Taking a look at the size and experience of the Minnesota Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Purdue’s defense will face a Minnesota O-line which is getting back to one of the more normal sized units that Purdue will face this year at 311.2 lbs. which is just above average for B10 teams. As mentioned last week, the O-lines for this year’s B10 and OOC opponents are much younger than in years past. Minnesota comes in at 2.8 years of experience which, this year, is actually above the B10 average. One starter (RG) has more than a year of starts with another (LT) having a full year (12 starts). Two of the other three starters made their first career starts this season, with the third having just 8 starts. Combined, they have 45 collective starts. They’ve also had to shuffle the line around some due to injuries. More on that below.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Larkin, Robinson, Wilson, Ezechukwu) averages about 270.0 lbs, down from the 283.5 lbs average of last year. They will be outweighed by the Minnesota line by about 41.2 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.75 years, up from last year’s line of 3.2 year average. The size of this group will be well below average for a B10 team but conversely, well above average in terms of experience. As a unit they have decent experience as going into Saturday they have 65 collective starts. Note: While Neal typically starts, I’ve chosen to use Wilson as the “starter” as he typically seems to be in on more series.
- Purdue’s LBs (McCollum, Bentley, Bailey) come in at 243.3 lbs and are at 3.33 years of experience. That’s up about 1.5 lbs from last year and an additional year in collective experience (Up from 2.33 the last two years). They have a collective 75 starts between them (Counting McCollum’s starts at WKU). Size wise, this group is the largest in the B10 by 10+ lbs per man and above average in terms of experience.
- Purdue’s O-line (Hermanns, Evans, Baron, McCann, Steinmetz) will average 307.0 lbs per man, down by 2.6 lbs from last year’s 309.6 lbs. This puts them slightly below average compared to other B10 programs.They average 2.60 years of experience which is a significant drop from last year (3.6 years). This also places them just below average for the B10 and also for all opponents.Collectively, this group has 74 starts among them.
- At 275.0 lbs, Minnesota’s D-line is, like Purdue’s, below the average sized D-Line Purdue will face this year. They will be also below average in terms of experience with a 3.0 year average. Only one player has more than 8 starts, DT Richardson with 36. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 34.0lbs per man. As mentioned, they return virtually three new starters from last year and have a collective 52 starts between them.
- The Gopher LBs comes in well below the average for Purdue’s opponents at 231.00 lbs. Unlike the line, they are going to be on the younger side with an average of 2.67 years at the position. Like the D-Line, they have one starter, Celestin, who has the bulk of their starts with 17. Outside of him, their other two starters are new this season. Together they have just 23 starts.
Also a note about their formations. While Minnesota shows 4-3 formation in their depth chart, they’ve often actually started in a 3-3-5 formation and frequently goes to a 3-4 look however, they want to transition to a 4-3 so that is how I’m charting their players for this game. It may be dependent on which formation they expect Purdue to come out as to which lineup they’ll use.
Vegas predicts Purdue by 3.5 points
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 17-16 Purdue win
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-17 Minnesota win
Sagarin predicts an 1.99 point Minnesota win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 5.74 point Minnesota win*
*CollegeFootballPoll is the Cosgrove Computer formula for picking winners. So far this year in Purdue’s games it’s picked:
- Louisville by 20.09 points (Purdue lost by 7, computer off by 13 points)
- Ohio by 8.57 points (Purdue won by 23 points. computer off by 31 points)
- Missouri by 7.63 points (Purdue won by 32 points, computer off by 39 points)
- Michigan by 9.16 points (Purdue lost by 19, only game where computer didn’t underplay Purdue)
Might need some new batteries for that computer.
Obviously, a differing of opinions on the outome of this game.
Purdue is playing the 3rd game of their 3-“M” portion of their schedule. Seeing as this game is against Minnesota, that’s obviously appropriate. Purdue is also playing the 2nd of back to back games with obnoxious head coaches. Fleck, however, has been to the Purdue visitor’s locker room and while I doubt he’d consider it “elite”, he didn’t complain when he brought his Western Michigan club into Ross-Ade in 2014. For the record, Minnesota’s game notes only used the word “elite” three times this week.
Up until the Maryland game, Minnesota’s defense has been a bit of a national story just like Michigan’s defense. They were averaging giving up just 24 points total (8 points per game) which was good for #1 nationally, had not allowed a point in the 2nd half of games and were holding opponents to just 59 yards rushing per game, also good for #1 nationally.
