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Purdue vs. Missouri: Look Ahead & Predictions

JohnnyDoeBoiler

JohnnyDoeBoiler

All-American
Sep 23, 2013
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West Lafayette
Purdue's Key Players:
Elijah Sindelar: 28/44 283 yards 2TD 3INT
David Blough: 18/26 122 yards 0TD 0INT
Rondale Moore: 4 rush 128 yards 1TD 14 rec 125 yards 2TD
Jared Sparks: 7 rec 87 yards 0TD
DJ Knox: 28 rush 229 yards 2 TD
Markus Bailey: 14 total tackles 2.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Lorenzo Neal: 6 total tackles 1 TFL 1 sack
Cornel Jones: 15 total tackles 6.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Antonio Blackmon: 11 total tackles 1 PD

Missouri Key Players:
Drew Lock: 52/70 687 yards 8TD 0INT
Emmanuel Hall: 14 rec 342 yards 3TD
Damarea Crockett: 31 rush 115 yards 1TD 3 rec 50 yards
Terez Hall: 11 total tackles 1 TFL 1 sack
Cale Garrett: 12 total tackles

Team Stats:
Purdue:
0-2
Total Offense: 23.0 ppg (96th of 130)
Total Defense: 25.5 ppg (79th of 130)
Passing Offense: 202.5 ypg (88th)
Rushing Offense: 271.5 ypg (24th)
Total Offense: 474 ypg (38th)
First Downs: 42 (70th)
Penalties per game: 8 for 90 yards (98th)
TO's: 5 (106th)
Red Zone Offense: 71.4% overall (108th)
Red Zone Defense: 88.9% (77th) Opponents are 8/9 (3 fg's 5 TD)
Time of Possession: 28 mpg (92nd)

Missouri:
2-0
Total Offense: 45.5 (24th)
Total Defense: 13.5 (26th)
Passing Offense: 396 ypg (3rd)
Rushing Offense: 183.5 ypg (59th)
Total Offense: 579.5 ypg (10th)
First Downs: 59 (12th)
Penalties per game: 6 for 62 yards (47th)
TO's: 1 (7th)
Red Zone Offense: 100% (1st)
Red Zone Defense: 100% (90th) Only 3 total attempts
Time of Possession: 33 mpg (22nd)

ESPN's FPI places Missouri as a 71% favorite
Current Spread (9/11) is Purdue +6 (Updated 9/13/18)
Purdue is a +190 money line
Over/Under 65.5

Outlook:
With Missouri's high powered offense but still some what unknown on defense given the poor quality of opponents, look for Purdue to try and establish the stable of running backs in Knox, Jones, and Fuller to try to control the ball and limit the total number of touches Lock and the offense get. If Purdue can establish the ground game and force Missouri to play 7 to 8 in the box, Purdue appears to have the athletes and speed to take advantage of one on one match-ups along with getting Moore in space against LB's and S's.

On defense, Purdue will play a mostly nickel defense and hopefully Simeon Smiley is able to return from his laceration and concussion from week one. The issue of a non-existent pass rush in week one could mean Lock gets more and more time if Purdue struggles to cover those who aren't Emmanuel Hall in one on one situations. Purdue will likely try to bracket Hall with a LB/DB underneath and a safety rolling over the top but Hall is a top flight WR and combined with Lock (arguably two top 15 picks in next years draft), Purdue needs to cause pressure to get Lock's feet moving and get his eyes away from the side of the field Hall is on.

Special teams appear to be a push but Purdue may have the advantage in the return game with Moore. Look for Moore to get plenty of opportunities in the return game to hopefully create some momentum.

Prediction:
Purdue may need to give up yards within the 20's on defense and keep Missouri players in front until they get to the 20 and lock down to give up FG's rather than TD's to win this game. Missouri has big play ability, especially with Hall and Lock being elite in the country for making plays. If Sindelar can't find the magic he had in the final 3 games of the 2017 season, Purdue may end up losing this game in the range of 14-17 points. If Purdue can find the rhythm with a solid running game and combine that with the play action/screen game to keep Missouri off balance and control the clock, Purdue has a chance to win. That being said:

Missouri: 36
Purdue: 24
 
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JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
At this point, no news. He was placed in the concussion protocol during the game against NU. With the two true freshman being placed in to the 2 deep this week, my guess is not good.
Click to expand...
Yeah and that is what forced us in to man coverage I think more than anything else. He is a huge part of the defense to say the least.

