So we are reaching the point that we can start to discuss bracketing details. Still plenty to change in the next 13 days, but with everyone having just a couple games left, speculation can start. Frankly for a couple of days last week I was wondering if we'd get in at 19-13.
First the facts:
Sub-regional locations and dates:
Thursday/Saturday:
Lexington, KY
Providence, RI
Wichita, KS
Denver, CO
Friday/Sunday
Seattle, WA
Cleveland, OH
Milwaukee, WI
Raleigh, NC
2 teams that are seeded 1-4 will get placed in each location, in order down the S-Curve. Typically the pure distance from the school to the site drives the placement, but not always. This exercise is assuming we are a 4-seed, but it kinda works for a 5- as well.
First of all, eliminate any thought of a quick drive to Lexington like in 1994. 2 SEC teams will most definitely go there since there really isn't a pure "South" location this year, not using my geography skills. Duke will go to Raleigh, Auburn will go to Lexington or Raleigh, and the next 2 of Alabama, Tennessee and Florida (per the S-curve) will fill out those 2 sites.
The next spot to take off the list is Houston going to Wichita. Lock it up. Probably the 3rd of the aforementioned SEC teams as well, although that team could go to Cleveland.
Michigan State to Cleveland. Fairly locked. St. John's to Providence. Fairly locked.
At this point, you get to the question of "who's next?" when it comes to the S-curve. The cluster of teams for the remaining 8 "pod hosts" would be:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Purdue
Maryland
Texas A&M
Kentucky
Arizona
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Missouri
Clemson
Marquette
That's 12. So in theory, the 3s through the 5s. The remaining spots are 2 in Seattle, 2 in Denver, 2 in Milwaukee, 1 in Cleveland or Wichita, 1 in Providence. If Wisconsin is on the 3-line, they'll go to Milwaukee obviously. Marquette is the host there, so they CAN'T go there. Kentucky can't go to Lexington obviously, but we've already filled those spots.
The question is, how does the committee seed those 12 teams. Off the bat, I'd put Texas Tech and Texas A&M near or at the top, which would fill the remaining Wichita spot if it's free, and one in Denver. Iowa State too, same answer, although they'd be a play in Milwaukee.
So all that being said, if we stay as a 4, expect a trip to Seattle or Providence. Even as a 5. If we win our next 4 games and get back into consideration for a 3, you could see Milwaukee or Cleveland as a possibility, but I'd put it a low one simply because I think we're far enough behind both Wisconsin and Michigan currently.
As for region placement, it's a complete crapshoot. All depends on who the #1 seed is. Auburn should be a shoo-in for Atlanta, unless they lose a couple and it ends up being Duke. Assuming it's Auburn, Duke should go to Newark. That would leave San Francisco and Indy for the other 2. The other 2 are going to come from Houston and an SEC team, or 2 SEC teams. The overall 3 will go to Indy, the overall 4 will go to San Fran, or they could just flat-out send Houston to SF no matter what, which would make travel easier for Bama/Tenn/Florida to Indy. Would the committee avoid putting us with Bama or Auburn because we played them? They probably wouldn't care because that's a potential 3rd round game and they don't look ahead like that.
Confused yet? I'll be here all day.
First the facts:
Sub-regional locations and dates:
Thursday/Saturday:
Lexington, KY
Providence, RI
Wichita, KS
Denver, CO
Friday/Sunday
Seattle, WA
Cleveland, OH
Milwaukee, WI
Raleigh, NC
2 teams that are seeded 1-4 will get placed in each location, in order down the S-Curve. Typically the pure distance from the school to the site drives the placement, but not always. This exercise is assuming we are a 4-seed, but it kinda works for a 5- as well.
First of all, eliminate any thought of a quick drive to Lexington like in 1994. 2 SEC teams will most definitely go there since there really isn't a pure "South" location this year, not using my geography skills. Duke will go to Raleigh, Auburn will go to Lexington or Raleigh, and the next 2 of Alabama, Tennessee and Florida (per the S-curve) will fill out those 2 sites.
The next spot to take off the list is Houston going to Wichita. Lock it up. Probably the 3rd of the aforementioned SEC teams as well, although that team could go to Cleveland.
Michigan State to Cleveland. Fairly locked. St. John's to Providence. Fairly locked.
At this point, you get to the question of "who's next?" when it comes to the S-curve. The cluster of teams for the remaining 8 "pod hosts" would be:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Purdue
Maryland
Texas A&M
Kentucky
Arizona
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Missouri
Clemson
Marquette
That's 12. So in theory, the 3s through the 5s. The remaining spots are 2 in Seattle, 2 in Denver, 2 in Milwaukee, 1 in Cleveland or Wichita, 1 in Providence. If Wisconsin is on the 3-line, they'll go to Milwaukee obviously. Marquette is the host there, so they CAN'T go there. Kentucky can't go to Lexington obviously, but we've already filled those spots.
The question is, how does the committee seed those 12 teams. Off the bat, I'd put Texas Tech and Texas A&M near or at the top, which would fill the remaining Wichita spot if it's free, and one in Denver. Iowa State too, same answer, although they'd be a play in Milwaukee.
So all that being said, if we stay as a 4, expect a trip to Seattle or Providence. Even as a 5. If we win our next 4 games and get back into consideration for a 3, you could see Milwaukee or Cleveland as a possibility, but I'd put it a low one simply because I think we're far enough behind both Wisconsin and Michigan currently.
As for region placement, it's a complete crapshoot. All depends on who the #1 seed is. Auburn should be a shoo-in for Atlanta, unless they lose a couple and it ends up being Duke. Assuming it's Auburn, Duke should go to Newark. That would leave San Francisco and Indy for the other 2. The other 2 are going to come from Houston and an SEC team, or 2 SEC teams. The overall 3 will go to Indy, the overall 4 will go to San Fran, or they could just flat-out send Houston to SF no matter what, which would make travel easier for Bama/Tenn/Florida to Indy. Would the committee avoid putting us with Bama or Auburn because we played them? They probably wouldn't care because that's a potential 3rd round game and they don't look ahead like that.
Confused yet? I'll be here all day.