And, much like Michigan prior to their game with Purdue, their competition wasn’t particularly good. Minnesota had faced teams with Total Offense rankings of 89th, 98th and 105th. Maryland came with the 72nd ranked Offense and racked up 31 points total, 14 points in the 2nd half of the game and 262 yards on the ground. In essence scoring more and running for more yards in that single game than Minnesota had given up in their first three games combined. And, Maryland was using what would be their 4th string QB, Max Bortenschlager (I think I had some Bortenschlager at Octoberfest last year). Note, while Bortenschlager is Maryland’s 3rd starting QB, he actually started the season 4th on the depth chart and behind Junior Caleb Henderson, who’d transferred from North Carolina, who injured his ankle in preseason camp and isn’t yet available.
Going forward, the Minnesota defense could have some additional issues as their secondary started Saturdays game a little depleted and it only got worse as the day ended. Zo Craighton, a 6’1” R-Soph backup CB was lost for the season prior to the MD game, one starting Safety, 6’1” R-Senior Duke McGhee was suspended for the MD game and has also been ruled out for Saturday while the other starting Safety and defensive leader, 5’10” Soph. Antoine Winfield had to leave the game after reinjuring his hamstring. McGhee was replaced by another Senior in Avyinde however Winfield’s injury forced Minnesota to pull the redshirt off true frosh Handy-Holly. Not only is depth effected but talent and experience has taken a huge hit with those losses.
With MD focused more on running the ball with Bortenschlager making his first start, Maryland didn’t really take advantage of the depleted secondary. I would suspect Purdue to try and attack that group to take advantage of the new starters and lack of depth.
Minnesota’s offense returns a couple of big pieces from last year in running backs Rodney Smith and Connor Brooks. Smith ran for 1,158 yards while Brooks ran for 650 yards last season. So far this season, they’ve amassed 509 yards between the two of them. Last season after four games, 587 yards combined with Brooks only playing 2 games. It would appear that PJ is trying to move the Minnesota offense away from the run-heavy style that coaches have employed there going back to Glen Mason.
In addition to the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota lost their starting center against Oregon State and don’t expect him back for the year. Also lost for the year is freshman WR Demetrius Douglas who, even though he didn’t play against MD, is still Minnesota’s 2nd leading receiver.
Minnesota QB Conor Rhoda, a R-Senior, isn’t going to Wow! anyone with his passing but he’s been accurate enough to keep teams from completely stacking the box (although that’s basically what Maryland did). He’s only thrown for 3 TDs in his four games and has also thrown an equal number of interceptions. Overall, he’s averaging just 171.25 yards passing per game.
And, while Minnesota basically is running the read-option, Rhoda is not a willing runner, only credited with carrying the ball 9 times in their four games. Against MD, kept the ball just once so the net effect is that the Minnesota run game is simply designated runs operating with the look of an inside zone-read offense.
Part of the issue behind Rhoda not keeping the ball is that Minnesota doesn’t really have any good options behind Rhoda if he would get dinged up. His backup is Seth Green (aka Scott Evil), a redshirt freshman who’s yet to throw a pass in competition as the co-starter to begin the season, Demry Croft, is still suspended.
When Minnesota does pass, they get good mileage out of their Tight Ends, including 6’10” Nate Wozniak (who considered Purdue prior to signing with Minnesota). Based on how Purdue “covered” Michigan’s TEs, I would expect Minnesota to try and exploit this matchup.
Minnesota’s special teams weren’t that special on Saturday. Their kicker managed to knock the ball out of bounds twice (out of five kick offs) providing Maryland with very good field position. Again, with Maryland starting a 4th string QB, giving them that kind of advantage isn’t a good way to win a game (and they didn’t).
In addition, their Field Goal kicker missed a 42 yarder off of their opening second half drive which would have given the Gophers some momentum. They also misplayed a kickoff return late in the game to essentially put the game out of reach.
Regarding Purdue:
The Bye week obviously came at a good time for Purdue, approximately 8 weeks since training camp opened and approximately 8 weeks left in the regular season. Since 1997, Purdue is 10-5 in games coming off bye weeks.
