up scores on 91.7% of opponent’s trips into the Red Zone (Nebraska is last at 92.9%).
Drilling down into those numbers a little bit. Northwestern’s Offense has scored TDs on just 4 of their 11 trips into the Red Zone (36.4%). The 11 trips into the RZ is next to last (Rutgers) in the B10. Conversely, Purdue leads the league in Red Zone offense at 95.2% and has scored TDs on 15 of those 21 trips (71.4%).
Northwestern’s Defense has given up TDs on 62.5% of the opponent’s 24 trips into the RZ. Those 24 RZ appearances are 5th worst in the conference. Purdue has given up 12 TDs in their opponent’s 21 trips (57.1%) inside the RZ.
Purdue is still giving up a good deal of Passing Yards (235.2 ypg) compared to Northwestern (196.2 ypg) but their Pass Efficiency Defense (143.0) is better than Northwestern’s (143.9) likely due to Purdue’s 5 interceptions compared to just 1 for Northwestern.
Purdue’s streak of not giving up a TD through the air extended to 18 quarters, having last giving up a passing TD to PSU in the 2nd quarter of that game. Over that period, Purdue has averaged giving up just a hair over 180 yards per game through the air. That number over the entire conference schedule would put them at 6th in the league.
The 7 TDs that Purdue has given up the entire conference season does put them at 6th in the league in that category. OSU, Minny and Iowa are tied for 1st giving up just 3 the entire conference season. You’ll note that in Minnesota’s and Iowa’s case, they gave up 2 of their 3 against Purdue.
Purdue’s streak may very well be extended as Northwestern’s pass offense is especially anemic, completing just 47.4% of their passes and having just 1 passing TD while throwing 8 INTs. All three stats are league lows.
Coming into the season, highly regarded transfer QB, Hunter Johnson, was supposed to take over the reins after sitting out last season following his transfer from Clemson. After starting the first four games of the season, he did not play in their next three games before making an appearance in relief of Northwestern’s own, 3rd string Aidan, in Aidan Smith. His absence on the field was explained this week as Johnson’s mother has been battling cancer and needed time to deal with her treatment.
I’d expect Smith to again start this Saturday especially with Johnson’s status being questionable.
Northwestern’s running game is only slightly better than their passing game averaging only 16 yards per game more than Purdue. Their top back, Bowser, has been dinged up and has missed several games this season. In his absence, Drake Anderson (4.5 ypc) has stepped up and averages 55.9 yards per game.
Through the air, their top receiver is Riley Lees (4.3 rpg/30.2 ypg). As meager as that stat is, it’s still good for 11th highest receptions per game average for conference games only. Purdue has three players in the top 8 in the league (Bell 3rd, Hopkins 7th, Anthrop 8th).
For the entire season, Lees has just 28 receptions for 192 yards and averages just 24 yards receiving per game and 6.9 yards per reception. His stats are what you'd expect more out a TE than an outside WR. For perspective, Rondale Moore has more receptions (29) and nearly 200 yards more receiving (387) playing in just 3+ games.
Lees is also their most talented KO returner coming in at 3rd in the league in with a 26.0 yard average on a limited number (4). Their top punt returner is JJ Jefferson who’s 4th in the league with a 13.0 yard average, again on limited attempts (3). (Again, these are conference only numbers).
It will be critical for Purdue to limit any Northwestern returns potentially providing their struggling offense with improved field position. Conversely, Purdue has some Special Teams issues of their own to clean up to avoid losing field position on their own.
Overall, Northwestern is last in the league in 3rd and 4th down conversions converting 31.6% and 27.8% respectively.
During conference play, Northwestern’s scoring output of 6.8 points per game has been only better than Rutgers (4.0 ppg). Even including their non-conference games, they’re only scoring 9.8 points per game. Over their last three games, they’ve managed to score a single field goal in two of those games, getting shut out in the 3rd. Their “high” scoring mark was surprisingly in their 4th game of the year against Wisconsin when they put 15 points on the board. The second most points they scored in a conference game has been 10, accomplished twice (MSU & Nebraska). The most points they’ve scored in any game has been against UNLV, lighting up the scoreboard for 31 points that contest, or in other words, 10 more points than they’ve scored in all 6 of their conference games combined.
Northwestern has gone 206 minutes and 40 seconds of game time since scoring their last TD (11:20 left in the 3rd quarter of their game with Nebraska).