And thanks for the info in your first post.
 
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Ignacious McNutt said:
Yeah and that is what forced us in to man coverage I think more than anything else. He is a huge part of the defense to say the least.

And thanks for the info in your first post.
Click to expand...
No problem! I started doing it last year for basketball and thought a lot of people enjoyed it and got some pieces of information that they could look at while watching the game to think about.
 
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Missouri has to show me.
We'll come from behind and control the 4th qtr while NOT committing any silly mental mistakes.
Purdue 27
Missouri 21

Expect a turnover or two for each team with the ball being in the air a lot.
 
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I agree with JohnnyDoe. I hate to say it, but my gut is telling me Missouri wins this by 2 scores.

Purdue's offense was prone to turnovers in the first two games, and it just hasn't been as good as I thought it would be. The defense continues to be a work in progress, but can they contain a high-powered passing attack without much pressure up front? Hopefully, the 4th quarter interception and sacks vs. EMU are an indication that it is at least getting more aggressive.

On the other hand, maybe this is the game where the Legend of Eli Sindelar is reborn...
 
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JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
Purdue's Key Players:
Elijah Sindelar: 28/44 283 yards 2TD 3INT
David Blough: 18/26 122 yards 0TD 0INT
Rondale Moore: 4 rush 128 yards 1TD 14 rec 125 yards 2TD
Jared Sparks: 7 rec 87 yards 0TD
DJ Knox: 28 rush 229 yards 2 TD
Markus Bailey: 14 total tackles 2.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Lorenzo Neal: 6 total tackles 1 TFL 1 sack
Cornel Jones: 15 total tackles 6.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Antonio Blackmon: 11 total tackles 1 PD

Missouri Key Players:
Drew Lock: 52/70 687 yards 8TD 0INT
Emmanuel Hall: 14 rec 342 yards 3TD
Damarea Crockett: 31 rush 115 yards 1TD 3 rec 50 yards
Terez Hall: 11 total tackles 1 TFL 1 sack
Cale Garrett: 12 total tackles

Team Stats:
Purdue:
0-2
Total Offense: 23.0 ppg (96th of 130)
Total Defense: 25.5 ppg (79th of 130)
Passing Offense: 202.5 ypg (88th)
Rushing Offense: 271.5 ypg (24th)
Total Offense: 474 ypg (38th)
First Downs: 42 (70th)
Penalties per game: 8 for 90 yards (98th)
TO's: 5 (106th)
Red Zone Offense: 71.4% overall (108th)
Red Zone Defense: 88.9% (77th) Opponents are 8/9 (3 fg's 5 TD)
Time of Possession: 28 mpg (92nd)

Missouri:
2-0
Total Offense: 45.5 (24th)
Total Defense: 13.5 (26th)
Passing Offense: 396 ypg (3rd)
Rushing Offense: 183.5 ypg (59th)
Total Offense: 579.5 ypg (10th)
First Downs: 59 (12th)
Penalties per game: 6 for 62 yards (47th)
TO's: 1 (7th)
Red Zone Offense: 100% (1st)
Red Zone Defense: 100% (90th) Only 3 total attempts
Time of Possession: 33 mpg (22nd)

ESPN's FPI places Missouri as a 71% favorite
Current Spread (9/11) is Purdue +6.5 (Updated 9/12/18)

Outlook:
With Missouri's high powered offense but still some what unknown on defense given the poor quality of opponents, look for Purdue to try and establish the stable of running backs in Knox, Jones, and Fuller to try to control the ball and limit the total number of touches Lock and the offense get. If Purdue can establish the ground game and force Missouri to play 7 to 8 in the box, Purdue appears to have the athletes and speed to take advantage of one on one match-ups along with getting Moore in space against LB's and S's.