With the lack of experienced depth at several spots, the week gave Purdue a chance to heal, a chance to get some young players some reps and a chance to look back and see what and what did not work in their new system.
Offensively, Purdue should get at least one running back, errr, back in Jones, out since early in the first game after taking a helmet to his knee on a kickoff return. It remains to be seen how effective he can be running the ball but should at least help to compensate for what is expected to be Tario Fuller’s second game out with an undisclosed foot/ankle issue.
Purdue needs to be able to run the football to keep opposing lines from pinning their ears back and overwhelming a still developing O-Line and to make Purdue’s play-action passing more effective. The side benefit is controlling the clock and keeping the defense off of the field as long as possible.
It’s hard to imagine that Minnesota’s defense will be nearly as good as was Michigan’s. It’s also hard to imagine that Minnesota will get the same benefit of the doubt in regards to calls (or more appropriately no-calls) from the officials like we saw Michigan received. That alone should allow Purdue’s receivers a little more room in which to operate and get some separation. It will then be the O-line’s job to provide some protection.
If Minnesota is still able to get pressure on the QB, I’d look for Coach Brohm to scheme some quick passes/screens or move the pocket to buy Purdue’s QBs some more time.
On the subject of receivers, I’d like to think that Purdue will be able to generate more production from the transfers. Wright already has been working into the rotation and is responsible for some big gains but Holmes and Zico need to step up as well. I’m not sure they will supplant Mahoungou, Phillips or Anthrop but they would represent a good opportunity to give the starters a break and keep some fresh legs on the field against a thin Minnesota defensive backfield.
In addition, Sparks is too good not to be on the field in some capacity. While Blough and Sindelar aren’t exactly statues, Sparks at QB would provide for a very different look for Minnesota to try and defend. This may or may not be the game to unveil an offensive package for Sparks but if they do, I’d look for it in the 2nd half forcing Minnesota to try and made their adjustments on the fly.
On defense, Purdue will be missing a couple of key pieces for the 1st half as both Bentley and Thieneman will have to sit out due to targeting calls in the 2nd half of the Michigan game. While both are still listed as starters on this week’s 2-deep, there will obviously be a big hole in the middle of the defense which will need to be filled.
There’s an old adage in baseball that seems to be appropriate here as well. It goes “You need to be strong defensively up the middle.” In baseball, you’re referencing your catcher, middle infielders and center fielder. In football, it would be your DTs, MLB and Safeties. Michigan was able to take advantage of the replacements and break off a long TD run late in the game (arguably, fatigue may also have played a part) so it’s imperative that whomever fills in this week, they are ready to go and hold down the fort until the 2nd half.
One advantage those replacements will have this week as opposed to coming in the 2nd half of the Michigan game will be reps with the “1’s” over the last two weeks. Again, an unintended but potential benefit of the bye week.
Not sure how Purdue will handle replacing Thieneman but just on paper, it would seem likely that Jallow would factor in, perhaps at Free Safety instead of Strong Safety. As for Bentley’s replacement, the most logical would be to start Hudson in his place. Hudson is a 5th year Senior, has started previously and also should have a fairly high football “I.Q.” based on his upbringing.
An alternative is to move Bailey back inside where he’s probably better suited and put one of the freshman on the field to replace Bailey. What I don’t like about that scenario is that, not only have you thrust a freshman into a starting role, but you now have two players (Bailey and the frosh LB) playing a “new” position. I tend to feel the less changes to the moving parts the better so I’d lean toward starting Hudson unless it represented a dramatic drop off.
Also of concern is Larkin, who left the Michigan game with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, there are several options from which to choose: Play fellow Senior, Antoine Miles; move Robinson out to DE and utilize Neal or K. Jones in his place; use Rob Simmons as a DE/LB, a spot where he could find himself more often next season.
Whatever combination Coach Holt uses, I’d expect him to change up the lineups to keep Minnesota from getting comfortable with the look or coverages Purdue is showing.
I couldn’t not let this week’s installment go by without mentioning something about Coach Tiller so please indulge me with what I wrote Saturday evening after hearing the news of Coach’s passing:
Flying the Purdue flag at half mast and reminiscing about the season 20 years ago when Purdue came out of the dark ages of college football.