As noted, Purdue’s defense has improved as of late allowing just 335 yards per game over the last three contests and 22.75 points per game over the last 4 games. While, far from being considered a “shut down” defense, it is an improvement over the first part of the season when they allowed 452.8 yards and 33 points per game over their first 5 games.
It should also help them that they won’t be facing QBs like Nate Stanley or Adrian Martinez and wideouts like Spielman and Robinson this week.
On Northwestern’s defensive side, their top DE, Gaziano, has been performing roughly at the same level as Purdue’s Karlaftkis leading Northwestern in sacks (0.67 per game) and Tackles for Loss (1.17 per game). Karlaftkis is actually better averaging 0.75 sacks and 1.5 TFL per game. Gaziano is closing in on the NCAA career sack total record of 31. He currently has 26.5 and is behind OSU’s Chase Young who has 27.5.
Linebacker Paddy Fisher gets more publicity but running mate Blake Gallagher has more tackles for the conference season with 53 combined (solo & assisted) tackles. Fisher isn’t exactly slacking off as he has 46. Purdue’s Ben Holt continues to stay near the top of the league stats as he bests Gallagher by one with 54 tackles.
While not as poor as Northwestern’s offense, their defense is allowing opposing teams to convert 3rd downs at 37.9% (11th in the league).
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings:
Purdue...........................Northwestern
QB O’Connell NR..........Smith 3* (Johnson was 5* at Clemson)
RB Doerue 3*.................Bowser 3*
WR/FB Anthrop 3*.........McGowan 3*
WR Bell 4*.........………..Lees 3*
WR Anderson 3*............Bowman 3*
TE/SB Hopkins 2*.........Mangieri 3*
LT Hermanns 2*........….Slater 3*
LG Stickford 3*.............. Urban 3*
C Garvin NR...................Thomas 3*
RG McCann 3*.............. Gerak 3*
RT Miller 3*.....................Vogel 3*
DE Karlaftis 4*.................Gaziano 3*
DT Johnson 3*……….….A. Miller 2*
DT Watts 2*….................Saunders 3*
DE/LB Barnes 2*.............Adebawore 3*
LB Alexander 3*....……...Gallagher 3*
LB Holt NR................……Fisher 3*
LB Graham 3*...………...Bergin NR
CB Trice 3*.........…........Newsome 3*
CB Mackey 3*................Ruiz 3*
FS Mosley 3*......…........Pace 3*
SS Thieneman NR....…. Whitlock 2*
Looking back and comparing recent recruiting classes typically doesn’t bode well for Purdue. It’s no secret that even though they brought in some talented players the prior staff did not recruit full classes at a B10 level.
Comparing Northwestern’s classes and Purdue’s classes however comes in closer than you might expect. Simply, averaging the ranks of the 2015 through 2019 classes shows Purdue’s average class rank at 57.4th. Northwestern’s average over those same classes is just slightly higher at 53.4th. Those are just rough averages without taking account player usage. I would suspect that if you broke it down to account for number of snaps, Purdue’s would rank higher.
Purdue has gone 0-3 in road games this season with this week’s game being their best chance to get a road win with Wisconsin the remaining road tilt.
It’s been nine years since Purdue last beat Northwestern, that win, coincidentally occurred on the road in Evanston. With Northwestern’s sub-par performance this season, their attendance should be down in what is already a small stadium. Normally, I’d expect a strong Purdue showing but that may somewhat subdued with how Purdue has also performed this season.
Still, it was a good showing in the stands last week against Nebraska, obviously helped by the Husker faithful, but strong nonetheless. Fans in the Chicago area may turn out as Purdue still is mathematically eligible for a bowl game. Something, the Northwestern fans lost any hope for following their loss to IU. A good turnout from Chicago area Boiler fans could go a long way to create a neutral or home field feel to the game.
Similar to the game against Illinois, Purdue needs to try and score early to keep Northwestern from doing what they’re better at on offense, running the ball, and force them to keep up by throwing the ball. Purdue was unable to execute that strategy two weeks ago, we’ll see how well they do it this week.
Looking at the two teams and common opponents: Northwestern has played Nebraska and Iowa, losing on the road to Nebraska 13-10 and at home to the Hawkeyes, 20-0. Purdue reversed the home/away losing at Iowa, 20-26 and beating the Huskers at home 31-27.
Weather is predicted to be cold again, like last Saturday, but should be dry. High of 41 degrees, 20% chance of rain and winds of 14mph.
Like last week, it’s going to be interesting to see how Purdue, and perhaps more importantly WHO, plays.
Let’s play football!