On defense, Purdue will play a mostly nickel defense and hopefully Simeon Smiley is able to return from his laceration and concussion from week one. The issue of a non-existent pass rush in week one could mean Lock gets more and more time if Purdue struggles to cover those who aren't Emmanuel Hall in one on one situations. Purdue will likely try to bracket Hall with a LB/DB underneath and a safety rolling over the top but Hall is a top flight WR and combined with Lock (arguably two top 15 picks in next years draft), Purdue needs to cause pressure to get Lock's feet moving and get his eyes away from the side of the field Hall is on.

Special teams appear to be a push but Purdue may have the advantage in the return game with Moore. Look for Moore to get plenty of opportunities in the return game to hopefully create some momentum.

Prediction:
Purdue may need to give up yards within the 20's on defense and keep Missouri players in front until they get to the 20 and lock down to give up FG's rather than TD's to win this game. Missouri has big play ability, especially with Hall and Lock being elite in the country for making plays. If Sindelar can't find the magic he had in the final 3 games of the 2017 season, Purdue may end up losing this game in the range of 14-17 points. If Purdue can find the rhythm with a solid running game and combine that with the play action/screen game to keep Missouri off balance and control the clock, Purdue has a chance to win. That being said:

Missouri: 36
Purdue: 24
Click to expand...
Purdue wins.
 
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ImRonBurgandy? said:
Jones already has 6.5 TFL? If that is undeed correct, thats pretty badass.
Click to expand...
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/39

There are some really good pieces that started to show up last weekend. The key will be getting those pieces put together and hopefully not allowing the weak parts of the chain do Purdue in this season. Last year Brohm was able to hide the weak links for the most part....this year it's been TO's, penalties, and sustained effort. I think those things eventually get cleaned up but against arguably the best QB and WR for a defense that struggles to stop the pass due to the DB's being a bit behind where they should be spells a long day for Purdue.
 
rgarlitz said:
I agree with JohnnyDoe. I hate to say it, but my gut is telling me Missouri wins this by 2 scores.

Purdue's offense was prone to turnovers in the first two games, and it just hasn't been as good as I thought it would be. The defense continues to be a work in progress, but can they contain a high-powered passing attack without much pressure up front? Hopefully, the 4th quarter interception and sacks vs. EMU are an indication that it is at least getting more aggressive.

On the other hand, maybe this is the game where the Legend of Eli Sindelar is reborn...
Click to expand...

If Purdue fixes the mental errors, they can win by two scores. There shouldn’t be a monsoon so 5 fumbles is unlikely to repeat. Two game ending really bad penalties so you know that is going to be a point of emphasis. I expect Moore to get back over 150 all purpose yards. I expect Sindelar to improve as well. Purdue is dealing with a lack of talent and a lot of youth. They will continue to improve. Should win this game. If not... I will be very unhappy. Got to be no worse than 3-3 going into OSU
 
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Missouri has a very good qb. Purdue has to score lots of points in this one. I expect Purdue to cut down on stupid penalties. Brohm should have been yelling about this all week.
 
Summy1 said:
Missouri has a very good qb. Purdue has to score lots of points in this one. I expect Purdue to cut down on stupid penalties. Brohm should have been yelling about this all week.
Click to expand...
No doubt we have to play pretty much an error free game to win this. Hopefully get a couple of TO'S......the thing that scares me.......we can't get any pressure from our front four and Lock eats us alive in the tune of a 34-27 type of game.....we better disguise some great BLITZ packages and put some pressure on him or it's 0-3.
 
Summy1 said:
Missouri has a very good qb. Purdue has to score lots of points in this one. I expect Purdue to cut down on stupid penalties. Brohm should have been yelling about this all week.
Click to expand...
Lock has exactly the same number of attempts this year as DB/ES combined with like 270 more yards.
 
Sorry, I'm just going off of betting trends and general info. I don't bet Purdue games cause i like to remove my home bias out of it.

Btw, I don't want that to happen but that's where the data leads me.
 
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Boilerscuz said:
Sorry, I'm just going off of betting trends and general info. I don't bet Purdue games cause i like to remove my home bias out of it.

Btw, I don't want that to happen but that's where the data leads me.
Click to expand...
if Mizzou goes Trips right or Trips left, it'll be a long night.
 
Boilerscuz said:
Sorry, I'm just going off of betting trends and general info. I don't bet Purdue games cause i like to remove my home bias out of it.