As a student (1976-1981), I was in a “sweet spot” when it came to Purdue football. I saw the last of Alex Agase (Alex “Agony”) and the start of the Jim Young era featuring a string of high level QBs and passing in a league where ground and pound was the norm. The 1978-1980 years saw Purdue with more wins than any other B10 over that period but, even that level of consistency didn’t result in a trip to the Rose Bowl. Still, seeing as few teams made bowl games during that era, getting to the Peach, the Bluebonnet and the Liberty bowls was still a major accomplishment with them being just the 2nd through 4th bowl games Purdue would ever play. That period “spoiled” me as a fan, knowing how competitive Purdue could be with the right coach.
After graduation and a year in Indy, I moved to California. Back then, before the B10 Network, before ESPN3 and before virtually every game for every team could be accessed nationally, I could usually look “forward” to seeing Purdue play once or maybe twice a year. In the “even” years, Purdue would play Notre Dame in South Bend and NBC would air the game. In the “odd” years, you could usually count on ESPN to broadcast the Notre Dame away games (that was when they really were “special”) and since those games generally came early in the season, before conference play set in, I could look forward to seeing those games regardless of how well Purdue was playing.
I had finally succumbed to the Akers/Colletto seasons and had dropped my season tickets in the mid-90’s. Being in California, I could usually only get to one game a year anyway and was having trouble even giving away the remainder of the games (this was also before StubHub). I persevered with Gold & Black Illustrated to at least get some news of the team but the print issues took over a week to reach me and when they did show up, the reading was so depressing I usually skipped over the football articles and scanned for any basketball news.
After Tiller had been named as head coach after the end of the 1996 season, I made it a point to watch the WAC Title game between Wyoming and BYU to see what might lie in store for the Boilers. I can’t say I was terribly impressed at the time (an OT loss) but at least he wasn’t Akers (past his prime) or Colletto (beaten down).
As everyone knows, the 1997 started out auspiciously with the loss on the road to Toledo. I don’t know that I was shocked as, after over a decade of poor play, the Toledo loss was just another in a long line of numbing losses. The following Saturday, I settled in to watch the Boilers take on Notre Dame, who also had a new coach in Bob Davie. Now, during much of the 1990’s, Purdue’s games were typically over by halftime and the only real excitement was when something unusual happened like when a rabbit made it onto the field in 1993 and ran from one end zone to the other (more than the Purdue team could seemingly do).
But, back to that 1997 game. Before long, it was apparent that somehow, someway, the prior year’s Purdue team had obviously been kidnapped and replaced with players who could play with a highly regarded ND team. Calls from college friends starting coming in during the game, many in disbelief but all making sure I was watching the game. And indeed I was. It was a new day, a new era and just the tip of what was to come. More wins, improbable come from behind wins, a string of bowl games and the Granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl and a B10 championship were all in store.
While Coach Tiller only spent a portion of his career with Purdue, it was with the Boilers that he arguably achieved the most success. Following his retirement, Wyoming, was far enough away to give a new coach breathing room but his frequent return to West Lafayette seemed to reflect his continued interest and involvement in the program he had been so successful in building.
That program however had obviously fallen on hard times. If Purdue football was featured on one of the HGTV house flipper shows, there would be leaks in the roof, an outdated kitchen, not enough bathrooms, mud in the backyard pool and the whole joint would be facing condemnation by the city. Friends and neighbors avoided coming by to visit.
This year, that “house” got a new owner in Coach Brohm and while there’s still some issues to be resolved, the house is once again inhabitable. The yards have been cleaned up and replanted, there’s a new kitchen, the dry rot inside has been removed and there’s a fresh coat of paint on all the walls. It’s still got work to be done but it’s again a nice spot to entertain.
There’s the romantic in me that wants to believe Coach Tiller, despite his health issues, kept going until a new “owner” of his former property could be found to restore the place back to its proper glory. Last Saturday, a college football Saturday, he perhaps knew the torch had been passed and Purdue would once again be in good hands.
One can’t thank Coach Tiller enough for all of the memories he and his teams provided. May he rest in peace.
Saturday, Purdue will honor that 1997 team and I imagine the outpouring for Coach Tiller will be unprecedented. I’d like to think that Coach Brohm and the team will not let him down.
Saturday can’t get here soon enough. Let’s play football! Ever see a train take on a boat? Here you go.
EDIT: Had Minnesota as the Vegas favorite. Now corrected to show Purdue as being favored.
