Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Tonight, it's the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (14-15; 7-11) visiting Mackey Arena on Senior night to take on the #18-ranked Purdue Boilermakers (20-9; 12-6) in the final home game for Caleb Furst. Tip is scheduled for approximately 7:00 pm (Eastern time) with television coverage on Peacock. This is the second game bewteen these two teams this season, as Purdue won at Rutgers back on January 9, 68-50.
Projected Starting Line-ups:
Rutgers - Dylan Grant, Lathan Sommerville, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, and Jeremiah Williams
Purdue - Trey Kaufman-Renn, Caleb Furst, CJ Cox, Fletcher Loyer, and Braden Smith
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Rutgers has continued to battle inconsistency all season long, and they have been competitive these past few weeks, but it's too late in the season to make any big difference in the conference standings. Rutgers lost vs. Oregon last month and rebounded with a road win against Washington. Next, they collected a home win against USC last week but failed to convert a big upset opportunity with a narrow 84-82 road loss against Michigan on Thursday.
Dylan Harper has been a huge threat in Big Ten play, collecting at least 20 points in three of his past six games. The freshman guard scored 25 against USC and has recorded an average of 19.3 PPG on the season. Ace Bailey scored 18 in the recent win vs. Washington. The freshman guard has posted an average of 18.2 PPG on 46.5% shooting. Lathan Somerville scored 17 points against Michigan on Thursday. The freshman center has been efficient, shooting at least 50% in four of his past five games, and is averaging 8 PPG. Jordan Derrick comes off the bench. The junior guard has posted an average of 5.9 PPG on 36% shooting.
Rutgers is 69th overall in the KenPom ratings, 51st in offensive efficiency and 115th defensively. They play at an above-average pace, currently with an adjusted tempo rating of 103rd. Rutgers is averaging 76.9 points on the season, ranking them 98th. The Scarlet Knights have given up 84 or more points in four of their past five clashes and are yielding an average of 76.5 points, placing them 305th overall.
Purdue is currently 16th overall in the KenPom ratings, 10th offensively and 51st defensively. Adjusted tempo has the Boilers rated 294th for pace of play.
The game earlier in the season turned into more of a battle of possessions where Purdue methodically wore down an inefficient Rutgers squad, with Dylan Harper still not at his best from a previous illness. The Boilers did not shoot very well themselves from long-range, only converting four of 24 attempts from beyond the arc. This game could be much different, as the games in Mackey Arena have generally been higher scoring than expected, and both teams defensive shortcomings (in different areas) could play a factor in that. Rutgers is more than capable of scoring, especially with two freshmen expected to be NBA lottery picks in Harper and Bailey - they can score in a variety of ways and can open up avenues for the rest of the Scarlet Knights. Add to that the fact that Purdue is outside the Top 350 at defending the rim and is dead-last in the conference in opponent 2-point percentage (58.8%) during league play.
Purdue, however, is likely to shoot better at home this time around, especially coming off an effective game against one of the conference's better defensive teams in UCLA. The Boilers scored 76 points with an effective field goal percentage of 62.5% against UCLA. If they could do that against a Top-20 defense that plays at a sluggish tempo, if they execute tonight, one could imagine an even better performance against an up-tempo Rutgers squad that is 247th in the country in opponent eFG% (52.3%).
Purdue has the overall edge, but this is certainly a dangerous Rutgers team with some individual weapons, especially if the Boilers allow the Scarlet Knights to get some momentum and confidence. Purdue needs another strong, intense focused effort, as Rutgers has shown a tendency to take some ill-advised shots or turn the ball over. Conversely, if the Boilers lose focus and allow the Scarlet Knights to create with turnovers and get in transition, they could be in for a tough battle all night. Purdue could also use the same effort/production on the glass as it had during the second half against UCLA.
Some thoughts from Matt Painter on Rutgers -
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Just across the board, not just those two guys [Haper and Bailey].....they're dangerous in transition, they're dangerous in the half court....they get into iso's.....their ball/screen attack...but very very good pieces."
On defense and dealing with lack of rim protection -
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It's hard to get that charge call nowadays.....they're just not going to give you that.....but we still have to try and keep guys out of the paint.....and also, just getting better resistance on the ball......If you give no resistance on the ball, and they're just direct drives, it's really hard for the help to be there."
On Myles Colvin getting in earlier both halves against UCLA and thoughts about production from players - "
I thought he played better the game [at Indiana], so I put him in earlier.....He did some good things for us."
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We always emphasize taking good shots, and when you miss them, don't let it bother you. You did a good thing, and the percentages will weigh out. If you take good shots, and they aren't going in, don't let it bother you."
A top three conference finish is still a possibility.....but first things first. The Boilers righted things a little with a win against UCLA. Can they start building more momentum toward the post-season with another good step against the freshmen-led Scarlet Knights? We shall see, starting in a couple of hours.
Boiler up, my friends.