Btw, I don't want that to happen but that's where the data leads me.
Click to expand...
What did you say before last season's game vs. Missouri? Same or worse score for Purdue? We're the best team Mizzou has played so far. We're playing at home. We will beat Mizzou.
 
SDBoiler1 said:
What did you say before last season's game vs. Missouri? Same or worse score for Purdue? We're the best team Mizzou has played so far. We're playing at home. We will beat Mizzou.
Click to expand...
This. I think Brohm lit a fire under the team this week and is shaking things up because frankly, we can't do any worse.

Weather is supposed to be good so I look for us to air it out more and this will be a high scoring game.
 
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Boilerscuz said:
I'll go with 37-13 Missouri. Prove me wrong Boilers.
Click to expand...

Granted, Purdue's offense hasn't been as dynamic as expected. But I think we'll do better than 13. Maybe this will be the break-out game. My bigger concern is holding Missouri's offense below the mid-30s.
 
Looking at the updated 2 Deep on Our Lads, you'll see the future of the program starting to emerge...especially on defense.

Missouri Depth Chart Analysis:
Defense: The reserves are full of what would be considered Brohm recruits. Accounting for true freshman, red shirt freshman, and sophomores there are 7 of those players backing up the current starters. Taking in to account the starters as well, there are 12 Brohm recruits in the starting 2 deep this week against Missouri.

Starters that are in their first or second year of college who are starting Saturday include: DE Giovanni Reviere, LB Cornel Jones, LB Derrick Barnes, and CB Kenneth Major. Tim Cason has lost his starting role as a CB due to poor performance over the first two games in favor of Kenneth Major who has continued his good fall camp run in to the season. Elijah Ball will also be seeing his first playing time as he continues to learn and advance in favor of the established Navon Mosley who has also struggled in the first two weeks and injured Simeon Smiley (concussion/laceration).

The increase in underclassman's playing time in the defensive backfield may be two-fold due to Missouri's often 4 and 5 wide receiver sets and Purdue needing to get more athletic to handle the increased speed from Missouri. The issue with this, however, comes in the form of decreased ability to get to the QB with a suspect defensive line. When Purdue started blitzing more LB's (Cornel Jones 2.5 sacks and 3/5 TFL), you saw more success from the defense but penalties and poor positions (Tim Cason being beaten twice deep easily) led to EMU's success in the passing game. Purdue's defense may, at some point move away toward starting 3 freshman or red shirt freshman if they prove themselves against what is likely the best passing offense Purdue will see all season given Purdue's struggles up to this point in the season have been against the pass.

Offense:
The shifting on the offensive line is a huge move for the coaching staff as they move Shane Evans in at left guard along with Matt McCann to start at the right tackle position. This obviously pushes DJ Edwards out from his LG position but could push him to RG to replace Shane Evans there. The offensive line would then look like:
LT: Grant Hermanns
LG: Shane Evans
C: Barron
RG: DJ Edwards/Yacoobi
RT: Matt McCann

The only RB to not put the ball on the turf up this point in the season has been Tario Fuller and the staff has said he is the most complete back they have but due to his off season injuries and surgeries, they are trying to be very smart about how often they use him. That may go out the window with the amount of times Jones and Knox have both coughed the ball up. I am guessing if Worship was fully healthy, there would be a steady rotation of Fuller and Worship in place of Jones and Knox given both have relatively low accounts of fumbling over their careers.

The big question again this week, however, is who will get the start at QB. My money is on Sindelar given the fact that Missouri again has a suspect defense against the pass and Purdue will need to keep pace with Missouri's offense. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Blough start and attempt to use the running game and his ability to run the read option to slow the tempo down to start the game and attempt to get Missouri out of rhythm.
 
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JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
Looking at the updated 2 Deep on Our Lads, you'll see the future of the program starting to emerge...especially on defense.

Missouri Depth Chart Analysis:
Defense: The reserves are full of what would be considered Brohm recruits. Accounting for true freshman, red shirt freshman, and sophomores there are 7 of those players backing up the current starters. Taking in to account the starters as well, there are 12 Brohm recruits in the starting 2 deep this week against Missouri.