- Purdue’s defense will face a Minnesota O-line which is getting back to one of the more normal sized units that Purdue will face this year at 311.2 lbs. which is just above average for B10 teams. As mentioned last week, the O-lines for this year’s B10 and OOC opponents are much younger than in years past. Minnesota comes in at 2.8 years of experience which, this year, is actually above the B10 average. One starter (RG) has more than a year of starts with another (LT) having a full year (12 starts). Two of the other three starters made their first career starts this season, with the third having just 8 starts. Combined, they have 45 collective starts. They’ve also had to shuffle the line around some due to injuries. More on that below.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Larkin, Robinson, Wilson, Ezechukwu) averages about 270.0 lbs, down from the 283.5 lbs average of last year. They will be outweighed by the Minnesota line by about 41.2 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.75 years, up from last year’s line of 3.2 year average. The size of this group will be well below average for a B10 team but conversely, well above average in terms of experience. As a unit they have decent experience as going into Saturday they have 65 collective starts. Note: While Neal typically starts, I’ve chosen to use Wilson as the “starter” as he typically seems to be in on more series.
- Purdue’s LBs (McCollum, Bentley, Bailey) come in at 243.3 lbs and are at 3.33 years of experience. That’s up about 1.5 lbs from last year and an additional year in collective experience (Up from 2.33 the last two years). They have a collective 75 starts between them (Counting McCollum’s starts at WKU). Size wise, this group is the largest in the B10 by 10+ lbs per man and above average in terms of experience.
- Purdue’s O-line (Hermanns, Evans, Baron, McCann, Steinmetz) will average 307.0 lbs per man, down by 2.6 lbs from last year’s 309.6 lbs. This puts them slightly below average compared to other B10 programs.They average 2.60 years of experience which is a significant drop from last year (3.6 years). This also places them just below average for the B10 and also for all opponents.Collectively, this group has 74 starts among them.
- At 275.0 lbs, Minnesota’s D-line is, like Purdue’s, below the average sized D-Line Purdue will face this year. They will be also below average in terms of experience with a 3.0 year average. Only one player has more than 8 starts, DT Richardson with 36. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 34.0lbs per man. As mentioned, they return virtually three new starters from last year and have a collective 52 starts between them.
- The Gopher LBs comes in well below the average for Purdue’s opponents at 231.00 lbs. Unlike the line, they are going to be on the younger side with an average of 2.67 years at the position. Like the D-Line, they have one starter, Celestin, who has the bulk of their starts with 17. Outside of him, their other two starters are new this season. Together they have just 23 starts.
Also a note about their formations. While Minnesota shows 4-3 formation in their depth chart, they’ve often actually started in a 3-3-5 formation and frequently goes to a 3-4 look however, they want to transition to a 4-3 so that is how I’m charting their players for this game. It may be dependent on which formation they expect Purdue to come out as to which lineup they’ll use.
Vegas predicts Purdue by 3.5 points
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 17-16 Purdue win
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-17 Minnesota win
Sagarin predicts an 1.99 point Minnesota win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 5.74 point Minnesota win*
*CollegeFootballPoll is the Cosgrove Computer formula for picking winners. So far this year in Purdue’s games it’s picked:
- Louisville by 20.09 points (Purdue lost by 7, computer off by 13 points)
- Ohio by 8.57 points (Purdue won by 23 points. computer off by 31 points)
- Missouri by 7.63 points (Purdue won by 32 points, computer off by 39 points)
- Michigan by 9.16 points (Purdue lost by 19, only game where computer didn’t underplay Purdue)
Might need some new batteries for that computer.
Obviously, a differing of opinions on the outome of this game.
Purdue is playing the 3rd game of their 3-“M” portion of their schedule. Seeing as this game is against Minnesota, that’s obviously appropriate. Purdue is also playing the 2nd of back to back games with obnoxious head coaches. Fleck, however, has been to the Purdue visitor’s locker room and while I doubt he’d consider it “elite”, he didn’t complain when he brought his Western Michigan club into Ross-Ade in 2014. For the record, Minnesota’s game notes only used the word “elite” three times this week.
Up until the Maryland game, Minnesota’s defense has been a bit of a national story just like Michigan’s defense. They were averaging giving up just 24 points total (8 points per game) which was good for #1 nationally, had not allowed a point in the 2nd half of games and were holding opponents to just 59 yards rushing per game, also good for #1 nationally.
