Strange trend

[FirstDownB]

Here is a bit of trivia for you to impress your friends with (or not)..

Did you know the 2015-16 Purdue team was 16-0 in regular season games played on weekdays (M-F) and 8-7 in reg season games played on weekends? In Big Ten games, excluding BTT, they were 9-0 on weekdays and 3-6 on weekends. Weird isn't it???

So far this season the 2016-17 team is 11-3 on weekdays and 6-2 on weekends. However, 2 of those weekday losses were against the 2 best teams on the schedule, Nova and Louisville. In Big Ten games they are 4-1 on weekdays and 2-2 on weekends.

So, the past 2 seasons the split records are: 27-3 (13-1) on weekdays and 14-9 (5-8) on weekends. That is a stronger correlation that home/away or any other split other than strength of opponent.

Interested in any theories and use this info responsibly!

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Here is a bit of trivia for you to impress your friends with (or not)..

Did you know the 2015-16 Purdue team was 16-0 in regular season games played on weekdays (M-F) and 8-7 in reg season games played on weekends? In Big Ten games, excluding BTT, they were 9-0 on weekdays and 3-6 on weekends. Weird isn't it???

So far this season the 2016-17 team is 11-3 on weekdays and 6-2 on weekends. However, 2 of those weekday losses were against the 2 best teams on the schedule, Nova and Louisville. In Big Ten games they are 4-1 on weekdays and 2-2 on weekends.

So, the past 2 seasons the split records are: 27-3 (13-1) on weekdays and 14-9 (5-8) on weekends. That is a stronger correlation that home/away or any other split other than strength of opponent.

Interested in any theories and use this info responsibly!

other than strength of opponent? heh...i think you have your answer. It is interesting though.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Here is a bit of trivia for you to impress your friends with (or not)..

Did you know the 2015-16 Purdue team was 16-0 in regular season games played on weekdays (M-F) and 8-7 in reg season games played on weekends? In Big Ten games, excluding BTT, they were 9-0 on weekdays and 3-6 on weekends. Weird isn't it???

So far this season the 2016-17 team is 11-3 on weekdays and 6-2 on weekends. However, 2 of those weekday losses were against the 2 best teams on the schedule, Nova and Louisville. In Big Ten games they are 4-1 on weekdays and 2-2 on weekends.

So, the past 2 seasons the split records are: 27-3 (13-1) on weekdays and 14-9 (5-8) on weekends. That is a stronger correlation that home/away or any other split other than strength of opponent.

Interested in any theories and use this info responsibly!

Makes yesterday's point spread seem all the weirder.

 

[FirstDownB]

other than strength of opponent? heh...i think you have your answer. It is interesting though.

Overall strength of opponent has no correlation to when the game is played, at least not in conference. A quick glance at the schedule confirms: Penn State, Minnesota, Nebraska on weekend.

But maybe overall strength of opponent is different that strength of opponent on a given day?

 

[FirstDownB]

Makes yesterday's point spread seem all the weirder.

I was taking a long look at Nebraska on the money line given this trend and the fact that we typically either win comfortably or lose close.
Waiting for Wednesday's spread against Northwestern.. Guessing there will be some over-reaction to the loss at Nebraska and NW is getting a lot of love right now. This is the type of game we win by double digits.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Overall strength of opponent has no correlation to when the game is played, at least not in conference. A quick glance at the schedule confirms: Penn State, Minnesota, Nebraska on weekend.

But maybe overall strength of opponent is different that strength of opponent on a given day?

I didn't say it did. But it probably strongly correlates to whether we win or lose. In other words, "who" is more important than "when".

 

[FirstDownB]

I didn't say it did. But it probably strongly correlates to whether we win or lose. In other words, "who" is more important than "when".

Obviously, "who" is more important than "when". The "who" factor is universally understood. The "when" factor has never once been discussed to my knowledge, other than in terms of the timing of specific things like opponents coming off of a loss or losing a player to injury.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Obviously, "who" is more important than "when". The "who" factor is universally understood. The "when" factor has never once been discussed to my knowledge, other than in terms of the timing of specific things like opponents coming off of a loss or losing a player to injury.