Starters that are in their first or second year of college who are starting Saturday include: DE Giovanni Reviere, LB Cornel Jones, LB Derrick Barnes, and CB Kenneth Major. Tim Cason has lost his starting role as a CB due to poor performance over the first two games in favor of Kenneth Major who has continued his good fall camp run in to the season. Elijah Ball will also be seeing his first playing time as he continues to learn and advance in favor of the established Navon Mosley who has also struggled in the first two weeks and injured Simeon Smiley (concussion/laceration).

The increase in underclassman's playing time in the defensive backfield may be two-fold due to Missouri's often 4 and 5 wide receiver sets and Purdue needing to get more athletic to handle the increased speed from Missouri. The issue with this, however, comes in the form of decreased ability to get to the QB with a suspect defensive line. When Purdue started blitzing more LB's (Cornel Jones 2.5 sacks and 3/5 TFL), you saw more success from the defense but penalties and poor positions (Tim Cason being beaten twice deep easily) led to EMU's success in the passing game. Purdue's defense may, at some point move away toward starting 3 freshman or red shirt freshman if they prove themselves against what is likely the best passing offense Purdue will see all season given Purdue's struggles up to this point in the season have been against the pass.

Offense:
The shifting on the offensive line is a huge move for the coaching staff as they move Shane Evans in at left guard along with Matt McCann to start at the right tackle position. This obviously pushes DJ Edwards out from his LG position but could push him to RG to replace Shane Evans there. The offensive line would then look like:
LT: Grant Hermanns
LG: Shane Evans
C: Barron
RG: DJ Edwards/Yacoobi
RT: Matt McCann

The only RB to not put the ball on the turf up this point in the season has been Tario Fuller and the staff has said he is the most complete back they have but due to his off season injuries and surgeries, they are trying to be very smart about how often they use him. That may go out the window with the amount of times Jones and Knox have both coughed the ball up. I am guessing if Worship was fully healthy, there would be a steady rotation of Fuller and Worship in place of Jones and Knox given both have relatively low accounts of fumbling over their careers.

The big question again this week, however, is who will get the start at QB. My money is on Sindelar given the fact that Missouri again has a suspect defense against the pass and Purdue will need to keep pace with Missouri's offense. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Blough start and attempt to use the running game and his ability to run the read option to slow the tempo down to start the game and attempt to get Missouri out of rhythm.
Click to expand...

Good analysis here; thanks for posting. With respect to running backs: I think the staff should continue to get DJ Knox 10-15 carries per game. I love how Brohm has used since the beginning of 2017. DJ just has a knack for finding daylight, and he can really accelerate in the open field. He reminds me of the two Akeems --- Shavers and Hunt. But, you're right. Ball security has to be a priority.
 
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I look for Purdue to be more balanced in both rushing and passing this week to control the clock. Limit turnovers or better yet win the turnover margin, and we win. I do not know any details about Mizzou other than they have a solid QB & WR. Stuff their running game (a challenge for the Defense) and D. Lock will have to throw, pressure him and get a few intercepts, passes knocked down or tipped and we'll be fine. Should be a good game with a close finish. Mental mistakes might be the difference. We'll see.

I love Drew Brees and his arm cannot win all the games all the time. In fact, the more he has to pass the more N.O. seems to lose. N.O. defense was attrocious that last game.
 
JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
Looking at the updated 2 Deep on Our Lads, you'll see the future of the program starting to emerge...especially on defense.

Missouri Depth Chart Analysis:
Defense: The reserves are full of what would be considered Brohm recruits. Accounting for true freshman, red shirt freshman, and sophomores there are 7 of those players backing up the current starters. Taking in to account the starters as well, there are 12 Brohm recruits in the starting 2 deep this week against Missouri.

Starters that are in their first or second year of college who are starting Saturday include: DE Giovanni Reviere, LB Cornel Jones, LB Derrick Barnes, and CB Kenneth Major. Tim Cason has lost his starting role as a CB due to poor performance over the first two games in favor of Kenneth Major who has continued his good fall camp run in to the season. Elijah Ball will also be seeing his first playing time as he continues to learn and advance in favor of the established Navon Mosley who has also struggled in the first two weeks and injured Simeon Smiley (concussion/laceration).