And, much like Michigan prior to their game with Purdue, their competition wasn’t particularly good. Minnesota had faced teams with Total Offense rankings of 89th, 98th and 105th. Maryland came with the 72nd ranked Offense and racked up 31 points total, 14 points in the 2nd half of the game and 262 yards on the ground. In essence scoring more and running for more yards in that single game than Minnesota had given up in their first three games combined. And, Maryland was using what would be their 4th string QB, Max Bortenschlager (I think I had some Bortenschlager at Octoberfest last year). Note, while Bortenschlager is Maryland’s 3rd starting QB, he actually started the season 4th on the depth chart and behind Junior Caleb Henderson, who’d transferred from North Carolina, who injured his ankle in preseason camp and isn’t yet available.
Going forward, the Minnesota defense could have some additional issues as their secondary started Saturdays game a little depleted and it only got worse as the day ended. Zo Craighton, a 6’1” R-Soph backup CB was lost for the season prior to the MD game, one starting Safety, 6’1” R-Senior Duke McGhee was suspended for the MD game and has also been ruled out for Saturday while the other starting Safety and defensive leader, 5’10” Soph. Antoine Winfield had to leave the game after reinjuring his hamstring. McGhee was replaced by another Senior in Avyinde however Winfield’s injury forced Minnesota to pull the redshirt off true frosh Handy-Holly. Not only is depth effected but talent and experience has taken a huge hit with those losses.
With MD focused more on running the ball with Bortenschlager making his first start, Maryland didn’t really take advantage of the depleted secondary. I would suspect Purdue to try and attack that group to take advantage of the new starters and lack of depth.
Minnesota’s offense returns a couple of big pieces from last year in running backs Rodney Smith and Connor Brooks. Smith ran for 1,158 yards while Brooks ran for 650 yards last season. So far this season, they’ve amassed 509 yards between the two of them. Last season after four games, 587 yards combined with Brooks only playing 2 games. It would appear that PJ is trying to move the Minnesota offense away from the run-heavy style that coaches have employed there going back to Glen Mason.
In addition to the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota lost their starting center against Oregon State and don’t expect him back for the year. Also lost for the year is freshman WR Demetrius Douglas who, even though he didn’t play against MD, is still Minnesota’s 2nd leading receiver.
Minnesota QB Conor Rhoda, a R-Senior, isn’t going to Wow! anyone with his passing but he’s been accurate enough to keep teams from completely stacking the box (although that’s basically what Maryland did). He’s only thrown for 3 TDs in his four games and has also thrown an equal number of interceptions. Overall, he’s averaging just 171.25 yards passing per game.
And, while Minnesota basically is running the read-option, Rhoda is not a willing runner, only credited with carrying the ball 9 times in their four games. Against MD, kept the ball just once so the net effect is that the Minnesota run game is simply designated runs operating with the look of an inside zone-read offense.
Part of the issue behind Rhoda not keeping the ball is that Minnesota doesn’t really have any good options behind Rhoda if he would get dinged up. His backup is Seth Green (aka Scott Evil), a redshirt freshman who’s yet to throw a pass in competition as the co-starter to begin the season, Demry Croft, is still suspended.
When Minnesota does pass, they get good mileage out of their Tight Ends, including 6’10” Nate Wozniak (who considered Purdue prior to signing with Minnesota). Based on how Purdue “covered” Michigan’s TEs, I would expect Minnesota to try and exploit this matchup.
Minnesota’s special teams weren’t that special on Saturday. Their kicker managed to knock the ball out of bounds twice (out of five kick offs) providing Maryland with very good field position. Again, with Maryland starting a 4th string QB, giving them that kind of advantage isn’t a good way to win a game (and they didn’t).
In addition, their Field Goal kicker missed a 42 yarder off of their opening second half drive which would have given the Gophers some momentum. They also misplayed a kickoff return late in the game to essentially put the game out of reach.
Regarding Purdue:
The Bye week obviously came at a good time for Purdue, approximately 8 weeks since training camp opened and approximately 8 weeks left in the regular season. Since 1997, Purdue is 10-5 in games coming off bye weeks.