So if this is true, it will be quite hard to distinguish what effect "when" has. You would have to apply some metric like RPI/BPI and then see if there's a statistical difference between the performances on the weekend vs weekdays. Not impossible, but I don't have time. It is interesting.

 

[FirstDownB]

So if this is true, it will be quite hard to distinguish what effect "when" has. You would have to apply some metric like RPI/BPI and then see if there's a statistical difference between the performances on the weekend vs weekdays. Not impossible, but I don't have time. It is interesting.

To be statistically sound, yes, you are correct. But since I don't have the time either I am assuming that over the course of 1.5 seasons there is enough randomness in the schedule - as evidenced by seeing teams like PSU, NEB, MIN on weekends and teams like MSU, UW on weekdays - that the "when" trend can't possibly be fully explained by strength of opponent. Perhaps other factors and a still smallish sample size are clouding the randomness. The trend is indeed less strong than last year, so perhaps it is just as likely to go the other way the next 1.5 seasons.

 

[tjreese]

Here is a bit of trivia for you to impress your friends with (or not)..

Did you know the 2015-16 Purdue team was 16-0 in regular season games played on weekdays (M-F) and 8-7 in reg season games played on weekends? In Big Ten games, excluding BTT, they were 9-0 on weekdays and 3-6 on weekends. Weird isn't it???

So far this season the 2016-17 team is 11-3 on weekdays and 6-2 on weekends. However, 2 of those weekday losses were against the 2 best teams on the schedule, Nova and Louisville. In Big Ten games they are 4-1 on weekdays and 2-2 on weekends.

So, the past 2 seasons the split records are: 27-3 (13-1) on weekdays and 14-9 (5-8) on weekends. That is a stronger correlation that home/away or any other split other than strength of opponent.

Interested in any theories and use this info responsibly!

I think it is very interesting and have no answers. I'm guessing that schedules are similar as far as ordering from year to year, but I don't know that with the unbalanced schedule. If there is some pattern to scheduling, the the wins and losses may be confounded inside the schedule...or perhaps the same teams are generally played during the same time of the year and better teams day in and day out that Purdue faces are on weekends, but I have not idea how that shakes out. It is interesting though. I'm guessing that weekends games confound time of the day if a factor with results...which could also lead to a different conclusion...such as normal scheduling of day to day activities. I think that is interesting, for a hypothesis...but incomplete as you suggested. Perhaps it is as simple as getting better refs during the week?

 

[FirstDownB]

I think it is very interesting and have no answers. I'm guessing that schedules are similar as far as ordering from year to year, but I don't know that with the unbalanced schedule. If there is some pattern to scheduling, the the wins and losses may be confounded inside the schedule...or perhaps the same teams are generally played during the same time of the year and better teams day in and day out that Purdue faces are on weekends, but I have not idea how that shakes out. It is interesting though. I'm guessing that weekends games confound time of the day if a factor with results...which could also lead to a different conclusion...such as normal scheduling of day to day activities. I think that is interesting, for a hypothesis...but incomplete as you suggested. Perhaps it is as simple as getting better refs during the week?

Excellent point on game times. A cursory study of human psychology provides insight into the importance of circadian rhythms on peak performance. Of course we are not talking test results here - everything is relative since there are two teams involved. Therefore, something would have to be affecting Purdue more so than opponents. Perhaps we've simply had a disproportionate night owl population on the team recently??

 

[tjreese]

Excellent point on game times. A cursory study of human psychology provides insight into the importance of circadian rhythms on peak performance. Of course we are not talking test results here - everything is relative since there are two teams involved. Therefore, something would have to be affecting Purdue more so than opponents. Perhaps we've simply had a disproportionate night owl population on the team recently??

obviously it might be interesting to see what teams in the Big follow Purdues data and which do not. Somebody has to win at those times unless there are just so many more preseason games during the week. ;0