The increase in underclassman's playing time in the defensive backfield may be two-fold due to Missouri's often 4 and 5 wide receiver sets and Purdue needing to get more athletic to handle the increased speed from Missouri. The issue with this, however, comes in the form of decreased ability to get to the QB with a suspect defensive line. When Purdue started blitzing more LB's (Cornel Jones 2.5 sacks and 3/5 TFL), you saw more success from the defense but penalties and poor positions (Tim Cason being beaten twice deep easily) led to EMU's success in the passing game. Purdue's defense may, at some point move away toward starting 3 freshman or red shirt freshman if they prove themselves against what is likely the best passing offense Purdue will see all season given Purdue's struggles up to this point in the season have been against the pass.

Offense:
The shifting on the offensive line is a huge move for the coaching staff as they move Shane Evans in at left guard along with Matt McCann to start at the right tackle position. This obviously pushes DJ Edwards out from his LG position but could push him to RG to replace Shane Evans there. The offensive line would then look like:
LT: Grant Hermanns
LG: Shane Evans
C: Barron
RG: DJ Edwards/Yacoobi
RT: Matt McCann

The only RB to not put the ball on the turf up this point in the season has been Tario Fuller and the staff has said he is the most complete back they have but due to his off season injuries and surgeries, they are trying to be very smart about how often they use him. That may go out the window with the amount of times Jones and Knox have both coughed the ball up. I am guessing if Worship was fully healthy, there would be a steady rotation of Fuller and Worship in place of Jones and Knox given both have relatively low accounts of fumbling over their careers.

The big question again this week, however, is who will get the start at QB. My money is on Sindelar given the fact that Missouri again has a suspect defense against the pass and Purdue will need to keep pace with Missouri's offense. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Blough start and attempt to use the running game and his ability to run the read option to slow the tempo down to start the game and attempt to get Missouri out of rhythm.
Click to expand...
Edwards will start at RG and Sindelar at QB.
 
JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
Purdue's Key Players:
Elijah Sindelar: 28/44 283 yards 2TD 3INT
David Blough: 18/26 122 yards 0TD 0INT
Rondale Moore: 4 rush 128 yards 1TD 14 rec 125 yards 2TD
Jared Sparks: 7 rec 87 yards 0TD
DJ Knox: 28 rush 229 yards 2 TD
Markus Bailey: 14 total tackles 2.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Lorenzo Neal: 6 total tackles 1 TFL 1 sack
Cornel Jones: 15 total tackles 6.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Antonio Blackmon: 11 total tackles 1 PD

Missouri Key Players:
Drew Lock: 52/70 687 yards 8TD 0INT
Emmanuel Hall: 14 rec 342 yards 3TD
Damarea Crockett: 31 rush 115 yards 1TD 3 rec 50 yards
Terez Hall: 11 total tackles 1 TFL 1 sack
Cale Garrett: 12 total tackles

Team Stats:
Purdue:
0-2
Total Offense: 23.0 ppg (96th of 130)
Total Defense: 25.5 ppg (79th of 130)
Passing Offense: 202.5 ypg (88th)
Rushing Offense: 271.5 ypg (24th)
Total Offense: 474 ypg (38th)
First Downs: 42 (70th)
Penalties per game: 8 for 90 yards (98th)
TO's: 5 (106th)
Red Zone Offense: 71.4% overall (108th)
Red Zone Defense: 88.9% (77th) Opponents are 8/9 (3 fg's 5 TD)
Time of Possession: 28 mpg (92nd)

Missouri:
2-0
Total Offense: 45.5 (24th)
Total Defense: 13.5 (26th)
Passing Offense: 396 ypg (3rd)
Rushing Offense: 183.5 ypg (59th)
Total Offense: 579.5 ypg (10th)
First Downs: 59 (12th)
Penalties per game: 6 for 62 yards (47th)
TO's: 1 (7th)
Red Zone Offense: 100% (1st)
Red Zone Defense: 100% (90th) Only 3 total attempts
Time of Possession: 33 mpg (22nd)

ESPN's FPI places Missouri as a 71% favorite
Current Spread (9/11) is Purdue +6.5 (Updated 9/12/18)

Outlook:
With Missouri's high powered offense but still some what unknown on defense given the poor quality of opponents, look for Purdue to try and establish the stable of running backs in Knox, Jones, and Fuller to try to control the ball and limit the total number of touches Lock and the offense get. If Purdue can establish the ground game and force Missouri to play 7 to 8 in the box, Purdue appears to have the athletes and speed to take advantage of one on one match-ups along with getting Moore in space against LB's and S's.