With the lack of experienced depth at several spots, the week gave Purdue a chance to heal, a chance to get some young players some reps and a chance to look back and see what and what did not work in their new system.
Offensively, Purdue should get at least one running back, errr, back in Jones, out since early in the first game after taking a helmet to his knee on a kickoff return. It remains to be seen how effective he can be running the ball but should at least help to compensate for what is expected to be Tario Fuller’s second game out with an undisclosed foot/ankle issue.
Purdue needs to be able to run the football to keep opposing lines from pinning their ears back and overwhelming a still developing O-Line and to make Purdue’s play-action passing more effective. The side benefit is controlling the clock and keeping the defense off of the field as long as possible.
It’s hard to imagine that Minnesota’s defense will be nearly as good as was Michigan’s. It’s also hard to imagine that Minnesota will get the same benefit of the doubt in regards to calls (or more appropriately no-calls) from the officials like we saw Michigan received. That alone should allow Purdue’s receivers a little more room in which to operate and get some separation. It will then be the O-line’s job to provide some protection.
If Minnesota is still able to get pressure on the QB, I’d look for Coach Brohm to scheme some quick passes/screens or move the pocket to buy Purdue’s QBs some more time.
On the subject of receivers, I’d like to think that Purdue will be able to generate more production from the transfers. Wright already has been working into the rotation and is responsible for some big gains but Holmes and Zico need to step up as well. I’m not sure they will supplant Mahoungou, Phillips or Anthrop but they would represent a good opportunity to give the starters a break and keep some fresh legs on the field against a thin Minnesota defensive backfield.
In addition, Sparks is too good not to be on the field in some capacity. While Blough and Sindelar aren’t exactly statues, Sparks at QB would provide for a very different look for Minnesota to try and defend. This may or may not be the game to unveil an offensive package for Sparks but if they do, I’d look for it in the 2nd half forcing Minnesota to try and made their adjustments on the fly.
On defense, Purdue will be missing a couple of key pieces for the 1st half as both Bentley and Thieneman will have to sit out due to targeting calls in the 2nd half of the Michigan game. While both are still listed as starters on this week’s 2-deep, there will obviously be a big hole in the middle of the defense which will need to be filled.
There’s an old adage in baseball that seems to be appropriate here as well. It goes “You need to be strong defensively up the middle.” In baseball, you’re referencing your catcher, middle infielders and center fielder. In football, it would be your DTs, MLB and Safeties. Michigan was able to take advantage of the replacements and break off a long TD run late in the game (arguably, fatigue may also have played a part) so it’s imperative that whomever fills in this week, they are ready to go and hold down the fort until the 2nd half.
One advantage those replacements will have this week as opposed to coming in the 2nd half of the Michigan game will be reps with the “1’s” over the last two weeks. Again, an unintended but potential benefit of the bye week.
Not sure how Purdue will handle replacing Thieneman but just on paper, it would seem likely that Jallow would factor in, perhaps at Free Safety instead of Strong Safety. As for Bentley’s replacement, the most logical would be to start Hudson in his place. Hudson is a 5th year Senior, has started previously and also should have a fairly high football “I.Q.” based on his upbringing.
An alternative is to move Bailey back inside where he’s probably better suited and put one of the freshman on the field to replace Bailey. What I don’t like about that scenario is that, not only have you thrust a freshman into a starting role, but you now have two players (Bailey and the frosh LB) playing a “new” position. I tend to feel the less changes to the moving parts the better so I’d lean toward starting Hudson unless it represented a dramatic drop off.
Also of concern is Larkin, who left the Michigan game with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, there are several options from which to choose: Play fellow Senior, Antoine Miles; move Robinson out to DE and utilize Neal or K. Jones in his place; use Rob Simmons as a DE/LB, a spot where he could find himself more often next season.
Whatever combination Coach Holt uses, I’d expect him to change up the lineups to keep Minnesota from getting comfortable with the look or coverages Purdue is showing.
I couldn’t not let this week’s installment go by without mentioning something about Coach Tiller so please indulge me with what I wrote Saturday evening after hearing the news of Coach’s passing:
Flying the Purdue flag at half mast and reminiscing about the season 20 years ago when Purdue came out of the dark ages of college football.