On defense, Purdue will play a mostly nickel defense and hopefully Simeon Smiley is able to return from his laceration and concussion from week one. The issue of a non-existent pass rush in week one could mean Lock gets more and more time if Purdue struggles to cover those who aren't Emmanuel Hall in one on one situations. Purdue will likely try to bracket Hall with a LB/DB underneath and a safety rolling over the top but Hall is a top flight WR and combined with Lock (arguably two top 15 picks in next years draft), Purdue needs to cause pressure to get Lock's feet moving and get his eyes away from the side of the field Hall is on.

Special teams appear to be a push but Purdue may have the advantage in the return game with Moore. Look for Moore to get plenty of opportunities in the return game to hopefully create some momentum.

Prediction:
Purdue may need to give up yards within the 20's on defense and keep Missouri players in front until they get to the 20 and lock down to give up FG's rather than TD's to win this game. Missouri has big play ability, especially with Hall and Lock being elite in the country for making plays. If Sindelar can't find the magic he had in the final 3 games of the 2017 season, Purdue may end up losing this game in the range of 14-17 points. If Purdue can find the rhythm with a solid running game and combine that with the play action/screen game to keep Missouri off balance and control the clock, Purdue has a chance to win. That being said:

Missouri: 36
Purdue: 24
Click to expand...
The line has Mizzou favored by 6. I thought it would be more than that. What am I missing when I look at Mizzou? Is it just the opponents thus far that they have played that is making that a single digit line.? Their stats are pretty good.
Unfortunately, I am going with a mizzou win.....40-27 tigers.
 
MilwaukeeBoilerFan said:
I look for Purdue to be more balanced in both rushing and passing this week to control the clock. Limit turnovers or better yet win the turnover margin, and we win. I do not know any details about Mizzou other than they have a solid QB & WR. Stuff their running game (a challenge for the Defense) and D. Lock will have to throw, pressure him and get a few intercepts, passes knocked down or tipped and we'll be fine. Should be a good game with a close finish. Mental mistakes might be the difference. We'll see.

I love Drew Brees and his arm cannot win all the games all the time. In fact, the more he has to pass the more N.O. seems to lose. N.O. defense was attrocious that last game.
Click to expand...
Solid QB and WR is a total understatement. Lock is a Heisman candidate and likely the #1 overall pick next year in the NFL Draft. Their WR is likely a top 15-20 pick as well.
 
If Sparks keeps his foot in bounds Purdue beats EMU 26-17 and the line would be pick 'em
 
boilerdug said:
The line has Mizzou favored by 6. I thought it would be more than that. What am I missing when I look at Mizzou? Is it just the opponents thus far that they have played that is making that a single digit line.? Their stats are pretty good.
Unfortunately, I am going with a mizzou win.....40-27 tigers.
Click to expand...

Our running game has not been as explosive as we'd hoped. (Mizzou fan here.) There's some definite concerns among the Mizzou faitful, especially given that this is an experienced OL. But they've installed a newish offensive system and blocking schemes. There's hope they jell with time.

Looking forward to Saturday's game. Nervous as hell -- well, as nervous as I get over football. I'll never forget last year's beating. It was my (then) 3-year-old's first CFB game. We left at half. Ha. You'll have to forgive me if I hope we return the favor.
 
Unfortunately, I don't think we can stop their pass attack. EMU exploited our secondary. I think Lock totally lights us up. I think it is 35-17 Mizzou. I don't think we have time to go with Blough and be stagnant on offense for a quarter or more. He offers no deep ball threat and all opponents know it.
 
Let's not forget that this is not the NFL where there is a preseason. It takes at LEAST 2 games for coaches to see which kids are real and which ones are the pretenders. The should have an idea now of who is stepping up to compete and who isn't and that will allow them to scheme accordingly with a better understanding of where they're weak and where they're not. That's not atypical with a very young roster. These kids need to learn what it means to compete at the D1 level still. The biggest part of that lesson can only be conveyed by game experience, regardless of how good the coaches may be. You can't coach experience or maturity.
 
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