As a student (1976-1981), I was in a “sweet spot” when it came to Purdue football. I saw the last of Alex Agase (Alex “Agony”) and the start of the Jim Young era featuring a string of high level QBs and passing in a league where ground and pound was the norm. The 1978-1980 years saw Purdue with more wins than any other B10 over that period but, even that level of consistency didn’t result in a trip to the Rose Bowl. Still, seeing as few teams made bowl games during that era, getting to the Peach, the Bluebonnet and the Liberty bowls was still a major accomplishment with them being just the 2nd through 4th bowl games Purdue would ever play. That period “spoiled” me as a fan, knowing how competitive Purdue could be with the right coach.
After graduation and a year in Indy, I moved to California. Back then, before the B10 Network, before ESPN3 and before virtually every game for every team could be accessed nationally, I could usually look “forward” to seeing Purdue play once or maybe twice a year. In the “even” years, Purdue would play Notre Dame in South Bend and NBC would air the game. In the “odd” years, you could usually count on ESPN to broadcast the Notre Dame away games (that was when they really were “special”) and since those games generally came early in the season, before conference play set in, I could look forward to seeing those games regardless of how well Purdue was playing.
I had finally succumbed to the Akers/Colletto seasons and had dropped my season tickets in the mid-90’s. Being in California, I could usually only get to one game a year anyway and was having trouble even giving away the remainder of the games (this was also before StubHub). I persevered with Gold & Black Illustrated to at least get some news of the team but the print issues took over a week to reach me and when they did show up, the reading was so depressing I usually skipped over the football articles and scanned for any basketball news.
After Tiller had been named as head coach after the end of the 1996 season, I made it a point to watch the WAC Title game between Wyoming and BYU to see what might lie in store for the Boilers. I can’t say I was terribly impressed at the time (an OT loss) but at least he wasn’t Akers (past his prime) or Colletto (beaten down).
As everyone knows, the 1997 started out auspiciously with the loss on the road to Toledo. I don’t know that I was shocked as, after over a decade of poor play, the Toledo loss was just another in a long line of numbing losses. The following Saturday, I settled in to watch the Boilers take on Notre Dame, who also had a new coach in Bob Davie. Now, during much of the 1990’s, Purdue’s games were typically over by halftime and the only real excitement was when something unusual happened like when a rabbit made it onto the field in 1993 and ran from one end zone to the other (more than the Purdue team could seemingly do).
But, back to that 1997 game. Before long, it was apparent that somehow, someway, the prior year’s Purdue team had obviously been kidnapped and replaced with players who could play with a highly regarded ND team. Calls from college friends starting coming in during the game, many in disbelief but all making sure I was watching the game. And indeed I was. It was a new day, a new era and just the tip of what was to come. More wins, improbable come from behind wins, a string of bowl games and the Granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl and a B10 championship were all in store.
While Coach Tiller only spent a portion of his career with Purdue, it was with the Boilers that he arguably achieved the most success. Following his retirement, Wyoming, was far enough away to give a new coach breathing room but his frequent return to West Lafayette seemed to reflect his continued interest and involvement in the program he had been so successful in building.
That program however had obviously fallen on hard times. If Purdue football was featured on one of the HGTV house flipper shows, there would be leaks in the roof, an outdated kitchen, not enough bathrooms, mud in the backyard pool and the whole joint would be facing condemnation by the city. Friends and neighbors avoided coming by to visit.
This year, that “house” got a new owner in Coach Brohm and while there’s still some issues to be resolved, the house is once again inhabitable. The yards have been cleaned up and replanted, there’s a new kitchen, the dry rot inside has been removed and there’s a fresh coat of paint on all the walls. It’s still got work to be done but it’s again a nice spot to entertain.
There’s the romantic in me that wants to believe Coach Tiller, despite his health issues, kept going until a new “owner” of his former property could be found to restore the place back to its proper glory. Last Saturday, a college football Saturday, he perhaps knew the torch had been passed and Purdue would once again be in good hands.
One can’t thank Coach Tiller enough for all of the memories he and his teams provided. May he rest in peace.
Saturday, Purdue will honor that 1997 team and I imagine the outpouring for Coach Tiller will be unprecedented. I’d like to think that Coach Brohm and the team will not let him down.
Saturday can’t get here soon enough. Let’s play football! Ever see a train take on a boat? Here you go.
EDIT: Had Minnesota as the Vegas favorite. Now corrected to show Purdue as being favored.
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